EurAnalysis

ok for me....
before this azumi had mention japan will probably intervene againt euro...but since euro is above 100..i think maybe not

the porblem now is the dollar yen...it is still go down....and risk to test postwar low......

azumi should intervene in near term..and japan will get bigger problem if they intervene beloww or at 75 because...at that point...actually is hard to change the trend again unless the speculator or yen carry is unwinding their dollar againt yen....hehe

When the news was released the first reaction was a strong move up in Gold as I pointed out. That happened since it meant that the US Dollar would stay weak through the printing of more money out of thin air. As the US Dollar is debased more as has happened since December 23, 1913 the store of wealth in Gold and Silver increases. The FED was created then. The 3RD FED since 1776.

Up until 1999 when the Price of Gold was near $250 US the Powers That Be had found a method to keep Gold down through INTERVENTION in the Paper Comex Market. GATA has proven this now beyond a shadow of a doubt. Gold has risen from $250 US to $1,738.75 US Spot because of the continual printing of money by the FED.

Gold is NOT IN A BUBBLE !!!

The Markets at first reacted in a Positive Way as WE had Risk On and most Asset Classes went up in value. However there was another factor in PLAY as the US Bonds went up in value. That other factor was the FRONT RUNNING being done by the US Bond Dealers such as Goldman Sachs and others mandated to do that job by the US Government. Goldman Sachs and the US Government being ONE AND THE SAME for all practical purposes.

The US Dollar Index went DOWN as other Asset Classes rode up with Risk On again because of the FED confirming they would continue STIMULUS by keeping Interest Rates LOW until 2014.

When the MONEY leaves the US Bonds as the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds was showing along with the 10 Year US Bonds and the 30 Year US Bonds. US Dollars are sold to buy other Asset Classes such as Gold and Euro. However we ALL know it is RISKY to buy Euro at the moment because of the PIIGS...

That is another factor that must be dealt with. Now back to the US Dollar Index which went DOWN and the Bond Yields going down also as US Bonds were CLEARLY BEING BOUGHT !!!

How Is This Possible ?

Here is the ANSWER and the CRUX of my comments.

The US Goverment through the FED as their legal agent since December of 1913 even though it is against the US Constitution, TOLD the 5 MAJOR US BOND DEALERS that they had the GREEN LIGHT to FRONT RUN and BUY the US Bonds NOW for INVENTORY at a good price and later on the FED would BUY the PAPER (YES PAPER NOT GOLD) back from them at a profit.

Since the Money came from their OWN FUNDS taken from the American People by FRAUD (My Comments) they had the liquid money most likely parked in Money Market Funds and SO US Bonds went up in price as Yields went down. The US Dollar Index also went down by the Sell Off of The US Bonds because of Risk On again. However because of the FRONT RUNNING of the US Bond Dealers OTHER CASH was used to buy the US Bonds.

This is the only explanation that I can think of to explain why the US Dollar Index went down while US Bonds were bought which usually means RISK OFF !!!

I will stop now to have my breakfast and allow time for anyone intersted to read my posts and offer comments or ask questions or even disagree if you wish.

Have a GREAT TRADING WEEK !!!

Usually they might sell Yen and Buy Euro however we are not in usual times. They might sell Yen and buy Gold ? We will only KNOW once we see what other Asset Class went UP in value. INTERVENTIONS only work Short Term as has been proven from the past events. Stay tuned and Stay alert and watch the value of other Asset Classes to see where the MONEY IS FLOWING.. Perhaps they will buy the US Dollar ?

KEEP IN MIND the Real Powers That Be are UP TO NO GOOD and they ALL leave Davos today...

yes....i think so...maybe japan get a permission from g20 n g7 at davos for join intervention..who know.s...hahhaa

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...s_for_135.html

Snippet:

It is shaping up to be a make-or-break week for the resurgent Euro as a key European summit and US employment data headlines a busy week of event risk for forex markets. To get a sense for what we can expect, we take a look at what has happened thus far.


The Euro started this past week noticeably lower, but the EURUSD never looked back as it finished almost exactly at fresh multi-month highs through Friday’s close. The coming days could prove pivotal for the recently fast-rising Euro exchange rate, and it is little exaggeration to say that the coming days may decide whether the EURUSD stages a much larger recovery.


