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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #19,661
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:05pm Jan 16, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting rekon67
thx Gofer .. all well till now ..lets see the news effect ...
What ?! CNY GDP is good ... effect in the market please?
  • #19,662
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:06pm Jan 16, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting rekon67
What ?! CNY GDP is good ... effect in the market please?

should be since china is 2 largest economy in the world
Bismillah
  • #19,663
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:09pm Jan 16, 2012 8:09pm
Quoting rekon67
What ?! CNY GDP is good ... effect in the market please?
Got Ya!
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  • #19,664
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:09pm Jan 16, 2012 8:09pm
Quoting krunfx
should be since china is 2 largest economy in the world
E/U plus or minus ?
  • #19,665
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:11pm Jan 16, 2012 8:11pm
Quoting rekon67
E/U plus or minus ?
still plus 13
Bismillah
  • #19,666
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:13pm Jan 16, 2012 8:13pm
Quoting krunfx
still plus 13
make it negative
  • #19,667
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:16pm Jan 16, 2012 8:16pm
Quoting rekon67
ok..gr8 ... PT please guide me to the recent post of urs abt using CCI?
Okay news is out. Slightly better than expected but nothing to celebrate about. It should start fading soon, but I would not rule out a bit more upside first. It does have room to go up but it will be short lived. No worries.
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As for CCI, here's what I am working on.

Use a 5 minute GBP/USD or EUR/USD chart. (GBP/USD is better because it is more whippy)

Use a SMMA (Smoothed Moving average) of 89 periods on Typical Price (H+L+C)/3

Use a CCI indicator with 60 periods on Typical Price and set the levels at +100 and -100

When price is above SMMA and SMMA is slanting upwards and there is still upside left before resistance, when CCI signal crosses from below -100 to above -100, Buy

When price is below SMMA and SMMA is slanting downwards and there is still downside left before support, when CCI signal crosses from above +100 to below +100, Sell

TP should be approx 100pips. Once TP is reached, close half of position and trail the rest with 50%

SL should be around 50 pips or if you are brave like me, you can wait till it is 100 pips against you and at next CCI signal, take a rescue position for 100pips. You will have to calculate how many lots you will need to rescue in 100 pips from rescue entry.

I have written a robot to do this for me but I am still testing it. You can see the results in my trade explorer on my profile page.

Trading hours for this strategy are from London open (8am GMT) to 2 hours before NY close (7pm GMT)

DO NOT TRADE THIS ON A LIVE ACCOUNT IF YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE. i AM STILL TESTING AND TWEEKING.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #19,668
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:22pm Jan 16, 2012 8:22pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay news is out. Slightly better than expected but nothing to celebrate about. It should start fading soon, but I would not rule out a bit more upside first. It does have room to go up but it will be short lived. No worries.
Attachment

As for CCI, here's what I am working on.

Use a 5 minute GBP/USD or EUR/USD chart. (GBP/USD is better because it is more whippy)

Use a SMMA (Smoothed Moving average) of 89 periods on Typical Price (H+L+C)/3

Use a CCI indicator with 60 periods on Typical Price and set the levels at +100 and -100

When...

Excellent thx ..PT

Perhaps today is day of testing the resistances ... PA has potential to UP and create further highs until it falls below 1.2680 before UK open (IMO)
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  • #19,669
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:28pm Jan 16, 2012 8:28pm
Quoting rekon67
make it negative
hmm...my analysis still valid.....if it againt....then i shold check it back
Bismillah
  • #19,670
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:36pm Jan 16, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting rekon67
Excellent thx ..PT

Perhaps today is day of testing the resistances ... PA has potential to UP and create further highs until it falls below 1.2680 before UK open (IMO)
I back tested the strategy with rescue trades (no Stop losses) and these are the results. Initial lot size was 0.25 standard lots. 1st Rescue was approx 0.25 to 0.3 lots and 2nd rescue when needed (only twice) was 0.6 lots

