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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,681
  • Jan 19, 2012 6:23pm Jan 19, 2012 6:23pm
Quoting realjumper
So any time another country buys bonds at a bond auction, you think that is intervention do you?

Listen......I'll type it slowly for you. Azumi WILL NOT intervene in the FX market under the current conditions. This was explained to you here

For goodness sake.....get over this 'intervention' talk that is stuck in your head. Focus on some solid TA and/or FA.

There IS NO INTERVENTION taking place at this time....GEDDIT?

hahhaha..ok...i just like to speculate sir that is only my area of interest
Bismillah
  • #29,682
  • Jan 20, 2012 10:53am Jan 20, 2012 10:53am
Opened a separate account to do some short-term trading aside from my long-term long yen position, wow do I not like trading this pair so far.
  • #29,683
  • Jan 20, 2012 12:06pm Jan 20, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting realjumper
So any time another country buys bonds at a bond auction, you think that is intervention do you?

Listen......I'll type it slowly for you. Azumi WILL NOT intervene in the FX market under the current conditions. This was explained to you here

For goodness sake.....get over this 'intervention' talk that is stuck in your head. Focus on some solid TA and/or FA.

There IS NO INTERVENTION taking place at this time....GEDDIT?
Where does your need to be rude come from, a bad day at work ?

Do agree on your comments with regard to intervention. Just dont see the need to be rude.
  • #29,684
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:25pm Jan 20, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting SIgurs
Where does your need to be rude come from, a bad day at work ?

Do agree on your comments with regard to intervention. Just dont see the need to be rude.
If you read my comments you would see that I have been polite.......but I am just not getting through to that poster who is talking utter rubbish and spreading mis-information. There comes a time when being a bit more direct and blunt is necessary.

Where does your need to be sarcastic come from?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #29,685
  • Jan 20, 2012 9:19pm Jan 20, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting realjumper
If you read my comments you would see that I have been polite.......but I am just not getting through to that poster who is talking utter rubbish and spreading mis-information. There comes a time when being a bit more direct and blunt is necessary.

Where does your need to be sarcastic come from?

ok....0-0 ok..... we just share..... n good for discuss ...... we have make this discussion like this because from this we can increase our idea n knowledge about this yen behavior
Bismillah
  • #29,686
  • Jan 21, 2012 6:53am Jan 21, 2012 6:53am
as an intervention opportunist, i've slowly diversified my account moving away from risk pairs like EURUSD GBPUSD, and positioning more and more of my account to Long USDJPY and EURCHF
Expecting both USDJPY and EURCHF intervention to happen sooner than later...
EURCHF potentiallly lethal, been stacking up longs at 1.2050, more to load at 1.20 and 1.1950 and so on
because the peg could eventually fly to 1.35/1.40
The EURCHF peg at 1.20 to long there is a given.. SNB spokesman telling deflation pressure will lead to more drastic measure to weaken the CHF... the fact that them admitting the CHF is still too strong at 1.2 tell you they have a something in plans, the WHAT matter solved... all that waits is the WHEN

