EurAnalysis

Very Good Analyst and Good Information to digest. Good Evening...

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-final-chapter

Please Look at these Charts... Fascinating !!!

http://www.financialsense.com/sites/...r-treasury.jpg

Because I try to trade in the shorter term, i.e. I like to be out of trades within 24 hours, I don't look past the 4 hr stochastics. ... Agreed though I could be wrong and because right now the trade is going against me, when it returns to breakeven, I may exit and wait till I see another opportunity.

my signal from the prev stillvalid... .....watching

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...onfidence.html

Dollar Slides a Third Day as Risk Creeps Higher, Is this Confidence?
There is a difference between a true advance and a mere relief rally. The former is anchored in capital flows and fundamentals and therefore has greater momentum for staying power. The latter is by definition and disposition temporary. The advance we are seeing in high-yield and fundamentally troubled assets is more appropriately labeled a reprieve in a dominant trend. For evidence we can look at market-based factors of conviction (or lack thereof). For our risk-benchmark S&P 500 Index, volume has topped out at around 675 million shares that consistently since the beginning of the year – significantly weaker than the turnover we witness through the previous six months. Furthermore, we note that gauges for the cost of risk (implied volatility, options, relative asset value) are exceptionally cheap. Alone, this wouldn’t be an issue, but when we pair it with the fact that the World Bank downgraded its global growth outlook and warned to prepare for the worst, rating agencies are preparing to claim Greece in default and leverage is hitting new heights; the contrast is too clear. So, while the dollar may slide for now, its run isn’t complete.

Euro: Easing Bond Auction Rates and Hope of a Greece Solution Offers Buoyancy
The euro advanced against nearly all of its counterparts Wednesday (with the exception of the Swiss franc) and subsequently put up its best performance against the benchmark US dollar since November 11th. This must be optimism…right? If we take a look at the fundamental developments through the past session, it would seem that the financial strain on the region is easing and therefore the outlook for the currency improving. Yet, nothing has really turned from negative to positive. Rather, we are seen conditions turn from negative to less negative. A good example of this is the outcome for the session’s bond auctions. This time around, we monitored the sale of 2.5 billion euros in Portuguese debt (in fact, this was the biggest auction since the government asked for its bailout last April). The rate on the three-month maturity was unchanged and it eased for the six-month bill (lower rates reflect greater confidence). This may seem a strong outcome for a country that was downgraded to ‘junk’ by Standard & Poor’s this past Friday, but the meaning is the same as for the others this week (France, Greece, Spain, EFSF) – the maturity is too short-term and therefore not a good gauge

Sounded like you were getting a bit too biased and wanted to make sure you had your head in the game.

By Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
You Can't Fool Mother Nature for Long: Financial Markets

Constant State and Central Bank intervention and manipulation is not the foundation of a free, transparent market--it is perception management in service of Elite control and looting.

You can fool Mother Nature for awhile, but not over the long-term. That's the theme of the week. Every day I will take a look at a segment of American life that is currently based on the supposition that we can dodge reality essentially forever.

Let's ask just how real our financial markets really are. We can start our inquiry with this thought experiment: where would the stock, bond and commodity markets be if all Central State and Central Bank intervention and manipulation were prohibited?

Where would the stock market be if the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) didn't manipulate the stock market via massive purchases of ES S&P 500 futures contracts? These massive purchases are always executed in sparsely traded pre-markets, maximizing the ramp-up effect, which then triggers momentum chasing buys from high-frequency trading machines.

Voila, ramp-and-camp Mondays, which studies have found account for the majority of the market's gains last year.

Remove ramp-and-camp Mondays triggered by massive PPT futures purchases, and where would the unmanipulated market be?

What if unemployment statistics were unmanipulated, i.e. the number of people in the workforce didn't magically decline by millions every year? What if the bogus "Birth-Death Model" was banned as mere fantasy job creation? Where would the unmanipulated market be then?

Where would bond market yields be if the Federal Reserve were unable to print money to buy hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage and Treasury bonds?

We can also shed light on the difference between a real free market and a simulacrum (which is Latin for ‘likeness’ or ‘similarity’) of a "free market" by asking: does anyone seriously believe the stock market would be higher if all market intervention and manipulation by the Central State and Central Bank (and their proxies) ceased?

We can extend this by asking: what if public companies were banned from issuing "beat by a penny" pro forma earnings and other accounting tricks?

What if the "shadow banking system" was outlawed, and all assets and liabilities were transparent? Does anyone seriously believe the fragile financial system that depends on shadow banking for its dodges and profits would survive transparency and marked-to-market accounting?

Americans have no real experience of free, transparent financial markets or of rigorously transparent accounting by their Central State, the Federal Reserve, public corporations or the financial sector. They have been presented facsimiles of accurate statistics and accounting, and simulacra of transparent markets.