Total maximum drawdown on capital was only 2.71% Not bad at all. However, this is only 2 months of back test. It really needs 3 to 4 years of back test for me to be confident.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #19,671
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:40pm Jan 16, 2012 8:40pm
Quoting PipTrapper
TP should be approx 100pips. Once TP is reached, close half of position and trail the rest with 50%
If I follow the indicator (lets give it a name say PT_CCI_Fx_Killer ) It took the entry @ 1.266x so TP is + 100 which makes price goes 1.276x ... in my chart 50% fib and R3 is @ 1.2754 ... all the technical s pretty much matching and this is a good set-up in deed!
  • #19,672
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:43pm Jan 16, 2012 8:43pm
Quoting rekon67
If I follow the indicator (lets give it a name say PT_CCI_Fx_Killer ) It took the entry @ 1.266x so TP is + 100 which makes price goes 1.276x ... in my chart 50% fib and R3 is @ 1.2754 ... all the technical s pretty much matching and this is a good set-up in deed!
Excellent. Now we see how the robot does. Watch the trade explorer on my profile page starting at London open tomorrow.

EDIT: oops I mean later today \

By the way, I just called it PipTrapper-cci
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #19,673
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:48pm Jan 16, 2012 8:48pm
I am going to get some sleep now. See you at London open.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #19,674
  • Jan 16, 2012 8:49pm Jan 16, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Excellent. Now we see how the robot does. Watch the trade explorer on my profile page starting at London open tomorrow.

EDIT: oops I mean later today

By the way, I just called it PipTrapper-cci
Trade explorer is freezed ? ok..it'll active later today?
  • #19,675
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:24pm Jan 16, 2012 9:24pm
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/up.../mwo011612.pdf

Well worth the time to read it all. Good Trading.

Snippet:

Writing in the

Wall Street Journal on December 28, 2011, Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr. of the Cato Institute and a former Dallas Fed Vice President said the Federal Reserve is engaged in a bailout of European banks under the guise of what the Fed terms “a temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap
arrangement.” Dr. O’Driscoll indicates the Fed and ECB are engaged in this roundabout transaction since each needs a “fig leaf” because the Fed does not want it known that the Fed’s balance sheet is being made available to foreign banks. He cites three problems with this approach.

“First, the Fed has no authority for a bailout of Europe. ...Second, these Federal Reserve swap arrangements foster the moral hazards and distortions that government credit allocation entails. ...Third, the nontransparency of the swap arrangements is troublesome in a democracy.”

In addition to these problems, we would add that, in the final analysis, this new program is simply another expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. This program will make the Fed’s balance sheet even more bloated relative to its mere $54 billion of capital, just 1.9% of total liabilities. Without evidence to the contrary, we fail to see how this cleverly named swap program can achieve any type of satisfactory outcome. In fact, any other balance sheet expansion activities, such as the additional purchases of mortgage-backed securities, will also fail to result in positive GDP expansion. On the contrary, the uncertainty created by untested Fed interventions will inhibit business planning and reduce risk taking, thereby slowing growth. In order to improve business conditions, improve psychology, and create a stable planning environment one approach would be a five year moratorium on all new fed actions and banking regulations, and a settled tax policy. Until that is accomplished, “animal spirits” will be depressed.

Kno's Comments: More and more mainstream analyst's are speaking out and they are aware of what the FED is doing secretly. That is good since one day the game will be over and everyone will know who the bad guys are.
  • #19,676
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:38pm Jan 16, 2012 9:38pm
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-P4vgXqce1s...00/InvGold.PNG
  • #19,677
  • Jan 16, 2012 10:08pm Jan 16, 2012 10:08pm
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...rce_Break.html

Snippet:

Dollar Salivating for Euro Troubles or 4Q Earnings to Force Break
With the global economy slowing, rates fading and financial instability becoming the norm; my medium-term outlook is for a meaningful risk aversion move. Yet, at this point, I would settle for a short-term rally in risk trends. We have lacked any kind of meaningful momentum since before the year began.

Giving us a sense of this inactivity, the equity market’s (my passive barometer for market-wide risk) VIX Volatility reading is plunging its lowest level since late July while the currency equivalent is testing comparative lows. This is a measure of future activity. Those measures of current activity are running at similar levels. If we were in fundamental trough or plateau – or even a mixed scenario – this anchoring wouldn’t surprise me. That said, we are not facing balanced conditions. The threat of financial and economic risk is clearly rising (even politicians are admitting to it), and yet we still lack for conviction.


What is needed is a catalyst that draws investors off of the sidelines and encourages them to be active in this market once again. The European downgrades have so far failed to stoke fears of our next global financial crisis taking root (more on that below) and the steady slide in economic activity across various regions has yielded the same. That is the risk side of the balance, so now we will try the ‘return’ side. With Tuesday’s session, we will kick off the 4Q US earnings season in earnest. Will these figures finally return to reality and offer a spark for broader risk?


