EurAnalysis

View on euro 2/2/2012..watching ascending triangle pattern very closely from now...

Mark down the benchmarks of the main Asset Classes so you can see the changes... At least you are moving to the stage where you are looking where the money is flowing. I was away since noon so I was not watching. I will be around on Thursday to answer your questions. You are doing fine.

Research and Analytics


Client FX Question 02/01/2012
"Hi guys,
How about going long EURCHF with a stop bid a little ABOVE the current market, in case SNB intervenes?
It is a new month, and 1.2000 is close..."
Thanks for the question, a couple of points from our perspective:

1. EUR/CHF is essentially not a free floating currency at this time due to the SNB intervention threat at holding EUR/CHF above 1.2000
2. A 'stop bid', as you note, above current levels (buy limit order) would not be the best approach if we were getting long based solely on SNB interention. Your order would be triggered and you would be filled at the next price - presumably 100-200 pips higher.
3. For us - the complete lack of wave structure or any component of Inter-Market Analysis within the IPA Pyramid - offers us little to work with.
4. Lastly, monetary authorities tend to view markets with a longer term view than market participants who agonize over every small move. Very significant losses can be incurred at a time which central bankers consider relatively stable. A move below 1.2000 for a short period of time may be viewed with indifference by the SNB. Case in point, USD/JPY dropped to 3-month lows last week after a big spike higher earlier in the week - as of now - still no sign of the BoJ - traders who went long USD/JPY expecting the BoJ to ride to the rescue are licking their wounds right now.

So - just my 2 cents. There are many ways to determine logical trade set-ups - however, within our framework of the IPA Pyramid - longs in EUR/CHF do not work for us at present. -DF-

http://www.forexpros.com/rates-bonds...advanced-chart

Good Night All...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...=c&a=2&w=5&v=s

February 1, 2011
Some Good News For Those of Us Who Are Sick of the Corruption
At some point someone will talk... and that's when things will get interesting.

The last four years have been something of a high-water mark for corruption in the US. Whether it's Solyndra, Congress's insider trading, MF Global, the countless pork spending bills from Congress, or any number of the other hundred or so incidents that have made decent ordinary people outraged, we've definitely entered a period in which everyone knows the deal: the power elite live by a different set of laws than the rest of us.

A record 64 percent of American adults surveyed by Gallup in a poll released Monday rated the honesty and ethical standards for members of Congress as "low" or "very low.

The question all of us are thinking is "when will this change?" The answer has much to do with the nature of corruption itself. Corruption is only possible if the benefits to the parties engaged in it far outweigh the potential consequences.

However, as soon as the potential consequences become real, that's when everything changes: people start talking/ confessing, and the corruption begins to come unraveled.

We had a taste of this with Ron Blagovich and Jack Abramoff. We're going to be seeing more of this in the future as well. And it's going to be the debt deleveraging that forces it.

Let me explain.

For much of the last three decades, the political process in the US has largely consisted of politicians winning votes by promising various social programs and benefits to
voters. Once in office, they then showered their high level donors and corporate sponsors with various goodies and handouts through bills and various no-bid contracts, while throwing voters a bone through the various social programs they promised during their campaigns.

This whole game was made possible by the fact that the US could find the necessary funding to meet the near-term needs for the welfare programs promised to voters and there was enough financial largesse to permit the various handouts to corporate sponsors and other crony capitalists.

However, as the great debt implosion picks up steam globally and politicians are forced to renege of various promised social programs (the money simply won't be there), this game of "vote for me and I'll give you these handouts" will end.

When this happens, the crony capitalism and rampant corruption that has come to define American politics will change dramatically. Various parties will find that the benefits of "not talking" will no longer be there and they will try to broker deals with authorities and the general populace by going public about the various shenanigans that have been going on.

Let me put this in even more straightforward terms, once there becomes a very real chance that a Wall Street CEO or member of Congress might go to jail, the confessions are going to start coming fast and furious.

This will have a seismic shift on the lobbying/ crony capitalism/ back-room deals that currently define American politics. That shift is already beginning (note that Goldman Sachs' CEO hired a defense attorney and Ben Bernanke is trying to present himself as a man of the people). Also, consider the recent "slip up" by an MF Global executive under oath.

Granted, we're not yet at the point where people area actually getting nailed for the crimes they've committed (these seismic shifts take years), but we are getting to the point that those "in the know" are preparing for future litigation and lesser figures in the corruption game are starting to come forward and occasionally slip up during their testimony.

Do not be mistaken, the time of cleaning house is coming. It's only a matter of time. And the debt market is going to be what forces it, just as it will force the necessary purging of the rotten banks and the insolvent financial system.

And when that happens, we'll finally begin to start fresh and build an economy with real sustained growth.



Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist

PS. I am not naïve and do realize that corruption will always exist on some level. I am merely talking about the Fall of Rome-like levels of corruption we are witnessing today.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_425594

Snippet:

Outspoken British MEP Nigel Farage stormed out of the European Parliament on Wednesday after its German chairman cut him off in mid-flight for comparing Berlin’s ideas for Greece to Nazi control.

