EurAnalysis | Page 1012 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #20,221
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:21am Jan 20, 2012 5:21am
Quoting rekon67
meant to Say going Long Term on SHORT ... since long target pretty well achieved ..
Yes.. I am long term short
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,222
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:23am Jan 20, 2012 5:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
I'm still waiting for $1350
With all the secret money printing odds are good we will never see $1500 ever again. In case anyone has forgotten another Risk Event starts on Tuesday, January 24 and and then on Wednesday we know what they will have done.

They being Ron's favorite friend's, The Federal Reserve !!!
  • #20,223
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:23am Jan 20, 2012 5:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes.. I am long term short
  • #20,224
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:25am Jan 20, 2012 5:25am
Quoting knoholygrail

  1. There are times when a carry trade or safe haven currency when Risk is off is USD/JPY. Then we always have the danger of Intervention as USD/JPY nears 76.00.
  2. My point is that EURO makes up 57.6% of the US Dollar Index and USD/JPY has less influence. My trading experience and it shows with movements as I have pointed out that when EUR/JPY starts to fall as has happened recently there is a similar move in EUR/USD.
  3. The reason for that is more Euro's are being sold than Yen bought. Now we see USD/JPY getting weaker at 77.23 and...

These are great points Kno. Thanks for your time to explain them.
  • #20,225
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:28am Jan 20, 2012 5:28am
Proto Thema Greek newspaper.

Apparently the parties agreed that new bonds to replace existing Greek debt would be of a 30 year maturity and carry a coupon beginning at 3.1%, reach 3.9% and go as high as 4.75%.

ADD: ...and who the heck is going to buy 30 year Greek debt???
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,226
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:31am Jan 20, 2012 5:31am
Quoting Tyoon
These are great points Kno. Thanks for your time to explain them.
Excellent questions and observations make it much easier for me to go deeper with my explanations. Your questions are a big help to myself and others so that a good discussion of the issues can be held. We are really building a excellent forex community on the thread that our friend PipTrapper started on September 25, 2011. We soon have our 4 month anniversary on January 25, 2012. That is also Federal Reserve Day.

Please keep your excellent questions and observations coming. Soon we can start a thread called Tyoon's Golden Nuggets !!!
  • #20,227
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:36am Jan 20, 2012 5:36am
If all the JPY pairs go down then what is effect on EURUSD ... down right? But is there any percentage to measure it?
  • #20,228
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:36am Jan 20, 2012 5:36am
Just To See Other View's Technically...

http://www.tradingcentral.com/newsle..._index_morning
  • #20,229
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:36am Jan 20, 2012 5:36am
Quoting knoholygrail
Tyoon's Golden Nuggets !!!
Haha, my golden nuggets are going to be kept between my legs (Lol, I will be happy to share my knowledge when I know what I am doing on a journal or something.)

Kno Also, are you essentially saying EJ is a leading indicator for EU?

PT! I have forgotten, you made an observation of a fib retracement that occurred often. Was it when price hit 76.4 or 88.6 it then falls to 38.2?
  • #20,230
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:44am Jan 20, 2012 5:44am
Quoting Tyoon
Haha, my golden nuggets are going to be kept between my legs (Lol, I will be happy to share my knowledge when I know what I am doing on a journal or something.)

Kno Also, are you essentially saying EJ is a leading indicator for EU?

PT! I have forgotten, you made an observation of a fib retracement that occurred often. Was it when price hit 76.4 or 88.6 it then falls to 38.2?
Yes, when the 88.6% fib level is rejected, price more often than not retraces back to the 38.2% fib level. If rejected at the 38.2% level, it then reverses back to the 88.6% and keeps going to either form a double top/bottom or continue on.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,231
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:46am Jan 20, 2012 5:46am
Quoting Tyoon
Haha, my golden nuggets are going to be kept between my legs

Kno Also, are essentially you saying the EJ is a leading indicator for EU?

PT! I have forgotten, you made an observation of a fib retracement that occurred often. Was it when price hit 76.4 or 88.6 it then falls to 38.2?
As an example when EUR/JPY was holding at round number 100.00 the other day you can find some of my recent posts that clearly stated that I was watching for EUR/JPY to break 100.00 and if it did and went down to 99.50 then EUR/USD would move down an almost equal amount of PIPS.

Since the main currency pair that I trade is EUR/USD whether short or long my FXCM UK Platform is set up as I have explained before with the first 4 currency pairs being;

EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and GBP/USD

Keep your questions coming and I will decline looking at your Golden Nuggets with respect.

You are a pleasure to communicate with. One day perhaps we will meet in person. Maybe we should have our First Annual Get Together on September 25, 2012 ? Who has a home big enough to hold us all ?

Hope and Dreams are part of PMA...

Positive Mental Attitude
  • #20,232
  • Jan 20, 2012 5:48am Jan 20, 2012 5:48am
Quoting Tyoon
Haha, my golden nuggets are going to be kept between my legs (Lol, I will be happy to share my knowledge when I know what I am doing on a journal or something.)

Kno Also, are you essentially saying EJ is a leading indicator for EU?

PT! I have forgotten, you made an observation of a fib retracement that occurred often. Was it when price hit 76.4 or 88.6 it then falls to 38.2?

