EurAnalysis

And If So Look At Italy...

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...n-italy-shores

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International Monetary Fund.
Thus, we turn to Italy. The country has far more sovereign debt outstanding, almost $2,000 billion than any of the other problematic governments. While ultimately the euro’s survival will come down to political realities, we feel the euro’s financial market “battle” will come down to the plight of Italy. Its debt, if added to the mounting responsibility of the EU and IMP, may simply be too much, and the euro will then crumble. Our theory is rooted in the use of a new metric to estimate the financial health of sovereigns.

“Our overall credit risk metric, while better than two years ago, places Italy among the riskiest private corporate sectors”

See the pattern and watch the action between 2:00 AM EST and 3:00 AM EST which is Europe Open. Watch Dow Futures and Gold. See if we have Risk On or Off and be careful as Wednesday the Greece Debt Issue takes Center Stage.

Watch correlation of EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and Monitor Oil and Canadian Dollar.

I am off to bed early tonight. Happy Trucking...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...Shortages.html

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye011812.pdf

And informative reviews without spin or bias...

Good Night AaronWard

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Of course, it's possible that the downturn we've observed to date will quickly reverse to a new growth path, but we should keep in mind that GDP is just the sum of consumption, real investment, government spending, and net exports, and then ask what will drive that reversal.

Have the credit strains in Europe been durably addressed? Can European economies presently be expected to expand? Is there now less need for fiscal restraint in the U.S.? Has the overhang of troubled mortgages in the financial system been worked out? Have savings rates rebounded or pressure on household budgets eased? Is consumer demand is sustainably rebounding? Is there pent-up demand for capital goods despite having drawn spending forward due to expiring tax credits last year? Are exports to the rest of the world expected to accelerate? Are profit margins likely to expand from already record levels in order to accommodate growth in corporate profits? Do companies expect demand to be strong enough to commit to large-scale or multi-year investment projects? Not all of these factors have to reverse in order to have a sustained expansion, but the headwinds don't appear light.

My intent isn't to go to battle on the recession side of this debate, but rather to share what I'm looking at, and the concerns I have about continuing economic risks - particularly since the implications for the stock market are lopsided. If we are destined to have a recession, I would prefer for us to correctly anticipate it, but I don't hope for one, and my preference would be not to observe the kind of data we're seeing here at all. Rather than overstating the case or dismissing the risks, we're willing to dwell in uncertainty by acting in proportion to the data we observe and its implications for the financial markets. At present, the data strongly implies recession risk, though with less than 100% certainty. The problem is that with overvalued, overbought, overbullish market conditions, the loss implications for the market in the event of a blindside recession are far more hostile than the possible gains in the event of a recovery that is already anticipated.

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120116.htm

Hello matlobien and welcome,

Just curious to know few things from you.

If you see my previous post 3 and 2 charts are pieces of TASAYC system.
By looking at the charts can you guide me what would be the exit points based on the Buy taken using CCI?

Hope I am clear with the question.

I am no guru, but I saw div as from Tokyo open on 15 min and sold at 2780 on 1min.

http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphot...72646473_n.jpg

ok..infact 2780 area is a critical R so that area is likely to have the TP taken for Buy.

So You use 1Min and 15 Min for your trades, do you use TASAYC system only?

Yes Goldy?

My way to say good morning

Good Morning Buddy ..have a fresh and pipfull day ahead

No, MTF.

Bought again at Euro open.

Good morning all, yesterdays short position closed at 1.2722 (+42pips) after 2nd FS failed to break and go lower. Seems today that price will be looking to test the 1.2850 / 1.2880 area. Break above these levels will open way back to 1.30 and above. FS on hourly chart just now to go long.... i hesitated to take it and will wait for setup to short.

Excellent .. has potential to travel long ... careful or Tp take before News coming in 1.30 hrs I guess...

Good morning everyone. I just started a new poll on Greece's future together with an invitation to discuss and debate.

Here it is --> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=337338

Please participate

Waiting for the 1.2850 area because there's more confluences of support & resistance. It's a pretty good looking supply zone.

On the 4 hour chart, the last 3 swing highs have:
a fibo of around the 88% from 1.2877
a fibo of around the 50% from 1.3076
a fibo of around the 38% from 1.3199
These all line up pretty nicely too.

Close to an interior trendline

Also the further it retraces up the harder it will fall.


Looks like an irresistible short?

Don't underestimate the resistance right around 1.28. This level was tested immediately prior to the European open and sank at the opening bell.

I'm not sure that this level can be broken on sentiment alone. My opinion is that 1.28 will hold until some semi-major news comes out later in the week.