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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #19,781
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:46am Jan 17, 2012 6:46am
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #19,782
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:47am Jan 17, 2012 6:47am
Quoting PipsMaster23
A perfect FS on 10min chart ignited short position from 1.2764.... a further break of 1.27 i will add on as per next FS on same 10m chart. im looking for price to reach 1.2650 hourly time frame target.
No...hold it there till I reach home (3 hrs more) and place a Sale !
  • #19,783
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:56am Jan 17, 2012 6:56am
Good morning. It's a risk on morning too.

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European sovereigns finally got the S&P downgrades friday and the EFSF was downgraded too monday which were pretty much expected for a month or more.

Greek debt talks broke down last week and are supposed to resume wednesday. Hedge funds are the big hangup here and that isn't unusual for them to be a holdout on taking a haircut on soverign bonds. They would rather have a default so they can still get most of their money back from the credit default swaps (CDS) they paid a lot of money for.

Talk about Greece going to default. Personally I think they already have with the 50% haircut and probably will do much worse than that and will get the boot out of the eurozone and it'll be a real mess for them to deal with if they do. I'd bet most of anyone that follows the fundamentals does too. I think the real surprise will be if they don't and actually stay in the Eurozone. If they do eventually exit, I see it as a positive for the Euro.

Yesterdays French 51 week bill auction was better than pre-downgrade and French and Spanish 10 years were slightly better too. More French auctions scheduled for thursday.

Friday the markets had their kneejerk reaction to the downgrade rumors that turned out to be true but also something that was expected. Which whipsawed my account from being 1500 pips in profit to being 1000 underwater but nothing was stopped out. US indices really didn't close too bad friday on the S&P downgrades and European markets closed higher monday.

Slightly better than expected Chinese data last night and this is giving commodities and commodity currencies a lift.

Long term trendline support on the weekly and the demand zone is holding so far. If you place the pair in a weekly channel she's at the bottom.

Add: Disclaimer..... Tom, I don't do fundamentals

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #19,784
  • Jan 17, 2012 7:28am Jan 17, 2012 7:28am
Quoting knoholygrail
Once the fundamental news came out we had Risk On and before it came out Gold was Strong as I pointed out earlier this morning. That was a sign of US Dollar Weakness and I posted at chart from INO earlier. Yet with ALL that EUR/USD has not performed that well.

I get my answers from Correlation and Money Flow between Asset Classes.

Does that make Common Sense to anyone here on this thread ?

More shortly...
Money flow does make sense, I was spending hours last night trying to find more answers on the subject in cloggie's posts. There is also a very good thread on correlation here where the author goes into detail with some math and examples of how it works. My current challenge with money flow is that yes it does give you the general direction but it does not give you the levels to watch out for. With money flow trading can you call levels before their hit and enter with little DD? Most of us traders want specificity (maybe just me) because we hate DD.
  • #19,785
  • Jan 17, 2012 7:35am Jan 17, 2012 7:35am
Quoting Tyoon
With money flow trading can you call levels before their hit and enter with little DD? Most of us traders want specificity (maybe just me) because we hate DD.
I forgot to mention; apparently there is a way but that is for later if/when I figure it out.
  • #19,786
  • Jan 17, 2012 7:37am Jan 17, 2012 7:37am
Quoting Tyoon
Money flow does make sense, I was spending hours last night trying to find more answers on the subject in cloggie's posts. There is also a very good thread on correlation here where the author goes into detail with some math and examples of how it works. My current challenge with money flow is that yes it does give you the general direction but it does not give you the levels to watch out for. With money flow trading can you call levels before their hit and enter with little...
There seems to be leaders and followers in the money flow game. Typically the Bond market and the Dow are two leaders but it can vary. Often you can trade the E/U using the Dow chart patterns and make better trades than using the E/U chart. However, you have to pick you day.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #19,787
  • Jan 17, 2012 7:40am Jan 17, 2012 7:40am
Quoting AaronWard
There seems to be leaders and followers in the money flow game. Typically the Bond market and the Dow are two leaders but it can vary. Often you can trade the E/U using the Dow chart patterns and make better trades than using the E/U chart. However, you have to pick you day.
Thanks Aaron that is probably one of the clearest explanations on MF that has gotten through my thick skull recently. I used to use DOW/ES a lot before Christmas before the correlation went all out of whack.
  • #19,788
  • Jan 17, 2012 7:46am Jan 17, 2012 7:46am
Quoting Tyoon
Money flow does make sense, I was spending hours last night trying to find more answers on the subject in cloggie's posts. There is also a very good thread on correlation here where the author goes into detail with some math and examples of how it works. My current challenge with money flow is that yes it does give you the general direction but it does not give you the levels to watch out for. With money flow trading can you call levels before their hit and enter with little...
Congratulations ... The Real Holy Grail Might Be In Your Hands Now. Please read my Post on Risk Management and Money Management and look at my PM concerning my suggestion for you to understand the method properly.

