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  • #20,421
  • Jan 22, 2012 4:05pm Jan 22, 2012 4:05pm
Quoting Geppy
Why do you feel the need to call someone out that's just observing a thread?
Hi Geppy ... apology if you feel offended .. take it easy
  • #20,422
  • Jan 22, 2012 4:09pm Jan 22, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting Geppy
Why do you feel the need to call someone out that's just observing a thread?
I am sure he is very sorry. Peace out Geppy. You are most welcome here in our cozy little family. Good Fortune !!!
  • #20,423
  • Jan 22, 2012 4:13pm Jan 22, 2012 4:13pm
50 pips gapdown in fxopen broker ... closed all weekend Sale positions with TP ... price break the support at 1.2880 but since Asia close (I guess) we could only able to see this pair down ... since the buying factor will be missing in this session. (IMO )
  • #20,424
  • Jan 22, 2012 4:13pm Jan 22, 2012 4:13pm
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-official.html

Journalist VS ECB in Ireland...

The video below is from a European Central Bank press-conference in Ireland. Journalist Vincent Browne demands that the ECB representative explain why the ECB required the Irish people to bail out a bank's uninsured creditors. The bureaucrat mouths bland reassurances, then asserts (despite all appearances to the contrary) that the question has been answered
  • #20,425
  • Jan 22, 2012 4:25pm Jan 22, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting Geppy
Why do you feel the need to call someone out that's just observing a thread?

Bismillah
  • #20,426
  • Jan 22, 2012 4:31pm Jan 22, 2012 4:31pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_h4_20.01.12.jpg Size: 140 KB
  • #20,427
  • Jan 22, 2012 4:55pm Jan 22, 2012 4:55pm
He comes out of hiding on Tuesday January 24, 2012 and makes his appearance publically on Wednesday January 25, 2012 just before he flies away to Davos, Switzerland. It is time to tune him in again as he will have an immediate effect on the Markets.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80L0NU20120122
  • #20,428
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:01pm Jan 22, 2012 5:01pm
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...1.23.2012.html

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame..._FOMC_Key.html

Snippet:


The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) tumbled fell sharply for five consecutive trading days, taking a hit as traders likely unloaded much of their speculative USD-long positions. The Euro finally showed sustained signs of life against the Greenback and we believe it may have set an important short-term bottom. But it will be critical to watch key events out of the US and its effects on the otherwise resurgent US Dollar.


The Euro/US Dollar currently stands at somewhat of a crossroads, and it will be important to watch financial markets in the coming days to gauge whether a breakout or breakdown is more likely. Traders initially sent the US Dollar higher against the Euro to start the year’s trading, but the most recent reversal leaves the exchange rate almost exactly flat year-to-date.


All eyes turn to the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setting decision on Wednesday and end-of week US Gross Domestic Product growth data.

The Fed is very unlikely to change interest rates or monetary policy, but it will unveil a fairly significant new tool in its arsenal: interest rate forecasts. Federal Open Market Committee voting members will show when they interest rates will be raised through 2016—giving a much more specific view on when markets can actually predict its next moves. It’s difficult to predict what the reports will show and much less predict how markets will react. Yet we feel it may have fairly significant effect on the US Dollar, US S&P 500 and other key asset classes.


Markets will otherwise look at end-of-week US GDP growth figures with great interest. Surprisingly robust domestic unemployment figures have boosted expectations for economic expansion, and analysts predict the economy grew at its fastest pace since Q2, 2010. We get the sense that such lofty predictions leaves a lot of room for disappointment, however; expect markets to sell off on any big misses.

The USD could see sympathetic declines (or advances) if the print affects outlook for broader growth in any significant way.


US Dollar traders should otherwise keep a close eye on global financial market risk appetite. The US Dollar has enjoyed fairly significant rallies on any sudden sell-offs in the S&P 500 and similar ‘risk’ barometers. The S&P seems happy to rally to fresh multi-month peaks with very few pullbacks. Yet such remarkably consistent strength leaves clear risk that markets have grown altogether too complacent.


Recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report data showed that net speculative futures positions on the Euro/US Dollar hit their most bearish on record. In other words, trend-following speculators were their most long USD in history. We had been calling for a noteworthy EURUSD short-covering rally for some time now, and indeed it seems that’s what we’re seeing traders unload some of those positions. Yet the longer-term trend favors further losses, and it will be important to watch whether the sudden rally has the staying power to continue through next week.


Currencies tend to set their highs and lows for the month in the first trading week. That leaves significant EURUSD resistance at the $1.3070 mark—a potential make-or-break for US Dollar strength. – DR
  • #20,429
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:08pm Jan 22, 2012 5:08pm
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=13329

Lot's of charts and information you will not read in the mainstream press.

Snippet:

The US Stock Market – Why E-Wave Practitioners Are Bearish


Below is a chart of the S&P 500 showing the major bearish wave count that most e-wave practitioners nowadays deem to be their 'primary' count, i.e. the one that has the highest probability of being correct. We have shown this count many months ago already in one of our projections, but acknowledged at the time that it was very difficult to gauge how wave 2 – if that is indeed what it is – would play out, due to the fact that corrective waves can, and often do, increase in complexity.
The main reason why most e-wavers are now using this count (or a variation thereof), is that the putative major wave 1 down was an impulse wave, i.e., a five wave structure. Such structures determine the direction of the main trend in Elliott wave theory. Therefore most e-wavers are now bearish on the market and are waiting for wave 2 to end.


http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...wave-count.png

The bearish Elliott wave count of the S&P 500. according to this wave count, the market is in a corrective wave that will resolve in a major new down trend, a third wave down (wave III indicated above). This wave count would be invalidated IF the current upward trend manages to put in a new nominal high above the point where wave 1 began. Should such an invalidation occur it will be back to the drawing board, but until then, the above wave count continues to look highly plausible - click chart for better resolution.

Snippet:


Summary:


In conclusion we can say: even though there may be some more near term strength in 'risk assets', there are a great many warning signs on the horizon. One should carefully evaluate how the indicators evolve, regardless of whether the euro area crisis remains a market focus or not.
Considerable volatility could be on its way once the current short term uptrend in stocks and commodities ends. If indeed the wave count presented above turns out to be correct, then the US stock market will experience a considerable setback in the not too distant future. Investors should prepare themselves accordingly – it is better to be safe than sorry. As we have pointed out in our 2012 outlook piece, this year promises to be just as volatile as last year was, if not more so.

Addendum:


Curiously enough, sentiment on gold and silver remains extremely subdued. This could be a sign that the precious metals sector will decouple from the stock market this year – although there is of course no guarantee of that. In part it will depend on how wild the action in stocks eventually gets. We will soon discuss the precious metals again in more detail.
  • #20,430
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:18pm Jan 22, 2012 5:18pm
I would like to know your opinions on the Greek CDS

seems to me that the EZ wants to restructure without triggering a credit event,thus not triggering the Credit Default Swaps, however, the CDS market is not nearly as big as the bond potential losses.

In attempting to save face by not "defaulting" wouldn't that be counter productive as they would dry up demand for other periphery countries debt purchases?

i mean if i want to hedge my exposure by buying CDS, then if my CDS are not triggered that would rendered these derivatives worthless....so i would re frain from taking naked exposure to potentially toxic assets wouldn't i?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,431
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:19pm Jan 22, 2012 5:19pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46092994

Snippet:

ATHENS/LONDON (Reuters) - Private creditors said on Sunday they had come to the limits of what losses they could concede in a Greek debt swap, putting the ball in the court of the EU and the IMF in a tense race against the clock to avoid a messy default.

Athens needs a deal on the plan, meant to cut 100 billion euros (£129.3 billion) from its debt burden of over 350 billion, in coming days to stay afloat when a major debt redemption falls due in March.

Greece and its private creditors are converging towards an agreement that would see private creditors accepting a real loss of 65 to 70 percent, sources close to the talks said after several rounds of talks last week.

Athens and its creditors have broadly agreed that under the so-called PSI deal, the new bonds would likely feature 30-year maturity and a progressive interest rate averaging out at 4 percent, sources said.