A European summit on Monday could set the pace for the Euro as we enter the new month of February, while Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls figures could likewise influence the Euro and broader financial markets. Markets are tired of listening to Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy, and fellow Euro Zone leaders commit to vague action plans for the sake of the Euro Zone. In other words – talk is cheap. The focus remains on whether Monday’s summit nails down commitments on the preliminary agreements set forth in the pivotal December meetings. Lack of real solutions could potentially derail the Euro’s sudden recovery.


The later US Nonfarm Payrolls report is always difficult to predict, and it is even more difficult to forecast how markets will react to the data. That said, a wave of stronger-than-expected US economic news leaves forecasts on the high side and there is ample room for disappointment. It seems that investors are growing increasingly complacent as the US S&P 500 trades steadily towards multi-year highs. Such strength in financial market risk appetite has reduced demand for the safe-haven US Dollar and boosted the relative attractiveness of the Euro. We believe that a sharply worse-than-expected NFP data print could have an important effect on the S&P 500. Given strong cross-market correlations, a bad labor numbers could potentially spark USD strength.


In the absence of major fundamental shifts, recent trends favor further Euro recovery versus the US Dollar. This isn’t to say that the Euro Zone crisis is in any way resolved; the opposite may be true as Greece faces the real short-term risk of a hard default. Yet the financial and popular media is saturated with stories about threats to the Euro Zone and to the single currency itself. In other words, the Euro may have reached a bearish sentiment extreme and is currently seeing an important near-term recovery.


One only needs to look at CFTC Commitment of Trader data to see evidence of a Euro sentiment extreme. Non-commercial futures traders, typically large speculators, are their most net-short Euros against the US Dollar in history and by a wide margin. Sentiment extremes and market turns are only clear in hindsight, but continued EURUSD short covering could potentially take the single currency to further highs. Now that the Euro has broken above key resistance at $1.3198, there seem to be few hard price levels until December’s high of $1.3548.


To be absolutely clear: we are still quite bearish on Euro fundamentals and believe the longer-term downtrend remains the most important. Yet markets like to overshoot in both directions, and there are real risks that the EURUSD could shake out further bears before resuming its downtrend. Needless to say, the coming week could prove pivotal for the resurgent Euro exchange rate. – DR

Kno's Comments:


The above is a good review since it puts all possibilities out there and now the Markets will decide based on new news or information or spin or whatever. The KEY is to be AWARE of as much as possible.

This concludes my preparation for the start of a new week of curremcy trading.

I hope my posts this morning help some of you to understand better the nature of this game and business called "FOREX"

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3228...dispatch&ifp=0

Snippet:

Recent reporting from the Guardian also seems to hint at a greater probability of default than what is priced in the financial markets. Excerpts from a January 25 Guardian interview with Angela Merkel are below:

Angela Merkel has cast doubt for the first time on Europe's chances of saving Greece from financial meltdown and sovereign default, conceding that Europe's first ever multibillion euro bailout coupled with savage austerity was not working after a two-year crisis that has brought the single currency to the brink of unravelling.

"We haven't overcome the crisis yet. Of course, there's Greece, a special case where, despite all the efforts that have been made, neither the Greeks themselves nor the international community have yet managed to stabilize the situation."

"There would be no point in promising more and more money without tackling the causes of the crisis," said Merkel. "Amid all the billions in financial assistance and rescue packages, we Germans also need to watch that we don't run out of steam. After all, our capacities aren't infinite, and overstretching ourselves wouldn't help us or the EU as a whole."

if this is real...tomorow market will be more interesting..hehhe

keywords
"We haven't overcome the crisis yet. ,

Greeks themselves nor the international community have yet managed to stabilize the situation."

"There would be no point in promising more and more money ,


we Germans also need to watch that we don't run out of steam. our capacities aren't infinite, and overstretching ourselves wouldn't help us or the EU as a whole."


its always about the reaction and the sentiment. greece was a threat the whole time - but euro is resilient - but then again for how long. they delay their expected demise for far too long i presume. how long can you keep carrying a burden before letting it go?

(im just assuming greece is becoming a burden for the rest of the EU based on kno's post and merkel's comments).

