EurAnalysis

Till Eur find the Orange Spot ... lol ...

probably

I think time for securing profit on Selling E/U ... Price is in indecision on Lower 100 R ... I am keeping mine with Stop @ 1.3158 ... Otherwise expecting more down to this pair atleast re-test @ 1.3080.

already break my trend line..im ready to sell any retracement from here...bu

i hope snb not spoil it..hahaha

Euro Gains Still Classified As Corrective; Dollar to Resume Broader Uptrend


Euro could still push higher but additional upside limited

Greece talks still of key importance; EU Summit could offer resolution

China remains at risk for a more aggressive slowdown

Australian Dollar could start to underperform as equities look top heavy

Fitch places four Aussie banks on negative rating watch

read more...

http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...d_body_eur.png

Overnight as negative views came back from positive hope for Greece and PSI agreement all but guaranteed from Davos, reality bites so far this morning.

I see EUR/USD Trader went long at 1.3175 on January 30, 2012 at 00:56:00 and there target is 1.3450 with there stop at 1.3070.

I point that out only to make the record clear on that call and where everyone knew support and resistance was. I find their Technical Signifigance numbers more useful than their calls. They show 1.3244 as 38.2% of October- January Slide. At the time of their last update 6:24:02 AM this morning their price showed at 1.3113 with the 55 MA at 1.3111 and MY Round Number Support at 1.3100. The Daily LOW which we all watch is 1.3081 on January 27, 2012. We all know now that short covering moved EUR/USD up on Friday in thin markets and thicker BS coming out of Davos.

Now back to reality and the opening numbers that I use aside from Chart Numbers.

These are my REAL NUMBERS and they are as follows...

These numbers change by the minute so in effect they move PERCEPTIONS around based on what seems to be happening very very short term. You can call it a 1 minute chart.

EUR/USD 1.3120
EUR/JPY 100.55
USD/JPY 76.64

I show EUR/CHF at 1.2052 and I include it because of stated INTERVENTION number at 1.2000 and for USD/JPY if it gets below 76.00 then the BOJ to keep their credibility needs to act.

Dow Futures are down and ALL of Europe is down. The Dow Futures are down 70 now. Gold is down some at $1,722.05 as there is some early strength in US Dollar Index made up of 57.6 % Euro composition.

Oil is holding around $99.00 US Spot and is down. We can conclude that Risk is off for the moment.

Now to my MONEY FLOW numbers which is .21% for the 2 Year US Bonds and the Yield on the 10 Year US Bonds is 1.84% with the spread 163 Basis points.

You can call these numbers as the Goalposts and as the Markets open up for trading at 9:30 AM with no real US news today as the money flows in and out of the US Bonds which is easy to see by watching the Yields change on the 2 Year (Short Term) and 10 Year (Longer Term)

Watch the Correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and if EUR/JPY goes below 100.00 we are back to where we were recently and it is a break point for lower EUR/USD.

It is important to have a record of these numbers each hour up until NOON as they move around you can see where the MONEY IS FLOWING and which Asset Classes are moving and in which direction.

This is different from Price Action since there is much more information given by watching these numbers.

The charts change with the MONEY FLOW and if any of the Support or Resistance numbers are breached EVERYONE will change their charts.

I have tried to give a more detailed description so it would be clearer to anyone interested.

There is other things to be AWARE of between 7:00 AM and NOON today.

US Data coming out at 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM if any of importance. The open of the markets at 9:30 AM which is where the MONEY FLOW kicks in. Option Expiry at 10:00 AM EST each day of trading between Monday and Friday. There is a LARGE OPTION at 1.3250 as reported.

Then We have the closing of the Europe Markets at 11:30 AM EST and LESS MONEY FLOW and the closing of open positions and finally at NOON most if not all large traders are gone for the day. We have LUNCH HOUR in North America and then the last three hours up to and including Rollover time each day at 5:00 PM EST...

That is My Morning Report...