Euro has Not Dodged a Bullet with Downgrades, French Bond Auction
The Euro has passed the first opportunity to respond to the Standard & Poor’s round of Friday evening rate cuts, and not only has the currency avoided a strong bearish slide – it didn’t move at all. Neither the shared currency nor risk appetite trends made a meaningful move liquidity filled out once again. Should we take this to mean that the downgrades have no influence? Of course not.

Less controversial, does this mean that the downgrades themselves were fully priced in? We could argue this point on price action, but the reality of the situation is that the full impact of this change cannot be fully appreciated due to the complexity of how this can further and accelerate the region’s financial crisis. Therefore, the rate cut to France itself may have been adjusted for, but its influence in undermining the region’s safe haven options, unnerving regional banks and diverting capital flow won’t be known until it is already behind us.
  • #19,678
  • Jan 16, 2012 10:53pm Jan 16, 2012 10:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Excellent. Now we see how the robot does. Watch the trade explorer on my profile page starting at London open tomorrow.

EDIT: oops I mean later today

By the way, I just called it PipTrapper-cci
PT,

Can we add auto-exit for the bot when CCI crosses down -100 or is this possible to determine through code the format of the last closed candle, whether it was an evening star?
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  • #19,679
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:01pm Jan 16, 2012 11:01pm
Aaron, u know, I was looking at this in more detail and if someone utilized 25% of the their trading account, always reinvesting 25% of their profits on every winning trade, instead of using 30 straight winning trades as an example, lets use 24 straight winning trades, someone would take a 5k account to about 1 million dollars if they could do 24 straight winning trades of 100 pips each per all those lots being utilized.

Now as out of this world as this sounds, if people break it down further in a manner to take it one trade at a time to be better disciplined instead of looking too far ahead and not trading the right way right now, they will notice that the 24 trades represents 2 trades a month. This makes this scenario more plausible for the extremely patient trader because the EUR/USD will surely provide at least two and usually more "clear" signals of which way its going to go for 100 pips or more on a monthly basis. Alll someone needs to do is exercise that level of patience to wait for the highest probability trade and maybe just maybe this amazing feat can be pulled off. ... I'm certain some people on the thread have already done it but understandly I wouldn't expect them to put that type of information out there for strangers to see.

Thoughts?


Quoting AaronWard
Glad someone read that. Actually it is an 80000% percent (800X) not a 800% increase (8X). Not only is this possible, but you could have done this on the E/U just this year.

Patience is key and that (in addition to the general benefits of ending a trading session feeling relaxed) is why I meditate while trading.

However, the reality of betting 5% of your account on a 20 pip movement is just nuts. Pyramiding in on a higher TF trend or even a strong intraday trend is possible though.
  • #19,680
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:11am Jan 17, 2012 1:11am
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120117157536/

Snippet:

After downgrading nine Eurozone states last week, S&P cut the credit rating of EFSF bailout fund yesterday, by notch to AA+ from AAA. The rating agency said that "EFSF’s obligations are no longer fully supported either by guarantees from EFSF members rated AAA by S&P, or by AAA rated securities". Meanwhile, "credit enhancements sufficient to offset what we view as the reduced creditworthiness of guarantors are currently not in place". S&P also warned that it could change the outlook to negative to "mirror the negative outlooks of France and Austria" if no credit enhancement options are adopted by the EFSF. In response to the downgrade, EFSF CEO Regling said the fund has "sufficient means to fulfill its commitments under current and potential future adjustment programs until the ESM becomes operational in July 2012". The comments were echoed by EU Luxembourg Prime Minister Juncker.

France passed the first post downgrade bill auction test yesterday as it managed to sell EUR 1.895b of one year notes with yield down to 0.406%, from January 9's 0.454%. EFSF, which was just downgrade, will auction EUR 1.5b in six-month debt for funding bailout of Ireland and Portugal. The main challenge this week would possible by Portugal. Just after the country was downgraded to junk status, the 10 year yield rose to record high of 14.48% while spread with Bund jumped to record 12.7%. Portugal is set to sell EUR 2.5b of 3-, 6- and 11- month bills tomorrow.
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