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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #20,121
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:17am Jan 19, 2012 10:17am
Quoting rekon67
Crude-oil futures added to gains Thursday after a weekly government supply report showed a surprise inventory decrease. Oil for February delivery CL2G +0.61% added 88 cents, or 0.9%, to $101.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange; it had added 71 cents before the report. The Energy Information Administration reported a decline of 3.4 million barrels i n crude supplies in the week ended Jan. 13. Analysts polled by Platts had expected an increase of 2.6 million barrels. The EIA also reported gasoline supplies up 3.7 million barrels,...
Moral of the Story: Nothing happened channel is still valid!

Now I log-Off!
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  • #20,122
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:17am Jan 19, 2012 10:17am
Quoting rekon67
If I am not wrong ... yesterday when you took sell entry at 1.2842 ... the divergence was showing trend is Up, and also had a Up cross for long ... instead of that you took a counter and though 1.2850 would be good as SL..... any further comment on that particular trade?
THV is a system I use for position trades and scalps. If daily shows up trend, divergence is not confirmed until as explained in rules.
As far as counter trend scalps may show overbought/oversold on 1m and 5m or paint divergence. some of these scalps become position trades if higher time frames agree. If not then exit from scalp on lower time frame. Trade may be 2 minutes, 5minutes 1 hour, or 3 weeks. I am hybrid trader, scalp and try to hold position for a position if entry is small position, take profit on large position. Win %= 82.8% per trade explorer.
Any more questions????
  • #20,123
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:29am Jan 19, 2012 10:29am
Quoting rekon67
Moral of the Story: Nothing happened channel is still valid!

Now I log-Off!
If you draw enough channels, you will eventually find one that is valid on a small time frame!
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  • #20,124
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:34am Jan 19, 2012 10:34am
Quoting rekon67
Look Orange Juice Index just got higher with + 0.1 ....
and Curry Chicken Index Just Going Down
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #20,125
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:37am Jan 19, 2012 10:37am
Quoting Cgb
For breakfast???
For Sex Event
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #20,126
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:37am Jan 19, 2012 10:37am
Quoting AaronWard
Don't smoke and trade.

"hehehehehe... hawhawhaw haw... aint that funny... that little red bar keeps going down, down, down...hehehe... oh look I got mail...uh what does margin call mean?"
huhuhohohohehehihihi
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #20,127
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:50am Jan 19, 2012 10:50am
Quoting Gofer Pips
THV is a system I use for position trades and scalps. If daily shows up trend, divergence is not confirmed until as explained in rules.
As far as counter trend scalps may show overbought/oversold on 1m and 5m or paint divergence. some of these scalps become position trades if higher time frames agree. If not then exit from scalp on lower time frame. Trade may be 2 minutes, 5minutes 1 hour, or 3 weeks. I am hybrid trader, scalp and try to hold position for a position if entry is small position, take profit on large position. Win %= 82.8% per trade...
Gofer is a great trader. Much like the Fool or Goldman. when I am on the opposite side of a trade, I am usually giving them my lunch money.

PT not so much. He is ultra cautious and only shorts the Euro (like me). So when I am in a losing trade he is eating popcorn.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #20,128
  • Jan 19, 2012 10:51am Jan 19, 2012 10:51am
i very confident this is eur yen intervention
Bismillah
  • #20,129
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:00am Jan 19, 2012 11:00am
Moment of truth. If this collapses in upon itself, then back down to 1.260 we go. If not, then the much higher TF correction is on.

I am a bit conflicted. I want a higher TF correction because a) I can then stop worrying about it and b) then I can hit it with much larger account with a feeling of safety. I would like it to go down because I have a short that is now underwater.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #20,130
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:01am Jan 19, 2012 11:01am
Quoting AaronWard
Moment of truth. If this collapses in upon itself, then back down to 1.260 we go. If not, then the much higher TF correction is on.

I am a bit conflicted. I want a higher TF correction because a) I can then stop worrying about it and b) then I can hit it with much larger account with a feeling of safety. I would like it to go down because I have a short that is now underwater.
Don't cry. If it were me, I would keep the short anyway coz that's where it's going eventually anyway. Just short again when it hits the top. In the mean time, scalp the long.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,131
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:06am Jan 19, 2012 11:06am
Approaching the falling channel resistance which coincides with my HolyGrail 89 period SMMA on typical price moving average on the H4 chart. It looks like it will be 1.2950 as stated earlier today.