Please let me know. My knowledge is NOT THEORY...

It is hands on trading and REAL RESULTS of 5% a month and perhaps more if you have the skills and knowledge and pyschology to become a winning forex trader. The learning EDGE is what you need to finnally catch that Holy Grail. It really goes good with Dom Perrignon !!!
  • #19,789
  • Jan 17, 2012 7:49am Jan 17, 2012 7:49am
Quoting Tyoon
Thanks Aaron that is probably one of the clearest explanations on MF that has gotten through my thick skull recently. I used to use DOW/ES a lot before Christmas before the correlation went all out of whack.
Nothing thick about your skull.

The key flaw with money flow is, like everything else, it tells you what has happened, not what will. The only type of edge that can exist for a trader is something that will give him an advantage in what will happen.

Key question I always ask is "What is the predictive value of this"?
Some other of tricks you can do with money flow are:

1. to try to deconstruct a market movement (ie Euro moves from 1.26-1.28 in a strong risk on day... so maybe 120 pips was risk on)

2. to use it as an overbought, oversold indicator (ie risk on day with euro making no gains means Euro is probably overbought)

3. do comparative evaluation (ie risk on and E/U moves 50 pips while AUD moves 100pips means that AUD is more "risky" than the Euro.)
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #19,790
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:05am Jan 17, 2012 8:05am
Quoting AaronWard
Nothing thick about your skull.

The key flaw with money flow is, like everything else, it tells you what has happened, not what will. The only type of edge that can exist for a trader is something that will give him an advantage in what will happen.

Key question I always ask is "What is the predictive value of this"?
Some other of tricks you can do with money flow are:

1. to try to deconstruct a market movement (ie Euro moves from 1.26-1.28 in a strong risk on day... so maybe 120 pips was risk on)

2. to use it as an overbought, oversold...
I use this method everyday and my true results are 10% a month minimum and by following the method you have a better chance to earn good money if you have other skills to go with it.

No person who trades his/her fears, greed and or ego can hope to make money trading anything. Please call it discipline.

When the MONEY FLOW changes it alllows you to have a leading EDGE is seeing a MOMENTUM CHANGE and that will then start to change the charts everytime. It works and more than that I cannot say. However if you are now making money consistently trading forex with your personality and methods then please do not change anything. Now back to my other work of today.
  • #19,791
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:06am Jan 17, 2012 8:06am
Quoting knoholygrail
Please let me know. My knowledge is NOT THEORY...!
Thanks Kno but your MM strategy is based on a fund scale larger than what I have available. As for MF, I will be studying that along side the more specific methods of TA, methods that identify key levels.

Fundies are the overall driver of a currency and can often be a catalyst for directional change.

MF is all about the big boys and where they park their billions and identifying where they're putting it and profiting from the ride/trend. In other respects it is very much related to S/D.

Certain methods of TA is about identifying the turns and continuations of MF in terms of levels and that is what I am focusing on right now.

Quoting AaronWard
Key question I always ask is "What is the predictive value of this"?
Some other of tricks you can do with money flow are:

1. to try to deconstruct a market movement (ie Euro moves from 1.26-1.28 in a strong risk on day... so maybe 120 pips was risk on)

2. to use it as an overbought, oversold indicator (ie risk on day with euro making no gains means Euro is probably overbought)

3. do comparative evaluation (ie risk on and E/U moves 50 pips while AUD moves 100pips means that AUD is more "risky" than the Euro.)
These are great key points, thanks Aaron. So in a risk on environment if A/U moves more (say double) than E/U then that means AUD is more desired so the big boys are willing to take more risk on with it?
  • #19,792
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:24am Jan 17, 2012 8:24am
Quoting Tyoon
So in a risk on environment if A/U moves more (say double) than E/U then that means AUD is more desired so the big boys are willing to take more risk on with it?

personally I think the term "risk" applied to money flow is a bit misleading. Other than in the extreme movements I really doubt the thing on the top of the big boys mind is risk.

