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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #20,941
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:15pm Jan 26, 2012 1:15pm
Quoting the redlion
hope that helps
That does help. Thanks redl.
  • #20,942
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:27pm Jan 26, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting PeepPeep
Hi Kno,

Good stuff... Good ques...But can you explain us the importance of all these ques along with the way you generally approach it?... I believe best way to explain this or best way I would be able to understand is to give an example of the trade you took and the answers you came up with for these questions to make that trade....

That will be sort of live example for us....
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #20,943
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:38pm Jan 26, 2012 1:38pm
Whewww ... was able to actually exit with a 6 pip gain ... harmonics ... thanks PT ;-) ... when a trade goes against me when I feel I made a pretty objective decision based on technicals I remember what u said about harmonics and how things have to return usually to some previous level barring any unusal earth shaking event and that gives me the confidence to hold the trade and its returned all the time to within a range where I either take a small loss or a small gain. Usually a small gain ;-)
  • #20,944
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:20pm Jan 26, 2012 2:20pm
[quote=Cgb;5329705]I agree that fundamentals are what typically changes the direction and invalidates the current trend. However, while there are no fundamentals out (most of the trading day), technicals is what moves the price with new trend lines, pivot points and support/resistance. If this was not true, none of you would be looking at a chart and using them. You'd just be reading the papers at night and calling your broker in the morning to place your orders until the next tidbit of information came along.

Track the money flow - That is exactly what I am asking him to explain. Saying things like "Look at EUR/JPY it's at 101.86, don't you see it..." Yes I see it, it's a pretty chart that goes up and down. It does not explain how money flows.

Having an engineering background, I need to connect the dots. If this happens and that moves this way, then you will see this pair move in that direction. This would at least explain in some generalities how money flows.

Just looking for some clarify and guidance from more experienced traders.

Thanks,[/QUOTE

Here's the run down. The US dollar is considered the "safe haven" due to it being the reserve currency of the world. Anytime the Fed whom is the Central Bank of the US makes any policy adjustments this effects world currencies. Let's discuss the recent statement by the Fed to hold interest rates at their current rate of .25% til 2014. This is a big deal because it's considered loose money. This makes the dollar risk-off because of supply/demand. The more in supply the less in demand. Therefore, if you look at the EU/US pair that's a risk-off sentiment thus causing a Euro rally. Still we must keep in mind we're currently in a correction coupled with the current market events. This is why we have such a rally. There was a major interest rate announcement that came out Monday from the BOJ "Bank of Japan" where their current rate's .10%.. This caused the huge US/JY rally earlier in the week. Following the money flow is just tracking how each Central Bank decision effects one another and the market as a whole. That's the simple explination but it gets a lil more in depth when you look at the behind the scenes like bailouts, haircuts, QE, etc. Just stay with the simple economic 101 concepts and you'll be fine. Sorry for the late response, I just came back from the gym.. Good luck bro!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #20,945
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:29pm Jan 26, 2012 2:29pm
Waiting now for the 5 min to go into oversold condition as the 1 hr is pretty much there and then hopefully take a long. Thoughts anyone? I think it should happen between now and 5 pm EST, I would like it to happen in the next 5 to 10 min but probably wishful thinking on my part lol.
  • #20,946
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:38pm Jan 26, 2012 2:38pm
Quoting Cgb
I agree that fundamentals are what typically changes the direction and invalidates the current trend. However, while there are no fundamentals out (most of the trading day), technicals is what moves the price with new trend lines, pivot points and support/resistance. If this was not true, none of you would be looking at a chart and using them. You'd just be reading the papers at night and calling your broker in the morning to place your orders until the next tidbit of information came along.

