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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #21,441
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:35am Jan 31, 2012 9:35am
Quoting sftyler
Has anyone manage to find out the name of the 5 bank they relate to in knohollygrail post that are in the ISDA because through my research there seems to be more than 5 and not just banks.
Anyone else have a look ?
Just take a look at who chairs the board as well as the vice chair and other executive members of the board. Then see which banks they work for. That should get you started.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,442
  • Jan 31, 2012 9:41am Jan 31, 2012 9:41am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Ahhh! Scalping....a trader after my heart!


1.3171 is Daily S1 which has not been broken yet (3 candles on 5 minute chart). Just took short and hoping to get DM2 at 1.3139. SL at 1.3173
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #21,443
  • Jan 31, 2012 10:17am Jan 31, 2012 10:17am
Quoting Cgb


1.3171 is Daily S1 which has not been broken yet (3 candles on 5 minute chart). Just took short and hoping to get DM2 at 1.3139. SL at 1.3173
Screwed that one up! Oh well... That's enough for me today. Did quota, I'm happy.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #21,444
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:19pm Jan 31, 2012 12:19pm
Hmmm. Time to look for new entry.
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  • #21,445
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:50pm Jan 31, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Hmmm. Time to look for new entry.
That's a bear flag.

Remember tomorrow (Wednesday) we have the ADP version of NFP. Thursday we have US unemployment claims and Friday is HolyGrail-NFP day. So be careful... it may get a bit whippy.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,446
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:23pm Jan 31, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting PipTrapper
That's a bear flag.

Remember tomorrow (Wednesday) we have the ADP version of NFP. Thursday we have US unemployment claims and Friday is HolyGrail-NFP day. So be careful... it may get a bit whippy.
I hope so..........but

Ascending Triangle
The ascending triangle is a bullish pattern, which gives an indication that the price of the security is headed higher upon completion. The pattern is formed by two trendlines: a flat trendline being a point of resistance and an ascending trendline acting as a price support.

The price of the security moves between these trendlines until it eventually breaks out to the upside. This pattern will typically be preceded by an upward trend, which makes it a continuation pattern; however, it can be found during a downtrend.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articl...ngTriangle.gif Figure 2: Ascending triangle
As seen above, the price moves to a high that faces resistance leading to a sell-off to a low. This follows another move higher, which tests the previous level of resistance. Upon failing to move past this level of resistance, the security again sells off - but to a higher low. This continues until the price moves above the level of resistance or the pattern fails.

The most telling part of this pattern is the ascending support line, which gives an indication that sellers are starting to leave the security. After the sellers are knocked out of the market, the buyers can take the price past the resistance level and resume the upward trend.

The pattern is complete upon breakout above the resistance level, but it can fall below the support line (thus breaking the pattern), so be careful when entering prior to breakout.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/universi...#ixzz1l4r9arzQ
  • #21,447
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:27pm Jan 31, 2012 3:27pm
My view on euro ++ market move posible boj &snb action ...
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Bismillah
  • #21,448
  • Jan 31, 2012 4:58pm Jan 31, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
I hope so..........but


The most telling part of this pattern is the ascending support line, which gives an indication that sellers are starting to leave the security. After the sellers are knocked out of the market, the buyers can take the price past the resistance level and resume the upward trend.
What buyers? This is classic short covering at end of session
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,449
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:18pm Jan 31, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
What buyers? This is classic short covering at end of session

Not my definition....I think it was Investopedia's.
I merely mention the Technical aspects of the pattern and that an ascending triangle can occur in an up or down trend.
REMEMBER all patterns can fail! My H&S scenario will not be complete unless price reaches 1.2950 zone.

I would much rather see a continuance pattern than a reversal, but this crazy A** pair has been all over the place lately.

So if your right about the bear flag then...... and

And if you're wrong then..... and

Kisses!
  • #21,450
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:23pm Jan 31, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Not my definition....I think it was Investopedia's.
I merely mention the Technical aspects of the pattern and that an ascending triangle can occur in an up or down trend.
REMEMBER all patterns can fail! My H&S scenario will not be complete unless price reaches 1.2950 zone.

I would much rather see a continuance pattern than a reversal, but this crazy A** pair has been all over the place lately.

So if your right about the bear flag then...... and

And if you're wrong then..... and

Kisses!
I guess we'll see at London open. Good night
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,451
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:25pm Jan 31, 2012 5:25pm
From CNBC via email...

NBC News has declared Mitt Romney the projected winner in Florida’s GOP presidential primary, with Newt Gingrich a distant second, Rick Santorum third and Ron Paul fourth. All polls are now closed.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #21,452
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:31pm Jan 31, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting sftyler
Has anyone manage to find out the name of the 5 bank they relate to in knohollygrail post that are in the ISDA because through my research there seems to be more than 5 and not just banks.
Anyone else have a look ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/five-b...-sitting-fx-de

Snippet:

The latest quarterly report from the Office Of the Currency Comptroller is out and as usual it presents in a crisp, clear and very much glaring format the fact that the top 4 banks in the US now account for a massively disproportionate amount of the derivative risk in the financial system. Specifically, of the $250 trillion in gross notional amount of derivative contracts outstanding (consisting of Interest Rate, FX, Equity Contracts, Commodity and CDS) among the Top 25 commercial banks (a number that swells to $333 trillion when looking at the Top 25 Bank Holding Companies), a mere 5 banks (and really 4) account for 95.9% of all derivative exposure (HSBC replaced Wells as the Top 5th bank, which at $3.9 trillion in derivative exposure is a distant place from #4 Goldman with $47.7 trillion). The top 4 banks: JPM with $78.1 trillion in exposure, Citi with $56 trillion, Bank of America with $53 trillion and Goldman with $48 trillion, account for 94.4% of total exposure. As historically has been the case, the bulk of consolidated exposure is in Interest Rate swaps ($204.6 trillion), followed by FX ($26.5TR), CDS ($15.2 trillion), and Equity and Commodity with $1.6 and $1.4 trillion, respectively. And that's your definition of Too Big To Fail right there: the biggest banks are not only getting bigger, but their risk exposure is now at a new all time high and up $5.3 trillion from Q1 as they have to risk ever more in the derivatives market to generate that incremental penny of return.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...09/OCC%201.jpg
  • #21,453
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:31pm Jan 31, 2012 5:31pm
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  • #21,454
  • Edited 5:53pm Jan 31, 2012 5:47pm | Edited 5:53pm
Hmmm! Been watching Mitt Willard Romney speaking and did anyone notice that the only time you can know when he is lying or feeding us bullsh*t is when his mouth is moving?

I scratch my head at the dilemma the GOP finds themselves in.

Problem with American political system is we need more than 2 parties and with only 2 parties in power they will never allow the big money to be excluded from participating in the methodical redistribution of wealth from the populace to those who pull the puppet strings.

This is alot like the movie Groundhog Day!SSDD(same shoo-shoo different day)

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  • #21,455
  • Jan 31, 2012 5:57pm Jan 31, 2012 5:57pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Hmmm! Been watching Mitt Willard Romney speaking and did anyone notice that the only time you can know when he is lying or feeding us bullsh*t is when his mouth is moving?

I scratch my head at the dilemma the GOP finds themselves in.

Problem with American political system is we need more than 2 parties and with only 2 parties in power they will never allow the big money to be excluded from participating in the methodical redistribution of wealth from the populace to those who pull the puppet strings.

This is alot like the movie Groundhog Day![color=red]SSDD(same...
Hmm...so what's so different from him doing that and any other two bit politician.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #21,456
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:02pm Jan 31, 2012 6:02pm
http://webofdebt.wordpress.com/2011/...money-machine/

Snippet:

We have been distracted here and in Europe by a sudden panic over our “sovereign debt” crises, when the real crisis is that our debt is NOT sovereign. We are indentured to a Wall Street money machine that creates our money and lends it back to us at interest, money our sovereign government could be creating itself, with full democratic oversight and accountability to the people. We have forgotten our roots, when the American colonists thrived on a system of money created by the people themselves, debt-free and interest-free. The continued dominance of the Wall Street money machine depends on that collective amnesia. The fact that this memory is surfacing again may be the machine’s greatest threat—and our greatest hope as a nation.

  • #21,457
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:07pm Jan 31, 2012 6:07pm

Forgot to add: This is what EURUSD is manifesting

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  • #21,458
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:08pm Jan 31, 2012 6:08pm
WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Hi Jim,
I was quite captivated by your interview with respect to the ISDA. I was a bit surprised neither you or Ellis mentioned what impact the pending event would have on US bond prices, especially the 30 year bond.

What is your take on the impact to the US debt market, assuming the events unfold this week as Jim expects?

I am not soliciting any financial advice, strictly an opinion based on current events.
Thanks,
CIGA Gary

Gary,
Remember what a combination of QE and Operation Twist are? That is non-economic government buying of its own debt.
In time the long bonds are toast, but selling short to the Fed has great risk. Therefore avoid them until 2014.5.
Regards,
Jim

Jim,
Thanks for the interview. Does that mean the opposite? Will we get a huge blast off in all risk assets after the forthcoming announcement?
Thanks as always,
CIGA Kevin

Kevin,
No default means the euro is ok as we walk down a road toward perdition papered by QE3 and "no default" edicts.
Jim
  • #21,459
  • Edited 6:11pm Jan 31, 2012 6:10pm | Edited 6:11pm
Quoting spzd
Hmm...so what's so different from him doing that and any other two bit politician.
Uhhh! He's got more than 2-bits!

But, seriously in all reality, Kno's post above this hits the ball out of the park!( the post after DEVO)
  • #21,460
  • Jan 31, 2012 6:12pm Jan 31, 2012 6:12pm
http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-borrowed-time

Snippet:

"In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014."
(Press Release, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 25 January 2012)
Something is wrong with our economy. Given the recent pronouncements by the Fed, it is unlikely to improve in the short or intermediate term. America is drowning in debt and our financial experts keep advocating larger doses of "debt heroin" to fix the problem. In the last decade, total outstanding debt has increased from $28 trillion in 2000 to approximately $54 trillion in 2010. During that same period of time U.S. GDP has grown from $9.9 trillion in 2000 to $14.6 trillion in 2010. It is now taking close to $6 of debt to produce $1 in GDP. This is clearly unsustainable. America's economy is now beginning to malfunction.
Since 2008 the Fed's balance sheet has also grown from $900 billion to $2.9 trillion, an increase of $2 trillion in a period of four years. During that same period U.S. federal debt has expanded from $10.0 trillion to $15.5 in 2011, and will increase by another $1.2 trillion in 2012.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...ercent-gdp.jpg
Source: U.S. Government Spending

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