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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #19,721
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:09am Jan 17, 2012 5:09am
Entry@5:55am exit@6:02am - 2 bar reversal
  • #19,722
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:12am Jan 17, 2012 5:12am
Quoting GoldMan.
You don't know me, I can be cute but cruel

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMWi7CLoZ2Q
I am thinking about making this my trading theme song.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #19,723
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:22am Jan 17, 2012 5:22am
Quoting GoldMan.
Nom nom nom

But i'm not surprised if it breaks it later, let's see.
That zone you circled out, this is a part of the S/D theory I don't fully trust. If S/D is all about large orders being filled then if price has passed up and down that zone why is this zone still valid? Isn't that zone just a price pivot zone without any real regard to S/D?

As you said, it's likely to break. Right now on the 1M price is forming a bull flag. What reactions are you looking for in this zone?

Nom nom
  • #19,724
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:31am Jan 17, 2012 5:31am
Quoting theIEguy9_09
Entry@5:55am exit@6:02am - 2 bar reversal
Entry@6:15am exit@6:30am - 2 bar reversal
  • #19,725
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:33am Jan 17, 2012 5:33am
Quoting Tyoon
That zone you circled out, this is a part of the S/D theory I don't fully trust. If S/D is all about large orders being filled then if price has passed up and down that zone why is this zone still valid? Isn't that zone just a price pivot zone without any real regard to S/D?

As you said, it's likely to break. Right now on the 1M price is forming a bull flag. What reactions are you looking for in this zone?

Nom nom
Yes it passed up and down but such large TF S or D levels very often still repsect such zones, it's just not so valid as it used to be but it is still area where you should keep your eyes at. And as you see it is having some bull weakness in that zone still.

Mostly looking candle formations.
  • #19,726
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:46am Jan 17, 2012 5:46am
Quoting theIEguy9_09
Entry@6:15am exit@6:30am - 2 bar reversal
Entry@6:39am exit@6:44am - continuation
Have a good day folks!! See ya tomorrow
  • #19,727
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:54am Jan 17, 2012 5:54am
Quoting Tyoon
That zone you circled out, this is a part of the S/D theory I don't fully trust. If S/D is all about large orders being filled then if price has passed up and down that zone why is this zone still valid? Isn't that zone just a price pivot zone without any real regard to S/D?

As you said, it's likely to break. Right now on the 1M price is forming a bull flag. What reactions are you looking for in this zone?

Nom nom
I just woke up and my mind is fresh with the good sleep that I got. I was reading with interest the views on technicals and news and supply and demand.

My question is this. Earlier this morning before the ZEW news came out and results of the bond auction was known EUR/USD had a High near 1.2780 and then the news. The high on my FXCM UK platform shows at 1.28022

How do you know how much supply there is out there ? We all knew if you follow technicals that there was Strong Resistance at 1.2800 and 1.2805. I did 10 trades overnight showing someone here my strategy on Risk Management so I have had the pulse of the EUR/USD the last few hours since 1:00 AM EST.

The EUR/USD is now at 1.2773 and EUR/JPY is at 98.11

Did the charts predict the news and then run up to that point of resistance ?

When I have some answers I will continue with my Common Sense Rules AKA Money Flows.
  • #19,728
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:54am Jan 17, 2012 5:54am
Quoting GoldMan.
Yes it passed up and down but such large TF S or D levels very often still repsect such zones, it's just not so valid as it used to be but it is still area where you should keep your eyes at. And as you see it is having some bull weakness in that zone still.

Mostly looking candle formations.
Your not really into correlation are you? I'm looking at patterns across the board for continuation or reversal. You looking for engulfs ect. on 5M?

..
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  • #19,729
  • Jan 17, 2012 5:59am Jan 17, 2012 5:59am
Quoting Tyoon
Your not really into correlation are you? I'm looking at patterns across the board for continuation or reversal. You looking for engulfs ect. on 5M?

..
Once the fundamental news came out we had Risk On and before it came out Gold was Strong as I pointed out earlier this morning. That was a sign of US Dollar Weakness and I posted at chart from INO earlier. Yet with ALL that EUR/USD has not performed that well.

