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  • #901
  • Jan 20, 2012 9:30am Jan 20, 2012 9:30am
Quoting lovejoy80
New blog post uploaded to my website
A follow up Blog post has been posted on the website.
  • #902
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:27pm Jan 20, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting lovejoy80
We've had a a big short squeeze in the Euro and a much weaker USD this week - how far can it continue I don't know, but this chart is very interesting.
The result...an easy 1R.

Still an area worth watching IMO as I'm not sure price is done with it yet.
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  • #903
  • Jan 22, 2012 1:34pm Jan 22, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting AvanishDemo
Chart for next week..
1.5575.

easy!
Price pretty much closed at this level so it would be a case of waiting to see where it is tomorrow morning and whether I wanted to take this as a positional trade (as the reactionary type touch trade has already happened) if price was still in the vicinity.

I don't generally enter trades Sunday, unless I want to act on some obvious weekend news (this is one of the reasons I use Oanda - open 24/7) - tonight is an example of this (as per my tweets).
  • #904
  • Jan 23, 2012 2:45am Jan 23, 2012 2:45am
A common question I have been asked recently is about the daily wedge on UCAD and how I'm going to play it.

Folks - look at your chart, the wedge has been broken and has been played out. It's a common perception that just because the wedge is sizeable that we should expect a big move following the breakout - this would be the case if price was tightly wound-up within the wedge, but this definitely wasn't the case for this wedge. Plus look at this pair, do you really expect an explosive move on a pair that 99% of the time is very slow moving and choppy?

Don't try and force your TL's to show what you want them to show you - look at my chart below, it's very clear that we had 4 touches of the lower TL then we had the breakout and price went to the next daily support via a daily breakout FTB setup - that's one common way to efficiently trade breakouts - if you can't pre-empt the breakout with good probability then wait for the re-test setups.
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  • #905
  • Jan 23, 2012 3:53am Jan 23, 2012 3:53am
Current technical setups on the radar:

1. FTB Long on GU @ 1.55 area.
2. FTB long on AU @ 1.0435 area.
3. FTB long on EJ @ 98.85 area.
4. Long UCHF - positional TT with the trend as per last weeks charts - 0.9300 - 0.9330 area.
5. Gold - technical confluence - short @ 1677 area - had this setup on the radar for a while now (Also notice the FTB short @ 1703 area on 4H - not shown).
6. FTB long on GJ @ 119 area.
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  • #906
  • Jan 23, 2012 5:22am Jan 23, 2012 5:22am
Quoting lovejoy80
5. Gold - technical confluence - short @ 1677 area - had this setup on the radar for a while now (Also notice the FTB short @ 1703 area on 4H - not shown).
Hi LJ,

It would be nice to have this higher TF trendline confluence @ 1703. Its such a well defined and tight level without any tests on lower tf. As for the 1677 area i am going to wait for decent close below 1667 before shorting it. Silver is aproaching its weekly ppz aswell and that might add some confluence.

On the other note EU price behave similar to 2011 october short squeeze scenario. I see people everywhere shorting the hell out of it lol

All the best!
  • #907
  • Jan 23, 2012 5:49am Jan 23, 2012 5:49am
Quoting Greenhaze
Hi LJ,

It would be nice to have this higher TF trendline confluence @ 1703. Its such a well defined and tight level without any tests on lower tf. As for the 1677 area i am going to wait for decent close below 1667 before shorting it. Silver is aproaching its weekly ppz aswell and that might add some confluence.

On the other note EU price behave similar to 2011 october short squeeze scenario. I see people everywhere shorting the hell out of it lol

All the best!
Indeed, 1703 looks like a very good FTB to me. Yes Silver might provide some confluence too, also Gold is essentially a risk asset these days so confluence from risk sentiment pairs would be helpful too.

Yep, that's what happens when you get extreme sentiment towards a current and not more news to drive it lower, the retracement comes and the big scramble to cover the shorts occurs causing the short squeeze.
  • #908
  • Jan 23, 2012 6:01am Jan 23, 2012 6:01am
Missed this one, the %R to FLR made it borderline but a nice level for an FTB.
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  • #909
  • Jan 23, 2012 6:30am Jan 23, 2012 6:30am
Decent close below 5.9000 would make it a very simple setup and could bring smile on my face tomorrow
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  • #910
  • Jan 23, 2012 7:14am Jan 23, 2012 7:14am
Quoting Greenhaze
Decent close below 5.9000 would make it a very simple setup and could bring smile on my face tomorrow
Looks very good ...price moving well at the moment. Until now I've never opened a chart off this pair!
  • #911
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:19am Jan 23, 2012 8:19am
Quote
Current technical setups on the radar:

5. Gold - technical confluence - short @ 1677 area - had this setup on the radar for a while now (Also notice the FTB short @ 1703 area on 4H - not shown).