PT Theorem: When price retraces to 88.6 fib level it will usually turn and head back to 38.2 fib level

see post>http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...em#post5267268
  • #20,233
  • Edited 6:11am Jan 20, 2012 5:57am | Edited 6:11am
Lol, too bad we only hit 76.4/61.8

Also, guys, get your fibs and extensions out and look out over your 1H dating back to 19 Dec. You will find some interesting things (if you haven't done so already).

My fib has:

161.8
138.2
123.6
100
88.6
76.4
61.8
50
38.2
23.6

Extension:

FE .236
FE .382
FE 61.8
FE 76.4
FE 100
ADD: FE 123.6
FE 138.2
FE 161.8
  • #20,234
  • Jan 20, 2012 6:12am Jan 20, 2012 6:12am
morning all, Hi bud i was short on e/u about 6 hours ago and took my 40 pips. i loaded up on it and left g/u alone plus i traded wall st and took 30 pips ,i closed that early as i lost my nerve lol. take care
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,235
  • Jan 20, 2012 6:15am Jan 20, 2012 6:15am
European morning wrap: 1.3000 in EUR/USD proves a bridge too far
Written by Gerry Davies
January 20, 2012 at 11:55 GMT

Greece, IIF forge initial accord on swap terms – Proto Thema says

Merkel to meet IMF’s Lagarde Sunday, then meet with EUs Barroso and Van Rompuy on Monday

Germany’s Schaeuble tells magazine Italy must reduce debt, a move it has been avoiding since the 1990′s – ouch!!

Senior Merkel coalition MP: Germany should not bring forward ESM payments without all countries participating

Sarkozy warns Greece not to delay decisions – Reuters

BOE’s Broadbent: Never pre-commited to more QE in February – MNI

Ex BOJ Iwata: Current yen rises far removed from economic fundamentals. Should set up 50 trln yen fund to buy foreign assets

German December PPI -0.4% m/m, +4.0% y/y, weaker than median forecasts +0.1%, +4.6% respectively

UK December retail sales +0.6% m/m, +2.6% y/y, pretty close to median forecasts of +0.7%, +2.5% respectively

Greek November current account deficit shrinks 7.3% y/y to -2.303 bln

Buba’s Dombret: Clarity from govts needed on financial transaction tax

Portugal to need “debt haircut” as economy tips into Grecian downward spiral – AEP at The Telegraph

EUR/USD down at 1.2910 from early 1.2960. Inbetween we’ve been up to 1.2986 and then all the way down to 1.2888 before steadying.

Intial rally fizzled out amid talk of ACB and option-related sell orders just ahead of the psychological 1.3000 level. We drifted back lower, before the move accelerated as trailing sell stops through 1.2950 were tripped.

We were in the process of steadying, when comments from Germany’s Finmin (see above) sent us fleetingly below 1.2900.

Talk of buy orders clustered down at 1.2875/85 ahead of 21 DMA helped lend some support and we rallied back above 1.2900. Late morning trade has slowed and we’ve been confined to relatively narrow range just North of 1.2900.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,236
  • Jan 20, 2012 6:22am Jan 20, 2012 6:22am
I know this harmonic is a bit fu(ked I can see price moving to 1.28.

..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: garly.gif Size: 65 KB
  • #20,237
  • Edited 6:37am Jan 20, 2012 6:28am | Edited 6:37am
This is what I look at in my charts along with sup/dem and fibs.
Using the THV3 here is anatomy of scalp over several timeframes, and how a scalp can become a swing/intraday trade or even a position trade in a parabolic move. It is imperative to protect capital if scalping as soon as possible.

Any questions I will answer best I can.

PT I apologize, in advance, for blowing up the thread with multiple charts
EDIT: HOURLY CLOSE BELOW CORAL @1.2885 WILL MAKE BEARISH THROUGH THE HOURLY CHART. MUST MONITOR LOWER TF'S TO BE READY FOR REVERSAL FOR SCALP IN THE OTHER DIRECTION
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1m-1-20-12.png Size: 129 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 5m-1-20-12.png Size: 138 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 15m-1-20-12.png Size: 141 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 30m-1-20-12.png Size: 157 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h-1-20-12.png Size: 150 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 5m-1-20-12_scalp.png Size: 152 KB
  • #20,238
  • Jan 20, 2012 6:34am Jan 20, 2012 6:34am
greek haircut might be released today, what do you guys think aboit 12880 being new support
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #20,239
  • Jan 20, 2012 6:57am Jan 20, 2012 6:57am
Quoting billytt
greek haircut might be released today, what do you guys think aboit 12880 being new support
I dont know ... price is like ...

http://www.forumsextreme.com/images/...ancing_Cat.gif
  • #20,240
  • Jan 20, 2012 6:58am Jan 20, 2012 6:58am
Quoting billytt
greek haircut might be released today, what do you guys think aboit 12880 being new support
All the upside on the Euro so far has been a combination of the following..

1. Technical correction (long overdue)
2. Covering of Euro short and USD long positions
3. BOJ buying Euro in a stealthy intervention
4. Rumors about IMF boosting its lending capacity by 500 billion
5. Assumption that a haircut deal for Greece is good for the banks (bullocks)

So when the sheep finally remove the wool from in front of their eyes, the Euro downtrend should continue with a vengeance.

My target is sub 1.20
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
36 traders viewing now