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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #21,721
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:08am Feb 3, 2012 9:08am
Did not do well this morning. Obviously funnymentals (love that word) were against me.

Question: Do most of you sit on the side line during these numbers or trading them?

Thanks,
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #21,722
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:16am Feb 3, 2012 9:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index soars to 56.8 Wow!!! US economy is getting healthier. QE3 now becomes less of a probability and more of a remote possibility. Hard to justify QE3 with these kinds of numbers, although I am sure the doves at the Fed will still be jawboning about it.
I don't see it as justifiable and it's not popular with the public. Election year too.... I'd bet it quietly sneaks in through the backdoor.

USA has to be number 1 in everything so I'm sure Benny and the Fed won't allow the ECB to have a bigger balance sheet

Hmmmmmm......Actually I should be crying instead of laughing.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #21,723
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:37am Feb 3, 2012 9:37am
Quoting Cgb
Did not do well this morning. Obviously funnymentals (love that word) were against me.

Question: Do most of you sit on the side line during these numbers or trading them?

Thanks,
I don't trade the report. I'm not good at trading and scalping stuff like this... FYI, I also trade daily charts.

I adjust positions I'm already in or have pending a day before the report, look at them again a few hours before the report in case I want to adjust anything else and then sit back, relax and enjoy the show.

I've had 2 SL orders hit, a trailing stop filled on an order I had already pulled half near my T1 target a few days ago and a limit order filled that is turning out to be a really nice trade so far today.

Although my account balance is slightly lower than it was when the day started, my account equity is about the same as it started today.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #21,724
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:53am Feb 3, 2012 9:53am
Quoting PipKiller
I don't trade the report. I'm not good at trading and scalping stuff like this... FYI, I also trade daily charts.

I adjust positions I'm already in or have pending a day before the report, look at them again a few hours before the report in case I want to adjust anything else and then sit back, relax and enjoy the show.

I've had 2 SL orders hit, a trailing stop filled on an order I had already pulled half near my T1 target a few days ago and a limit order filled that is turning out to be a really nice trade so far today.

Although my account...
Thanks for the feedback PipKiller. Still a newbie here and this was the first time I traded these numbers. As you said, I should have just sat back and watch the show. Live and learn...
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #21,725
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:04am Feb 3, 2012 10:04am
Quoting Cgb
Thanks for the feedback PipKiller. Still a newbie here and this was the first time I traded these numbers. As you said, I should have just sat back and watch the show. Live and learn...
I've been in your shoes. NFP is a nasty one to trade. Some do really well trading this one but I'm not one of them.

I liked Gopher's hedging strategy to lock in what he already had with E$ and $chf before the report came out.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #21,726
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:25am Feb 3, 2012 10:25am
Well folks, it looks like the trading day is pretty well done with. Barring any more good or bad news from Europe, I am inclined to think that price will just oscillate along sideways to close around the current levels.

Looks like both the rising and falling channels are still being respected on an H1 candle close basis. I'm calling for more E/U downside come Monday. Greece is just as good as cooked.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,727
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:33am Feb 3, 2012 10:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well folks, it looks like the trading day is pretty well done with. Barring any more good or bad news from Europe, I am inclined to think that price will just oscillate along sideways to close around the current levels.

Looks like both the rising and falling channels are still being respected on an H1 candle close basis. I'm calling for more E/U downside come Monday. Greece is just as good as cooked.

Attachment
Nope.... Obummer is flapping his gums right now about the jobs reports.....

Should be good for another 30 pip drop
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #21,728
  • Edited 11:56am Feb 3, 2012 11:29am | Edited 11:56am
Short earlier Close 1%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E15.png Size: 33 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #21,729
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:52am Feb 3, 2012 11:52am
Quoting FXMindset
Close 1%
Close 1% on my long again
Looking the tired candle for short now...bad internet connection
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E15.png Size: 32 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #21,730
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:57am Feb 3, 2012 11:57am
Hey guys,

I have got a doubt.

Today we saw fantastic datas for USD. That means, USD might strengthen in coming weeks. Given the condition of Greece, it is most likely to happen. Okay, now comes my question. If USD strengthens, will it give better scenario for the FED to print more money by easily off-setting inflation (which might not have been possible with weaker USD) ???
I mean, can they print more dollars with less worry about inflation since USD has strengthened??

ADD: i dont mean FED will print, but in case they opt to go for it.
  • #21,731
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:02pm Feb 3, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting FXMindset
Close 1% on my long again
Looking the tired candle for short now...bad internet connection
short again @ 1.3140 SL 1.3160 Tp : 13100
Note : Dont follow me
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #21,732
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:09pm Feb 3, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting FX Tsunami
Hey guys,

I have got a doubt.

Today we saw fantastic datas for USD. That means, USD might strengthen in coming weeks. Given the condition of Greece, it is most likely to happen. Okay, now comes my question. If USD strengthens, will it give better scenario for the FED to print more money by easily off-setting inflation (which might not have been possible with weaker USD) ???
I mean, can they print more dollars with less worry about inflation since USD has strengthened??

