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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,721
  • Edited 4:08pm Jan 24, 2012 3:55pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting aragami
Congratz, looks like you guessed the bottom!

I took a bit less then 50pips on UJ and am very happy that UJ finally showed some action. Want to see trade deficit before doing anything
Thanks, I bought in at 76.95 , think its as close as I could get to bottom, I am now down to 70 odd pips profit, but I will hedge it in a few mins after NY session.
I think the key to look for to any further upward movement ,lies in the EZ news , the E/J broke several resistance barriers and took out a few SL's which helped it climb 120+pips today, further upward movement in the EU pairs should help this pair go further up.

Am also placing a 50 pip SL on my short hedge just in the unlikely event that MR. Azumi decides to grow some and surprise us. Regardless of how likely/unlikely that is to happen , I want to leave that option open.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,722
  • Jan 24, 2012 6:03pm Jan 24, 2012 6:03pm
After the TRADE BALANCE figures there is nothing to do but sit and wait for yentervention
  • #29,723
  • Jan 24, 2012 6:24pm Jan 24, 2012 6:24pm
Quoting hornsant
After the TRADE BALANCE figures there is nothing to do but sit and wait for yentervention
You'll be waiting a long time. What possible reason could there be to intervene when both UJ and EJ are heading in the right direction?????
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,724
  • Jan 24, 2012 6:43pm Jan 24, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting hornsant
After the TRADE BALANCE figures there is nothing to do but sit and wait for yentervention
That option looks less likely now, but that trade deficit does not look too good for Japan or the future of a strong Yen, I am sure this pair will start showing signs of life , especially if there is not so much drama coming from Europe.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,725
  • Jan 24, 2012 7:54pm Jan 24, 2012 7:54pm
Yen looks weaker...soon have potential to test 80y,...hope the speculators did not spoil that,.,haha
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY6.JPG Size: 67 KB
Bismillah
  • #29,726
  • Jan 25, 2012 7:45am Jan 25, 2012 7:45am
Quoting realjumper
You'll be waiting a long time. What possible reason could there be to intervene when both UJ and EJ are heading in the right direction?????
Not sure if it can get to 79 on it's own... last intervention BoJ made it get to 79,5. If that might be their target then why not to step in now and get it there. Also to fight the trade deficit they might need a higher number since the deficit was made with 2011 prices and they were higher then those right now.
Those long candles on 4h chart are asking for retrace

my2cents
  • #29,727
  • Jan 25, 2012 7:52am Jan 25, 2012 7:52am
Quoting aragami
Not sure if it can get to 79 on it's own... last intervention BoJ made it get to 79,5. If that might be their target then why not to step in now and get it there. Also to fight the trade deficit they might need a higher number since the deficit was made with 2011 prices and they were higher then those right now.
Those long candles on 4h chart are asking for retrace

my2cents
need to wait fed first...
Bismillah
  • #29,728
  • Jan 25, 2012 8:23am Jan 25, 2012 8:23am
Quoting realjumper
You'll be waiting a long time. What possible reason could there be to intervene when both UJ and EJ are heading in the right direction?????
Sideways is no direction
  • #29,729
  • Jan 25, 2012 8:26am Jan 25, 2012 8:26am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily uj.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #29,730
  • Jan 25, 2012 8:37am Jan 25, 2012 8:37am
Quoting aqeelaputra
Attachment
Can you tell the name of the "thing" in top right corner please ?
  • #29,731
  • Jan 25, 2012 10:56am Jan 25, 2012 10:56am
Quoting aragami
Not sure if it can get to 79 on it's own... last intervention BoJ made it get to 79,5. If that might be their target then why not to step in now and get it there. Also to fight the trade deficit they might need a higher number since the deficit was made with 2011 prices and they were higher then those right now.
Those long candles on 4h chart are asking for retrace

my2cents
The question as to why they dont step in when all logic suggests its the most appropriate time, has also puzzled me , but quite frankly I dont give the BoJ too much credibility that they are actually on the ball here, waiting for the currency to drop to new lows and throwing a bucket load of money at it for a very short lived spike, seems to be the only paragraph that they have in their book of wisdom.

I also see a retrace taking place , the pair has moved way to fast in the last 2 days , add to that the fact that Europe does not seem to want to settle its issues anytime soon , and I reckon investors will start hoggin on to the Yen again, there is also the Fed possibly spoiling things , by mentioning QE3 etc.
I am out for the moment at least until FOMC takes place.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,732
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:28pm Jan 25, 2012 12:28pm
Dodged a bullet there
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,733
  • Jan 25, 2012 12:59pm Jan 25, 2012 12:59pm
Quoting aqeelaputra
Attachment
Roller coaster

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj h4.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #29,734
  • Edited 1:53pm Jan 25, 2012 1:37pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting Fidza
Dodged a bullet there
Triggered SL on EU so thats -20... Will keep eye how UJ will act during asian session, don't hope for anything much but need ideas on how it might devalop how it will recover or not from bernanke's hit
  • #29,735
  • Jan 25, 2012 1:56pm Jan 25, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting aragami
Triggered SL on EU so thats -20... Will keep eye how UJ will act during asian session, don't hope for anything much but need ideas on how it might devalop how it will recover or not from bernanke's hit
uj have posibilities to test 80 soon...
Bismillah
  • #29,736
  • Jan 25, 2012 2:29pm Jan 25, 2012 2:29pm
Quoting krunfx
uj have posibilities to test 80 soon...
agreed, considering a long around 77.56 if US weakness allows it....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #29,737
  • Jan 25, 2012 3:48pm Jan 25, 2012 3:48pm
Quoting hornsant
Sideways is no direction
Intervention danger area is below 76........PA has been testing 78 since last Novenmber......eventually it will break through without the need for BOJ to spend $20 billion USD and incur the wrath of Uncle Sam
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,738
  • Jan 25, 2012 3:57pm Jan 25, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting aragami
Not sure if it can get to 79 on it's own... last intervention BoJ made it get to 79,5. If that might be their target then why not to step in now and get it there. Also to fight the trade deficit they might need a higher number since the deficit was made with 2011 prices and they were higher then those right now.
Those long candles on 4h chart are asking for retrace

my2cents
That is the simple logic of of the problem.....and BOJ has had many such opportunities to push the Yen down but they haven't taken those chances. One of the main reasons is that with the exception of the joint intervention just after the earthquake/tsunami, intervention pisses Uncle Sam off, and Japan doesn't like to do that. So, BOJ can't, and have said as much, target a specific 'line in the sand'......what they have said, and done, is to quash extreme volatility to 'calm the waters'.

The only time that intervention has successfully turned the trend was after the Kobe earthquake in 1995, when the economic world was a much different place.

I don't disagree with what you're saying, but BOJ can't simply throw billions of dollars at the market without pissing off some important players.....and they won't do that.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,739
  • Jan 25, 2012 6:38pm Jan 25, 2012 6:38pm
USDJPY sitting in no mans land, above the Ichimoku cloud but under the 200SMA
  • #29,740
  • Jan 25, 2012 6:43pm Jan 25, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting USD-Bear
agreed, considering a long around 77.56 if US weakness allows it....
i think speculators starting to sell their yen from carry trade unwind at 125...huhu...

just my opinion...
Bismillah
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