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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #20,881
  • Jan 25, 2012 11:11pm Jan 25, 2012 11:11pm
Quoting the redlion
the best wiggle room to give is away from volatility, there are many ways to achieve this, one of them is standard deviations, S/R, S/D, or pertinent price levels.

historical statistical homoskedastic volatility also works,

try to learn the normal ranges of the pairs in question (homskedastic) and current distribution in normal price variations (heteroskedastic)

or anticipate price formations and see if the level of your stop would render it moot.

Thanks Redlion, I've been using double BB Bands to establish trend on occasion. I think those can help me avoid getting stopped out by noise if I tweak the SD. My main problem when going live was over-leveraging (duh) so I was hesitant to give my trades proper breathing room.

Is your signature/Footer an anagram?
  • #20,882
  • Jan 25, 2012 11:14pm Jan 25, 2012 11:14pm
Quoting GrizzNasty
Increasing Chinese wages while lowering American wages could make China less competitive, in turn, bringing more jobs back to the US?

Thanks PK. This really is a great resource, though at times, having only taken ECON 110 8 years ago, I feel relatively like I'm sitting in on a Graduate level seminar full of Financial Goliaths.
US and China are mutually precarious. The US is the biggest market for Chinese goods and in turn China has become the biggest producer of US goods, this relationship was great till the financial crash now the US wants to become a producer again and boost exports, become competitive and shift away from a consumer based economy....but as Aaron has said as long as Emerging market are a source of cheap labor and US regulations strangle business the production industries in the US will be at a disadvantage.

While china does not have a consumer based economy it depends on the US market to sell their goods, so they need to shift to a more consumer based which will drive standard of living up and wages up...losing their edge in the production side.....however it is important to find a balance for these two because extremes are dangerous.

depending on exports means depending on the wealth of the importers.
depending on imports means depending on the production of exporters
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,883
  • Jan 25, 2012 11:23pm Jan 25, 2012 11:23pm
Quoting GrizzNasty
Thanks Redlion, I've been using double BB Bands to establish trend on occasion. I think those can help me avoid getting stopped out by noise if I tweak the SD. My main problem when going live was over-leveraging (duh) so I was hesitant to give my trades proper breathing room.

Is your signature/Footer an anagram?
this is a model of money management that i came up with and it has improved my risk parameters tremendously you are welcomed to use it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: money management plan.jpg Size: 37 KB



BB on their own are good you don't need double BB, standard deviations * 2 encompasses 95% of price.

make sure you use real measurements for you BB not just arbitrary settings

keep in mind that SMA measures the number of periods in your time frames
so 24 SMA on an Hourly (24,2 BB) is standard deviations *2 of 24h period
and 12 sma on a 5 minute is hourly standard deviations etc....

don't use BB blindly try to anticipate formations by price levels ie

1.3090 and below looks like an impulse south while above 1.3020 looks like continuation north.
hopefully i am being clear
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,884
  • Jan 25, 2012 11:51pm Jan 25, 2012 11:51pm
1.3090 and below looks like an impulse south while above 1.3020 looks like continuation north.
hopefully i am being clear[/quote]


Thanks for the diagram. I will try and put it to use, or at least model off of it. Your bb band math makes complete sense, i think i was adjusting them correctly. I feel like I am SLOWLY starting to get better at anticipating formations/price level. It seems to be all about screen time.
  • #20,885
  • Jan 26, 2012 12:02am Jan 26, 2012 12:02am
I think we will see something next 2 hour from now. breakout or wait for the US data today. :O
Rome was not built in a day, but I will do in a day if it was me.
  • #20,886
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:08am Jan 26, 2012 1:08am
Quoting the redlion
i have never taken econ aside from basic high school econ

i but i like to research.
I've never even had that. Everything I've learned about economics came from the real world school of hard knocks as a small business owner and trader.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #20,887
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:08am Jan 26, 2012 1:08am
Quoting knoholygrail
There were two issues here today. First and most IMPORTANT Bernake has no more clothes on so the MARKET knew more Money Printing which means loss of value. (MONETARY INFLATION)

Gold Shot up and at the same time the Markets said RISK ON so they went out of the US Bonds into other Asset Classes including EUR/USD.

SO WHY DID THE US BOND YIELDS GO DOWN !!!

The 1% F U C K E D the 99% again...

How ?

The Bond Dealers starting buying the US Bonds with their HIDDEN PROFITS so that they could RESELL IT TO THE FED AT A PROFIT !!!