Gold has been moving well, not taking a loss from here on. Will see what it can do @ 1662 area - this is my FLS to consider taking some profit.
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  • #912
  • Jan 23, 2012 8:55am Jan 23, 2012 8:55am
Quoting lovejoy80
Gold has been moving well, not taking a loss from here on. Will see what it can do @ 1662 area - this is my FLS to consider taking some profit.
Nice trade management there. Risk apetite is very strong atm.
It looks like some of the sell stops on UCAD just triggered. After such rally i wonder if we will see price taking a breath now. Structurally that would be interesting place to reload shorts i think .....if price will behave.
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  • #913
  • Jan 23, 2012 9:14am Jan 23, 2012 9:14am
Quoting lovejoy80
Missed this one, the %R to FLR made it borderline but a nice level for an FTB.
This highlights the importance of having a trade management plan that allows you to capture runners when price moves in the right way - if you always take profit at FLR's / FLS's then you need to re-look at your plan because it is a wholly inefficient way to manage trades.
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  • #914
  • Jan 23, 2012 9:17am Jan 23, 2012 9:17am
Quoting Greenhaze
Nice trade management there. Risk apetite is very strong atm.
It looks like some of the sell stops on UCAD just triggered. After such rally i wonder if we will see price taking a breath now. Structurally that would be interesting place to reload shorts i think .....if price will behave.
Yes it is, looks like price stalled at the 4HR support and gonna get stopped out at BE, but no point giving it anymore room given the strength of risk appetite at the moment.

Yes, certainly had some sell stops hit judging by how price moved below that support area.
  • #915
  • Jan 23, 2012 2:03pm Jan 23, 2012 2:03pm
Took a BE on Gold - I did consider treating this more off a positional trend trade (as the daily TF does have some characteristics to support this - the TL and a series of lower highs and lower lows), but I prefer to stick to my FX pairs for this approach so opted for the reaction style TT trade management instead.
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  • #916
  • Jan 23, 2012 2:07pm Jan 23, 2012 2:07pm
Last post of the day and here is one for people to ponder over ... take a look at the strong correlation in those 5 15min bars highlighted between ENZD and NU. Can anyone explain how this could have been predicted with good probability? (the answer is purely technical i.e. from looking at charts and no fundies)...
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  • #917
  • Jan 24, 2012 2:02am Jan 24, 2012 2:02am
Quoting Greenhaze
Decent close below 5.9000 would make it a very simple setup and could bring smile on my face tomorrow
Looking good
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  • #918
  • Jan 24, 2012 3:14am Jan 24, 2012 3:14am
Today's technical watchlist includes same setups as yesterday (apart from Gold - this sure looks heavy to me, but I made my decision not to position trade it so what will be will be) but includes:

1. The USDNOK setup as per Greenhaze's chart.
2. Looking for an ECAD long given the weekly BUOB. Watching 4HR chart for confirmed breakout above 1.3145 area.
3. EJ at the 100.90-101.10 area is on my watchlist.
4. EG - if it breaks out of current area then this is a future potential FTB setup (0.8378 area)

If someone has a good go at explaining the reason behind the near perfect ENZD / NU correlation I'll provide some examples of how to use inter-market correlations together with risk sentiment to pick good probability trades (hint: the same correlation existed on AU versus EAUD at the same time).
  • #919
  • Jan 24, 2012 3:43am Jan 24, 2012 3:43am
Quoting lovejoy80
Today's technical watchlist includes same setups as yesterday (apart from Gold - this sure looks heavy to me, but I made my decision not to position trade it so what will be will be) but includes:

1. The USDNOK setup as per Greenhaze's chart.
2. Looking for an ECAD long given the weekly BUOB. Watching 4HR chart for confirmed breakout above 1.3145 area.
3. EJ at the 100.90-101.10 area is on my watchlist.
4. EG - if it breaks out of current area then this is a future potential FTB setup (0.8378 area)

If someone has a good go at explaining...
Watching this chart closely too for some Euro bias...
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  • #920
  • Jan 24, 2012 11:00am Jan 24, 2012 11:00am
Quote
Current technical setups on the radar:


2. FTB long on AU @ 1.0435 area.

Remember 'efficient trade management' is not taking 100% profit at the FLR/FLS ... and what does efficient trade management lead to - faster account growth for the same given risk
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