EurAnalysis

http://fc05.deviantart.net/fs71/f/20...otThinnens.jpg

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...economic-stage

Snippet:

Have you ever watched a football game or a basketball game where one team dominates the other team so badly that calling it a "blowout" would be a huge understatement? Well, that is what China is doing to the United States. China is absolutely destroying America on the global economic stage. Once upon a time, the Chinese economy was a joke and the U.S. economy was the most powerful the world had ever seen. But over the past couple of decades the U.S. economy has decayed and declined while the Chinese economy has skyrocketed. Today, China makes more steel, more automobiles, more beer, more cotton, more coal and more solar panels than we do. China has the fastest train in the world, the fastest computer in the world and they export twice as much high-tech equipment as we do. In 2011, our trade deficit with China was the largest trade deficit that one nation has had with another nation in the history of the world, and China has now accumulated more than 3 trillion dollars in foreign currency reserves. Every single day, we lose more jobs, more businesses and more of our national wealth to China. In technical economic terms, China has "taken us out behind the woodshed" and has beaten the living daylights out of us. Unfortunately, most Americans are so addicted to entertainment that they don't even realize what is happening.

If you do not believe that China is wiping the floor with America in front of the rest of the world, just keep reading. The following are 47 signs that China is absolutely destroying America on the global economic stage....

#1 Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Today, China's high-tech exports are more than twice the size of U.S. high-tech exports.

#2 America has lost more than a quarter of all of its high-tech manufacturing jobs over the past ten years.

#3 The Chinese economy has grown 7 times faster than the U.S. economy has over the past decade.

#4 In 2010, China produced more than twice as many automobiles as the United States did.

#5 In 2010, China produced 627 million metric tons of steel. The United States only produced 80 million metric tons of steel.

#6 In 2010, China produced 7.3 million metric tons of cotton. The United States only produced 3.4 million metric tons of cotton.

#7 China produced 19.8 percent of all the goods consumed in the world during 2010. The United States only produced 19.4 percent.

#8 During 2010, we spent $365 billion on goods and services from China while they only spent $92 billion on goods and services from us.

#9 In 1985, the U.S. trade deficit with China was 6 million dollars for the entire year. The final U.S. trade deficit with China for 2011 will be very close to 300 billion dollars. That will be the largest trade deficit that one nation has had with another nation in the history of the world.

#10 The U.S. trade deficit with China is now 28 times larger than it was back in 1990.

#11 Since China entered the WTO in 2001, the U.S. trade deficit with China has grown by an average of 18% per year.

Kno's Comments: Read The Other 36 Yourself. I only read the news so we see the truth based on numbers and the actual reality at the moment.

Conclusion...

Obama does not realize that it is not so simple to "find something right away" in this economy.
We have been shipping high-tech jobs overseas at a blistering pace. The jobs simply are not there anymore.
In Europe, unemployment is even worse. Just check out this chart which shows what has been happening to youth unemployment in Europe recently.
In both the United States and Europe, a great disconnect has taken place. Just because big corporations in the U.S. and in Europe are doing well, that does not mean that they are going to provide good jobs for workers in the U.S. and in Europe.
These days, it is way too easy for big corporations to ship jobs over to places like China where it is perfectly legal to pay workers slave labor wages.
So unless something changes, that means that from now on there will be chronic structural unemployment problems in the United States.
That also means that the number of Americans dependent on the government is going to continue to increase.
And unfortunately, there are signs that the economy is about to experience another downturn. Consumer confidence in the U.S. is falling once again. The Baltic Dry Index, which is often used as a measure of the health of the world economy, has fallen more than 60 percent since October.
Perhaps most importantly of all, Europe is heading into a recession and several European nations are already experiencing depression-like conditions.
Considering the fact that half of all global trade involves Europe in some manner, that is not a good thing for us.
So if you have a job right now, you might want to hold on to it tightly. Jobs are precious commodities at the moment, and they are going to become even more scarce in the years ahead.

