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  • #585,781
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:33am Jan 19, 2012 7:33am
good US data..Yeah...risk asset sentiment is now on play...
  • #585,782
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:35am Jan 19, 2012 7:35am
It would probably be a spike to 3040, but the 23.6 fibonacci retracement of the entire move from 4247 to 2630 is at 3005,

For the most part I dont believe this up move has anything to do with much economic news, because overall we are heading for 2200 and 2000 levels

But the big banks like round numbers with 3 digits such as 3000, 4000, 2000.

I think what happened was that last year the decision was made to drop EUR down to the mentioned levels, and it accelerated faster than expected, so few banks decided that they would not make that much money going down from 2600 to 2000, because everybody is expecting it.

So to make more money you always setup people

UBS few weeks ago told everybody to set their stoploss at 3000 and aim for 2200. So everybody did that I guess,

Now that the stoplosses are in place, to make more money few banks get together and decide to go to that level to just clear all the stoplosses.

Once they do that, everybody thinking that it will go to 3500,

then the banks decide to reverse and go to 2000-2200.

Its all a setup game.

At 3970 on October 28th the banks were not happy that it didnt hit a round number such as 4000, so again they played the same game, not only did they hit 4000, but went beyond it to 4247 for no reason, and then reversed.

The traders collected their year end christmas bounuses and couldnt care anymore, because the game plan was from december onwards to drop the EUR. So EUR dropped again from that level.

I mean if you put yourself in the bank's position, it would be the most logical thing that you can do.

Why drop from 2600 to 2200.

They know where all the stoplosses are placed, so pump more money to get there, have people loose, and the loosing money goes to brokers and banks. Now the banks have more money and then and only then they go with the real plan.

Quoting antgal23
@Kampooj

if it breaks 1.2940 with a close above it, then we could see 1.3040 for sure, but the USD index has support 70 points away so 1.2980 could come into play
  • #585,783
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:36am Jan 19, 2012 7:36am
fu** me..even relatively good news from us doesn't affect the price much
  • #585,784
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:37am Jan 19, 2012 7:37am
Quoting zathan
fu** me..even relatively good news from us doesn't affect the price much
it will be my pleasure
Trade responsiblypatience is the key/Swing trader
  • #585,785
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:37am Jan 19, 2012 7:37am
brother i like your analysis.....

Quoting Kambooj
It would probably be a spike to 3040, but the 23.6 fibonacci retracement of the entire move from 4247 to 2630 is at 3005,

For the most part I dont believe this up move has anything to do with much economic news, because overall we are heading for 2200 and 2000 levels

But the big banks like round numbers with 3 digits such as 3000, 4000, 2000.

I think what happened was that last year the decision was made to drop EUR down to the mentioned levels, and it accelerated faster than expected, so few banks decided that they would not make that...
  • #585,786
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:37am Jan 19, 2012 7:37am
Quoting mercy seat
Short entries at 1.2910 and 1.2914 executed ...

Time 14h06 CET + 14h01 CET ...



;-|
Partials at figure ...

Time 14h31 CET ...




;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #585,787
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:38am Jan 19, 2012 7:38am
Quoting Incrediblle
it will be my pleasure
Mr. Incredible...no vaseline, no shag
  • #585,788
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:39am Jan 19, 2012 7:39am
Quoting tankokjian
brother i like your analysis.....
most analyst dont make money.......so it does not matter how good one analysis market.

taking right decision is foremost important.
Trade responsiblypatience is the key/Swing trader
  • #585,789
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:39am Jan 19, 2012 7:39am
Quoting Kambooj
...But the big banks like round numbers with 3 digits such as 3000, 4000, 2000...
Yes, you make the most money if you focus on round numbers. Thats very well known strategy.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #585,790
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:40am Jan 19, 2012 7:40am
good USA unemployment news and still euro is flying upwards..
  • #585,791
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:42am Jan 19, 2012 7:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yes, you make the most money if you focus on round numbers. Thats very well known strategy.

T
Explain please?
  • #585,792
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:42am Jan 19, 2012 7:42am
Quoting Motion
Long 2825. SL 2795 TP 2885 2925
Quoting Motion
TP 2885 filled.
TP 2925 filled.

On to the next batch. 2934. Short spot.
Don't just beat the markets, leave bruises.
  • #585,793
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:43am Jan 19, 2012 7:43am
Attached Image
Attached Image
I like to sell
study of behavior and mind,conscious and unconscious
  • #585,794
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:43am Jan 19, 2012 7:43am
Quoting dean1star
perfect summary
knew that is coming..u have tickled my ego and because of overconfidence I've lost money..
  • #585,795
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:43am Jan 19, 2012 7:43am
Quoting fxkiller
Everybody here is wondering why euro is climbing up and up.

So here what you guys need to know:

Many reasons to sell the euro, sure! Bad news, trend, Weakness of euro etc. Thats why. Currently 70-80% of traders are selling the euro. Lots of them with also many big lots.

Now just imagine, if the euro will fall. It would easily go to 26xx-25xx if the market were not manipulated! This 80% of traders will make huge wins (included you all). And this is exactly what the Markets want to avoid. Every time when we have clear weakness...
Donīt ask! LEARN!
  • #585,796
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:44am Jan 19, 2012 7:44am
Quoting jackcheah
good USA unemployment news and still euro is flying upwards..
yes this would be because risk is on, investors see US stability and invest in higher yielding assets. ie, sell USD.
  • #585,797
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:45am Jan 19, 2012 7:45am
Quoting mercy seat
Partials at figure ...

Time 14h31 CET ...




;-|
Re-loaded short at 1.2920 ...

Time 14h38 CET ...




;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #585,798
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:45am Jan 19, 2012 7:45am
Quoting fxkiller

So what to do here? And how to win this mess?

1.Trade small and try to hedge as much as you can or simply avoid trading, still you see a big clear direction.
2. Work as much as you can with pending orders and not with live enteries.
3. Dont use 5 min chart for trading in this moves. Because it will give you lot of false signals, no matter which trading system or strategy.
4. Try to go with the lion side and not what your minds says!
This is a very good hint.

Ad1) Yea, you really should avoid trading.
Ad2) No trader would ever enter the market live. No way. Only pending orders are the way. Why would you want to react on PA?
Ad3) For sure there is only one timeframe you should be using regardless your strategy. Only Killer knows the right timeframe
Ad4) My weakling mind indeed doesnt have a clue what to do. I need your help mighty Killer.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #585,799
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:45am Jan 19, 2012 7:45am
I don't know about you guys, but this price action does not make me very confident to long. Although, I don't feel very confident with my currently open shorts either... Tonight could be painful.
  • #585,800
  • Jan 19, 2012 7:46am Jan 19, 2012 7:46am
Quoting cat
Explain please?
Post above is BS.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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