EurAnalysis

Risk off this morning. Money flowing into US$ and US bonds. No E$ chart this morning. Not even close to any supply or demand area I'm looking for on the daily and the spike last week invalidated the last zone.

China didn't lower the RRR again which started the "risk off" slide in the Aussie and commodities.

IIF and Greece still kicking the debt swap deal now saying they should finish it this week. IMHO I think they will kick this can until the last minute and come up with some 11th hour deal.

Any guess for the next stop when we will get some doji, IB, indecission bars?

so Bruce how does the economy recover in the US with that much debt and "monetary easing"?


dow tipped 12500 median as we speak. and kiwi has cleared 8160 previous low - now lower low. trend of bears today continues.

watch euro yen nearing 100

Monday, January 30, 2012 8:45:07 AM
By Yigal Grayeff and the Market Currents team
ABB to buy Thomas & Betts for $3.9B. Swiss engineering group ABB (ABB) has agreed to buy U.S. electrical components maker Thomas & Betts (TNB) for $3.9B in a deal that will expand ABB's North American distribution network and ramp up its presence in the market for low-voltage equipment. The $72-a-share offer represents a 24% premium to Thomas' close on Friday.
Exxon to sell Japan refining unit for $3.9B. Exxon (XOM) has agreed to sell its Japanese refining and marketing business to TonenGeneral Sekiyu for $3.9B. Under the deal, Exxon will lose its controlling stake in TonenGeneral but will retain a 22% voting share. The divestment underscores a larger trend of oil companies shedding refining businesses and turning to exploration in the hope of boosting profits.
Large U.S. bank exposure to GIIPS $80B+. Five major banks - JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) - have over $80B of exposure to the EU GIIPS, a New York Times analysis shows, although the number falls to $50B when the banks' CDS insurance policies are included. However, some market participants are skeptical that the CDS system will work properly during massive instability.
EU to finalize rescue fund. EU leaders will sign off on a permanent eurozone rescue fund at a summit today and are expected to agree on a balanced budget rule. Greece will also dominate the talks, although the leaders will try to force the conversation to job creation and growth. Greece and its private creditors are apparently close to a debt-swap deal.
Parsons mulls quitting as Citi Chairman. Citigroup (C) Chairman Richard Parsons is reportedly considering stepping down after three years on the job. It may be a bullish sign for Citi's health, as Parsons, who helped lead the company through the financial crisis, has said in the past he would stay until the company is on solid ground. A decision is expected by early March.
Apollo-Riverstone group frontrunner for $7B El Paso unit. A consortium including P-E firms Apollo (APO) and Riverstone reportedly leads the race for El Paso's (EP) oil-exploration unit and is in advanced negotiations to buy the ops for $7B. The business is being sold as part of El Paso's acquisition by Kinder Morgan (KMI), which is also considering breaking the unit up.
China gives mixed messages about stability. China's debt is "generally safe and controllable," Premier Wen Jiabao said in comments released today. That's a sharp contrast to a weekend report from the National Audit Office, which warned of "unignorable" risks in some areas of the economy and said it isn't yet balanced, coordinated or sustainable.
Philips makes net loss and warns about 2012. Philips (PHG) swung to a Q4 net loss of €162M ($214.1M) from a net profit €463M a year earlier even though sales rose 3.2% to €6.71B. The loss was greater than analysts expected and included a €272M charge related to the sale of Philips' TV unit. CEO Frans van Houten warned of a difficult first half, due to the "uncertainty in the global economy, and in Europe in particular." Shares were -2.4% premarket.
Union threatens refinery strike. The United Steelworkers union has warned of the increasing chance of a strike on Wednesday by refinery workers in one or more locations if there's no progress in contract talks for a new three-year deal. The unions have expressed concern about safety protections for workers.
SEC probes Deutsche Bank over mortgage bond. The SEC is reportedly investigating a CDO transaction in which Deutsche Bank (DB) allowed hedge fund Paulson & Co. to select mortgage-backed securities and then bet against those securities without telling other investors. Goldman Sachs settled a similar suit with the SEC for $500M.
UBS set to face action over rogue trader. UBS (UBS) is likely to face enforcement proceedings from a joint probe by British and Swiss regulators, The Wall Street Journal reports, due to oversight gaps that enabled employee Kweku Adoboli to make unauthorized trades last year that led to $2.3B in losses and the resignation of then-CEO Oswald Grubel. The probe should be completed in mid-February. Adoboli today pleaded not guilty to fraud and false accounting.
Hopes of recovering all of MF client cash receding. Officials are still looking for $1.2B of MF Global's (MFGLQ.PK) missing customer money, but increasingly believe that much of it will never be recovered. Sources say a "significant amount" of the money could have "vaporized" as a result of chaotic trading during the week before the company's bankruptcy filing.
Sandberg: Facebook IPO to help create more jobs. Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg yesterday said one of most important aspects of the social network's IPO is the jobs and social change it will bring about. The company has already helped create 450,000 jobs in Europe and the U.S., Sandberg said. Her comments came after reports on Friday said Facebook is preparing to announce an IPO on Wednesday that could value the company at $100B.
Four banks shut down. Regulators closed two banks in Tennessee and one each in Florida and Minnesota on Friday, with the total cost to the FDIC's insurance fund estimated at a combined $607M.

Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan -0.5% to 8793. Hong Kong -1.7% to 20160. China -1.5% to 2285. India -2.1% to 16863.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -0.6%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.5%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -0.4% to $99.18. Gold -0.7% to $1720.20.

Monday's economic calendar:
8:30 Chicago Midwest Mfg. Index
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook

Hi guys just thought i'd pop in and say hello. Well i have had a great start to week e/u dropped the 40 pips i needed PLUS i been playing with small lots with DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT and that has been productive, when i come back from london i can post some of these trades. Take care and happy trading

Bring your IB

Miss u Billyt

Hello Sweety

There are no NEW jobs being created to help resolve the problem. The housing market is not at the bottom as yet. The debt has to be cut or we will see another Greece or Italy shortly.

The USA is losing it as relates to being the ONLY Reserve Currency of the world.

There is only ONE GOAL now for the US Government and the FED and MOST Politicians.

KEEP UP THE GAME UNTIL THE FIRST TUESDAY IN NOVEMBER 2012...

Then we keep our MONEY and our Power for 4 more years or until we see the USA spring and One Day we will.

There is NO SOLUTION PERIOD as long as spending is out of control and the Politicians from both parties are in control.

Then we have the INSANE CARD which is the Federal Reserve.

They are the REAL GOVERNMENT as long as Americans keep bending over.

There is some very interesting similarity to the USA and Greece. I cannot explain it here until my good friend, Buma reaches 16 on February 3, 2013 and I will be 69 and loving it.

Hi buddy, the small lot trades i did were DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT cross overs which i pointed out to you last week (i think)lol, and not ibs. i believe DM i sgood at showing beginnings of trends

Holding from 1.3220 ... I'm now a Marathon Player

So you mean soon we are going to start a new class about DM?

catch you guys later, take care

yes indeed, it is promising . i think wilder started it anyway be good and read up on it, byeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Kiss bye billyt

Do Not Consent to Be Ruled

Those who support democracy tend to conflate the issue of the method of selection of rulers with the preliminary question of whether political power is legitimate in the first place. Hence, it needs to be clearly understood that objection to democratic rule does not mean that one prefers dictatorship — it means than one does not consent to have others initiate force against them, regardless of the method of selection of those with the power to do this. Indeed, one may quite rightly prefer democracy to dictatorship while still regarding both of these systems as inferior to a society without political rulers.

If you are inclined to believe that democracy will function justly when "the right people" are elected, then bear in mind that each political party is elected precisely because its candidates are regarded as the best people available by the majority at the time. Look around you at the people who are elected, and look at the actions of these people. This is your democracy, and the destruction and domination occurring under its imprimatur are the natural consequences of the view that the desires of the mob should override the rights of the individual.