Japan doesn't ask for permission. They give warning in advance that they will intervene and do it when they feel the time is right. The only problem with interventions is that they tend to be short lived. As the market adjust and the underlying forces take hold again price tends, more often than not, to move back to where it was before the intervention.

yes.

except the Snb. their reserves for an intervention is much larger and i think their power to intervene are just much greater.

i wonder why japan doesn't hold a floor like the SNB?

huhu..yes agree

hi ,, i will short the euro this week for 2 days then buy with 13800 Target
GL

In the whole Euro mess, we finally are getting some honesty. And it's from a big player -- Germany. It's about time.

Merkel warns Greek rescue may fail as she calls for closer ties to prevent financial meltdown

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz1krRK6Rtb

It simply may not be possible to prevent default.

Don't know why Japan doesn't set a solid floor. As you've seen with the SNB setting a solid floor has a psychological edge to it that halps keep price away from that area and reduces how often SNB has to intervene.

It's not necessary to cut and paste the article if you send us the link. If everyone did this we would have 3 posts per page.

But thanks

Looking at the current environment we are in, I feel much more comfortable holding my physical gold and silver than my $ or €. It always makes me laugh when some numa numa guys come and say to me "hey, you can't eat gold", all our civilisation is based on trust and at least i'm holding something that has long history of trust and what big boys want even today. And those who want to argue about it then please, I don't need your doomsday scenario where there is no food in stores and i can't buy food with my gold, come on...
And even if such thing happens, I'm prepared, can get my clean water and food in the table.
No gold bubble in current environment.

LONDON (Dow Jones)--European Union leaders will gather in Brussels on Monday to finalize accords creating a permanent bailout mechanism and enforcing greater fiscal discipline among members while also seeking to tackle slow growth and high unemployment.
But talks among the 27 EU leaders may be overshadowed by a looming deal between Greece and its creditors to halve its privately held debt amid signs that the debt restructuring could be sealed ahead of the meeting.
Greece and its private-sector creditors were edging closer to an agreement over the EUR100 billion debt write-down Friday after bond holders indicated they may accept lower yields on their future holdings of Greek debt. The deal must be reached by the end of the month for Greece to make an offer for a bond exchange to its creditors by Feb. 13 and avoid default on a major bond redemption next month. However, before then, Greek political leaders must provide written assurances to the country's senior official lenders that they will abide by tough reforms, regardless of who wins a pending election likely to be held in April.
This is the known worry list:
--Monday, Jan. 30: E.U. leaders' summit. Italian, Belgian bond auctions.
--Tuesday, Jan. 31: Greece aims to conclude talks detailing new EUR130 billion loan deal, debt-exchange program with private-sector creditors by this date.
--Wednesday, Feb. 1: EUR25.8 billion of Italian BTP bonds due. Portuguese T-bill auction. German bond auction. Euro-zone January manufacturing PMI data.
--Thursday, Feb. 2: Spanish and French bond auctions.
--Friday, Feb. 3: Euro-zone January services PMI data.
--Monday, Feb. 6: Italian parliament must have approved government's fiscal, growth package by this date.
--Wednesday, Feb. 8: German bond auction.
--Thursday, Feb. 9: ECB interest-rate statement, press conference.
--Friday, Feb. 10: EUR1.0 billion in Greek debt maturing.
--Monday, Feb. 13: Deadline for formal Greek debt restructuring offer to creditors. Italian T-bill auction.
--Tuesday, Feb. 14: Italian BTP auction. Greek and Spanish T-bill auctions. German February ZEW economic sentiment indicator.
--Wednesday, Feb. 15: Portuguese T-bill auction. Flash data on fourth-quarter EU gross domestic product.
--Thursday, Feb. 16: French and Spanish bond auctions. Spain fourth-quarter final gross domestic product data.
--Friday, Feb. 17: EUR1.6 billion Greek T-bills maturing.
--Monday, Feb. 20: Euro-zone finance ministers meet. Flash euro-zone February PMI data.
--Tuesday, Feb. 21: European Union finance ministers meet. Greek and Spanish T-bill auctions.
--Wednesday, Feb. 22: German bond auction.
--Thursday, Feb. 23: German February Ifo business climate index.
--Friday, Feb. 24: Italian bond auction.
--Saturday, Feb. 25: Group of 20 finance ministers, central-bank governors meet.
--Monday, Feb. 27: Belgian bond auction, Italian T-bill auction.
--Tuesday, Feb. 28: ECB three-month, three-year long-term refinancing operation. Italian bond auction.
--Wednesday, Feb. 29: EUR10.6 billion of Italian CTZ bonds mature. German bond auction.
--Thursday, March 1: EUR14.9 billion of Italian BTP and EUR12.3 billion CCT bonds mature. Euro-zone February manufacturing PMI data. Spanish and French bond auctions.
--Thursday, March 1-Friday, March 2: E.U. leaders summit.
--Monday, March 5: Euro-zone February services PMI data.
--Tuesday, March 6: Revised E.U. fourth-quarter GDP growth data.
--Wednesday, March 7: German bond auction.
--Thursday, March 8: ECB interest rate decision. German January industrial production data.
--Monday, March 12: Euro-zone finance ministers meet.
--Tuesday, March 13: German March ZEW economic sentiment indicator. Italian and Greek T-bill auctions.
--Wednesday, March 14: Italian bond auction.
--Thursday, March 15: Spanish and French bond auctions.
--Tuesday, March 20: EUR14.4 billion of Greek government bonds mature. Spanish and Greek T-bill auctions.
--Wednesday, March 21: German bond auction.
--Thursday, March 22: Flash euro-zone March PMI data.
--Monday, March 26: German March Ifo business climate index. Belgium bond auction.
--Tuesday, March 27: Spanish T-bill auction. Italian bond auction.
--Wednesday, March 28: ECB three-month long-term refinancing operation. Italian T-bill auction.
--Thursday, March 29: Italian bond auction.
--Friday, March 30: Euro-zone finance ministers meet.

