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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,901
  • Jan 30, 2012 10:09pm Jan 30, 2012 10:09pm
Quoting yankeewh1te
Long ¥76.26, looking for a retrace to ¥77, or a massive pop (intervention). Trade entered at 1:30PM AEST (non-DST) here in Australia. The BoJ usually, if they're going to do something, do something early afternoon.
news all over the place but I think it's just talk, will keep waiting for a while

Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said today the
government will take decisive action on the currency if needed.
Toyota Motor Corp. Chief Executive Officer Akio Toyoda said
this month the “ideal” exchange rate is 90 yen to the dollar,
after Asia’s largest automaker cut its profit forecast by more
than half in December.
Yen appreciation may force the central bank to expand its
asset-purchase program and buy more government debt, said
Tetsuya Inoue, a former BOJ official who is now chief researcher
for financial markets at Nomura Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo.
The BOJ currently uses its fund to buy bonds with remaining
maturities of between one and two years.
“The BOJ is running out of options to ease strengthening
pressure on the yen,” Inoue said.
  • #29,902
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:16am Jan 31, 2012 1:16am
USDCHF H4 juxtaposition makes me feel comfortable having gone long USDJPY @ 76.26. The 50EMA on USDJPY H4? ¥77.00
Attached Image
  • #29,903
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:55am Jan 31, 2012 1:55am
Morning guys,

Looking at M15 we are at the top of the channel. If price breaks out I have the next resistance level around 76.65.
The last low was a lower low but only just which could suggest an exhaustion of this trend. If we break out of the channel and rise above the last high, the daily pivot should go with it.

UJ M15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ1.png Size: 91 KB
  • #29,904
  • Jan 31, 2012 1:58am Jan 31, 2012 1:58am
Quoting aripplet
news all over the place but I think it's just talk, will keep waiting for a while

Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said today the
government will take decisive action on the currency if needed.
Toyota Motor Corp. Chief Executive Officer Akio Toyoda said
this month the “ideal” exchange rate is 90 yen to the dollar,
after Asia’s largest automaker cut its profit forecast by more
than half in December.
Yen appreciation may force the central bank to expand its
asset-purchase program and buy more government debt, said
Tetsuya Inoue,...
i also heard it before..but i heard they need yen to go around 94Y
Bismillah
  • #29,905
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:05am Jan 31, 2012 2:05am
Thought the below comments on Forex Live would get the "can't wait for intervention" brigade wetting themselves with excitement

... talk Japanese banks told to stay late...
... rumour .. BOJ checking rates
.. market on heightened alert for possible BOJ intervention.
  • #29,906
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:09am Jan 31, 2012 2:09am
Quoting Mpt
Thought the below comments on Forex Live would get the "can't wait for intervention" brigade wetting themselves with excitement

... talk Japanese banks told to stay late...
... rumour .. BOJ checking rates
.. market on heightened alert for possible BOJ intervention.
BOJ won't intervene anytime near soon... because they also know that their alone intervention can only lift the price just for maximum of a month or so... intervenining alone this time will considered as a sheer waste of time & money... and those fellows are fullly aware about this...so don't expect intervention any time near soon..
  • #29,907
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:10am Jan 31, 2012 2:10am
Quoting fosking
Morning guys,

Looking at M15 we are at the top of the channel. If price breaks out I have the next resistance level around 76.65.
The last low was a lower low but only just which could suggest an exhaustion of this trend. If we break out of the channel and rise above the last high, the daily pivot should go with it.

