EurAnalysis

Right now i could say you see i told you so, but i am going to say, you see i told you so.

Hey PK, I may lose my beer money.......and my shirt!

Shorts in place...



CJ

I was out most of the day and I just finished catching up on all the fundamental news out there. The one thing that I noticed on money flow is that the 10 Year US Bonds sold off quite a bit. I would guess much of that money went into the Euro. The Yield on the 2 Year Bond only went from .22% to .23%. Look at my benchmarks this morning. The 10 Year Us Bonds went from 1.86% to 1.98% and the 12 Basis points is a Major Move. That says longer term for more safety for longer than 2 Years and better Yield to park the money. Therefore less fear to hold Euro and sell the US Bonds get US Cash and Buy Euro's.

I am not so sure they can find a solution to Greece. If there is haircuts of 68% that in itself is BAD for Banks and other Bond holders. If it all falls apart it will be a major problem since then writeoffs need to be taken and some banks might go under.

I would be very careful on the longs here however I cannot be sure. If it breaks 1.3000 I will reconsider however ONE FALSE STEP in the talks and it all will come tumbling down. My favorite analyst on this subject Jim Willie came out with about 80 pages of research. I will read it tonight after I print it out and I will share parts here that relate to this issue. For now I am off to supper. Let's see where EUR/USD is at 10:00 PM EST and also watch if EUR/JPY can go over 100.00 and stay there. It will bring EUR/USD with it. USD/JPY being weaker at 77.07 brings up EUR/JPY.

Good Evening...

Let's see more charts from you if you care to help out. How about a similar chart on EUR/JPY ?

Nice to see you post here...

I will be looking forward to it.

ADD: I see we are at 76.4 and nearing a TL. We have passed through two supply zones and I am very confident we are going to see a retest of the old UTL as LTL. 1.3 is an attractive number and that could be where it is going.

Speculation!

..

$$$ GREECE IS TO ATTEMPT SELLING BONDS BACKED BY STATE PROPERTY. THE INTEREST PAID (BOND YIELD) OVER 100% AND 200% ARE NOT WORKING, SO DESPERATION HAS SET IN. THE TACTIC DID NOT WORK DURING THE FRENCH REVOLUTION, NOR DID IT WORK TO END HYPER-INFLATION IN WEIMAR GERMANY. MEANWHILE, TALKS ON NEW BOND DEVICES HAVE STALLED, SINCE THE BROAD LIQUIDATION CARD IS NOT PERMITTED. THE CLOCK TICKS TOWARD MID-MARCH WHEN THE NEXT GREEK DEBT PAYMENT MUST BE MADE. $$$

The financial crisis has destroyed Greece. Their government bond market is totally ruined. Their banks are gutted, with the public making runs on them making withdrawals. Their nation's prized assets are up for grabs.

The crisis strewn nation of Greece plans to sell bonds with state property as collateral to buy back sovereign debt, in hopes to postpone a privatization drive. The market conditions are not favorable. The move steeps with desperation amidst the foul odor of charred ruins. Bear in mind that Weimar Germany introduced the RentenMark, an interim currency backed by real estate in the 1930 decade. Greece is trying to continue borrowing by backing bonds with land while staying with the Euro currency. The banking elite of Europe do not wish to see Greece depart the Euro Monetary Union.

Instead they wish to seize whatever Greek assets are not nailed down. Back seven decades ago, Germany tried in vain to end hyper-inflation by creating a more hard backed currency. They had forfeited all their gold after World War I. Both eras and stories involve land, to be sure. But all else are opposite. Watch for a curious eye as the Chinese might go shopping. See the Breitbart article (CLICK HERE).

The brokenness of the Greek situation is given bold emphasis every time a conference is held to solve it. Last week, Greece's creditor banks broke off talks after failing to agree with the government about how much money investors will lose by swapping their bonds. No accord can come of substance since liquidation of the Greek Govt bonds would force liquidation of many big European banks.

It will not be permitted, and thus the festering wound lingers in open view. BUT MAYBE SUCH A COMPREHENSIVE PLAN COMES IN MID-MARCH. Greece cannot submit to becoming the first sovereign default. Watch as a Goldman Sachs stooge is installed. Oops, already happened (see Lucas Papademos). Officials and creditors agreed in October to implement a 50% cut in the Greek debt securities valuation. On the table is a hefty EUR 100 billion (=US$127 bn) in debt forgiveness. The mini-Maastricht also called for reducing Greek borrowing to 120% of their GDP. Never gonna happen. No agreement on new bond details can be hammered out, like bond yield paid out. But the passage is nigh in their Parliament. Greece is to pass law that could force reluctant creditors into the bond swap, according to the Greek daily newspaper Ta Nea.

