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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #29,601
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:08am Jan 16, 2012 4:08am
Quoting krunfx
Krunfx De-Economist JAPAN VICE FM IGARASHI - NEED TO WATCH EURO CLOSELY, NOT TIME TO TAKE ACTION YET
Amazing to see that these well paid guys make the same mistake over and over again. Attack is and has been the best defense for centuries.

Hmm ... I have the feeling that they lack credibility. Lets short the Eur/Jpy the minute they do intervene in either the Uusd or Eur related pair.
  • #29,602
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:30am Jan 16, 2012 4:30am
Some advice for FM Igarashi: no need to do anything as the EU will solve its problems .... eventually. They have been trying to solve matters since 2008. What started out as a relative small Greek problem ended up in a storm, mainly due to the huge EU burocratic circus. Based upon the past EU acts we cannot but conclude that they will solve/address matter very soon ;-)

Could be that your precious Yen will be at 70 against the Usd and at 80 against the Euro by the time they have sorted out their mess. Meanwhile I will be more than happy to short whatever non-lasting intervention scheme you have in mind. lol


Jan 20 meeting among Merkel Monti Sarkozy likely delayed to early Feb: according to French official due to agenda reasons.
  • #29,603
  • Jan 16, 2012 4:50am Jan 16, 2012 4:50am
Quoting SIgurs
Amazing to see that these well paid guys make the same mistake over and over again. Attack is and has been the best defense for centuries.

Hmm ... I have the feeling that they lack credibility. Lets short the Eur/Jpy the minute they do intervene in either the Uusd or Eur related pair.

hahaha......this time maybe they try intervene againt eur...
Bismillah
  • #29,604
  • Jan 16, 2012 7:24am Jan 16, 2012 7:24am
Truth be told I am a little weary of the Yen atm, I have had more positive trades with the U/J pair than any other , especially on interventions as I have been fairly lucky to time my longs just about right before they fire the big guns. However, we all know that the previous interventions have all been nothing more than an utter waste of money and effort on the behalf of the Japanese to quell the yen's strength, so are they really this naive to keep repeating the same mistakes over and over?
They believe that speculators are mostly responsible for their woes with their currency , so what if they have in actual fact been setting a trap for traders buying the yen, getting everyone to feel comfortable and believing the predictability of the BoJ and then dropping a big bomb as the Swiss did with the Franc, that will no doubt destroy anyone's will to ever buy the Yen as a safe haven again.
I do find it very suspicious that where as in the past the Japanese have threatened repeatedly to intervene , they are now for the first time out of the blue stating that ITS NOT TIME to take action on the currency's strength .
Although I feel I am going long prematurely , on the E/J and U/J pairs , I am going to go along with my gut feeling that they are going to actually catch us off guard this time , and intervene before we expect it, will keep my positions small but nonetheless , I am going long as of now.Hope I dont end up with mud on my face lol.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,605
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:00am Jan 16, 2012 9:00am
According to this article on Reuters, there wont be an Intervention anytime soon.

Sakakibara also predicted that the dollar would likely remain weak versus the yen <JPY=>, trading between 72 and 79 yen for the next six months to a year, due to worries about Europe's debt crisis and the possibility of a double dip recession for the U.S. economy.
Japan will have to tolerate a strong yen for the time being as joint intervention to reverse the trend is unlikely, he said in a speech, adding that Japanese companies should take advantage of a strong yen by increasing overseas mergers and acquisitions.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8CG01O20120116
  • #29,606
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:06am Jan 16, 2012 9:06am
Both in the USA and Europe, traders are bidding up the Yen hedging against their own rapidly depreciating currencies and I think that the Japan Central Bank has no power to counter that trend other than try to defend the USDJPY floor at 75 until the trend finaly changes.
  • #29,607
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:13am Jan 16, 2012 9:13am
It is imposible to compare the CHF and the YEN they are totaly different and do not share the same fate when it comes to intervention. But both will have a hard time in the competitive devaluation scheme.
  • #29,608
  • Jan 16, 2012 9:46am Jan 16, 2012 9:46am
Quoting Zac
According to this article on Reuters, there wont be an Intervention anytime soon.