Let's see if this is the top. It should certainly provoke a retrace as I am 100% sure there will be some significant offers in the area.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,132
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:08am Jan 19, 2012 11:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
Approaching the falling channel resistance which coincides with my HolyGrail 89 period SMMA on typical price moving average on the H4 chart. It looks like it will be 1.2950 as stated earlier today.

Let's see if this is the top. It should certainly provoke a retrace as I am 100% sure there will be some significant offers in the area.

Attachment
look at that...

EUR/USD Munching Through Orders
By Adam Button || January 19, 2012 at 16:49 GMT

- EUR/USD at a session high, 1.2933.
- Strong offers seen at 1.2945/50, more stops above.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,133
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:09am Jan 19, 2012 11:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
Don't cry. If it were me, I would keep the short anyway coz that's where it's going eventually anyway. Just short again when it hits the top. In the mean time, scalp the long.
way too high to think about going long. If I had a time machine I would go back and scalp it though

As I said, I have been worrying about a higher TF correction so I have been using reduced lot size. That way I can survive whatever the market throws at me and then hit it hard when the price is right.

My guess is that this was just a spike and it markets the top of this correction. The underlying diriver seems to be some sort of Yen event and so has absolutely nothing to do with anything in the US or Euroland.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #20,134
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:11am Jan 19, 2012 11:11am
Quoting AaronWard
way to long already. If I had a time machine I would go back and scalp it though

As I said, I have been worrying about a higher TF correction so I have been using reduced lot size. That way I can survive whatever the market throws at me and then hit it hard when the price is right.

My guess is that this was just a spike and it markets the top of this correction. The underlying diriver seems to be some sort of Yen event and so has absolutely nothing to do with anything in the US or Euroland.
We may almost be there. Watch the 1.2950 area closely for a possible short opp.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,135
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:30am Jan 19, 2012 11:30am
Closed all the long, best to sit back now, maybe tomorrow gives some good shorting opportunity.
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  • #20,136
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:41am Jan 19, 2012 11:41am
Quoting GoldMan.
Closed all the long, best to sit back now, maybe tomorrow gives some good shorting opportunity.
Good call
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #20,137
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:54am Jan 19, 2012 11:54am
Quoting Gofer Pips
THV is a system I use for position trades and scalps. If daily shows up trend, divergence is not confirmed until as explained in rules.
As far as counter trend scalps may show overbought/oversold on 1m and 5m or paint divergence. some of these scalps become position trades if higher time frames agree. If not then exit from scalp on lower time frame. Trade may be 2 minutes, 5minutes 1 hour, or 3 weeks. I am hybrid trader, scalp and try to hold position for a position if entry is small position, take profit on large position. Win %= 82.8% per trade...
Thx Gofer ... excellent answer and conveys the mindset of a matured trader how he interprets challenging situations ... purpose of my question fulfilled .. with time will do more questions and know will get answers to bookmark
  • #20,138
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:55am Jan 19, 2012 11:55am
hello we are short ... cot index report is short and net positions of large traders are short ....
  • #20,139
  • Jan 19, 2012 11:56am Jan 19, 2012 11:56am
Quoting Gofer Pips
If you draw enough channels, you will eventually find one that is valid on a small time frame!
Ah.. M15 TF with Raff channels 20, 50, 100 and 200 is a Bomb ... price did traveled 1.2939 ..still more upside left..
  • #20,140
  • Jan 19, 2012 12:03pm Jan 19, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Love your charts. Nice and clean.
Correct me if I'm wrong but the THV system depends mostly on divergence. Is that correct? If so, I have to say that lately the divergence signal has been more wrong than right on higher time frames... at least this is what I have noticed from my MacD(12,24,9) indicator. Perhaps the THV uses different periods than mine. Anyway, with this correction we're seeing, as long as it continues, it means that the signal is working well this time All we can do is hope I guess.
I use only parts of the THV3 system like the fast trix and/or Ichimoku cloud to try to determine if momentum is changing. I've been trying some other stuff but I'm primarily a supply and demand trader and when a strong zone and divergence come together it can make for some nice trades. Even when divergence isn't working right in a strong trend I think it's a clue to the weakening of the trend.

I'm pretty much done testing stuff for now and am going back to S&D with a little momentum.
I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
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