I get my answers from Correlation and Money Flow between Asset Classes.

Does that make Common Sense to anyone here on this thread ?

More shortly...
  • #19,730
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:02am Jan 17, 2012 6:02am
Quoting knoholygrail
The news has been terrible all morning as I read it on Oanda FX Trade news. Let;s see where the markets trade in New York. The rise was stops being hit and short covering. Now we see where we are at 6:00 AM EST and news out of Europe shortly.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...X&t=&a=&w=&v=s

Look at EUR/USD at the moment ?
  • #19,731
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:06am Jan 17, 2012 6:06am
Quoting Tyoon
Your not really into correlation are you? I'm looking at patterns across the board for continuation or reversal. You looking for engulfs ect. on 5M?

..
You make it too complicated for me my friend.

You don't even need a supply and demand zones really, just look at this H1 candle...what has happened in that hour? It is screaming in to your face, hey bulls, we have a damn problem here. That tells you that maybe you sohuld take half of your soldier out and then atack again if you see next good strike.

I love this battle game.
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  • #19,732
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:19am Jan 17, 2012 6:19am
Quoting GoldMan.
You make it too complicated for me my friend.

You don't even need a supply and demand zones really, just look at this H1 candle...what has happened in that hour? It is screaming in to your face, hey bulls, we have a damn problem here. That tells you that maybe you sohuld take half of your soldier out and then atack again if you see next good strike.

I love this battle game.
You see? Little fall back and recruiting by the bull army, they struck again and got even futher to enemy lines. Just like war between 2 countries.

nom nom
  • #19,733
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:27am Jan 17, 2012 6:27am
When I was up earlier this morning as my posts show I saw Dow Futures up neat Plus 80.

The TONE for the day started with Good China News... That was there. Then Good Bond Auctions which REALISTICALLY means NOTHING as we KNOW who is buying the Bonds and with whose Money. The LTRO and money parked by the banks there just hit a NEW Overnight High. All the Asset Classes have moved up. That can be seen by the Chart posted here from time to time.

Now I look at CForrelation between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. If EUR/JPY breaks 98.04 and moves down to 97.50 then EUR/USD should end up near 1.2715... That does not come from the charts.

So far all this information is useful and not much of this information came from price action or technicals.

Now to SET the Benchmarks for the morning as we await the New York Open since the Downgrade on Friday to see what it does. However now that is old news and the focus is on China, Bond Auctions, ZEW and let us not forget Greece on Wednesday ?

That could BE A BIG FUNDAMENTAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.

So here we go with the numbers that I use moment by moment in my trading style.

EUR/USD 1.2769

EUR/JPY 98.10

USD/JPY 76.81

Dow Futures 97 Up

Gold $1663.50 US Future Contract

Oil Up at $100.84 UP $2.14 US

Now to the 2 Year US Bond Yields at .23% and the 10 Year US Bonds at 1.90% with the spread 167 basis point.

A quick NOTE as I post this...

EUR.USD just shot up to 1.2795 and EUR/JPY up to 98.24

What happened ? Why Did It Go up so quick ? My 5 Minute Chart on FXCM UK Market Scope is ALL Green and now it comes back some on the next candle. Short covering on Stops put there by retail traders when a Big Order went into the market. It was not my BUY order !!!

Now we watch what happens between now and 8:30 AM when NEW Fundamental News comes out. Option Expiry at 10:00 AM EST. Europe Close at 11:30 AM EST and my Closing time for slow leaving traders in Europe at NOON.

Fundmental Question NOT TECHNICAL !!! Will some profits be taken by NOON or positions closed because of EVENT RISK on Wednesday with resumption of Greece Debt Talks ?

Knowing that in ADVANCE might give me a Trade Plan Short near those hours if EUR/USD moves up yet does Not Break Resistance whereever that is at 11:30 AM EST and NOON...

If The Dow Goes Up 250 and I have NO IDEA if it will then EUR/USD might go up. I say might because of disconnect recently on correlation. We now are in Risk On VS Risk Off. Happy Days are here again and all is well.