as for USDJPY, i have no idea how much longer they can keep the YEN so strong...
there are signs of their economy slowling down really fast now from the recent JPY datas
Japan is a country that needs a positive Trade balance to finance its 210% debt to GDP ratio, and its getting hard to see how Japan can sustain having their Trade balance positive with a Strong YEN for so long... if they dont watch out they will get in trouble... the only reason why the YEN is so strong is because the yen is only in a phase where they are purchasing assets abroad which would help with a strong yen, but an economy which is so reliant on their exports, i am seeing a need for a STRONG STRONG weakening of the YEN before their economy starts to struggle...
my expected intervention target for USDJPY target, not that impressive but i got 80 in my mind
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #29,687
  • Jan 21, 2012 6:57am Jan 21, 2012 6:57am
Quoting bguguen
as an intervention opportunist, i've slowly diversified my account moving away from risk pairs like EURUSD GBPUSD, and positioning more and more of my account to Long USDJPY and EURCHF
Expecting both USDJPY and EURCHF intervention to happen sooner than later...
EURCHF potentiallly lethal, been stacking up longs at 1.2050, more to load at 1.20 and 1.1950 and so on
because the peg could eventually fly to 1.35/1.40
The EURCHF peg at 1.20 to long there is a given.. SNB spokesman telling deflation pressure will lead to more drastic measure to weaken...
THATS why azumi is more concern about europe economy for now .... he think if euro crisis still hapen...the yen still have potnetial to get stronger n stronger!!
Bismillah
  • #29,688
  • Jan 21, 2012 7:28am Jan 21, 2012 7:28am
Quoting krunfx
THATS why azumi is more concern about europe economy for now .... he think if euro crisis still hapen...the yen still have potnetial to get stronger n stronger!!
indeed... but intervention doesnt mean yen has to flood their economy with money and stuff... actually if the EURO crisis is gona continue and knowing the YEN will get stronger and stronger... MORE REASON to intervene NOW, not LATER...
however i dont see mini interventions like they do most of the time would world
i think what the JPY should do in intervention is to PEG the YEN to the EURO, that will immediately decrease the demand for yen and im sure as hell BOJ has MORE THAN ENOUGH to enforce it like the SNB did to EURCHF...
Yes how about a EURJPY PEG?!
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #29,689
  • Jan 21, 2012 7:34am Jan 21, 2012 7:34am
Quoting bguguen
indeed... but intervention doesnt mean yen has to flood their economy with money and stuff... actually if the EURO crisis is gona continue and knowing the YEN will get stronger and stronger... MORE REASON to intervene NOW, not LATER...
however i dont see mini interventions like they do most of the time would world
i think what the JPY should do in intervention is to PEG the YEN to the EURO, that will immediately decrease the demand for yen and im sure as hell BOJ has MORE THAN ENOUGH to enforce it like the SNB did to EURCHF...
Yes how about a EURJPY...
dont think so since their economy is bigger and it should must be approve by G7 first to do that...
Bismillah
  • #29,690
  • Edited 11:03pm Jan 21, 2012 9:47pm | Edited 11:03pm
I suspect subwave iv completed at 77.3 and wave v is now underway in what might either be an expanding or diagonal (wedge) triangle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 1hr.jpg Size: 64 KB
  • #29,691
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:32pm Jan 22, 2012 2:32pm
Testing the dbl headed dragon....GL!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 4hr.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #29,692
  • Jan 22, 2012 9:38pm Jan 22, 2012 9:38pm
Near term outlook in USD/JPY is rather mixed for the moment as last week's break of 76.57 was not followed by follow-through selling
very nice, good price..!
  • #29,693
  • Jan 22, 2012 9:46pm Jan 22, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting Jose Louis
Near term outlook in USD/JPY is rather mixed for the moment as last week's break of 76.57 was not followed by follow-through selling

Yes, the good folks at Action Forex do say that. But I see no need to simply copy/paste their statement without due reference.
  • #29,694
  • Jan 22, 2012 11:48pm Jan 22, 2012 11:48pm
Quoting Mpt
Yes, the good folks at Action Forex do say that. But I see no need to simply copy/paste their statement without due reference.
just folow the clue from mr azumi then u will success trade yen
Bismillah
  • #29,695
  • Jan 23, 2012 10:21am Jan 23, 2012 10:21am
Monetary policy will take place in a couple of hours, if ever there was a strategic and appropriate time for the Japanese to do something about the Yen's strength , it would be now, as it seems the EU has departed (not to return anytime soon)from its all time lows , and the USD being the USD is bound to resume its downward trend vs the YEN , as it will now get a bit of the spotlight that was entirely focused on the EZ crisis.
I have pretty much concluded the BoJ and Mr Azumi to be absolutely clueless as to how to go about handling this particular issue, but here is hoping something positive in favor of the Yen happens tonight. Setting my U/J long just before Tokyo session opens.
If nothing conclusive happens , will just have to close it and open next long when it breaks all time low, or when they start observing/monitoring/watching closely etc.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,696
  • Jan 23, 2012 10:35am Jan 23, 2012 10:35am
Quoting Fidza
Monetary policy will take place in a couple of hours, if ever there was a strategic and appropriate time for the Japanese to do something about the Yen's strength , it would be now, as it seems the EU has departed (not to return anytime soon)from its all time lows , and the USD being the USD is bound to resume its downward trend vs the YEN , as it will now get a bit of the spotlight that was entirely focused on the EZ crisis.
I have pretty much concluded the BoJ and Mr Azumi to be absolutely clueless as to how to go about handling this particular...
The EURUSD is going up and not coming down for a long time? Thanks for the tip. I'll bet my life savings on it.

