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Fail Better

  • #2,321
  • Jan 19, 2012 3:29am Jan 19, 2012 3:29am
Here it is


http://www.screencast.com/users/Trad...d-d932135ef0fe
  • #2,322
  • Jan 19, 2012 4:50am Jan 19, 2012 4:50am
Quoting BadgerMatt
Reasonably early on in this thread (i.e. first 30ish pages) wizard has posted a link to a video which gives the clearest explanation you will get. I suggest you search for that.

Thanks. I will look at it
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #2,323
  • Jan 19, 2012 8:08am Jan 19, 2012 8:08am
Hello All,

Does this one qualify as a valid swing failure point
(ignoring the hindsight glasses)

thanks,
Jim
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SFP2.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #2,324
  • Jan 19, 2012 8:57am Jan 19, 2012 8:57am
looking for the reaction on top red line. (will see when the price gets there.)
also the break and retest of the 61% Fib.

PLAN | WAIT | ATTACK

Had my best day of 2012 today.

Thanks Tom Wizard you have really transformed my trading.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-14.55.36.png
  • #2,325
  • Jan 19, 2012 8:58am Jan 19, 2012 8:58am
Quoting JimN
Hello All,

Does this one qualify as a valid swing failure point
(ignoring the hindsight glasses)

thanks,
JimAttachment
switch to H4 and then see it
  • #2,326
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:03am Jan 19, 2012 9:03am
Quoting JimN
Hello All,

Does this one qualify as a valid swing failure point
(ignoring the hindsight glasses)

thanks,
JimAttachment
Hi Jim,

This wouldn't qualify as an SFP on the hourly chart, as the bar marked 1 closed above the highs. We want to see the highs broken, but then for price to close back below that level within the same bar (or above if looking for longs off support). See the bar I've marked as 2 on my chart, which shows an SFP from yesterday, where the trigger bar pierced the lows and then closed above them.

Gold did however produce a nice SFP off your level on the H4 chart

Best,
Chris
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 1h 190112.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #2,327
  • Jan 19, 2012 9:16am Jan 19, 2012 9:16am
Assault Planned EURUSD

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-15.17.21.png

Keep the Blue FTA in Mind when taking long off the fib level.

I sold the touch on The trend line. worked like a treat.
  • #2,328
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:34am Jan 19, 2012 10:34am
Looks like I've been stitched up on taking the SFP on the SP500 today.

Is it my imagination is is none posting their trades that don't work out as well?
Attached Image
  • #2,329
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:41am Jan 19, 2012 10:41am
Quoting surferking
Looks like I've been stitched up on taking the SFP on the SP500 today.

Is it my imagination is is none posting their trades that don't work out as well?
Same thing on Silver today as well, although luckily I missed it otherwise I'd have been completely done over.

Wizard Tom - can you review my levels and go over drawing stronger levels (how many touches o each side etc) on here or in the webinars? I think I'm missing something. Ta.
Attached Image
  • #2,330
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:54am Jan 19, 2012 10:54am
watching these levels. USDJPY.

Its dead hour so be careful trading between 5-10 ish.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...2-16.54.18.png
  • #2,331
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:58am Jan 19, 2012 10:58am
I don't mean to be a pain in the what'sit but here's another SFP (swing fail?) that didn't work out.

It looks to me that actually it is the inside bars and outside bars that are the pattern to look for, can you cover how you treat Inside Bars and Outside Bars at levels in the webinars too? Thanks.

PS count me in for Sunday's charity one if you have time to cover it in there?
Attached Image
  • #2,332
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:04am Jan 19, 2012 11:04am
I have only taken 1 today - and it is has been struggling..although 20 pips made

Perhaps a good place to look more favourably for a tradeable sfp set up is once the ave daily range is reached and breached..

although its hard to filter everything..and then end up never actually taking a trade..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad_sfp190112.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #2,333
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:04am Jan 19, 2012 11:04am
surfer. I don't want to sound critical but I wouldn't take any of them personally.
There are much much better ones out there.