Without a new bond swap, Greece cannot receive the next aid package. Hans Humes of Greylock Capital Mgmt put it well. He said, "The sticking point is actually coming down to what the interest rate would be on the new bond. If the talks fail and Greece defaults, there will be a lot of contagion. The ball is in their court. If you want to do something to head off what could be a disorderly process, now is the time." Time is fast running out, as is patience. The D-Day seems to be March 20th, when the next EUR 14.5 billion bond payment is due by Greece.

Some analysts have said hedge funds holding Greek Govt bonds may resist the deal, as they strive to reap greater profit by triggering payouts from Credit Default Swaps. But the reality is a corrupted process, where CDSwap payouts are blocked by redefinitions and contract scoff. The talks ended in frustration, since no solution can occur. Talks will resume so as to maintain appearances. The key is liquidations, never discussed, never permitted. Bill Gross fully anticipates a Greek Govt debt default. He expects them to fail to meet their debt obligations. Standard & Poors cut the Greek grade to CC in July, translated to mean their debt is highly vulnerable to nonpayment, based on the company's rating definitions. Such a wretched low rating is equivalent to clean toilet paper.

Kno's Comments: Keep Your Eye On The Ball Not The BS !!!

From Jim Willie - No Link...

Many events could very arise in the course of the next several months. While empty talk continues about the continuation of QE3 (which never ended), the next salvo might come from the Assn of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). They could abandon the USDollar immediately after their new central bank apparatus is put in place. The trade war atmosphere would certainty open a dangerous doorway. The West seems unprepared for such disruptive developments. The USDollar is at deep risk to lose its global reserve currency. The immediate effect would be the USEconomy has difficulty in obtaining adequate supplies and at attractive prices. Price inflation and shortages would result of bidding up the required currencies.

No US-based economists are noticing, as usual asleep at the wheel with arrogant hands stretched on the helm. The West has entered the first stages of the catastrophic phase of the economic implosion. Many terrible consequences formerly considered theory or worst case scenario are about to become reality. The practical solution centers on defensive measures with gold & silver ownership. See the Zero Hedge article (CLICK HERE).

◄$$$ LONDON WISHES TO BECOME THE YUAN TRADING CENTER OF THE WEST. THE CITY WANTS TO REMAIN A MAJOR HUB FOR WHATEVER PAPER TRADE IS DOMINANT. THIS IS A GRAND CONFIRMATION SIGNAL OF YUAN ARRIVAL. $$$

London seeks a major role in the Chinese Yuan trade business. The UKGovt has confirmed plans to make London the leading international center for trading China's currency, the Yuan, also known as the renminbi (people's money). UK Chancellor George Osborne said, "London is perfectly placed to act as a gateway for Asian banking and investment in Europe." Expect billions of Pounds of business to result for the City. Osborne made the announcement in Hong Kong, stating a desire to establish London as the Western hub, as a complement to Hong Kong. He called London the world's largest center for foreign exchange, uniquely placed to assist in the development of this exciting market, following a relaxation of strict state controls in Beijing. London is the first of several cities to line up in the Yuan trade, where Chinese Govt Bonds will begin issuance. The Chatham House think tank released a report estimating that trade transactions settled in the Yuan currency would reach around $1 trillion dollars (=650bn GBP) by year 2020. What is overlooked is how London must shed its allegiance to the New York fraud kings. See the BBC article (CLICK HERE).

◄$$$ IRAN & RUSSIA REPLACED THE USDOLLAR IN MUTUAL TRADE. THE AMERICAN STRONGARM TACTICS ARE MEETING WITH STERN RESISTANCE, AS THE BACKLASH GATHERS MOMENTUM AND INTENSITY. IRAN COULD BECOME A BROKEN PLANK IN THE AMERICAN FINANCIAL HEGEMONY. $$$

Iran and Russia have replaced the USDollar with their own native
currencies, thus solidifying trade ties. Tehran's Ambassador to Moscow Seyed Reza Sajjadi claimed that the proposal for replacing USDollar with Ruble and Rial was raised by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in in Astana Kazakhstan during a sidelines meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting. He added that many Iranian entities are using Ruble currency for their trade deals. The Kremlin leaders stand against unilateral sanctions on Iran conducted outside the UN Security Council, their position in diplomatic circles, which WashingtonDC avoids. The USGovt has a long track record of making unilateral decisions, and attempting to impose sanctions on third party nations, all done without the blessing of global governing bodies. The Russians have announced that they will not accept broad sanctions. The central bank in Iran is working feverishly to circumvent and overcome any isolation and income cutoff. The sanctions directed by the USGovt punish foreign firms that do business with the central bank in Tehran, and cut them off from the US financial system. Many even in the West believe that the move would prove futile. Most Iranian oil sales are processed by the central bank. The means to avoid the sanctions is to conduct trade settlement outside the USDollar, where the USFed would not act as processor. The peripheral impact is felt with intermediary entities such as Turkey's Halk Bank, which will likely choose to step aside and not risk being stepped on by American jack boots bearing London brand. Halk Bank has been instrumental in assisting India, which received 11% of its crude imports from Iran last year.