Absolutely I agree with you on the sense that I can not be certain and unfortunately I do not know as well until it has happened. If I did I would be posting here like mad so we could all be rich together and one day throw a massive party while buying earth

My only concern is that the price on the daily clearly shows an uptrend and the price action now is showing a bull flag. Considering that, no matter how many theories and bad fundies are thrown EUR/USD is not gonna suddenly reverse and plummet into oblivion.

I like to keep it simple, if EU doesn't close (on the daily) above 1.3234 high then it will likely continue this consolidation and even perhaps retest the daily 13 EMA.

If price cracks below the 13 EMA daily then...shit my longs failed and I better look for short opportunities but until then I don't want to make any drama.

I know everybody has a different view of FX but interesting enough, analysis all point to the same direction at the end of the day. (MA followers, SR followers, cloud followers etc) And since all this is through typing I do not mean any disrespect..

EDIT: oops I thought I quoted piptrapper...

Thanks for the Humor PipTrapper. I think I will offer Silver the next time I need to pay for services if I travel to another Country.

For Information Purposes Only...

http://goldswitzerland.com/index.php...eld-febr-2012/

Snippet:

WHAT ABOUT SILVER?
By Alf Field

I have received numerous emails asking about silver. This article was prompted by a question enquiring what the silver price might be if my gold forecast of $4,500 proved to be correct. As I own some silver bullion and a number of silver mining shares, the question caused me to pause and take a closer look at silver.
The reason why I have written very little about silver in the past was because the beautiful Elliott Wave (EW) symmetry and predictable relationships visible in gold were not to be found in silver. I first wrote about silver in December 2003 in an article titled “US Dollar Implosion – Part II”. The link to this article is at: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...eld120503.html. The brief piece on silver was tacked onto the end of that article. In view of its brevity, the 2003 silver piece is reproduced in full below:
SILVER
http://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conten...-silver-af.jpg
“In past crises, the wealthy protected themselves by purchasing gold and gold related assets. Ordinary people, by far the greater number, could rarely afford to buy gold. Being far cheaper, they previously had to buy silver. This metal became the poor man’s choice as an asset to protect their savings. Silver has so far lagged gold in the early stages of this bull market, but that situation seems about to change.”
“Throughout recorded history the average relationship between silver and gold has been 15oz silver to 1oz gold. The ratio at present is a far higher 75:1 ($400/$5.30). This is massively out of line. If gold were to double to $800 per oz, it would not be unreasonable to expect the silver/gold ratio to decline sharply, possibly as low as 40:1. With gold at $800, this would position silver at $20.
Thus a 100% increase in the price of gold could possibly be accompanied by a simultaneous 400% increase (perhaps more) in the price of silver. This offers significant opportunities both in silver bullion and silver mining shares.
The above graph of the price of silver has been borrowed from an excellent recent article by Dan Norcini entitled “A Technical Look at Silver – Update”. What is quite clear from the graph is that silver’s 22-year bear market down trend has come to an end. As Dan Norcini says, a new bull market in silver has been born. It is difficult to argue against this contention and I have no intention of doing so. A silver price above $6.80 would complete a fabulous head-and-shoulders base formation. With this as a foundation, it would be possible to project a very large rise in the price of silver for the future.” – end of the December 2003 quotation.
Silver did reach $20.68 in March 2008 at the same time that gold peaked at $1003. The silver to gold ratio was thus 48.5 in March 2008. The lowest this ratio has reached is about 32, achieved at the end of April 2011 when gold was around $1570 and silver peaked in the $49 area. At that point gold had experienced a 6-fold increase from its bull market starting point of $255 while the silver price rose 12-fold from its bull market starting point of $4 in November 2001.
The quick answer to the question of what the silver price will be when gold gets to $4,500 is to pick your favorite silver/gold ratio and divide it into $4500. The current ratio incidentally is about 51. If you choose the lowest ratio achieved since 2001 of 32 that would produce a silver price of around $140 ($4500 divided by 32).
This is not a satisfactory answer, so I decided to approach the Elliott Wave analysis of silver from a different angle. Instead of working upwards using the analysis of the minor waves, which was the technique used in the gold calculations, what if we worked backwards in silver starting with the larger waves?
Gold and silver tend to move in tandem, not in an exact synchronization, but enough to suggest that the Major waves of both metals should coincide from a time perspective. We know that in gold the Major ONE wave peaked in March 2008 at $1003 and that Major TWO declined to $680 in November 2008.
Silver also had a peak in March 2008 at $20.68 and declined to an important low of $8.77 in November 2008. If we assumed that the peak at $20.68 in March 2008 was the end of Major ONE and the decline to $8.77 the end of Major TWO, how would the various percentages work out? When I did these calculations I was astonished at the relationships and wave counts that emerged.
The chart below is the monthly spot silver price shown in log scale so that the percentage changes are visible. The bull market started in November 2001 at a price of $4.02. From that point to the suggested peak of Major ONE at $20.68 there are five clear waves visible, marked 1-2-3-4-5. The prices at the various turning points are also displayed.