New H4 opened below 100 Regression Mean ...

barrier options at 3250 bruce? probably defended at open lol

these negative numbers keep on comin ...

german consumer price index data



recap :
italian auction dissapointing.
greece needs extra 15billion - rejected by germans

Sorry Swede I am teasing now. I mean you probably know more about it than myself. It is not that hard to understand and the information is available. The report was that there was a large ? Over One Billion ? Call Option at 1.3250

That means someone sold an option with the Strike Price set at 1.3250 and if the price does not reach that level they keep their One Billion Euro's ? and bank the profit on the sold call. If it gets over they can be called to sell at 1.3250...

Is that more or less how it is Swede ?

Have a great day my dear young soon to be 15 years old Grandson...

time flies fast doesn't it?

... 15 in 4 days.



dow jones breaks minor daily trendline - also near 12500 median. should be interesting.

weekly s1 is at 12400.

Eurnzd would love to hunt those 1.6000 stops on some bear news.
euraud also near roud number 1.2400.

bad news might see a lot of stops liquidated into shorts all acroos the board

Here first are the comments that came in my email from Larry Levin...

Last Friday’s GDP sounded good at a reading of +2.8%; however, it missed the consensus of 3.0% and the details aren’t very good. The main concern is inventory rebuilding of 1.94%, which when backed out nets real GDP to just 0.86%.

In addition to the concerning large inventory rebuild, the services sector grew at just 0.2%. When the economy is said to 70% “services related,” this is a very bad sign. Although economists wouldn’t agree with the following, I have to say that the next important data point was a good sign: federal spending was DOWN 7%.

Goldman Sachs wasn’t very impressed either and not just because its estimate was 3.3%.

BOTTOM LINE: Q4 GDP growth slightly worse than expected. Compared to our forecasts, details showed more inventory growth, less consumer spending and less business investment.
MAIN POINTS:

1. Real GDP increased by 2.8% (annualized) in Q4, a bit weaker than the consensus had expected. The composition of growth was slightly negative for the Q1 outlook, in our view. Growth in domestic final sales--GDP less inventories and net trade--was just +0.9%, in contrast to our expectations for +2.0%. The weakness reflected: (1) slightly weaker than expected consumer spending of +2.0%; (2) weaker than expected business fixed investment, reflecting a 7.2% decline in structures investment; and (3) a 12.5% contraction in federal government spending on national defense. National defense spending tends to be volatile, and we would therefore discount this component as a signal about the near-term growth outlook. The misses on consumer spending and business investment are arguably more meaningful.

2. Among the other details, inventories increased by $56bn during the quarter, adding 1.9 percentage points (pp) to GDP growth--much more than we had expected. In contrast, net exports actually subtracted 0.1pp from growth. We had forecast a positive contribution from net trade of +0.5pp. GDP excluding motor vehicles increased by 2.5%, implying that the rebound in the auto sector added 0.3pp to growth.

3. The GDP price index increased by just 0.4% (annualized) in Q4, far below consensus expectations for a 1.9% increase. Nominal GDP growth was therefore quite soft at just +3.2%. The core PCE price index rose by 1.1%, slightly above consensus forecasts.

It sure sounds like GDP growth is slowing quite a bit and could quickly lead to another “official” recession. Did the last ever end? This could be the reason why Bernanke recently said he would keep interest rates at zero for the foreseeable future.


Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.



Kno's Comments:

This happens all the time. The cheerleaders usually on CNBC have the information. To keep their job long term markets need to go up or else there is less need for CNBC and all the staff. That is fine and is normal. Their mindset is usually positive.

They help frame the SPIN short term until there is time to go further into the numbers as is done here.

No one will remember what happened if they just watched that program other than saying HEY 2.8% is not too bad. False views continue on until new reports come out. However those getting their news only from CNBC never hear about the REAL NUMBERS...

EUR/USD is at 1.3105 and EUR/JPY is at 100.49 and Dow Futures are down 79 with the Yields holding steady...