When chatting about this issue with my hosts over late-night drinks, I was one-too-many beers away from sobriety to put the case well. But if I had mustered the presence of mind to do so, I would have told them that instead of concerning themselves with how their rulers should be chosen, they have another choice available to them: reject the idea that you require rulers at all!

http://mises.org/store/Assets/ProductImages/SS184.jpg



Most people don't spend their Friday nights snorting lines of cocaine. But virtually every adult person contravenes the ubiquitous regulations of democratic government at many times in their life.

And regardless of their actions, everyone living under unlimited democracy is treated as the property of the government, with rights that are disposable at the whims of the mob. Under democracy, everyone is subject to the rule of any group that can acquire large numbers and become adept at capturing political power.

People still have not absorbed the lesson of democracy that should have been learned when Socrates was condemned to death by his fellow Athenians for his impiety.[5] Might is not right: whether expressed through raw physical power or through the voting booth, it is illegitimate and undesirable for people to aggress against their fellow human beings. Rejecting the rule of the mob is an important step towards peace and prosperity.
Ben O'Neill is a lecturer in statistics at the University of New South Wales (ADFA) in Canberra, Australia. He has formerly practiced as a lawyer and as a political adviser in Canberra. He is a Templeton Fellow at the Independent Institute, where he won first prize in the 2009 Sir John Templeton Fellowship essay contest. Send him mail. See Ben O'Neill's article archives.

my latest view on euro.......

News for EU today not looking so good however, this thing looking oversold at this point so with the hopium maybe it cracks 1.32 definitively today? Pushing it's way toward 1.33?

I'm just saying with the Euro anything is possible? And it is oversold up to the 1 hr (and just about there on the 4 hr too) so its due for some upside for remainder of US session?

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120130158451/

Snippet:

Euro extends its broad based pull back as it's looking unlikely that Greece would agree on anything solid today ahead of the EU summit and the negotiation would possibly drag on for at least a few more days. Meanwhile, Greek Finance minister Venizelos firmly rejected Germany's proposal for EU to take control over Greece's budget on national sovereignty. Risk markets are also facing some pressure from selloff in European banks stocks. Dollar index managed to recover but after all it's still staying well below 80 psychological level. US equities are set to open lower today and DOW is expected to extend it's pull back after failing 12876 key resistance last week.

Bank stocks led European markets lower after French President Sarkozy said that France will unilaterally impose a 0.1% transaction tax from August onwards. EC has been proposing a 0.1% tax on equity and bond transactions and 0.01% tax on derivatives. However, that's not confirmed yet as EU finance ministers will be discussing it in March. Sarkozy has been impatient on dragging on this issue and stepped up it's campaign. However, the tax, being a France only levy, is facing strong opposition from the financial sector in the country. The French Banking Federation said earlier this month that "A tax that's limited to France would weigh on growth, lead to a loss of competitiveness, and create a heavy handicap for the financing of the French economy."

Italy's bond auctions were well received today just after it's downgraded by Fitch by 2 notches to A- from A+ last week. Italy raised EUR 7.5b, near the top of its maximum target. EUR 2b of benchmark 10-year bond was sold with yield at 6.08%, impressively down from December's 6.98%. Bid-to-cover ratio was at 1.4 times, not spectacular though. The country also sold EUR 3.57b of 5-year bonds today with yield at 5.39%, sharply lower than prior auctions' 6.47% in December. Also, EUR 1.9 b of 2016 and 2021 bonds were sold. Belgium will sell EUR EUR 1.8b of 105-day bills and EUR 1.2b of 168-day debt tomorrow. Germany will sell EUR 5b of 10 year bonds on Wednesday. France will auction October EUR 8.3b of bills today and October 2018, October 2020, and April 2022 debt on Thursday. Spain will sell as much as EUR 4b of July 2015, October 2016 and January 2017 bonds on Thursday.

On the data front, US personal income rose more than expected by 0.5% in December while spending was flat. Headline PCE moderated to 2.4% yoy versus expectation of 2.3% yoy. Core PCE accelerated to 1.8% yoy. Eurozone confidence indicators were mixed in general.

1.3080 is playing a role here ... what I see is a small upward retrace ..but bearish close of the Daily bar ...