http://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conten...-silver-af.jpg

The analysis of the suggested Major ONE wave is set out in the body of the chart. The typical impulse wave relationships are immediately apparent. Both corrective waves 2 and 4 are similar (-33.7% and -35.9%). Whenever two corrective waves are similar it is a signal that they are part of the same larger wave structure. On its own, this fact would confirm that the 5 wave move from $4.02 to $20.68 was a complete wave of larger degree.
There is further corroborating evidence. Waves 1 and 5 are similar at +106% and +115%, a usual EW feature. Wave 3 should be the longest wave, and it is at +171%. In addition, if one multiplies the gain in wave 1 of +106% by 1.618 it produces 171.5%, exactly the gain in wave 3. These relationships are evidence that the rise from $4.02 to $20.68 is a completed impulse wave and that we can call it Major ONE.
Having completed this 5 wave up move, the next correction in Major TWO would be expected to be one degree larger than the two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% in Major ONE. As shown on the chart, Major TWO declined from $20.68 to $8.77, a loss of -57.6%. The two corrections of 33.7% and 35.9% are close to the Fibonacci 34. The next higher number in the sequence is 55, close to the actual decline of 57.6% in major TWO. Incidentally, if we take the 35.9% decline and multiply it by 1.618, it gives a figure of 58%, very close to the actual decline of 57.6%.
These relationships suggest that silver has completed the same shaped bull market as gold has and that it is at the same stage in its development. Thus silver has probably also completed the first intermediate up wave of Major THREE, in this case from $8.77 to $49.52, a gain of +$40.75 or +464% and has also completed intermediate wave 2 of Major THREE, being the decline from $49.52 to $26.39 or -47%.
How does this decline of -47% measure up in terms of EW relationships? As with gold, where the corrections in Major THREE were shown to be larger than the corrections in Major ONE, the same applies to silver. The corrections in Major ONE shown in the chart above were close to -34%. If we multiply 34% by another Fibonacci relationship of 1.382 we get 47%!
This is mind-blowing stuff for an analyst who did not believe that EW applied to silver!
We can now attempt to make some price forecasts. Silver, as with gold, is starting intermediate wave 3 of Major THREE, which should be the longest and strongest wave in the bull market. It should certainly be longer than intermediate wave 1 which was the gain from $8.77 to $49.52, or +464%, as shown above.
Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).
The gain in gold was forecast to be 200% for this move while the forecast rise in the silver price is 500%. Silver is again predicted to perform better than gold based on these EW calculations.
A word of caution is appropriate at this stage. All EW studies are based on probabilities. While the wave counts may provide a high degree of confidence in the forecasts, one cannot be 100% certain of any forecast. It is necessary to have a point at which it is obvious that the forecasts are wrong. In the case of this silver study, the line in the sand is at $26.00. If the silver price drops below $26.00 the odds are that the above calculations will not work out.
A further word of caution: silver is not for the faint hearted. Silver is considerably more volatile than gold and the corrections are much larger. Silver corrections can and do happen quickly. They are emotionally gut-wrenching and it is easy to get shaken out of one’s position near the bottom of a large correction.
Alf Field
1 February 2012