In an end-around maneuver, the grand subcontinent is exploring the option of making payments for crude oil purchases through the giant Russian Gazprombank. No deal has yet been reached, but it is close to final. Recall that Russia has abstained from sanctioning Iran. See the Bloomberg article (CLICK HERE).

During the last two years, Iran has been replacing the USDollar with other currencies in its trade with the rest of the world. Iran has replaced the USDollar in its oil trade with India, China, and Japan. Late in November, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) granted the necessary permission to the Central Bank of Iran to open Rupee accounts with two major Indian banks, seen as a solution final to the payment problems. The banks are UCO and IDBI. While payments for Indian oil imports would initially be in Rupees, they would be converted into a separate currency, which was yet to be decided by the Apex bank. Conclude that USGovt sanctions provide the fertilizer for developing a seedbed in non-US$ trade settlement. The next few months will demonstrate any flourishment. See the Zero Hedge article (CLICK HERE).

That might not be a bad trade. The 5 minute looks a little toppy at 1.2970 and it seems Asia likes to take stuff in the opposite dirction most of the time.

I'd like to see Asia carry on with a risk on rally instead of this one sided with just an euro rally, dump dollar and yen which happened today. Todays euro rally put a lot of pressure on my AUD & NZD cross pairs.

Even though I did well in the E$ and anything I bought the Euro against or sold the Yen against, other what I typically trade as risk on trades went backwards so I spent all day going nowhere or backwards... Kinda the story of my life trading this month.

2 critical line need to break before euro to test this year high....!!! Fail to break both of line risk to downward!!!

The defections and revolt are growing louder and bolder in the revolt against the USDollar. The sequence is historic, significant, unmistakable, and dangerous. One unintended consequence of Quantitative Easing had been to invite several countries to seek a replacement of the USDollar as their settlement currency for international deals. Their food and energy costs were deeply affected, harming their economies. A criterion for Settlement Currency is one that is stable, internationally trusted, widely accepted, and in plentiful supply. Many nations led by China have been seeking support for an alternative to challenge the USDollar, since the USGovt has been practicing extreme pressure filled tactics for years. Just keep in mind that in 2005 and 2006, when the South Koreans announced a desire to diversify away from USTBonds in reserves management, the USMilitary conducted exercises off their coast.

The other side is bank sanctions, which is happening in recent months vis-a-vis trade with rogue Iran. The list of countries that trades no longer using the USDollar exclusively for settlement is growing. The world is at a tipping point for change, both economically and politically. A Paradigm Shift is in progress.

Consider a scorecard. China, India, Russia, and Iran all own large hoards of physical gold. Two are large oil producers. Two are economies on growth paths with expanding middle classes. None are firm allies of the United States, the poster boy nation in gold opposition. Look for the USDollar to be seen on milk cartons before too many months. All these nations have criticized the USGovt for its uncontrollable debts and expressed objections over its wantom monetary printing. The stand-off with Iran in the Straits of Hormuz has a hidden component in the potential to replace the USDollar in crude oil sales and beyond. The bank center sanctions serve as a response to the threat to the US financial sector. The warning shots are directed at China, Russia, Japan, and India, as much as Iran. The USGovt is testing the Chinese resolve and backbone, as it challenges the solidarity of the network of bilateral currency settlement agreements begun by China. Such accords extend to Brazil as well, as the anti-US$ revolt moving apace in its fourth year. Witness military power deployed to counter threats to economic power through the banking system fortress. David Malone expects the United States will lose, and so does the Jackass. The only question is the degree and depth of its loss, with direct reflection in a precipitated decline in the standing of the USDollar as global reserve currency.

Consider the stages. The first stage in decline is wider global usage of non-US$ currency in trade settlement. Clearly the most important commodity in trade is crude oil. The Saudis have been loyal subjects to the US & Anglo regimes, since military protection has been given for decades. The Saudi royals have been permitted to hold power, gain riches, and tuck them away in Swiss, London, and New York banks. The Iranians, although ripe with foreign bank holdings, are not part of the USMilitary protection scheme. They favor Russia and China. As trade is settled in other currencies, the banking systems for associated nations need not gather and harbor so many USTreasury Bonds. Payment would not be made in US$ terms, using USTBond as payment vehicles. What follows is an implicit avoidance of the USDollar, then a shun of it. The USEconomy would then be isolated and subject to powerful effects. If supplies cannot be purchased readily, then the US consumer will face greater shortages. If foreign currency must be bid upward to obtain supplies, then the US consumer will face higher prices.