Why can't people come on here and talk about actually trading the UJ pair, rather than constantly complaining about the BOJ "being clueless"' ... all because those people haven't had their weekly dose of intervention. I'm sure that with a staff of hundreds, if not thousands, and with several decades of experience behind them, the BOJ et al might have a vague idea of what they're up against.
  • #29,697
  • Edited 1:50pm Jan 23, 2012 1:38pm | Edited 1:50pm
Quoting Mpt
The EURUSD is going up and not coming down for a long time? Thanks for the tip. I'll bet my life savings on it.

Why can't people come on here and talk about actually trading the UJ pair, rather than constantly complaining about the BOJ "being clueless"' ... all because those people haven't had their weekly dose of intervention. I'm sure that with a staff of hundreds, if not thousands, and with several decades of experience behind them, the BOJ et al might have a vague idea of what they're up against.
I don't recall mentioning EUR/USD once but please do track back to prove me wrong, I was referring to EUR/JPY not returning to that low anytime soon(By EU , I mean EURO as opposed to E/U which would be the pair you are referring to. )
I also dont recall mentioning any intervention either , but that the policy meeting was taking place tonight , there are a number of things that can be done to drive the Yen down without intervention, but as was proven 3 times prior to this , the BoJ, despite their vast pool of intellect as you point out, has opted for the least sensible option of throwing vast amounts of money at the market for what gain??? None whatsoever , if you consider that to be a sound strategy and give them credit for it , thats your opinion, I have no issues with them being sensible or not I can make a few decent pips either way, but before you come and have a pop at my view (thats right my view, I am not twisting your arm to see things my way)at the very least read it properly before contradicting on it.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,698
  • Jan 23, 2012 3:17pm Jan 23, 2012 3:17pm
Usd/Jpy Weekly View (23-27th of January), 4 Hours chart in analogy with 15 Pips Constant Range Bars Chart.

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image710.jpg

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image589.jpg

Usd/Jpy has resumed the Downtrend on Higher Time Frames and has retraced Last week back to the Main Downtrend Line.

Bullish Probability could Break the Downtrend Line around 77,345(Key-Level, confluence between weekly R1 and 200SMA on 4 HOurs Chart) and continue upside to 77,717(Weekly R2 Pivot) before a Bearish retracement back to the DownTrend Line.

Bearish Probability could Break 76,95(Weekly Main Pivot Line close confluence with 30,50 and 100SMA on 4Hours Chart) and then Continue to the next support at 76,575(Weekly S1 Pivot confluence with secondary Downtrend Line). From here we could see a Sideways Move between the two Pivots, with a possible False Breakout to 76,177(Weekly S2 Pivot).

To your Success,

Doctortyby
  • #29,699
  • Jan 23, 2012 3:24pm Jan 23, 2012 3:24pm
enter a small short....with a target @ 76.70
  • #29,700
  • Jan 23, 2012 6:25pm Jan 23, 2012 6:25pm
Japan Govt:

To Keep Monitoring FX Market, Take Decisive Steps When Needed
Excessive Volatility In FX Market Bad For Econ
Won't Achieve Primary Balance By FY20 Even With 10% Sales Tax


is they gonna to step into market soon???
Bismillah
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