Disclosure and Disclaimer Statement: The author has personal investments in gold and silver bullion, as well as in gold, silver, uranium and base metal mining shares. The author’s objective in writing this article is to interest potential investors in this subject to the point where they are encouraged to conduct their own further diligent research. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, currency or commodity. Investors are recommended to obtain the advice of a qualified investment advisor before entering into any transactions. The author has neither been paid nor received any other inducement to write this article.
1st February

Don get disappointed of urself. You're not stupid.
Fakey is a common signal u'll see everyday while trading. It's not something that's predictable. Just make sure u get out once u spot it asap.
Here's my view on EU. We are currently still ranging between 1.32xx and 1.3077 for a consecutive of 3 days. A candle close above resistance will give us a bull signal to 1.34xx / 1.35xx. A close below support, will bring us back to 1.2 area.

P.S. First time posting chart here.
Any view is open.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_425408

Snippet:

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, back in Athens after two days of tough talks in Brussels and Frankfurt on two debt deals Greece is negotiating with foreign creditors, is expected to hold another meeting with the leaders of his coalition government on Wednesday or Thursday in a bid to clinch their support for tough new austerity measures.

Papademos is expected to present the party leaders with the positions of his EU peers, set out to him at Monday’s summit in Brussels, and to explain which Greek objections they are prepared to accept and to what extent.
Unresolved issues include possible wage cuts, cuts to auxiliary pensions and the recapitalization of banks. However it appears that foreign creditors are ready to show some flexibility on the thorny issue of wages.

In comments made during an interview to Kathimerini by Poul Thomsen, the head of the Greek delegation of the International Monetary Fund -- one of the country’s three foreign creditors -- indicated that the 13th and 14th salaries in the private sector need not be cut if authorities lower the minimum wage and move ahead with closing down state-backed entities. .
Papademos is due to meet Thomsen and envoys from the European Commission and European Central Bank on Friday following talks with the party leaders.

If a deal between the government and the creditors is reached, it will be presented at a summit of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels next Monday, paving the way for the approval of a second bailout for Greece and a bond swap aimed at reducing the country’s debt burden by 100 billion euros...

Kno's Comments: And So It Goes As We See The Can Kicked Further Until It Ends Up With A Default...

Hey bro. Same here. Not a Forex Guru level yet. But u don seriously think I did predict that's a fakey do u? lol.. I was bear trapped too but managed to get out asap and shift to buy. Yes, a break of 1.32xx level is good to hold buy till 1.34/1.35. I know fundamentally Euro is bearish and I too don know wat the heck is happening. LOL. Currently we're still ranging. Let's hope we have our directions by tonight. Cheers.

It will be satisfying if technicals take the direction of fundamentals so that we can be so very confident of our levels. Else the market reverses at unexpected areas. Hope the trend gets clear tonight.

"But u don seriously think I did predict that's a fakey do u? lol."

I respectfully disagree.
From TECHNICAL standpoint only!( always a disclaimer)

On the daily chart the recent uptrend has not even surpassed the 38.2% level of the last down move and would be indicative of a bear flag as it is still in a up channel with parallel trendlines and sloped against the trend.

So..... if you are using the daily chart it still supports bear flag scenario.

Stunning !!!! I never noticed this... I was worrying about 4H bull flag.... Since Daily is more influencing, now i have one more reason that it stays bearish

We'll know soon enough

Wow!
AMR parent of American Airlines cutting 10-15K jobs in restructure.
Just spectacular!

SOURCE: CNBC

That may give Benny and co the excuse they need for QE3

Maybe that's why ADP was short!

