EurAnalysis

Which is it?

Every off-floor trader would like to get a feel for how things
really are on the exchange floor. Mastering Market Profile
may help you get it.

like my recent subject...huhu

uncertainty analysis...!!

Now .. by looking at the Gofer's Chart again I can find my Optimum area of a Sale Point ..

Do you believe Price has Magnet points and tend to get closer to those points?

Do you believe our life as well as Price follows pattern?

Do you believe we are so impatience to wait for the optimum?

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120119157706/

Snippet:

Euro extends recovery against other major currencies on report that Greece is close to a deal with private sector investor on debt swap. An unnamed official said that there could be an agreement by the end of this week. With the deal, private creditors would have the face value of their Greek bonds cut by as much as 50% through swapping existing bonds with ones with longer maturity and lower interest rates. That could help Greece secure loans from EU/IMF and get through the critical date of March 20, which it will face EUR 14.5 bond repayments. Another official also noted that Greece is still considering the so called collective action clause on its bonds if only a minority of bond holders disagree to the deal. Meanwhile, it's also reported that IMF approved its staff to official start discussion with Greece on an expanded bailout.

At this point, EUR/USD is still held by near term resistance at 1.2878 while EUR/AUD is also kept well below 1.2446, and thus, there is no indication of near term reversal yet. Though, EUR/JPY's breach of 98/80 resistance is taken as a sign of bottoming and we'll see if the EUR/JPY could lead other pairs higher.

Short term debt sales went well this week in spite of the massive S&P downgrade of Eurozone countries last week. But the real test is in longer term bond auctions. France bond auction will be a main focus today. S&P stripped France of its AAA rating last week and the impact investor confidence after the downgrade would be reflected in today's auction. France is set to sell a maximum of EUR 9.5b including up to EUR 8b of debt maturing in 2014, 2015 and 2016, as well as EUR 1.5b of index-linked bonds maturing in 2016, 2022, 2040. France will need to rise EUR 178b in medium- and long-term bonds this year. Also, Spain will sell a maximum of EUR 4.5b of bonds due in 2016, 2019 and 2022 after its credit rating was downgraded by S&P by two notches.

Kno's Comments:

Watch what EUR/JPY does because of correlation with EUR/USD. Here is their Technical view on that. What is yours ?

Snippet:

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 98.03; (P) 98.46; (R1) 99.23; More
EUR/JPY's break of 98.80 resistance suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 97.03 on bullish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside and stronger rebound could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 105.54 to 97.03 at 100.28. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 102.48 support turned resistance holds and recent decline is still expected to continue. On the downside, below 97.68 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 97.03 low first.

In the bigger picture, current fall from 123.31 is part of the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 and should target 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52. At this point, we'd anticipate strong support there to bring at least a rebound attempt, as it's close to 88.96 all time low as well as100% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 89.00. Though, a break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of reversal. Otherwise, we'll continue to stay bearish in the cross even in case of rebound.

Kno's Comments:

Here is where the Asset Classes are at the moment that I monitor;

EUR/USD 1.2883
EUR/JPY 98.85
USD/JPY 76.72

Gold at $1663.50 US Spot

Oil is up at $101.71 Spot and Europe is up slightly. The Dow futures are minus 3 now so things are quiet.

There is focus on Greece and there should be. I want to talk more about patterns and why they occur.

At 2:00 AM EST this morning One Hour before the Europe open EUR/USD traded at 1.2867

By 3:00 AM at the open it had dropped to 1.2838 the Low that I show on my FXCM UK platform.

That tells me retail traders are negative on EUR/USD and that is the opening pattern.

Now Europe opens and the MONEY FLOW starts to take over as the values on the Asset Classes that I watch change and move around.

From 3:00 AM to 4:00 AM EUR/USD rose in the opposite way to 1.2894 and then at 4:00 AM EST it moved down before making it's big move from 1.2864 to the High at 1.29094...

By 5:00 AM it was back down to 1.2868...

By 5:30 AM it spiked up to 1.2904 as we NOW are coming into the Retail Trader's in North America. I have seen my patterns for the moment which usually repeat each day although they may be different they have the same rhythm.

There is a valid logically answer to why this happens. Does anyone have an idea of what that is ?

I will have more to say later.


See Chart Below

One magnet to keep an eye on is the 1700 EST roll level

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post4576048

Thx..Swede ..instead of directing us to the other thread .. can you post a gist of the Action as "Your Note" I guess that would help a lot ... cheers

EUR/USD intraday: the upside prevails.Pivot: 1.2785.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.2795 with 1.288 & 1.291 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.2785 will open the way to 1.2755 & 1.2705.

Comment: the pair remains on the upside and is challenging its previous high.

If you talk about spike - it is spanish auction, which is doing better than expected. There is also a bunch of buy orders bit over 1.29 which are luring traders.

1.2930'ish there will be a slight turn... i believe.

High2908 Low2839 [email]Open2859.....if were not making new highs watch for the next obvious area...but trading within this zone...whole bunch of opportunities to make pips...patience patience patience

Watch 2904 & 2891...if it breaks 2904 wait if it breaks 2891 look for good entry

The bond is broke...waiting for next entry...

A cake walk is happening .. follow the PA touching each R one by one throughout the day (IMO )

it tend to folow ur distribution curve

Do you believe trading is Simple ?

Yes,I Do

Do you believe Is hard ?

Yes,I Do

Morning Fx ...

All technicals aside here is where my focus will be in the next 6 hours.

The news and spin live as I listen to CNBC. I also look at Oanda FX Trade news every 15 minutes or so to see new items that come out.

The patten that I talked about in an earlier post will now repeat between 6:00 AM EST and 9:30 AM at the start of the North American open.

This pattern is created by North American retail trade.

Then we have NEWS out at 8:30 AM EST which is jobless claims and I want to see if it moves up or down. There is other news then as well.

Then we get to 10:00 AM EST and other news Plus Option Expiry at 10:00 this morning and every morning Monday to Friday.

Of course I always watch Money Flow and Risk On and Risk Off.

At 11:30 AM Europe stops trading Equities markets and most are gone by NOON.

I watch how it reacts as profits are taken or positions are closed.

In the meantime we watch Greece and other important matters.

Now you know what I look for.

I Use the charts to see where to short as My Call on Short Term Trend (One Week) No Charts are used in this Call. I use my sense of Fundamental News probably coming out.

I hope this helps some of you with an open mind to follow my trade methods.

Have a Good Trading Day...

Morning Sweety

Price is trading right in the middle of my in-decision zone from the high.....entry should be ones main focus...if one knows that a future move is happening what good is the knowledge if you have no valid entry plan....