Tom covered some good ones in webinar. may be it will be in next webinar.
  • #2,334
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:09am Jan 19, 2012 11:09am
Quoting surferking
Same thing on Silver today as well, although luckily I missed it otherwise I'd have been completely done over.

Wizard Tom - can you review my levels and go over drawing stronger levels (how many touches o each side etc) on here or in the webinars? I think I'm missing something. Ta.
OK, one more - and I was sure this was 2 strong levels but it didn't work out 3 times in a row!!!!

It looks to me like a series of inside bars where pins poke out on either side, but only when there is a CLOSE outside of the mother bar does the market commit to a direction.
Attached Image
  • #2,335
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:10am Jan 19, 2012 11:10am
I noticed quite a few failed SFPs this week incl. DAX weekly SFP. However, if you have a look at D1 chart of US$ index you'll see it is bouncing off a resistance (previous support + 1st time back) & printed a D1 SFP couple days ago - hence it's not the best idea to be shorting stocks when $ is falling. Imho.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx.jpg Size: 63 KB
  • #2,336
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:17am Jan 19, 2012 11:17am
Quoting 96flavors
I noticed quite a few failed SFPs this week incl. DAX weekly SFP. However, if you have a look at D1 chart of US$ index you'll see it is bouncing off a resistance (previous support + 1st time back) & printed a D1 SFP couple days ago - hence it's not the best idea to be shorting stocks when $ is falling. Imho.

Attachment
I now have my screens setup to ALWAYS have SP500 as the first panel. (See attached)

I now only look for what the S&P is doing before picking the best pair to find an edge on. Worked out really well doing this last week on Cable and I was hoping to pull off the same result on EURUSD today but as you'll see I'm stuck in a drawdown on the SP itself and EU.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,337
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:19am Jan 19, 2012 11:19am
Quoting trader8080
surfer. I don't want to sound critical but I wouldn't take any of them personally.
There are much much better ones out there.

Tom covered some good ones in webinar. may be it will be in next webinar.
Cheers - just a bit sceptical. Think I need to get fussier too! Cheers
  • #2,338
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:26am Jan 19, 2012 11:26am
Quoting 96flavors
I noticed quite a few failed SFPs this week incl. DAX weekly SFP. However, if you have a look at D1 chart of US$ index you'll see it is bouncing off a resistance (previous support + 1st time back) & printed a D1 SFP couple days ago - hence it's not the best idea to be shorting stocks when $ is falling. Imho.

Attachment
Thanks - I'm using the SP500 for direction bias on all USD pairs now, seems to work well.

Just need to understand Gold/Oil/Gas/Risk correlations biases really so I'm watching those o the same screen as well to see how they correlate.

I bookmarked this really useful link from someone on one of the webinars on currency pairs correlations if anyone is interested:

http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-01-19 at 17.26.20.jpg Size: 208 KB
  • #2,339
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:43am Jan 19, 2012 11:43am
Quoting surferking
Cheers - just a bit sceptical. Think I need to get fussier too! Cheers
yes be selective and if you don't feel right walk away from trade.

there use to be a time when I use to enter a trade 10 pip away from where I plan a trade. just so that "I do not miss" this golden opportunity.

Now I stick to my levels not move my entry more than 2 pips.
  • #2,340
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:47am Jan 19, 2012 11:47am
Quoting surferking
I bookmarked this really useful link from someone on one of the webinars on currency pairs correlations if anyone is interested:

http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation
Note the high correlations between USDCHF and EURUSD and opposing correlation between GBPUSD and USDAUD. Of course AUD and NZD is pretty obvious.

I know Tom doesn't trade the crosses but was always of the belief to trade the strongest currency against the weakest. Here's another very handy tool for doing that too:

http://www.fxtsp.com/tools/relative-strength-index.html
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