Does This help...
Yes, that definitely helps, but I am still a little confused.

When you say monetary inflation, is that the same as quantitative easing? I looked it up and it says that the FED injects more money into the economy, which in turn causes higher prices for goods and services (inflation). Right? I understand that the increase in supply causes loss of value, but how does that correlate to money flow? Is that why you then say people bought gold? Also, why would that cause the markets to go risk-on? And lastly, could you please explain what it means for the bond dealers to buy US Bonds with hidden profits so they could resell to the FED at a profit. I really don't understand that.

Thanks for having patience with me. I'm really trying to grasp this, and I know I will with your help. Thanks!!
  • #20,888
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:11am Jan 26, 2012 1:11am
Quoting the redlion
..
1.3090 and below looks like an impulse south while above 1.3020 looks like continuation north.
hopefully i am being clear
You mean 1.3120 ? typo? cheers!
  • #20,889
  • Jan 26, 2012 1:12am Jan 26, 2012 1:12am
Quoting rekon67
You mean 1.3120 ? typo? cheers!
yeah that is what i meant, typo
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,890
  • Edited 1:40am Jan 26, 2012 1:16am | Edited 1:40am
Quoting PipKiller
I've never even had that. Everything I've learned about economics came from the real world school of hard knocks as a small business owner and trader.

I took econ in HS and a remedial class in college

And I didnt learn shit... I just read and read and read... a good buddy of mine who is an awesome trader actually(pure PA guy)... thinks Im an idiot for all the reading and excess research I do... and i suppose some could be successful traders without the info.... but I like it...

gives my analytical mind a reason to take and hold positions... its hard for me to just trust a position cuz a bunch of candles told me to get in...

Looking at this move today literally nothing changed actually except for the fed saying they are "possibly" going to hold rates low till 2014.... this from a guy who couldnt see the housing bubble comin 6 months ago... With him setting such a tight inflation target at 2% these low rates can easily get out of hand and then what? They will need to tighten policy to prevent excessive inflation... frankly, no hint of QE was mentioned, no MBS purchases, nothing... hell he even used the same exact verbage!! The situation globally is worsening... even moreso than in the US, and especially overseas and in Japan.... The USD will own 2012.... It simply has too... I hear EVERYONE screaming about how they are buying PM's... literally EVERYONE

We all know exactly what that means.... dont buy the damn things yet! There is a reason that Gold, with all the insane gold bulls running around, isnt at 2500$ an ounce and that is because there isnt a grocery store youcan walk into, slap down some gold nuggets, and walk out with a basket of groceries...

Like it or not, we are living in a fiat world for the foreseeable future... 50 years down the road will we be living in some post apocalyptic wasteland bartering gold nuggets and sheep in trade for water? maybe? but till then my bets are going with the USD....

Im simply waiting for a nice overshoot on risk assets to load up on more shorts... GU @ 570x, EU @ 321x, UCHF @ .916X... and a few key others.

Besides guys.. Stolper from GS said go Long EU, short UCAD... lol that in itself trumps pretty much all other analysis
  • #20,891
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:38am Jan 26, 2012 2:38am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting Wulfgar
I took econ in HS and a remedial class in college

And I didnt learn shit... I just read and read and read... a good buddy of mine who is an awesome trader actually(pure PA guy)... thinks Im an idiot for all the reading and excess research I do... and i suppose some could be successful traders without the info.... but I like it...

gives my analytical mind a reason to take and hold positions... its hard for me to just trust a position cuz a bunch of candles told me to get in...

Looking at this move today literally nothing changed actually...

I would wait for another dive in EURUSD. Intra day traders should look at 1.3025 before long. It is quite over bought now.
  • #20,892
  • Jan 26, 2012 2:39am Jan 26, 2012 2:39am
Quoting AFXFin
I would wait for another dive in EURUSD. Intra day traders should look at 1.3025 before long. It is quite over bought now.
  • #20,893
  • Jan 26, 2012 3:54am Jan 26, 2012 3:54am
buy stop hit @ 1.3135 .. next R 1.3175 ..breaking it 1.32
  • #20,894
  • Jan 26, 2012 4:03am Jan 26, 2012 4:03am
PT, here is the correction you've been waiting for.

What levels are you looking to get in at?

Some tech. I'm expecting to see some sort of a bounce around approaching supply.