Slash slash and slash

There is even more live on http://talking-forex.com/live.html
There is live broadcast about forex events.

15 Years Old On Friday February 3, 2012...

What do you want for your Birthday other than a 16 Year Old Young Lady ?

i wnat to be a better son - a better brother - a better trader - a better friend - a more disciplined person - a more mature one as well.

just want to be better person overall Bruce..
i also wanna meet you and soem other firends... . dont know if i can YET... huh..


euro stop hunt.

covered for 23+.

Show me 1.29

http://www.onethousandpaintings.com/...number_129.png

U forget the .

I wonder WHY this topic is not the focus of the political debates in the USA ? Ron Paul and not many others bring up Sound Money.

Here is comments from a valued commodity trader whose track record backs up his thoughts. I posted a link on Sunday from Doug Noland of Prudent Bear.

I guess the Status Quo is fine until it is not.

Looks like we might TEST 1.3070 GOOD CALL EUR/USD Trader...

FED MOVES SEND THE U.S. DOLLAR TO NEW LOWS MOVE, GOLD AND SILVER SHARPLY HIGHER!

The overall message from the Fed was fairly straightforward:

The U.S. central bank is skeptical that a slew of positive indicators herald the kind of economic growth that would meaningfully lower an elevated unemployment rate.

As a result...

MR. BERNANKE SAID -

Quantitative easing is “an option that certainly is on the table,” “It would be premature definitively to say one way or the other, but we continue to look at that option. If conditions warrant, we will certainly consider using it."

_______________________________________________________________________

IN MY OPINION...

THIS DANGEROUS MOVE/POLICY HAS DEFINED THE FED AS BEING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEEDER THAT WILL FUEL INFLATION HERE IN 2012.

THIS INSANE POLICY "MONETARY EASING" WILL OFFER NO RELIEF FOR THE AVERAGE AMERICAN CONSUMER AS COMMODITIES, FOOD AND ENERGY WILL SKYROCKET AND CONSUMERS WILL HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO DEFENSE TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AGAINST MEGA-INFLATION.

AS LONG AS THE FED CONTINUES THESE DANGEROUS POLICIES TO SUPPRESS LONG TERM INTEREST RATES AND MAKE BORROWING CHEAPER THIS LONG TERM BULL "COMMODITIES" WILL FLOURISH.

From Doug Noland...

When it comes to Credit and Bubble analysis, the Fed has proven itself incompetent. After the Fed-induced steep yield curve from 1991 to early-1994 fomented a destabilizing speculative Bubble, they should have focused keenly on how their policy measures were inciting leveraging and speculation. After the 1995 Mexican bailout further emboldened speculative excess and fomented the catastrophic Bubble throughout SE Asia (and beyond), policymakers should have been fixated on the risks associated with destabilizing “hot money” flows, derivatives and a ballooning global “leveraged speculating community.” After the LTCM fiasco, the danger was conspicuous. It was also conspicuously apparent that the LTCM bailout and the Federal Reserve market backstop were instrumental in inciting the tech Bubble. And the Fed’s response to that burst Bubble was integral to the scope of the mortgage finance Bubble. As obvious as this chain of cause and effect has been, the Fed dogmatically refuses to have any part of such analysis.

I have seen overwhelming support for the “global government finance Bubble” thesis. Fiscal and monetary policy has been out of control for going on four years now. And with parallels to the mortgage finance Bubble, the more prolonged the Bubble period the more dismissive the crowd becomes to the notion that they might be participants to a manic Bubble. That’s ok. As an analyst of speculative Bubbles, I am well aware of the nuances. Objectively, it is possible to recognize Bubble dynamics in real time. Realistically, however, it is the nature of things that this analysis will be dismissed and disparaged. As I’ve written in the past, “Bubbles tend to go to unimaginable extremes - and then double!” I am comfortable with the analysis that we are in the late stage of a historic global financial mania.