However if you want to think about it that way, the answer is yes.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #19,793
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:25am Jan 17, 2012 8:25am
Quoting knoholygrail
I use this method everyday and my true results are 10% a month minimum and by following the method you have a better chance to earn good money if you have other skills to go with it.

No person who trades his/her fears, greed and or ego can hope to make money trading anything. Please call it discipline.

When the MONEY FLOW changes it alllows you to have a leading EDGE is seeing a MOMENTUM CHANGE and that will then start to change the charts everytime. It works and more than that I cannot say. However if you are now making money consistently...
Not only do I like MF, I think it is one of the most important things you can spend your time paying attention to.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #19,794
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:27am Jan 17, 2012 8:27am
Quoting AaronWard
personally I think the term "risk" applied to money flow is a bit misleading. Other than in the extreme movements I really doubt the thing on the top of the big boys mind is risk.

However if you want to think about it that way, the answer is yes.
How would you define risk other than the way I am thinking of it?
  • #19,795
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:31am Jan 17, 2012 8:31am
Quoting Tyoon
I forgot to mention; apparently there is a way but that is for later if/when I figure it out.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #19,796
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:31am Jan 17, 2012 8:31am
Quoting Tyoon
How would you define risk other than the way I am thinking of it?
our definition of risk is probably the same... where we differ is our idea of what the "big boy" is thinking.

I think he is thinking "Looks about time to do some buying/selling again" rather than "Oh shit, things look so good I think I will go long E/U."
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #19,797
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:35am Jan 17, 2012 8:35am
Quoting AaronWard
I think he is thinking "Looks about time to do some buying/selling again" rather than "Oh shit, things look so good I think I will go long E/U."
Haha yeah, the word risk can be confusing as it's used in multiple contexts in trading.
  • #19,798
  • Jan 17, 2012 8:41am Jan 17, 2012 8:41am
FXMindset - Tired
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #19,799
  • Edited 9:07am Jan 17, 2012 9:01am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting Tyoon
Thanks Kno but your MM strategy is based on a fund scale larger than what I have available. As for MF, I will be studying that along side the more specific methods of TA, methods that identify key levels.

Fundies are the overall driver of a currency and can often be a catalyst for directional change.

MF is all about the big boys and where they park their billions and identifying where they're putting it and profiting from the ride/trend. In other respects it is very much related to S/D.

Certain methods of TA is about identifying the turns...
Since I was very fortunate because of my nature and discipline to trade Demo funds of $50,000 US for 2 1/2 years from September 2003 to March 2006, I was able to learn to trade in a proper way without the fear of losing money. That I now find is an incredible benefit. Just think about it. If you want to be a Doctor or a Lawyer or a Chartered Accountant you need to go to school.

Once I went to school for 2 1/2 years I had a chance to get someone to entrust me with $10,000 US Dollars with Real Funds. I traded my FIRST funds from March 9, 2006 until May 4, 2006 when my friend/client put in another $15,000 US Dollars. I traded the account until June 7, 2006 and in the three months I doubled the real funds account.

I counsel everyone who is truly serious in earning a living trading forex to arrange funds from family and friends after you trade a demo account for at least one year and earn profits even if it is only 1% a month for one year or at least a net ROI of 10% for the year.

That's my take on things. Have a nice day Europe is now gone and Wednesday might be Default Day. Be Very Careful...
  • #19,800
  • Jan 17, 2012 9:05am Jan 17, 2012 9:05am
Quoting AaronWard
Nothing thick about your skull.

The key flaw with money flow is, like everything else, it tells you what has happened, not what will. The only type of edge that can exist for a trader is something that will give him an advantage in what will happen.

Key question I always ask is "What is the predictive value of this"?
Some other of tricks you can do with money flow are:

1. to try to deconstruct a market movement (ie Euro moves from 1.26-1.28 in a strong risk on day... so maybe 120 pips was risk on)

2. to use it as an overbought,...
Nice piece of info bro!
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
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