..
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  • #20,895
  • Jan 26, 2012 4:12am Jan 26, 2012 4:12am
Quoting Tyoon
PT, here is the correction you've been waiting for.

What levels are you looking to get in at?

Some tech. I'm expecting to see some sort of a bounce around approaching supply.

..
Quoting rekon67
buy stop hit @ 1.3135 .. next R 1.3175 ..breaking it 1.32
Come on baby. Hit my yellow spot
Confluence of...
1. 38.2% fibo level
2. Re-test of broken rising trend line from underneath
3. 100 ema on close price

Or keep going and hit my orange spot
Confluence of...
1. 50% fibo level
2. 89 smma on typical price
3. 200 ema on close price
4. Daily supply zone

Either way, I'll be a happy bear.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,896
  • Jan 26, 2012 5:18am Jan 26, 2012 5:18am
Quoting scottymoll
Yes, that definitely helps, but I am still a little confused.

When you say monetary inflation, is that the same as quantitative easing? I looked it up and it says that the FED injects more money into the economy, which in turn causes higher prices for goods and services (inflation). Right? I understand that the increase in supply causes loss of value, but how does that correlate to money flow? Is that why you then say people bought gold? Also, why would that cause the markets to go risk-on? And lastly, could you please explain what it means for...
Look at each point in it's own space. Monetary Inflation is mainly caused by the printing of money which debases the currency and causes Monetary Inflation as the currency loses value and the cost of hard Assets like food and even Gold go up in value to compensate for the loss of real value. I think that should explain it. Perhaps someone here can give a better explanation.

Price Inflation is when Prices go up in cost terms although there is certainly some affect from the first point. That is what caused food prices to rise which had some cause and affect with the Arab Spring. Price Inflation is caused by too much demand so prices rise because of shortage of supply. That's the way I understand it.

Quantitive Easing or QE is basically the Printing of Money (US Dollar) out of Thin Air so it has some relationship to Monetary Inflation however now put it off your radar in the rest of my answers since you tied certain answers together and there are seperate subjects here.

Let's look at Money Flow on it's own.

When the FED stated they would keep Interest Rates Low that means to do that they have to Print Money and Buy Bonds out of Thin Air to Add to the Money Supply. That helps to keep Interest Rates down and force investors to take more risks to get returns.

Now to Gold and Risk On which are separate. Gold Shot Up since it was clear to the Markets that there had to be more money printing for years. They made it a certainty so that was a signal. That then put Risk back on as where else could you make returns. It was a Feel Good moment so everyone started buying other Asset Classes.

Then WHY did the US Dollar Index Go Down and US Bonds GO UP ?

This is something that most people do not know or even understand since it is SO EVIL and CRIMINAL...

The 1% against the 99%...

The FED has just told the accredited Bond Dealers to GO BUY THE US BONDS now and so they used their money to buy INVENTORY knowing in advance that their BUDDIES, THE FED would buy back their INVENTORY at a nice profit. Good Deal Huh ? That caused Yields to go down. Eventually this BLOWS up and there is a US Bond Collapse and the Bubble Bursts and then the 2 Year US Bonds will trade at 5% just like in Italy and then we have GAME OVER... This could be another two years or less. They will try to keep the game going until after the US Elections.
  • #20,897
  • Jan 26, 2012 5:29am Jan 26, 2012 5:29am
And what does this mean now for the euro USD, and also gold?
steve


Quoting knoholygrail
Look at each point in it's own space. Monetary Inflation is mainly caused by the printing of money which debases the currency and causes Monetary Inflation as the currency loses value and the cost of hard Assets like food and even Gold go up in value to compensate for the loss of real value. I think that should explain it. Perhaps someone here can give a better explanation.

Price Inflation is when Prices go up in cost terms although there is certainly some affect from the first point. That is what caused food prices to rise which had some cause...
  • #20,898
  • Jan 26, 2012 5:45am Jan 26, 2012 5:45am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting stevebalmmer
And what does this mean now for the euro USD, and also gold?
steve
If USD goes down, Euro/USD will raise. Theoretically, but since the tsunami of collapse would float europe as well we probably wont see it, since in same run euro price will go down...

Gold is other issue - price would go up in both euro and usd. In that kind of collapse raw materials will be safe haven for investors.
  • #20,899
  • Jan 26, 2012 5:45am Jan 26, 2012 5:45am
Quoting Wulfgar
I took econ in HS and a remedial class in college

And I didnt learn shit... I just read and read and read... a good buddy of mine who is an awesome trader actually(pure PA guy)... thinks Im an idiot for all the reading and excess research I do... and i suppose some could be successful traders without the info.... but I like it...

gives my analytical mind a reason to take and hold positions... its hard for me to just trust a position cuz a bunch of candles told me to get in...