ADD: i dont mean FED will print, but in case they opt to go for it....
Maybe I'm not understanding your question but I'll explain something about inflation to you.

Inflation occurs when value of currency is low and economic production is high or growing.
USD is historically low and economic production is growing, so that means there is a higher risk of inflation now. Therefore printing more USDs or keeping rates super low for too long will further increase the risk of inflation. This means that QE3 is not justifiable right now. It might have been yesterday but not today or for the next little while unless we get some other econ data which suggests the economy is taking a turn for the worse.

ADD: This is a chart of the USD index for the last three weeks. Does it look weaker or stronger?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx-h1.jpg Size: 101 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,733
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:15pm Feb 3, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting FXMindset
short again @ 1.3140 SL 1.3160 Tp : 13100
Note : Dont follow me
Don't worry... I won't
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,734
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:18pm Feb 3, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Don't worry... I won't
Maybe would stop out 0,5%
Need to sleep now,see ya PT
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #21,735
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:22pm Feb 3, 2012 12:22pm
Today NFP trading action was same as last 3. US Data released good as usual and booked profit by shorting E/U from the S/D level ..

A) Short : 1.3180 - 1.3080
B) Long: 1.3110 - 1.3145

Closed All...take care.
  • #21,736
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:23pm Feb 3, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting FXMindset
Maybe would stop out 0,5%
Need to sleep now,see ya PT
Have a great weekend FX. Ciao!!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,737
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:24pm Feb 3, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting rekon67
Today NFP trading action was same as last 3. US Data released good as usual and booked profit by shorting E/U from the S/D level ..

A) Short : 1.3180 - 1.3080
B) Long: 1.3110 - 1.3145

Closed All...take care.
Hey welcome home Rekon. Have a great weekend
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,738
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:27pm Feb 3, 2012 12:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Maybe I'm not understanding your question but I'll explain something about inflation to you.

Inflation occurs when value of currency is low and economic production is high or growing.
USD is historically low and economic production is growing, so that means there is a higher risk of inflation now. Therefore printing more USDs or keeping rates super low for too long will further increase the risk of inflation. This means that QE3 is not justifiable right now. It might have been yesterday but not today or for the next little while unless we get...
Okay. You answered the question which i was about to ask. Which was "Do FED really need QE3?" Now, i got the answer for that.

I should have asked in general.

Consider a situation like this: A country is on the verge of weakness or something and desperately need to print more money. But like today, some datas proved to be better for the economy. But still, the country need to print atleast half of what they thought earlier to the data was released. Now, what ever is the case printing devalues the currency. Without a positive data, they might have printed money whch cause an inflation say, 1%. If suppose, With currency appreciating in the market and they print money, will it cause lesser inflation. less than 1% ???

I think i have complicated. Anyway, if you could get me i would be happy
  • #21,739
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:39pm Feb 3, 2012 12:39pm
To resume down trend we need a 200 pip bear candle next week for a day ... currently forming indecision.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.png Size: 55 KB
  • #21,740
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:44pm Feb 3, 2012 12:44pm
Quoting FX Tsunami
Okay. You answered the question which i was about to ask. Which was "Do FED really need QE3?" Now, i got the answer for that.

I should have asked in general.

Consider a situation like this: A country is on the verge of weakness or something and desperately need to print more money. But like today, some datas proved to be better for the economy. But still, the country need to print atleast half of what they thought earlier to the data was released. Now, what ever is the case printing devalues the currency. Without a positive data, they might...
Okay I see what you mean now.
For the answer, you have to look at inflation's ugly sister... deflation.
Deflation occurs when the economy contracts heavily and consumers stop spending, creating a surplus of goods for sale and a shortage of people to buy them while interest rates are high or at least too high to entice consumers to borrow money to purchase stuff and/or businesses to borrow money to grow their business, etc etc.
So, the central bank lowers interest rates (also known as the overnight rate). Once a CB has lowered their rates as much as possible, the next step is to purchase sovereign bonds on the secondary market to drive down the bond rates so that banks have nowhere to put their money for a good return, so instead of putting it on deposit at the central bank or investing it in sovereign bonds, they lend it to consumers and corporations which in turn is supposed to stimulate the economy (theoretically). This is what the FED is trying to do and it seems to be working somewhat. However, the Fed also has a mandate to keep inflation at or below 2% so as soon as the inflation starts to rise, they have no choice but to either raise interest rates, or shrink their balance sheets by dumping sovereign bonds that they hold on to the secondary market where they will be traded at a higher yield thereby driving the bond rates up a bit. It is a very tricky balance.

So the simple answer to your question is NO. They will not print more money just because the risk of inflation is lower. They will only print more if the economy worsens. As long as the economy is improving, they have to be very careful to make sure they keep inflation below their mandated target.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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