======================================================
I am already on short on Eur @1.3165. Might be wrong decision to hold it over weekend. I think might add buy position in another correlated pair E/J to hedge few lots, depending upon movement before London Open
Any thoughts/suggestions? :S

My point of the post and the link was and is to share my knowledge and experience. I would be willing to hazard a guess that very few people understand what really is going on. When I hear an economist or another experienced commentator saying the FED might soon confirm QE3 what other conclusion is there. He/She has not done their homework. I went to great lengths taking my time and energy to explain to anyone interested in the truth and to get their own edge.

I have yet to see anyone explain things the way that I explained it this morning in great detail. Of course there are very knowledgeable and sophisticated traders and analyst's around. However do not expect them to come here onto this thread and spend hours informing you of reality.

I have already explained why I do it. I did not take your post as negative.

I just wanted to explain the purpose of my post this morning. Do not take everything you read at face value or even as the truth. There are too many things going on behind the scenes right now. I am an excellent researcher and I have the desire and interest to look for the truth to help me earn profits in my business.

Most if not all humans have a hidden agenda. The wealthier they are the more hidden is the agenda. About three months ago George Soros said he was selling all his Gold and it appeared he did. Hr also made a heck of a lot by selling. So far so good. Then Denis Gartman jumps on board and he is also out of Gold. Gold sells off and people panic and that serves the Central Banks and China very well.

Now this article comes out and I post the link...

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2012...-george-soros/

Snippet:

“. . .’At times like these, survival is the most important thing,’ he [George Soros] says, peering through his owlish glasses and brushing wisps of gray hair off his forehead. He doesn’t just mean it’s time to protect your assets. He means it’s time to stave off disaster. As he sees it, the world faces one of the most dangerous periods of modern history—a period of ‘evil.’ Europe is confronting a descent into chaos and conflict. In America he predicts riots on the streets that will lead to a brutal clampdown that will dramatically curtail civil liberties. The global economic system could even collapse altogether.”

MK comment: It is difficult to understand how an individual thinking like this would ignore owning physical gold in the form of coins and bullion — Soros’ ownership of which the author of the article linked below denies. Much ado was made of Soros past comments on gold as “the ultimate asset bubble,” and his subsequent disposal of ETF gold holdings — something which has since been quantified as having occurred in the early months of 2011. If so, the legendary Soros left a good bit still on the table, since gold traded at the time in the $1300 to $1400 range.

Sometimes the constant drip of the news becomes background noise, until somebody says something that serves as a wake-up call. Though the writer of this article attempts to transpose Soros’ remarks to something akin to a call for political action, I detect something else going on — something deeply personal for Soros, and something of which we should all take note. Like so many of us, he seems to have moved away from politics as a final recourse to the crisis and begun to think about the practical business of personally surviving it.