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  • #585,281
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:03am Jan 18, 2012 10:03am
Quoting mohan76
just stay wake (2:45 am) to see the break (feel of the break help plan) but market not willing . London going to close , USA might break after London , if not we will do it tomorrow @ mid Asian session.

i can wait another 30 mins
some ....isnt a bad idea
  • #585,282
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:03am Jan 18, 2012 10:03am
chart analysis - suggests that there is still some bullish momentum in this market.

long at 12824.5

got stopped out on my first trade annoyingly
  • #585,283
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:05am Jan 18, 2012 10:05am
would love to reshort in the high 1.2830's
  • #585,284
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:07am Jan 18, 2012 10:07am
Quoting ali_baba
chart analysis - suggests that there is still some bullish momentum in this market.

long at 12824.5

got stopped out on my first trade annoyingly
same here, got stop out at BE once and then long again, SL at BE now and barely alive...weird market condition
  • #585,285
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:10am Jan 18, 2012 10:10am
Quoting ali_baba
chart analysis - suggests that there is still some bullish momentum in this market.

long at 12824.5

got stopped out on my first trade annoyingly
yeah, this bastard euro is popping up showing its head on the weekly chart....it wont go down to 2500 yet...it will range then probably channel to 3000 till Feburary...THEN caution!...Failure should occur then.
So watch for large short in mid to late Feb.
just my 2cents
  • #585,286
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:20am Jan 18, 2012 10:20am
I just opened up a buy USD / CHF . Conversely , I should have opened up a sell EUR / USD but I am just a little bit uncertain about that . Multiple Reasons for EUR / USD going down

1 ) Fibonacci expansion level 61.8

2 ) Divergences

3 ) Heavy Resistance trendline and a horizontal resistance level .

Maybe at this hourly close !!!
Human
  • #585,287
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:24am Jan 18, 2012 10:24am
Quoting Pipbumper
I know, always the same question, anyway what I observed :

some resistance at 1.28, but I think 1.2880 is the more valid resistance if it would continue up. Meaning if going short that would be the sl at least, sho for me at this point, no shorts

On the long side, there is some upmove on the 4h chart, but kind of topping out. On the other hand, the 'big' drop did not happen yet, no big stop hunts happened, so I think we will range a bit today. Guess is between 1.2660 & 1.2820.

So if I see the price approaching that zone, I will see...
still within range, so some more move down could happen ..
  • #585,288
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:28am Jan 18, 2012 10:28am
Quoting cat
Don't often post, but here's my couple of bob. The sharp move down found resistance right on the 76.4% fib retracement level. My hourly chart shows that the price may well now not be able to break out of today's high or low, so for me I'm not putting my faith in any extended move either way. The day will tell.
Gotta go get the nippa from school, so that's me done for the day. I think it'll go higher, but not before a retracement to the 1.2730 level, overnight or tomorrow. Anyway, H4 chart is bullish, but needs to come back first. Goodnight all.
  • #585,289
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:28am Jan 18, 2012 10:28am
Quoting viitrader
yeah, this bastard euro is popping up showing its head on the weekly chart....it wont go down to 2500 yet...it will range then probably channel to 3000 till Feburary...THEN caution!...Failure should occur then.
So watch for large short in mid to late Feb.
just my 2cents

I believe that the overall trend will remain bearish in the medium to longer term

Reasons:
1. US economic growth & positive economic data relative to EURO zone
2. Greece remains in a precarious position
3. ECB rate cuts in Feb
4. No concrete plans to resolve the crisis / futility of fiscal compact (no focus on making the peripheral eurozone economies stronger and more resilient, which is imperative if you want to avoid a future crisis, euro cant survive long term if germany is the only country with a positive balance of payments position.

my two cents

that being said - charts displaying buy signals -
  • #585,290
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:32am Jan 18, 2012 10:32am
United Nation just release their outlook for 2012

The world economy is on the brink of another major downturn. Global economic growth started to decelerate on a broad front in mid-2011 and is estimated to have averaged 2.8 per cent over the last year. This economic slowdown is expected to continue into 2012 and 2013. The United Nations baseline forecast for the growth of world gross product (WGP) is 2.6 per cent for 2012 and 3.2 per cent for 2013, which is below the pre-crisis pace of global growth.

Persistent high unemployment in the United States and low wage growth are holding back aggregate demand and, together with the prospect of prolonged depressed housing prices, this has heightened risks of a new wave of home foreclosures. Growth in the euro zone has slowed considerably since the beginning of 2011 and the ever-simmering sovereign debt crisis heavily weighs on consumer and business confidence across Europe. The failure of policymakers in developed countries to address unemployment and prevent sovereign debt distress and financial sector fragility from escalating has posed the most acute risk for the global economy in the outlook for 2012-2013, with renewed global recession being a distinct possibility.

