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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #20,921
  • Jan 26, 2012 6:50am Jan 26, 2012 6:50am
Quoting rekon67
welcome ade! Why worried?
my heart is where my money is. I just thot i should think aloud. lol
  • #20,922
  • Jan 26, 2012 6:56am Jan 26, 2012 6:56am
Quoting adewolem
my heart is where my money is. I just thot i should think aloud. lol
Yes! You should! It is very helpful for you specially if you post your thought. Your thought may be right, may be wrong, may offend others or anything else but the important thing is then you will find best advices, even your post could help others and your mind and heart will be open to the world which is important.

Cheers nd hope to see ya around
  • #20,923
  • Jan 26, 2012 6:58am Jan 26, 2012 6:58am
I'm thinking 1.32 will break and price will continue rally... I'm watching confirmation @ 50% fib; 1.336 resistance.. Good luck!
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I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #20,924
  • Jan 26, 2012 7:00am Jan 26, 2012 7:00am
Quoting rekon67
yeah ...don't worry this bubble will burst today or tomorrow ...
I'm thinking the same think... but my chart says a higher TF correction can go all the way to 1.395...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #20,925
  • Jan 26, 2012 7:04am Jan 26, 2012 7:04am
Quoting BullsVsBears
I'm thinking 1.32 will break and price will continue rally... I'm watching confirmation @ 50% fib; 1.336 resistance.. Good luck!
On the upper channel important points to watch

1.3175
1.3236
1.3370
  • #20,926
  • Jan 26, 2012 7:08am Jan 26, 2012 7:08am
Quoting rekon67
On the upper channel important points to watch

1.3175
1.3236
1.3370
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #20,927
  • Jan 26, 2012 7:11am Jan 26, 2012 7:11am
We are appoaching levels that are significant in more pairs than EUR/USD, eg AUD/USD. This could suggest that USD Bears are maybe getting of the train. Has anyone an analysis of USDx?



Quoting AaronWard
I'm thinking the same think... but my chart says a higher TF correction can go all the way to 1.395...
  • #20,928
  • Jan 26, 2012 7:11am Jan 26, 2012 7:11am
Quoting AaronWard
I'm thinking the same think... but my chart says a higher TF correction can go all the way to 1.395...
As a technical trader we should not overlook the technicals ... so Your projection is very true at the moment and we are earning more with Buy less with Sell E/U considering the present trend.

MA's are lining there will come into the play and each hit on the MAs will attract Sellers .... but careful with the present trend line which is Up.
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  • #20,929
  • Jan 26, 2012 7:35am Jan 26, 2012 7:35am
Quoting knoholygrail
Look at EUR/JPY at 102.00 and see if it goes to 101.50 and if it does what should happen to EUR/USD...
It is obvious that it will go down. Both pairs you mention has the Euro as the primary currency. So if the Euro weakens, so will all pairs that has the Euro as the primary currency.

Unless you're trying to point out something that is so obscure and complicated, us newbies have no hope in hell of understanding what you're trying to point out or talking about.

I for one would appreciate more clarify in your post as I'm sure you know your stuff, but not explaining it very clearly. It's very wishy/washy and sounds more like guess work.

No offence ment in this post, just trying to get clarify from what you are trying to explain to us...

Cheers!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #20,930
  • Jan 26, 2012 7:43am Jan 26, 2012 7:43am
Quoting Cgb
It is obvious that it will go down. Both pairs you mention has the Euro as the primary currency. So if the Euro weakens, so will all pairs that has the Euro as the primary currency.

Unless you're trying to point out something that is so obscure and complicated, us newbies have no hope in hell of understanding what you're trying to point out or talking about.

I for one would appreciate more clarify in your post as I'm sure you know your stuff, but not explaining it very clearly. It's very wishy/washy and sounds more like guess work.

No offence...
Hi Kno,

If you are clarifying this then also consider these two posts where I tried to understand this by an example. Cheers !

Question Further Scenario Answer?