But many details are still unresolved and the plan must also win approval from the IMF, EU paymaster Germany and the other euro zone countries, who insist the deal must put Greece's debt back on a sustainable track.
The offer conveyed to the Greek authorities "is the maximum consistent with a voluntary deal," a spokesman for the Institute of International Finance, which negotiates in the name of private creditors, said on Sunday.

The "voluntary" character of the debt restructuring is important for the euro zone to avoid triggering the pay-out of insurance against a Greek default.
  • #20,432
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:24pm Jan 22, 2012 5:24pm
Quoting the redlion
I would like to know your opinions on the Greek CDS

seems to me that the EZ wants to restructure without triggering a credit event,thus not triggering the Credit Default Swaps, however, the CDS market is not nearly as big as the bond potential losses.

In attempting to save face by not "defaulting" wouldn't that be counter productive as they would dry up demand for other periphery countries debt purchases?

i mean if i want to hedge my exposure by buying CDS, then if my CDS are not triggered that would rendered these derivatives worthless....so...
From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
You can conclude a few very important points from this:
1. QE will go to infinity before facts overwhelm MOPE and it hits the fan.

2. The credit event about to occur in Greece will not be deemed a default because the largest 5 US banks carry 97% of the so-called insurance, credit default swaps, therefore if Greece defaults (a credit event condition determined by an organization made up of major US banks and investment houses ) those banks would be hammered into financial hell.

3. Gold’s true range in 2012 will be $1700 to $2100.
  • #20,433
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:29pm Jan 22, 2012 5:29pm
Quoting the redlion
I would like to know your opinions on the Greek CDS

seems to me that the EZ wants to restructure without triggering a credit event,thus not triggering the Credit Default Swaps, however, the CDS market is not nearly as big as the bond potential losses.

In attempting to save face by not "defaulting" wouldn't that be counter productive as they would dry up demand for other periphery countries debt purchases?

i mean if i want to hedge my exposure by buying CDS, then if my CDS are not triggered that would rendered these derivatives worthless....so...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...79S1FN20111029

Snippet:


By Sarah White and Douwe Miedema
LONDON | Sat Oct 29, 2011 8:54am EDT


LONDON (Reuters) - The future of the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market -- used to hedge against the risk of a country defaulting -- may be at risk if these derivative instruments do not pay out after this week's rescue deal for Greece.

An implosion of the sovereign CDS market could lead investors to buy fewer government bonds because they feel they cannot protect themselves, and risks pushing up borrowing costs for governments, especially in the euro zone.

Private sector creditors such as insurers, banks and funds will take losses of 100 billion euros on their Greek debt holdings under a new bailout pact struck this week, sharing the burden of the costly rescue with taxpayers.
But the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) -- a bank lobby that also decides whether an event triggers the CDS -- has said it's not likely that the restructuring would lead to a pay-out.

"The CDS market is being keelhauled. This certainly isn't going to help, because why would you buy a CDS if there will never be a payout?" said one well-placed industry source, referring to the Greek situation.
  • #20,434
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:40pm Jan 22, 2012 5:40pm
yeah i figured that, i am researching who is liable to take the hit.

But it still makes no sense to me it is another save the banks to Fuck the governments or the people.

I mean, yes you do save the banks holding the liabilities however you dry up PUBLIC sector demand for bonds, driving the yields up. Not to mention CDS as derivatives will be trash.

banks are soaking up the debt due to the pressure and the incentive to offer them as collateral to the ECB for liquidity.

how about the big HEDGE funds and speculators that are also soaking up demand and covering their exposure?

i understand they want to save face and prevent contagion but it is precisely contagion that this will spread as demand dries up, so who will be insane enough to buy this potentially worthless papers.

i mean Greece will already do "haircuts" which Portugal, Italy and Spain will follow as Greece is the precedent.

so you have an even bigger debt monetizing as ECB will end up soaking up all the bonds from here on out, directly through expanding the balance sheet or indirectly accepting gov paper as collateral.

isn't this what Germany does not want?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #20,435
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:42pm Jan 22, 2012 5:42pm
Quoting the redlion
yeah i figured that, i am researching who is liable to take the hit.