Average Americans are responding to this systemic destruction of truth and fact by exiting the stock market--and that is just the start. As I described in When Belief in the System Fades (March 12, 2008), the Elites benefiting from the Status Quo depend on the active participation and complicity of millions of citizens.

When those participants' faith in the Status Quo's fairness and transparency declines below a critical threshold, then they withdraw or limit their participation, and the system enters a self-reinforcing death spiral.

To go back to the key question: does anyone seriously believe the stock market would be this high if the Central State and Bank and their proxies weren't constantly intervening in the market and manipulating data?

No Link From A Email

Kno's Comments

Be Aware of this when thinking ahead on a Trade Plan...

http://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/...-on-earth.html

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...urself-in-2012

Don't Shoot The Messenger !!!

hopefully shooting star coming ao turn to redhttp://i.imgur.com/JBtGW.jpg

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Jim Willie Reported that two months ago...

January 18, 2012
Germany's Fed Up and Getting Ready to Walk

For months I've been warning that when push come to shove Germany will bail on the Euro.
The reasons for this are simple:
1) The German public and court system won't stand for QE from the European Central Bank
2) Issuing Euro bonds goes against the German constitution
3) Germany has its own share of domestic problems with a REAL Debt to GDP ratio north of 200% and its banks needing tens of billions of Euros in new capital
All of these factors lead me to believe that Germany would refuse to be the ultimate backstop for the EU. You could also see Germany preparing the legislation to allow it to walk if it wanted to:
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union party voted to allow euro states to quit the currency area, endorsing the prospect of a move not permitted under euro rules.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...r-exit-1-.html
The resolution reads:
"Should a member [of the euro zone] be unable or unwilling to permanently obey the rules connected to the common currency he will be able to voluntarily--according to the rules of the Lisbon Treaty for leaving the European Union--leave the euro zone without leaving the European Union. He would receive the same status as those member states that do not have the euro."
I believe Germany implemented this legislation for itself... not some other country. And by the look of things, Germany's getting a lot closer to walking.
BBK Thiele: Current ECB Government Bond Buys Violate Treaty
The European Central Bank's government bond buys are a violation of the Maastricht Treaty, Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele said Monday.
Thiele's comments depart form the official Bundesbank line. While the German central bank has warned that larger purchases may be illegal, it has said that current purchases do not violate the prohibition of monetary financing.
Thiele recalled that the decision to buy Greek government bonds had found no support from German ECB Governing Council members. "Germany was over-ruled on the Council," Thiele said.
"These buys were a violation against the prohibition of monetary financing, that is the basic principle that a central bank should not give credit to a state," Thiele said in a speech text provided by the Bundesbank.
https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/...violate-treaty

Bundesbanker says euro zone must forget idea of QE
Europe must abandon the idea that printing money, or quantitative easing, can be used to address the euro zone debt crisis, Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele said on Monday.
Thiele called for euro zone countries to exercise fiscal discipline and said that boosting the resources of Europe's rescue funds would buy time to address the bloc's debt woes.
"But lasting confidence cannot be bought with money alone," he added in the text of a speech for delivery in Hamburg.

morning all.

So where will it go next, quick analysis:

Weekly: Still looking to be in extended correction of bull run to 1.59 in 2008

Daily: Has reached towards the lower end of the correction legs with an extended 5 wave pattern (possible pull back due)

H4: Has breached upper TL.

H1: What started as a correction of the run down from 1.287x 13th Jan has extended and invalidated it as a correction of that move.
If we now consider it as a correctiion of the move down from 1.307x 3rd Jan then it has reached the ideal target zone of 1.287x which is between 50% and 61.8% in this case.
It has also reached a double top.

Possible outlook:

IF a correction from 1.307x then we could already have seen the peak but it may also test the 61.8% yet around 1.29 before a move down.

IF not a correction then it has made a 5 wave pattern with an extended 5th wave meaning an ABC correction of the move up to this level should be on the cards and 50% = 1.275x (seen that number a few times) 61.8% = 1.272x

So possible it may range play back to 1.272x zone today before any decisive move up or down.

EDIT: should also point out that with all the shorts in the market any run to a new daily high runs the risk of hitting enough stops to push it further than expected.

Retail positioning - updated 8:40 GMT

Hello bro..How are you? Are you into some trade or just chilling?

I posted the indy here....http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...79#post5281579

The indy is also called Market Profile and its use is often known as Auction MArket Theory.

Here's the thread....http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=277528

Thanks Islander, I was looking for this ... I'll come back after reading this.

Here is the Picture Gofer, I am interested to know how does the Level Sensor / Volume Indicator helps you in decision making ..thx

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1326196014

btw .... PipTrapper_CCi has continuous TP hit on Buy E/U

thats market profile dealing with areas of value , points of control, buying selling tails etc..

u should look it up more.

Yeah in the AMT thread guys did a huge brainstorm on this ...

Thanks!! this is great