Track the money flow - That is exactly...
That's what I implied when I said technicals control the movements. For example, the EU/JY rally was due to a correction followed by the BOJ announcement (fundies). Now the rally's being controlled by a resistance line (technicals) where it's currently at. In order for this to move any further we need a news break like maybe the Draghi speech tomorrow or the US GDP report, etc... Some can trade based off fundies alone, I can't but some can. Different strokes for different folks! When price moves with no present time news break you have to remember price can still feed off past news breaks... Also you have to remember COT "commitment of traders" Such as the commercial traders vs the large traders. That's what really moves the market. You're correct though bro!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #20,947
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:43pm Jan 26, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting Tyoon
When equities burst EU is gunna be a shit storm. This year risk appetite has been driving Equities, Gold, Swiss, etc leaving Dollar weak.

You can see from this chart of SP500 that when the bears attack it's going to be a big hit. Like Gold, SP500 has a few more supply levels to fill (if they get reached). When the job is complete we will be back to our good old EU down trend.

..
Yeah bro, this rally will be over soon. When it's concluded markets gonna fall fast. I'm on the side awaiting another short on EU/US, AU/US, and EU/JY
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #20,948
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:46pm Jan 26, 2012 2:46pm
Quoting nyfx718
Whewww ... was able to actually exit with a 6 pip gain ... harmonics ... thanks PT ;-) ... when a trade goes against me when I feel I made a pretty objective decision based on technicals I remember what u said about harmonics and how things have to return usually to some previous level barring any unusal earth shaking event and that gives me the confidence to hold the trade and its returned all the time to within a range where I either take a small loss or a small gain. Usually a small gain ;-)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,949
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:49pm Jan 26, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting nyfx718
Waiting now for the 5 min to go into oversold condition as the 1 hr is pretty much there and then hopefully take a long. Thoughts anyone? I think it should happen between now and 5 pm EST, I would like it to happen in the next 5 to 10 min but probably wishful thinking on my part lol.
Careful.. It seems the USD bears have gone into hibernation due to some uncertainty about Greece's future plus the very real probability that the ECB will have to take a haircut on the Greek bonds they have been holding since 2010. If they do have to take a haircut, expect Euro-QE. Either in the form of monetary expansion or another rate cut.

ADD: 1.3080 is key support. If it gives way, expect the long positions to get squeezed out.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,950
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:53pm Jan 26, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting PeepPeep
Hi Kno,

Good stuff... Good ques...But can you explain us the importance of all these ques along with the way you generally approach it?... I believe best way to explain this or best way I would be able to understand is to give an example of the trade you took and the answers you came up with for these questions to make that trade....

That will be sort of live example for us....
In lament terms he saying dont jump the gun cause price will go up... If you look at the USX she's broken a supply zone and headed down.
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #20,951
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:58pm Jan 26, 2012 2:58pm
Quoting BullsVsBears
....
Made some good points there. Essentially when trading fundamentals you are watching what the banks are doing and how they are interacting.

Quoting BullsVsBears
Therefore, if you look at the EU/US pair that's a risk-off sentiment thus causing a Euro rally.
I'm not sure you're correct there. EU is in a Dollar weakness state there is not much Euro strength in it. If there was Euro strength that would be risk on not off. This year the 'risk' money is not going into Euros as much as it used to because of all the EZ crap. The money is going into other assets like commodities and equities. So this year is a risk on environment but the Euro is kinda being left out of the party.

Please correct me if I am wrong here guys. Like most I am still learning.
  • #20,952
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:08pm Jan 26, 2012 3:08pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Careful.. It seems the USD bears have gone into hibernation due to some uncertainty about Greece's future plus the very real probability that the ECB will have to take a haircut on the Greek bonds they have been holding since 2010. If they do have to take a haircut, expect Euro-QE. Either in the form of monetary expansion or another rate cut.

ADD: 1.3080 is key support. If it gives way, expect the long positions to get squeezed out.
I have a small tickling hunch that this bullish run may be over... maybe up to 1.32 but then over. January is gone - new month next week and new numbers.

