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Fail Better

  • #2,361
  • Jan 19, 2012 2:14pm Jan 19, 2012 2:14pm
Quoting the_wizard
Oh and one final thing ; if I hear another trader say "I don't trade USDJPY because it doesn't move much" I will bang my head against my desk until I knock myself unconscious.

If you are still counting in pips rather than R multip-les you have a LONG way to go in this game.
Oopsie!
  • #2,362
  • Jan 19, 2012 2:36pm Jan 19, 2012 2:36pm
Quoting the_wizard
You've just made my day!
Thanks Tom . means a Lot to me. never thought I will make it to this level.

another One I am watching
http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-20.30.19.png

regarding the USDJPY volatility I remember making that comment too .Thanks for reminding me the R:R . Shows I still have lots to learn from you.

Looking forward to more tweets and Posts from you.
  • #2,363
  • Jan 19, 2012 3:05pm Jan 19, 2012 3:05pm
Quoting surferking
Complete tangent but I love this programme. I know it's old but goes to show how the pros trade actual numbers (levels):

Billion Dollar Day
brilliant bit of tv surferking i ain't seen it before
quinny
  • #2,364
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:00pm Jan 19, 2012 4:00pm
Quoting the_wizard
USD/JPY D1 chart.

Price trades into the double bottom and breaks it intraday, catching the stops from traders that ;

- sell the breakout
- bought the "double bottom" and held for a longer move with stops below support

Now ; price creates a D1 SFP (also a pin bar one can note).

Shorts are now on the back foot.

I'm coming down to the H1 to find my entry.

Remember : I want in at THE SOURCE.

I'm not buying the break of a pin with a stop on the other side.

Why???

The pin bar / SFP high is not a turning point.

[b]That's...

Saw that one coming . . .excellent post.

Thanks again, Tom.


Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #2,365
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:21pm Jan 19, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting the_wizard
However, SFP's at single swing points don't particularly interest me. In fact, most of the SFP's I see, don't interest me.
Cheers - I think I'm getting it.

My trading stats for this year are all based on Rounded Retest trades AT 'brick wall' levels (weekly/monthly highs lows) so I'm sticking with that.

Just got to avoid the temptation to try to find trades at every single level I have on my charts!! That's the thing about a good run, it makes me over-confident.

I've been placing some trades weeks in advance and completely forgetting about them and they seem to have triggered and taken profit in between the times I look at the charts.
  • #2,366
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:35pm Jan 19, 2012 4:35pm
Rounded Retest on Google anyone?
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  • #2,367
  • Jan 19, 2012 6:39pm Jan 19, 2012 6:39pm
Quoting the_wizard
USD/JPY H1 chart.

Check the circled area.

That was my entry.

So ; D1 for bias.

H1 for entry at the PULLBACK into S/R (note the resistance last too) and 61% fib level.

Target was the 77.03's (upper orange line)

Now here is the million dollar question.

Why did I not get out at the blue FTA?

The answer is simple ; we had D1 bias. So we run it.

You don't exit at an H1 FTA when you have D1 bias, you exit at a D1 FTA.

Now, if you don't have D1 bias and you just enter off an excellent H1 area, then you DO use the H1 FTA.

I hope this...
Hi Tom,
Out of curiosity at what point would you have bailed on this trade? 1H close below the level? I noticed it came close to entry a couple of times before the move up and I am sure you had an exit plan in mind.
  • #2,368
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:29pm Jan 19, 2012 7:29pm
Watching GU for a short, 1.5572
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  • #2,369
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:00am Jan 20, 2012 3:00am
Bullish SFP on the Weekly GU . . .nice . . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #2,370
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:09am Jan 20, 2012 3:09am
Quoting jarroo
Bullish SFP on the Weekly GU . . .nice . . .
Yes, but last time there was one on your Weekly GU chart in April 2011 it didn't work out at all. I think a lot of people are bearish GU at the mo.