I have learned some things and focused my own thoughts in by posting them here.

All comments and feedback are welcome regardless of your views on my posts pro or con...

My TEST will to SEE IF EUR/USD can get OVER 1.2810 and Hold with all the Happy News out there which has changed the PERCEPTION SHORT TERM However NOT THE REALITY of the Downgrades of the last few days.
  • #19,734
  • Edited 6:37am Jan 17, 2012 6:32am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting bumapatria
im not sure what will happen to eu if gold goes back down - but thats what i think anyways

Gold is so much considered an uptrend and 'a buy always' by everyone. but we all know that price drops because of sellers and that means there ARE sellers in the gold. And today might be the best day for any of you gold bears to go selling. 14 day stochastic is overbought and 50 day MA and old support level at 1667 can possibly become resisance. Daily bearish trendline is also going to be hit on third time. a trend is confirmed after 3+ TL hits usually....
How do you know who is buying Gold and Why ?

Gold is a very unique Asset Class as it is a commodity and a currency.

There are INTERVENTIONS daily through the Paper Market. The US Dollar Index is weak and Gold went up ?

Why ? Is there more QE coming ?

Do you follow my Common Sense here ? Go to WWW.JSMINESET.COM for better information if you care to...

Snippet:

January 16, 2012, at 12:58 pm
by Jim Sinclair
The Churning Process In Gold Takes Out the Weak Hands
CIGA Eric
Sorry, but that’s how this game is played.
Global currency devaluation has been holding equities in a depressionary box and coddling the illusion of economic growth since late 1999.

The purchasing power of the US dollar has been sliding hard since 1934 (see chart 1)
Chart 1: Purchasing Power of the USD
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...p_image002.gif
Global capital adapts to the currency devaluation by seeking inflation hedges such as fractional ownership of global assets, i.e. stocks (see chart 2).
Chart 2: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Z Scores of Secular Trends
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/..._image0042.gif
Flow of capital also adapts to the skill of centralized economic management. When confidence centralized management declines, capital adapts by seeking return of rather than on capital. The cyclic out performance of gold (return of capital) over equities (return on capital), illustrated in chart 3 and chart 4, reveals this adaptation.
Chart 3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) AND DJIA to Gold Ratio
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/..._image0062.gif
Chart 4: Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) AND DJTA to Gold Ratio (DJTAGOLDR)
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...p_image008.gif
The secular bull market in gold is not over. The majority retail players, nevertheless, won’t survive the churning process.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...e009_thumb.gifMore…
  • #19,735
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:42am Jan 17, 2012 6:42am
i deleted that post.


and i didnt say i "knew" who is buying it.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #19,736
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:44am Jan 17, 2012 6:44am
Quoting bumapatria
...
Buma ... let us see the chart you have for EUR/USD ...
  • #19,737
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:46am Jan 17, 2012 6:46am
is anyone else watching Jim O'Neill on bloomberg right now? what a bag of wind

the only thing he has to say that i agree with is that the CHF and JPY are far more interesting long-term trend-wise than the euro.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #19,738
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:47am Jan 17, 2012 6:47am
I sometimes do wild guess!

The only 6v I know is Krun .. Krun are you playing hide n seek game with us?
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  • #19,739
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:51am Jan 17, 2012 6:51am
Quoting redteamgo
is anyone else watching Jim O'Neill on bloomberg right now? what a bag of wind

the only thing he has to say that i agree with is that the CHF and JPY are far more interesting long-term trend-wise than the euro.
Mass media is for the masses. It is there to keep them dumb and ignorant.

Inserted Video
  • #19,740
  • Jan 17, 2012 6:53am Jan 17, 2012 6:53am
Quoting rekon67
Buma ... let us see the chart you have for EUR/USD ...
ehhhh i dont know.. euro is some weird thing so i havent been playin much with it.

but heres daily as it goes. we did go up on the last cycle - approaching hte next if price continues to rise - we mgiht see a drop. we have a twitch in the movng average and the cycle line.

all we need is a good price then.
but as all time traders say:

"Dont think anything - before the time. its always a wait and see".
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
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