I've read some reports all day and overall I got given impression.
  • #20,953
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:08pm Jan 26, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting Tyoon
Made some good points there. Essentially when trading fundamentals you are watching what the banks are doing and how they are interacting.



I'm not sure you're correct there. EU is in a Dollar weakness state there is not much Euro strength in it. If there was Euro strength that would be risk on not off. This year the 'risk' money is not going into Euros as much as it used to because of all the EZ crap. The money is going into other assets like commodities and equities. So this year is a risk on environment but the Euro is kinda being left...
Oops, sorry I meant risk on pair... Thanks for pointing that out. Risk-on therefore price is rallying
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #20,954
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:09pm Jan 26, 2012 3:09pm
Quoting BullsVsBears
Oops, sorry I meant risk on pair... Thanks for pointing that out. Risk-on therefore price is rallying
Lol, f@cking terminology
  • #20,955
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:12pm Jan 26, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting BullsVsBears
Here's the run down. The US dollar is considered the "safe haven" due to it being the reserve currency of the world. Anytime the Fed whom is the Central Bank of the US makes any policy adjustments this effects world currencies. Let's discuss the recent statement by the Fed to hold interest rates at their current rate of .25% til 2014. This is a big deal because it's considered loose money. This makes the dollar risk-off because of supply/demand. The more in supply the less in demand. Therefore, if you look at the EU/US pair that's a risk-off sentiment...
Hmm, interesting. You've made me look at a few more chart and that little thing in my cranium is on the verge of lighting up (I think ). It's my turn to go to the gym and hopefully it will fuel the generator to light up that bulb...

Thanks!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #20,956
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:15pm Jan 26, 2012 3:15pm
Quoting Tyoon
Lol, f@cking terminology
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #20,957
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:39pm Jan 26, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting AFXFin
I have a small tickling hunch that this bullish run may be over... maybe up to 1.32 but then over. January is gone - new month next week and new numbers.

I've read some reports all day and overall I got given impression.
That's exactly what I called for earlier today. Here's the post --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post5328281

I've been waiting for this correction since mid December. Glad it's finally here and I'm pretty sure it has run out of significant gas. Maybe one last push up for effort but the reality of the EZ will soon hit. Tomorrow is Friday. Let's see if we get a sell-off or further buying.

I vote for a bid up in the morning followed by a sell-off into the close.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,958
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:40pm Jan 26, 2012 3:40pm
Sounds good.

Quoting PipTrapper
Careful.. It seems the USD bears have gone into hibernation due to some uncertainty about Greece's future plus the very real probability that the ECB will have to take a haircut on the Greek bonds they have been holding since 2010. If they do have to take a haircut, expect Euro-QE. Either in the form of monetary expansion or another rate cut.

ADD: 1.3080 is key support. If it gives way, expect the long positions to get squeezed out.
  • #20,959
  • Jan 26, 2012 4:03pm Jan 26, 2012 4:03pm
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
That's exactly what I called for earlier today. Here's the post --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post5328281

I've been waiting for this correction since mid December. Glad it's finally here and I'm pretty sure it has run out of significant gas. Maybe one last push up for effort but the reality of the EZ will soon hit. Tomorrow is Friday. Let's see if we get a sell-off or further buying.

I vote for a bid up in the morning followed by a sell-off into the close.
Yep, I noticed your post earlier. I totally agree with you. Even though I'm not that much on charts but 1,32 truly is fib 38.2 and traders tend to trust on that.

I'll get some sleep now. G'Night all.
  • #20,960
  • Jan 26, 2012 4:03pm Jan 26, 2012 4:03pm
So looks like buy opportunity at 5pm EST time did not come to fruition. Looking next to the 6:30 to 7pm EST time frame and if it doesn't set up in there, then I look onto 8:30 to 9pm EST time frame. I would be real surprised if it didn't set up by there. ... I think that is a good time for it the latest to test the 1.3080 support PT mentioned based on the current price and the percieved price action or lack thereof ...
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