Meanwhile, developing countries and economies in transition are expected to continue to stoke the engine of the world economy, growing on average by 5.4 per cent in 2012 and 5.8 per cent in 2013 in the baseline outlook. Among the major developing countries, growth in China and India is expected to remain robust. GDP growth in China slowed from 10.3 per cent in 2010 to 9.3 per cent in 2011 and is projected to further slow to below 9 per cent in 2012-2013. India's economy is expected to expand by between 7.7 and 7.9 per cent in 2012¬2013, down from 8.5 per cent in 2010.

Low-income countries have experienced only a mild slowdown. In per capita terms, income growth slowed from 3.8 per cent in 2010 to 3.5 per cent in 2011 and, despite the global downturn, the poorer countries may see average income growth at or slightly above this rate in 2012 and 2013. The same holds for average growth among the United Nations category of least developed countries (LDCs).

Against this background, the report discusses several policy directions which could avoid a double-dip recession, including: optimal design of fiscal policies to stimulate more direct job creation and investment in infrastructure, energy efficiency and sustainable energy supply, and food security; stronger financial safety nets; better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies; and the provision of sufficient support to developing countries in addressing the fallout from the crisis and the coordination of policy measures at the international level.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2012wesp.pdf   1.7 MB | 1,387 downloads
  • #585,291
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:39am Jan 18, 2012 10:39am
The USD index is bearish atm so I'm expecting more upside of the Eur/Usd.
  • #585,292
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:41am Jan 18, 2012 10:41am
bull look exhausted... starting to loss the power??
  • #585,293
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:42am Jan 18, 2012 10:42am
soon bear will return
  • #585,294
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:42am Jan 18, 2012 10:42am
Quoting ali_baba
I believe that the overall trend will remain bearish in the medium to longer term

Reasons:
1. US economic growth & positive economic data relative to EURO zone
2. Greece remains in a precarious position
3. ECB rate cuts in Feb
4. No concrete plans to resolve the crisis / futility of fiscal compact (no focus on making the peripheral eurozone economies stronger and more resilient, which is imperative if you want to avoid a future crisis, euro cant survive long term if germany is the only country with a positive balance of payments position....
Agree, but not with the buy signals - Hourly is on the 1 hour descending downward trend-line which it has failed to break since end of October last year. 4 and half hourly attempts to break 1.2850 have failed. IMF to raise a Trillion $ - "give me a break". Greece about to default. Europe and London about to close for the day. Good US Data - get ready to ride the south bound train..... if she goes north I'll just add to my shorts!
May the forex be with you |
  • #585,295
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:43am Jan 18, 2012 10:43am
Been short all day and take profits ...
Finally have the gut to go long @ 1.2813
SL 1.28
TP 1.283

go long coz AUD/USD and GPB is stable
AUD/USD above 1.039
GPB/USD above 1.54
  • #585,296
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:44am Jan 18, 2012 10:44am
Quoting Black Bird
The USD index is bearish atm so I'm expecting more upside of the Eur/Usd.
it could go any direction for at least 50 pips now, entering now is a gamble. Only scalping initiatives long could succeed I guess
  • #585,297
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:46am Jan 18, 2012 10:46am
time to sleep , i have place pending @ both 2780 and 2880 hope one of them will trigger

Happy trading
Mohan
  • #585,298
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:47am Jan 18, 2012 10:47am
Quoting FXFundi
Agree, but not with the buy signals - Hourly is on the 1 hour descending downward trend-line which it has failed to break since end of October last year. 4 and half hourly attempts to break 1.2850 have failed. IMF to raise a Trillion $ - "give me a break". Greece about to default. Europe and London about to close for the day. Good US Data - get ready to ride the south bound train.....
be cautious, good US data means the global economic downturn has diminished or in the path of recovery and if that is the case the demand for save haven asset would likely to soften as well in turn will a give a room for risky asset
  • #585,299
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:48am Jan 18, 2012 10:48am
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=337466

Germany just got a downgrade
  • #585,300
  • Jan 18, 2012 10:49am Jan 18, 2012 10:49am
Quoting Pipbumper
it could go any direction for at least 50 pips now, entering now is a gamble. Only scalping initiatives long could succeed I guess
I'm already long at 1.2804. Not sure where to place my tp - open atm.
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