Could be a sucker rally this week to draw people in and then tank next week. Guess my comment is timestamped now - be interesting to see if I'm right.
  • #2,371
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:21am Jan 20, 2012 3:21am
Quoting surferking
Yes, but last time there was one on your Weekly GU chart in April 2011 it didn't work out at all. I think a lot of people are bearish GU at the mo.

Could be a sucker rally this week to draw people in and then tank next week. Guess my comment is timestamped now - be interesting to see if I'm right.
Not sure where in April 2011 you are looking at . .this area in green? . .chart .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #2,372
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:27am Jan 20, 2012 3:27am
Quoting jarroo
Not sure where in April 2011 you are looking at . .this area in green? . .chart .
Look at all the areas in Red where it doesn't work our for the Weekly charts.

I'd say it's a good signal for bias but you need confluence or to drill down to D1 and H1 for better entries and exits otherwise you have some very wide stops for a 50/50 bet.
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  • #2,373
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:40am Jan 20, 2012 3:40am
Quoting surferking
Look at all the areas in Red where it doesn't work our for the Weekly charts.

I'd say it's a good signal for bias but you need confluence or to drill down to D1 and H1 for better entries and exits otherwise you have some very wide stops for a 50/50 bet.
I agree surferking . .good bias and lower TF entry.

Some of these worked . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #2,374
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:49am Jan 20, 2012 3:49am
Here is my view for EU....Long entry at 1.2878 (Demo account)
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Patience is essential
  • #2,375
  • Jan 20, 2012 3:58am Jan 20, 2012 3:58am
Hey guys,
I have been reading this thread for the past few weeks and love it. It has changed the way I look at markets and hope to begin trading live soon. For now I am in the demo stage.

I have read the entire forum however I am still trying to figure out how to use the 1hr SFP as bias? I know that I can take a position from the 1hr by entering at the open of the next bar with a limit at the FTA and a stop at the first close above/below the high/low. I have read many times that it is best to use 1hr SFP's for bias but how do I take advantage of that bias? I understand that on a daily or weekly that we should drop down to lower time frames to find an entry however, I am not sure that would be the case on anything under 1hr.

This may have been covered already and I just missed it. Thanks for your advice guys
  • #2,376
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:06am Jan 20, 2012 4:06am
Quoting benem
Here is my view for EU....Long entry at 1.2878 (Demo account)
I like this trade a lot - best thing is set and forget. I've got my order in and just leave it to do its thing.

By far the highest strike rate strategy I've ever seen these rounded re-tests
  • #2,377
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:08am Jan 20, 2012 4:08am
Quoting surferking
Yes, but last time there was one on your Weekly GU chart in April 2011 it didn't work out at all.
Which one are you referring too?
  • #2,378
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:08am Jan 20, 2012 4:08am
Quoting bullishbias
Hey guys,
I have been reading this thread for the past few weeks and love it. It has changed the way I look at markets and hope to begin trading live soon. For now I am in the demo stage.

I have read the entire forum however I am still trying to figure out how to use the 1hr SFP as bias? I know that I can take a position from the 1hr by entering at the open of the next bar with a limit at the FTA and a stop at the first close above/below the high/low. I have read many times that it is best to use 1hr SFP's for bias but how do I take advantage...
I don't think you can use H1 for Bias unless you're trading the M5 timeframe!

Use D1 chart (SFPs, Pin Bars, Outside Bars) for Bias and H1 for entry at the strongest possible levels, simples
  • #2,379
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:09am Jan 20, 2012 4:09am
Quoting surferking
Look at all the areas in Red where it doesn't work our for the Weekly charts.

I'd say it's a good signal for bias but you need confluence or to drill down to D1 and H1 for better entries and exits otherwise you have some very wide stops for a 50/50 bet.
That's what we show in the webinars.
  • #2,380
  • Jan 20, 2012 4:11am Jan 20, 2012 4:11am
Quoting the_wizard
Which one are you referring too?
The red areas.

Ultimately W1 is just a compression of D1 chart anyway so probably better to drill down to that to see how price is approaching thee levels I guess.
Attached Image
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