UJ M15
Attachment
Nice

We have a slight bullish divergence forming on the daily......may pan out....may not
Attached Image
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,908
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:15am Jan 31, 2012 2:15am
Okay fellas. After a long absence from this pair I'm back in. Long now at 76.25. Let's ride this to the moon. Well maybe not that high, but at least to 76.50.
  • #29,909
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:21am Jan 31, 2012 2:21am
for a retail trader to justify or refute an intervention is just pointless. If there is anything we should have learned by now, they will hint and poke at the subject of intervention for a while in hopes to spur trading activity. but ONLY BOJ knows if and when they will intervene. If I had to guess, they already have a "level" in mind that if prices reaches that they will pour some money in. what level that is, I have no idea, what will it pop up to, no clue. But I am long @ 76.20, and have a plan to enter in more small positions if it continues to fall further until 75, and my stop is below 75 with targets just around the 78/80 area.

have a game plan and stick too it. already well prepared to take the hit if this turns out to be a bad trade ( small positions ). But excited at the thought of a possible 200-400 pip trade. ^_^
  • #29,910
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:28am Jan 31, 2012 2:28am
Quoting realjumper
Nice

We have a slight bullish divergence forming on the daily......may pan out....may not
Hey mate, how's it going?

I have support around this area so I'm expecting some short term bullish moves which could just turn out to be a retracement after the 200 pip drop over the last few days. I Have a lot of resistance around 77.50 also so I will wait for this to crack before I move back into this pair. After that, it's all ours!
  • #29,911
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:30am Jan 31, 2012 2:30am
With all this talk of Azumi and Noda intervening, I think this is a good time to post this back up...
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  • #29,912
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:31am Jan 31, 2012 2:31am
Quoting fosking
Hey mate, how's it going?

I have support around this area so I'm expecting some short term bullish moves which could just turn out to be a retracement after the 200 pip drop over the last few days. I Have a lot of resistance around 77.50 also so I will wait for this to crack before I move back into this pair. After that, it's all ours!
Sounds like a plan!! Now.....if we can just get Bernanke to keep quiet for a while.......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,913
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:32am Jan 31, 2012 2:32am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
With all this talk of Azumi and Noda intervening, I think this is a good time to post this back up...
hahaha... this is the fact.. but i really enjoyed ur presentation style...
  • #29,914
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:33am Jan 31, 2012 2:33am
Quoting fosking
Hey mate, how's it going?

I have support around this area so I'm expecting some short term bullish moves which could just turn out to be a retracement after the 200 pip drop over the last few days. I Have a lot of resistance around 77.50 also so I will wait for this to crack before I move back into this pair. After that, it's all ours!
Here's the chart I meant to post.

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj2.png Size: 165 KB
  • #29,915
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:33am Jan 31, 2012 2:33am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
With all this talk of Azumi and Noda intervening, I think this is a good time to post this back up...
lol........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,916
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:36am Jan 31, 2012 2:36am
Quoting fosking
Here's the chart I meant to post.

Daily
Attachment
Yep.....I see where your 77.50 comes into play.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,917
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:44am Jan 31, 2012 2:44am
Quoting realjumper
Sounds like a plan!! Now.....if we can just get Bernanke to keep quiet for a while.......
Haha yep.

And with the USD continuing to drop, UJ will be pulled down with it.
However I now see a chance for a bullish retracement on the USD which would coincide nicely with a break out of this channel on UJ up to 76.65.

Daily FXCM USD
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  • #29,918
  • Jan 31, 2012 2:58am Jan 31, 2012 2:58am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
With all this talk of Azumi and Noda intervening, I think this is a good time to post this back up...
hahahha...interesting
Bismillah
  • #29,919
  • Edited 3:03am Jan 31, 2012 3:02am | Edited 3:03am
Quoting fosking
Haha yep.

And with the USD continuing to drop, UJ will be pulled down with it.
However I now see a chance for a bullish retracement on the USD which would coincide nicely with a break out of this channel on UJ up to 76.65.

Daily FXCM USD
Attachment
Can I ask, do you find the Ichimoku indi reliable and useful? I guess you do or else you wouldn't use it. I've never really played with it.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,920
  • Jan 31, 2012 3:15am Jan 31, 2012 3:15am
Quoting realjumper
Can I ask, do you find the Ichimoku indi reliable and useful? I guess you do or else you wouldn't use it. I've never really played with it.
Yes, I find it extremely reliable and I would seriously recommend it. It's one of the main indicators used in Tokyo trading rooms so works extra well with Yen based pairs.

There are some good vids on Youtube and if you like I can send you a couple of ebooks/PDFs.
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