Looking at this move today literally nothing changed actually...
I know you are interested in learning so I will comment on some of your points with follow up suggestions on education. Here is a copy and paste of part of your post.

I took econ in HS and a remedial class in college

And I didnt learn shit... I just read and read and read... a good buddy of mine who is an awesome trader actually(pure PA guy)... thinks Im an idiot for all the reading and excess research I do... and i suppose some could be successful traders without the info.... but I like it...

Kno's Comment: It is good to read and research. Then you need to really understand it by asking questions and discussing it until it is so very clear.

gives my analytical mind a reason to take and hold positions... its hard for me to just trust a position cuz a bunch of candles told me to get in...

Looking at this move today literally nothing changed actually except for the fed saying they are "possibly" going to hold rates low till 2014.... this from a guy who couldnt see the housing bubble comin 6 months ago...

Kno's Comments: In some way you are right however it HAD an immediate Cause and Affect !!! This means you need to go past just understanding to how NEW ACTIONS will cause events to happen. By the FED saying they will HOLD rates low until 2014 they CONFIRMED they did not expect any solutions or improvements in their view. They STILL have INCREDIBLE POWER and INFLUENCE.


With him setting such a tight inflation target at 2% these low rates can easily get out of hand and then what? They will need to tighten policy to prevent excessive inflation... frankly, no hint of QE was mentioned, no MBS purchases, nothing...


Kno's Comments: THEY DID ANNOUNCE MORE MONEY PRINTING and that is WHY Gold shot up $40 US and now Trades at $1716 US.

hell he even used the same exact verbage!! The situation globally is worsening... even moreso than in the US, and especially overseas and in Japan.... The USD will own 2012.... It simply has too... I hear EVERYONE screaming about how they are buying PM's... literally EVERYONE



We all know exactly what that means.... dont buy the damn things yet! There is a reason that Gold, with all the insane gold bulls running around, isnt at 2500$ an ounce and that is because there isnt a grocery store youcan walk into, slap down some gold nuggets, and walk out with a basket of groceries...

Kno's Comments: With GREAT RESPECT you are very very misinformed. I think perhaps you have not been reading what I post here. That is just my opinion based on your point of view. Sign up to GATA and it is FREE... When Gold Goes to $2500 US you can take the Gold you bought at $1716 US Dollars and sell it anywhere in the World perhaps getting Canadian Dollars and then taking your whole Family out to the BEST PLACE in town with your profits.

Like it or not, we are living in a fiat world for the foreseeable future... 50 years down the road will we be living in some post apocalyptic wasteland bartering gold nuggets and sheep in trade for water? maybe? but till then my bets are going with the USD....

Kno's Comments: You will lose your bet and History Proves that. I strongly suggest with respect that having an open mind allows you to learn and find out the truth. This is not my truth. This is reality and more intelligent people than myself have taught me well. I hope this post proves to be helpful and EGO is not part of my views or any replies. Have a Great Trading Day !!!
  • #20,900
  • Jan 26, 2012 5:57am Jan 26, 2012 5:57am
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...without-a-plan

PLEASE READ IT ALL or you can just skip past this post. It is called Free Will...

Snippet:

Answer to previous question explained better than I ever could.

And yes, we will hear the term "class warfare" over and over again for the rest of 2012.

Obama actually believes that "blaming the 1%" can get him sent back to the White House again.

But that isn't going to solve any of our problems.
Instead, we should be focusing on the root causes of our economic problems.

I would love to see a president get up during a State of the Union address and declare that we need to shut down the Federal Reserve.

Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power.

Since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, the U.S. national debt has gotten more than 5000 times larger.

Thanks to the debt-based Federal Reserve system, we are going into debt at a pace that is unlike anything the world has ever seen.

Right now, the federal government is stealing 150 million dollars an hour from our children and our grandchildren.

But Barack Obama loves the Federal Reserve.

In fact, he actually nominated Ben Bernanke for a second term as Federal Reserve Chairman even though Bernanke has a track record of incompetence that is legendary.

So no, nobody should be applauding Barack Obama for his absolutely abysmal speech the other night.

He is a man without a plan and he has been an absolute disaster for America.
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