  • #20,931
  • Jan 26, 2012 8:10am Jan 26, 2012 8:10am
Quoting TheSwede
We are appoaching levels that are significant in more pairs than EUR/USD, eg AUD/USD. This could suggest that USD Bears are maybe getting of the train. Has anyone an analysis of USDx?
A candle close below 79.240 would complete a descending triangle breakout to the down side. Apex is about 3 more candles (45 minutes) away. You'll also need a confirmation candle below 79.240 so we will have a better idea on direction in 37 minutes (completion of this candle followed by next one). If this fails, we need to wait until we reach the apex of the formation.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #20,932
  • Jan 26, 2012 8:48am Jan 26, 2012 8:48am
Quoting Cgb
A candle close below 79.240 would complete a descending triangle breakout to the down side. Apex is about 3 more candles (45 minutes) away. You'll also need a confirmation candle below 79.240 so we will have a better idea on direction in 37 minutes (completion of this candle followed by next one). If this fails, we need to wait until we reach the apex of the formation.
It did close below 79.240 but we did not get the confirmation candle. Now above the 15 downtrend line and seeing if we get a confirmation candle. Still no clear direction here.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #20,933
  • Jan 26, 2012 9:46am Jan 26, 2012 9:46am
Quoting Cgb
It did close below 79.240 but we did not get the confirmation candle. Now above the 15 downtrend line and seeing if we get a confirmation candle. Still no clear direction here.
Dont mean to be nosy but basically Kno was saying "get more trading tools in your tool box!" Just trading candles will shorten your trading life. There are many other factors besides candles. Track the money flow. Fundamentals move price while technicals control it. Candlesticks display the past info on charts so we can make educated assumptions on future actions... Hope that helps!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #20,934
  • Jan 26, 2012 10:02am Jan 26, 2012 10:02am
Quoting TheSwede
We are appoaching levels that are significant in more pairs than EUR/USD, eg AUD/USD. This could suggest that USD Bears are maybe getting of the train. Has anyone an analysis of USDx?
There's not much to stop the dollar bears from pushing price to as low as 78 on USX. The dollar is currently at a demand zone but I think she's gonna break. Euro's rally will continue at least to mid next week maybe the following week based on news releases. Im on the side til further confirmation
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #20,935
  • Jan 26, 2012 10:13am Jan 26, 2012 10:13am
Quoting BullsVsBears
Dont mean to be nosy but basically Kno was saying "get more trading tools in your tool box!" Just trading candles will shorten your trading life. There are many other factors besides candles. Track the money flow. Fundamentals move price while technicals control it. Candlesticks display the past info on charts so we can make educated assumptions on future actions... Hope that helps!
I agree that fundamentals are what typically changes the direction and invalidates the current trend. However, while there are no fundamentals out (most of the trading day), technicals is what moves the price with new trend lines, pivot points and support/resistance. If this was not true, none of you would be looking at a chart and using them. You'd just be reading the papers at night and calling your broker in the morning to place your orders until the next tidbit of information came along.

Track the money flow - That is exactly what I am asking him to explain. Saying things like "Look at EUR/JPY it's at 101.86, don't you see it..." Yes I see it, it's a pretty chart that goes up and down. It does not explain how money flows.

Having an engineering background, I need to connect the dots. If this happens and that moves this way, then you will see this pair move in that direction. This would at least explain in some generalities how money flows.

Just looking for some clarify and guidance from more experienced traders.

Thanks,
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #20,936
  • Jan 26, 2012 10:36am Jan 26, 2012 10:36am
Quoting BullsVsBears
There's not much to stop the dollar bears from pushing price to as low as 78 on USX. The dollar is currently at a demand zone but I think she's gonna break. Euro's rally will continue at least to mid next week maybe the following week based on news releases. Im on the side til further confirmation
When equities burst EU is gunna be a shit storm. This year risk appetite has been driving Equities, Gold, Swiss, etc leaving Dollar weak.

