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EURUSD

  • #590,281
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:05pm Jan 31, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting nobody
anybody think it will hit 1.3025 tonight?
Technically impossible
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #590,282
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:05pm Jan 31, 2012 12:05pm
try to look at 4H chart.. it looks like head and shoulder pattern to me..
sorry can't attach the chart due to technical problem
  • #590,283
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:08pm Jan 31, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting mkvy
Many many times the price will go back all the way and kiss that trendline again
There is a reason that i already mentioned.
Bear badly needed retracement before 3060 break. Today just below 3100 was enough from my point of view.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #590,284
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:10pm Jan 31, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting izzas
try to look at 4H chart.. it looks like head and shoulder pattern to me..
sorry can't attach the chart due to technical problem
No head & shoulder if 3110 in first run
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #590,285
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:10pm Jan 31, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting forexings
Technically impossible

i like impossibles cause everybody think the same
  • #590,286
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:11pm Jan 31, 2012 12:11pm
- Key resistance around 1.3250 (the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace of January - October decline) has held so far this week and price is now testing the 1.3075 area support level.
- The attached chart shows a similar pattern to the standard bearish head and shoulders formation but with a higher right shoulder. However, the short covering we have seen over recent weeks could well continue to play itself out as the Federal Reserve recently signaled its ultra-loose monetary policy would continue. This should keep the U.S. dollar under pressure for some time and may see demand for EURUSD on any deeper pullback.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd analysis 2012 01 31 support break.png Size: 35 KB
  • #590,287
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:11pm Jan 31, 2012 12:11pm
Price wicked past the 240 trend wall but never painted a candle outside; the market makers allowed price to reverse on the wall. Since price has not broken out of the 240 trend I would look to be a cautious bull.

Current trades on EURUSD : Buy: 3053 target: 3235
Up 25 pips current with stop now at +1
Trade like a banker, trade to targets.
  • #590,288
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:16pm Jan 31, 2012 12:16pm
Only weekly chart is a hope for fat bear
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #590,289
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:21pm Jan 31, 2012 12:21pm
unless price breaks below the previous weeks low I still see us bullish in the long term.

Question is how long will the eurozone stay in debt? The euro has been oversold for quite some time now.

COT shows most commercials are getting long on the euro. Will be interesting to see the COT at the end of this week
  • #590,290
  • Edited 12:55pm Jan 31, 2012 12:30pm | Edited 12:55pm
Quoting forexings
Only weekly chart is a hope for fat bear
The people that make these lovely big candles do their analysis on the four hour chart; hopefully people do not ignore the higher time compressions.
Trade like a banker, trade to targets.
  • #590,291
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:35pm Jan 31, 2012 12:35pm
My bet is it bounces from here.

Why?

Because we have spent over a month building in a base here creating strong support. Many buyers below 1.30 are holding their investment for a better exit number than here.

The trend should continue along the line established or close to it for some time with minor shake outs here and there as many traders will attempt to push out weak longs along the way that are overleveraged or day trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur daily.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #590,292
  • Jan 31, 2012 12:51pm Jan 31, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting Dyekid217
unless price breaks below the previous weeks low I still see us bullish in the long term.

Question is how long will the eurozone stay in debt? The euro has been oversold for quite some time now.

COT shows most commercials are getting long on the euro. Will be interesting to see the COT at the end of this week
You joking?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #590,293
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:21pm Jan 31, 2012 1:21pm
certainly not. Here's the dollar index on the weekly. a fall in usd and a rise in euro will send this pair higher... not saying that I'm jumping on board right now. This is just an outlook.

watching the news and listening to everyone.. nobody knows where the euro will go, will greece default?? Only time will tell, I'm sitting on my hands
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1328036618
  • #590,294
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:30pm Jan 31, 2012 1:30pm
One of the best rules to remember is...

Don't confuse the value of the stock with the value of the underlying company.

put in forex terms

Don't confuse the value of the currency paper with the value of the underlying country.

They each have their own value at any given moment.

The price action of the EUR is suggesting that the value of the paper is more than what the obvious value of the Euro zone says. Something remains to be revealed, but if you wait to find out you will miss the move when it starts.

It is best to probe for entry before the cause of the divergence is revealed and it is too late to enjoy the profits from the forthcoming move.

People lie, politicians lie, companies lie, countries lie. The tape does not.
  • #590,295
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:38pm Jan 31, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting Dyekid217
unless price breaks below the previous weeks low I still see us bullish in the long term.

Question is how long will the eurozone stay in debt? The euro has been oversold for quite some time now.

COT shows most commercials are getting long on the euro. Will be interesting to see the COT at the end of this week
how do you define long term? 1mo? 1yr ?
The debt problem will remain forever and a decade more.
They'll only kick the can further down the road. There can't be consistent country growth in all countries with limited resources.

Why oversold ? You've been comfortable with 1.37-1.4?
Or because Apple and Ford came short on repors because E/U rates ?

On the other hand, US is in no better shape.
Just heard on the wires, 6% drop in gasoline demand vs ian 2011.

Even China won't be able to hold longer their growth sustained by building ghost cities
  • #590,296
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:43pm Jan 31, 2012 1:43pm
I more or less trade week to week.. not trying to mix too much into my trading. It's working right now so I don't like predicting too far into the future. as long as there is enough momentum for me to set my stop to BE or hit my TP then I'm good with whatever the market is doing.

But still, I sit on my hands until the right opportunity presents itself. If I have one question in doubt then the trade is not for me.
  • #590,297
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:48pm Jan 31, 2012 1:48pm
Market is thin now.

Technically if make a break either direction, it will be a jump.
It may happen, range is getting really tight, only thing that moves market now is stocks.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #590,298
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:56pm Jan 31, 2012 1:56pm
Something is cooking in the eurozone and it ain't gonna be tasty. So fasten your seatbelts. Closed my EURUSD long today. Was my first trade at Armada Markets and profitable. Gonna test this firm more but beginners luck I guess. Anyway, I am still short gold call options, crude oil call options, short SP500 futures, short coffee and sugar calls. So basically short everything. Bernanke needs a real crisis to justify pushing the PRINT button.
  • #590,299
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:59pm Jan 31, 2012 1:59pm
Is anybody using demark in euro trading? I follow a guy in twitter who trades stock indexes with demark analysis and he is most of the time correct. He says that most guys cannot figure out demark.
  • #590,300
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:03pm Jan 31, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting nobody
anybody think it will hit 1.3025 tonight?
I've got my eyes on 1,3030 ...let's see if it can go there.
I'll buy below 1,3030 during London if there is no sell off in sight
COT: The precious data ignored
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