Imagine the US corporations bidding up foreign currency in order to purchase crude oil, and a raft of other commodities like copper and coffee, even finished products. The extreme kicker is purchase by US distributors of Chinese made finished products, payment to be made in Chinese Yuan currency. The US firms would have to bid up the Yuan, and in doing so, would drive down the USDollar exchange rate. Prices of imports would rise. But at the same time, Chinese suppliers would tend to go out of business, from lost profitability to the marginal firms, thus cutting off supply lines to the USEconomy. What irony! So trade settlement is the open gate to supply shortage and price inflation.

Some decent articles Kno,

That the USD will be replace sooner or later is a near certainty. Nobody wants to leave the power it gives the US in US hands with the exception of the US and even they seem to have mixed feelings.

However this process will be slow (ie 20 years to completion) and began some time before with the introduction of the Euro.

The Chinese have mixed feelings about releasing their currency to the world and I expect the process to be slow. A freely traded currency is a mixed blessing. Volatility is such that the market movement of a few months can turn a profitable business into an unprofitable business. Further, the Chinese hate putting resources vital to their welbeing (ie their money) in the hands of foreigners.

Thank you sir. I spend most of my time here trying to learn from more experienced people. Thanks to all for your experiences and teachings. Perhaps I will be able to contribute on a regular basis one day. Here is EURJPY...

CJ

Thank you for posting the chart. There is correlation between these two pairs. The third pair can affect the second pair at times. That then leads to movements in EUR/USD. The third pair is USD/JPY.

About two weeks ago I posted a video by EWI and I personally found it funny as their technician was comparing the two charts of EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and pointing out they moved together and that was confirmation of the Elliot wave call on EUR/USD.

Duh.... Really... Now everyone knows it and if you do not agree watch them move together up or down. Note: The correlation is not always 100% or immediate at all times. Post here any time you feel like it and questions are good since they help us all to learn.

The best that I can hope for here is to learn from the Masters while contributing as a student. Here is the 3rd chart to complete the trio. Correlation looks to be close to 100% this time around.

CJ

If I close her down now, I'll have enough for a case of beer........You ready to head to the hills for a cold one?

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors

Enjoy when you want something to read...

Very quiet in Asia and first action will start perhaps near 1:00 AM EST or 6:00 GMT + 5

Watch to see if the retail traders can push EUR/USD up to 1.3000 and see if EUR/JPY goes along. There should be no new news out until maybe 2:00 or about one hour before Europe open. Watch how EUR/USD behaves between 2:00 AM EST and 3:00 AM EST...

Then news from papers, comments overnight and the CAC, DAX and FTSE opens. Then watch the money flows between the currencies and markets. See where Gold id trading and look at Dow Futures.

Keep in mind that Friday is an unusual trading day and Europe closes positions or should by NOON or 12:00 PM EST.

Watch talks in Greece. Around 7:00 AM EST watch this same process in North America. Look at Data at 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM and Option Expiry at 10:00 AM

See where Gold is and Oil and Dow Futures and IMPORTANT to check the Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds.

Watch to see if any news comes out at 8:30 AM or 10:00 AM that changes the momentum of the Dow. Watch for Risk on or Risk off.

That should keep you busy. Try to make this your routine so it comes second nature. If you see a BIG Drop or Spike try to find out why ? You can watch Oanda FX News and see news coming out by the minute.

That's about it for now and I am going to bed. I was up near 5:00 AM and I have put in my 16 hours for today. I hope to be back near 2:00 AM EST.... See You Then...

WooHoo..... Road trip.... You can't miss me, I look like I could be Popcorn Sutton's younger brother.

If I close out my IBFX micro mini account I'll have enough to fill the 35 gallon fuel tank on my dually with diesel and grab some snacks...... But it wouldn't be enough left over to even tickle my 92 gallon auxiliary fuel tank


I've been sitting here adjusting my portfolio to go back to supply and demand for entry and SL and using S&D levels, fast trix and the Ichimoku cloud for exit.

Lol,

My brain numbingly simple strategy is to go out, find a trend, check and see if you have any of the classic trend reversal patterns. If not, then I take opportune with trend trades targeting the last extreme. I particularly like with trend trades that are right on a major S/R or a major trendline. I also like to leap on weakness of any kind.

In honor of my avatar and in honor of the IQ you need to have to take these trades, I call it Monkey Trading.

hey thanks this is what I search, can you tell me where to find same scheme picture for asia?