But it still makes no sense to me it is another save the banks to Fuck the governments or the people.

I mean, yes you do save the banks holding the liabilities however you dry up PUBLIC sector demand for bonds, driving the yields up. Not to mention CDS as derivatives will be trash.

banks are soaking up the debt due to the pressure and the incentive to offer them as collateral to the ECB for liquidity.

how about the big HEDGE funds and speculators that are also soaking up...
http://www.businessinsider.com/this-...iagram-2011-12
  • #20,436
  • Edited 5:47pm Jan 22, 2012 5:45pm | Edited 5:47pm
http://www.businessinsider.com/seven...s-in-fx-2012-1

Good Article...

http://www.businessinsider.com/grokk...lations-2012-1
  • #20,437
  • Edited 7:03pm Jan 22, 2012 5:47pm | Edited 7:03pm
Quoting the redlion
I would like to know your opinions on the Greek CDS

seems to me that the EZ wants to restructure without triggering a credit event,thus not triggering the Credit Default Swaps, however, the CDS market is not nearly as big as the bond potential losses.

In attempting to save face by not "defaulting" wouldn't that be counter productive as they would dry up demand for other periphery countries debt purchases?

i mean if i want to hedge my exposure by buying CDS, then if my CDS are not triggered that would rendered these derivatives worthless....so...
the issue is not about saving face. Any event which triggers a CDS pay out has the potential to bring down the entire western financial system.

the real problem is nobody knows the level of exposure the CDS guys have. The CDS guys, typically major financial institutions, have been selling default insurance in an unregulated and non transparent market. So nobody really knows how deep the pit is. But what is certain is that faced with a multibillion dollar pay out (potentially a multi trillion dollar pay out) these major institutions would be forced to go bankrupt. This would set off the contagion that everybody fears and the western financial system would collapse.

Of course the guys that thought they were hedged now discover that all the insurance money they paid out was a scam and they were always sitting with naked exposure. They are pissed. They are also thinking twice about purchasing more bonds in the primary market which reduces demand drives up rates. There is more of the same in the secondary markets where they are liquidating the positions they falsely imagined to be hedged.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #20,438
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:50pm Jan 22, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting Wulfgar
that really is still up for debate... simple fact of the matter is do the major hedge funds want to take the 70% haircut on their GGB exposure OR do they want to go ahead and let greece default so they can get ALL their money back via calling in their CDS's

Remember all it takes is ONE HF to block this entire thing... honestly all it would take to block this entire deal is one hedge fun to buy out a 3 billion euro blocking stake of UK-law Greek bonds ... then greece has absolutely 0 leverage and it is a forced credit event.... means a massive...
It comes down to moral suasion... Will a few HF traders potentially cause a monumental amount of pain on the world and throw it into a deep dark depression for personal gain? Because they can.


I talked about it earlier

It wouldn't take much for a hedge fund cartel to guarantee a credit event.... Positioned correctly, a few can absolutely shift the balance of power in the financial world with this for minimal cost
  • #20,439
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:52pm Jan 22, 2012 5:52pm
Quoting the redlion
so you have an even bigger debt monetizing as ECB will end up soaking up all the bonds from here on out, directly through expanding the balance sheet or indirectly accepting gov paper as collateral.

isn't this what Germany does not want?
At a certain point what Germany wants stops being relevant. And we are long since past that point. Basic plan is for the ECB to soak up all this debt and statements otherwise are quite simply, lies. The facts are that not only is this the plan, it has been underway for some time and the entire process is in fact accelerating.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #20,440
  • Jan 22, 2012 5:54pm Jan 22, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting Wulfgar
It comes down to moral suasion... Will a few HF traders potentially cause a monumental amount of pain on the world and throw it into a deep dark depression for personal gain? Because they can.


I talked about it earlier

It wouldn't take much for a hedge fund cartel to guarantee a credit event.... Positioned correctly, a few can absolutely shift the balance of power in the financial world with this for minimal cost
hey wulfie.. the quote fuction deprived me of the entirety of your wise words... any chance you could post it in its glorious entirety or provide the link?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
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