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Reversed as Sentiments lifted by European Data, Auctions, and Greek Rumor

Dollar reversed earlier gains today as market sentiments are lifted by solid manufacturing data as well as rumors that Greece PSI deal could be announced as early as this week. Also, German and portuguese auctions were solid. Dollar index dropped sharply and broke yesterday's low of 78.74 and invalidated that double bottom reversal scenario. Sterling and aussie broke yesterday's high against dollar while EUR/USD is set to test 1.3233. Released from US, ADP employment showed 170k expansion in the private job sector in January versus expectation of 185k.
Manufacturing data from Europe released today were positive. UK PMI manufacturing was most impressive, rising to 52.1 versus expectation of 50 in January. Eurozone PMI manufacturing PMI was revised up to 48.8 in January. Germany PMI manufacturing was revised up to 51.0. However, Swiss SVME PMI missed expectation and deteriorated to 47.3.
Portugal sold EUR 1.5b of treasury bills today. The yield on 3 month bills fell to 4.068%, comparing to prior auction's 4.346%. The six-month bills yielded 4.463%, down from 4.740% in prior auction. Bid-to-cover ratio for the 3 months bills was at 2.8 times while that on the 6-month bills was at 2.6 times. Germany sold EUR 4.093b of 2% January 2022 bund at yield of 1.82%, down from 1.93% at January auction. The Bundesbank received EUR 5.683b for the EUR 5b auction volume. After all both auctions went relatively well. .
Banks stocks were also lifted as Bank of Italy allowed more flexibility in buying back subordinated bonds. In short, the regulations meet European buyback rules on hybrid securities as Bank are not required to issue new instruments to replace those repurchased at the same time. And there is no need for stock market regulator approval.
Greek Finance Minister Venizelos said that they're "one step" away from finalizing the debt swap agreement with private bondholders. He said that the "next few days will determine what happens over the coming decade". And, it's a "greater PSI" than originally forseen in July. Venizelos further clarified saying that the haircut is about 50% on nominal value and 70% on net present value. Also, Venizelos said talks with EU and IMF on the new package must be completed by February 5 while the PSI debt swap off must be made by February 13.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120201158657/

Title Should Be Greek Rumor NOT Grek !!!

For all the techies out there, I am only posting examples on EURUSD for real instead of diagrams from sites.

To trade it a long would be placed on break of pennant to the north.
However this can also lead to false breakout and some prudent traders will wait for a retest of the break of pennant upper trendline to enter their long or a closed candle above break.

Remember though your timeframes( this is 15 m) and other circumstances such as funnymentals , supply and demand zones,time of trading day and overall larger timeframe trend.

DISCLAIMER: This is only an explanation, not a suggestion, please trade at your own risk using your own strategies.

Watch for possible profit taking at London close.

Just as was pointed out watch for Europe Close at 11:30 AM EST every day and I do. I have done plus 5 trades and closed all now for profits. It only goes up because of closing of positions. The charts tell you diddly. Well I did open and close and now I am gone for the day. EUR/USD back near 131.89

Yawn...

Have a good day and find your EDGE and ride it to the Golden Rainbow !!!

Why would the US Fed start buying Euros and GBP early this morning (6:00am) before New York trading opened? Perhaps a plan to drive the dollar down and boost exports?

Just heard on the squawk box that:


Greek finance minister official says final greek debt deal is hours away


buy euro?? what are your thoughts people?


Regards

Alexander

Who told you they were buying ? Do you have Benny's home phone number or his girlfriends ? Just joking... Who was buying Euro's ? The Retail trade so they could lose it later and keep their average at 95% losses !!!

Just my opinion and now off to downtown and lunch. New Jobless claims on Thursday and a DEFINITE conclusion to the Greece problem. How do I know ? They told us of course and we always accept what we are told at face value.

I just heard on CNBC that they were told that we are now hours away from a deal with the private bondholders. Here is the deal folks.

You lose 70% of your capital and you get a kiss on the cheek. Then there is no default on the CDS just like Jim Sinclair told us a few days ago...

Barnum and Bailey once said there is a sucker born every minute.