During a post-EU summit debate featuring top bloc leaders, Farage criticised a leaked German plan for EU control of Greek public spending, saying bailed out Athens was already practically an EU ”colony, a terrible huge mistake.” Farage, a former City banker in London who is now a popular television political pundit, described the German finance ministry proposals as installing ”a gauleiter,” a Nazi party regional official under Adolf Hitler.

Darling of the English right, Farage said of the Berlin proposal: ”Suggesting an EU commissioner and his staff occupy a big building in Athens and take over the running of the country, a ’gauleiter’ some may say, I thought it must be a joke.” The comment provoked uproar, especially among German MEPs, with Greens lawmaker Reinhard Buetikofer accusing the UK Independence Party (UKIP) chief of spreading ”hatred in the European Parliament, hatred between European peoples”.

Newly-installed parliament speaker Martin Schulz also intervened with a comment about nationalism, before Farage came back: ”We have German newspapers slagging off the Greeks for being lazy and useless, slagging off the Italians for being cowards and we have Italian and Greek newspapers depicting leading figures in Germany wearing Nazi uniforms.” Farage was called to order from the speaker’s chair, before Schulz turned off his microphone, Schulz’s spokesman Armin Machmer said.

Farage finally had no option but to ”walk out of the chamber in disgust,” his spokesman Hermann Kelly said.

Farage, who said he was only repeating a word used in British media at the weekend, later lodged a formal complaint saying Schulz -- long a sparring partner before the German became speaker last month -- stepped beyond the boundaries of his authorised role as moderator.

”His only answer was to threaten me with removal from the chamber by the ushers,” Farage told AFP

http://www.hindecapital.com/docs/hil...fication-1.pdf

kno, can u plz explain why NFP actual< forecast good for currency. NFP is change in labour productivity. if its A>F then shouldn't it be good for currency? more productivity, better economic input?r

They've been talking hours about hours now, but what puzzles me: What will be the market effect?

Once we get announcement that banks are taking a pile of losses (we already know that) and huge amount of Euros will be "removed" in form of dept from market, how will markets react?

Will there be relief rally to 1.35 or rational "Take your money and run"?

PT, Kno, Any opinions?

It's almost London Session and there is nobody around - Have I missed something?

Today is a non-event day other than maybe the US jobless claims. Tomorrow is the big Holy Grail NFP day. That is when the market may make a significant move.

As for your question about the possible market reaction to a Greek deal finalization, your guess is as good as mine. However, this is what I think.

1. The market had already priced in a default and up until the end of December was extremely net short the Euro all the way to the end of the first week of January.

2. In the second week of January when it appeared that there would be a voluntary haircut which would most likely greatly reduce the risk of contagion, the short positions started to cover which in turn drove the Euro up. This was also helped by the Fed's dovish statements and renewed calls for a possible QE3 which weakened the USD.

3. Now we sit in a state of indecision in the markets. On the one hand, whether or not Greece has a deal, it is still Euro negative. The difference is that a deal is better than no deal (Limited or controlled losses). However, if the US economy (which in the short term will be more reflected in the NFP numbers tomorrow) looks like it is slowing down again or not growing to expectation, the Fed is likely to ease more (QE3) which might be USD negative depending on what kind of easing is involved.

4. New developments in the Greek situation are calling for the public sector (Including the ECB) to participate in the haircut. This means that the ECB, the EU and the IMF will have to take a loss on Greek debt. This will not be good for confidence by the international governments to put more money in the IMF, nor for the IMF to get further involved in another losing battle (Like Portugal and Spain and possibly Italy) should the need arise. Even if Christine LaGarde makes an executive decision to take the risk, she will be faced with much opposition from the US and Asia... oh and probably Germany also

So no matter how you look at it, even if the US launches QE3, in the medium to long term, this is all Euro negative.

What happens in the short term is anybody's guess.

Quite right - Just wanted second opinions, since I don't consider my opinions worthwhile according to my own experience.

New falling channel (FC-3) UTL resistance is still being respected.

It seems every time price approaches anything near 1.32, the sellers jump in.

According to ForexLive, there are some "nasty" buy stop orders clustered above 1.3220 which implies a massive stop loss hunt set up. If they are successful, price should very quickly drive up to 1.3245/50 area and most likely scare the bears into covering more longer term shorts driving it up even higher. However, we have to break the aforementioned UTL first. A better than expected NFP tomorrow might accomplish that. Time will tell.

Trade safe

PT also got rumours of a major US bank recomending shorts for clients

goldman? Jp morgan? BAC?

from talking forex.com live news feed + squawk

Waw.. Nice View Dude..

So, If price Break a Blue Line, Price will have a Big Opportunity to down?
Nice.. Very Nice..

and Thanks for share..

Morgan Stanley has issued a trade recommendation shorting EUR/USD at 1.325o with a 1.2390 target , and a tight buy stop of 1.2250, citing January’s recovery as small correction to the downtrend started in Oct 2011

What just happened on the Eur/Usd. 65 pip spike o the 5 min

anyone able to explain that sudden spike in EURUSD?

the spike was i believe due to the news bout china wanting to participate in efsf and esm.

Happened today on the Nikkei, so maybe same on the exchange... Daily FX says this too.

Otherwise no idea what happened just there... Crazy!