EURUSD

Short at 1.29750

to expect the Euro to go up? The only talk is how Greece is uncooperative and will probably default. I can't even figure why it went up past the 2800's other than your standard retrace.

- Euro can't maintain their gains (high top end wicks on the candles)
- Dow & futures is in the negative the last couple days.
- The Greek default looming.
- PMI numbers were nothing to write home about.
- Talk of Euro recession on the horizon.

Any explanations? Other than the USD has it's own problems but lately the news has been positive.

That's what I'm talking about.
also the 3hr Heikin-ashi has it going down.

Possibly BOJ/China buying EUR to improve the conditions for JPY/CNY exports to Europe.

I'm done for today.

18 winners
3 losers
+2% to deposit.

Green pips to all folks.

Guys

What in Your opinion is most reliable/ most popular Moving Average or pair of Moving Averages for EURUSD?

Thanks

who want short now...

Look at the daily, it bounced 3 days in a row from 21 ema yesterday being bullish outside day.

Hard to get more clearer picture than that. Bearish momentum would be back below 1.2900/10. But will see.

Well, intraday has been mess, thanks for the 1.3 option stuff.

Today's PA on the EURUSD is very classical and some people will have made good money and some people will have lost their shirt, whilst others will be around breakeven. So ask ask yourself honestly where do you fit in that, how did you do?

To help some of the newer traders here I thought to outline possible plays and how they should of worked out or gone wrong..... so if you lost your shirt today have a read and see if you could have done it better....

obviously I should point out there are many ways to trade but these are some of the more tried and tested options for today...

1. Expecting a move higher

Fair enough you think the PA of the last week will take the EU higher.
Two ways you could've of traded that:

a) A break high - some will have taken the spike M5 or M15 bar as a signal and gone long maybe as it took the high of 3037 and you got hurt. Why because the best play would've been to wait for a close above yesterdays high especially as it was only 15 pips away....

Now some will say yes but I was scalping but buying at the top of a new high isn't in the scalping manual....

b) Buy on a dip on good support say around 1.3000 level definately the best long play here as a break below the overnigh low of 1.2987 proves you wrong and you get out for a small loss.... chances are you took the M15 pin bar close @ 8:45 gmt entered around 1.3010 got a quick ride up and quick ride down, maybe you banked some maybe not but you should be at least BE on.

Buying those dips after the big spike, not quite such a good plan, already had quick rejection of that high and the closes are getting lower... but again so long as you bought low and put a stop under that overnight low no real harm done.

If you bought anywhere else you were playing a very risky game.

2. Expected a move lower.

Again fair enough we have reached some technicals that give rise to a possible correction of the run up from 1.2623 how did you play it?

1. Sell the breakout - standard stuff sell a close below the last low the asian low 1.2987. On this basis you would have only entered on the recent spike bar down. But wait you would be in red!! yep because it was a big spike bar down so you should have waited for a retracement because the move was serve and bound to be tested and so you still would not be in a trade. But if you are new you should be forgiven for that one.

2. Sell a high - good plan watch the action pick a level likely to meet resistence and sell into it. If it break through get out small loss no harm done. Otherwise you just hit a good entry point for a short. Protect it with a stop above that resistence level.
So for today you would have sold the close of that big spike bar up that challanged yesterdays high, maybe you waited for a little confirmation and got a lower price but still up there in the sky.

If you sold this anywhere else you played a risky game trying to catch a trade in the middle.

3. I want to scalp it

Well okay some do that, but best advice to new traders don't even think about it until you prove to yourself you can trade S&R and make a profit.

Scalping is not the same as range trading don't get confused with this.

4. Range Trading

Another good strategy for today, but in the beginning you wouldn't of known that it would range and at the end it has broken out of range, so the safest way to play that was buying off the 1.3 support level and selling higher, but as those highs got lower so the risk was increasing each time but you should of come out on top no problem today.

thanks! your advice is very much needed. it's very informative. keep them coming, cheers

The trend is moving up again ....
Don't short in front of the train ...

I jump out too early from my long position
trying to get back in now....

+9 pip x 5 ... back to long

MaxDoom, Z3iz3i

just went entered a series of swing trades (see trade explorer)

If you are looking to trade MA cross-overs they only work for long term swing trades with wide stops.

Otherwise work with the ones the pros use because the whole point it to pick a timing from them that everybody else is using otherwise they have no meaning.

21, 100 ,200

kinda agree.

Are we going to see EUR/USD at 1.3040 again??

anything is possible. current move is most likely London taking profits at the end of the day and after the spike down.

I will look to short it myself.

This will be my last post today.

One thing, market gets thinner, so watch out for shorting this.
Likely not much news, and stops were done earlier which means moves can be quite jumpy.

BS