You can see from this chart of SP500 that when the bears attack it's going to be a big hit. Like Gold, SP500 has a few more supply levels to fill (if they get reached). When the job is complete we will be back to our good old EU down trend.

..
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  • #20,937
  • Jan 26, 2012 10:42am Jan 26, 2012 10:42am
at the back and spine of our financial system or the pillar if you will is the USD

as it is the reserve currency of the world.

most EVERY pair traded in forex involves the USD, the majors eur/usd, gbp/usd, aud/usd and usd/jpy, usd/chf, usd/cad

all other crosses are synthetics

gbp/usd vs aud/usd

or aud/usd vs usd/jpy = aud/jpy

the only other pair that does not require synthetic conversion to usd is eur/jpy


usd/ commodities is a good relationship to keep in mind

xau/usd, xag/usd, usd/coffee bean, etc.....

tracking the value of commodities give you an idea of money flow

oil, silver, gold, especially dictate the strength of the usd and risk on risk off environment

which is also noted in ASIAN,EUROPEAN,NYSE equities and the yield of the short term and long term bonds

eur/usd
eur/jpy

they tell the strength of the euro as well as risk on usually higher yielding currencies will go up nzd, aud, and eur, even if eur doesn't climb as much because all other currencies are tied to USD, USD declines and thus making eur more valuable

hope that helps
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,938
  • Jan 26, 2012 10:56am Jan 26, 2012 10:56am
an example of fundamental anticipation would be

Iran closing the straits of Hormuz would bring oil up

CAD will climb as canada exports oil, equities would probably go risk off, bringing pressure into USD currency, and driving yields down short term

long term the USD would suffer as the economy would stall, and Euro would be initially hard hit, as it would hit Italy and greece hard.


Saudi Arabia would increase production and bring oil down from 110+ down but would keep the floor at 100 as they already mentioned.



If the ECB takes losses on greek bonds that is technically considered QE, The ECB doesnt give a rats ass about profits, but it looks good, i mean ECB can always print money out of thin air and they have been doing this..........AS LOANS.

taking losses on the loans means the money out is not equal the money in so politically that is increasing the money supply.

if negotiations break down and PSI does not accept the haircuts as ECB is fighting them, then a credit event is triggered with CDS being triggered the euro would go down tremendously.

looking at the chart for confirmation beats looking at candles up candles down with no IDEA WHY people are taking those transactions
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,939
  • Jan 26, 2012 11:02am Jan 26, 2012 11:02am
Quoting the redlion
at the back and spine of our financial system or the pillar if you will is the USD

as it is the reserve currency of the world.

most EVERY pair traded in forex involves the USD, the majors eur/usd, gbp/usd, aud/usd and usd/jpy, usd/chf, usd/cad

all other crosses are synthetics

gbp/usd vs aud/usd

or aud/usd vs usd/jpy = aud/jpy

the only other pair that does not require synthetic conversion to usd is eur/jpy


usd/ commodities is a good relationship to keep in mind

xau/usd, xag/usd, usd/coffee bean, etc.....

tracking the value of...
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #20,940
  • Jan 26, 2012 11:13am Jan 26, 2012 11:13am
Quoting knoholygrail
Where was your entry point ? Where is your exit point ? Why did you go short ? What is your Trade Plan ? What is your Maximum Risk ?

Do You Follow Money Flow ? Are You Aware of the effect that the results of New Home Sales MIGHT have at 10:00 AM EST. Are we in a Risk On or Risk Off mode ? If you cannot answer these questions you might be better off trading demo funds until you understand what moves currencies. The Charts do NOT MOVE CURRENCIES...

I hope you understand that this is a positive helpful post. EUR/USD now at 1.3154

BE PATIENT !!!...

Hi Kno,

Good stuff... Good ques...But can you explain us the importance of all these ques along with the way you generally approach it?... I believe best way to explain this or best way I would be able to understand is to give an example of the trade you took and the answers you came up with for these questions to make that trade....

That will be sort of live example for us....
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