Sakakibara also predicted that the dollar would likely remain weak versus the yen <JPY=>, trading between 72 and 79 yen for the next six months to a year, due to worries about Europe's debt crisis and the possibility of a double dip recession for the U.S. economy.
[i]Japan will have to tolerate a strong yen for the time being as joint intervention to reverse the trend is unlikely, he said in a speech, adding that Japanese companies should take advantage...
Strange. Yen is high, think noone daubts that. Why would someone go yelling around e nothing will be done, if fear of intervention might be one of the reasons it didnt hit new lows on UJ.
Few posts before someone gave the reason and I agree on that
  • #29,609
  • Jan 16, 2012 10:46am Jan 16, 2012 10:46am
Quoting Zac
According to this article on Reuters, there wont be an Intervention anytime soon.

Sakakibara also predicted that the dollar would likely remain weak versus the yen <JPY=>, trading between 72 and 79 yen for the next six months to a year, due to worries about Europe's debt crisis and the possibility of a double dip recession for the U.S. economy.
[i]Japan will have to tolerate a strong yen for the time being as joint intervention to reverse the trend is unlikely, he said in a speech, adding that Japanese companies should take advantage of...

That article only reinforces my weariness, and is yet another "we are not going to do anything "scream, what exactly has changed for them to change their stance for a weaker yen?
Perhaps there will be no intervention, but there is definitely something up here that does not quite add up, and like it or not the Japanese economy needs a weaker Yen , desperately.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,610
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:42pm Jan 16, 2012 5:42pm
Quoting Fidza
That article only reinforces my weariness, and is yet another "we are not going to do anything "scream, what exactly has changed for them to change their stance for a weaker yen?
Perhaps there will be no intervention, but there is definitely something up here that does not quite add up, and like it or not the Japanese economy needs a weaker Yen , desperately.
You need to understand the key player behind the Strong Yen is China... some undisclosed facts that China is proping up the Yen's Strength on fears of an economic slowdown in China
they do this so that their asian counterpart looks way too expensive for trades with the west...
go lookup something about China's involvement in proping up the Yen.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #29,611
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:47pm Jan 16, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting bguguen
You need to understand the key player behind the Strong Yen is China... some undisclosed facts that China is proping up the Yen's Strength on fears of an economic slowdown in China
they do this so that their asian counterpart looks way too expensive for trades with the west...
go lookup something about China's involvement in proping up the Yen.

maybe ...no idea about that... i just think they play with their "peg" everyday only..hehehe.
Bismillah
  • #29,612
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:51pm Jan 16, 2012 5:51pm
Quoting krunfx
maybe ...no idea about that... i just think they play with their "peg" everyday only..hehehe.
imagine the day CNY is unpegged.... best bet right now is to hold Physical RMB and let it run till one day the chinese government decides to liberalise their currency market...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #29,613
  • Jan 16, 2012 6:34pm Jan 16, 2012 6:34pm
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-J...2525202012.jpg

The commercials are net long and non-commercials are net short on the yen since around May last year. As with the latest data (CFTC Commitments of Traders Report) there are no significant changes and we can expect the USDJPY to go down further.
  • #29,614
  • Jan 16, 2012 7:08pm Jan 16, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting uncleti88
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-J...2525202012.jpg

The commercials are net long and non-commercials are net short on the yen since around May last year. As with the latest data (CFTC Commitments of Traders Report) there are no significant changes and we can expect the USDJPY to go down further.
I am assuming the green is the non commercials (speculators) and red commercials(hedgers), it is my understanding that reversals happen when those lines are at their highest or lowest , and that green line looks pretty far up ,possibly at an all time high, I did consult the COT report for last Friday and have taken the info into account , however , this indicator does not mean anything in the event of interventions or breaking news that can cause immediate reversals.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,615
  • Jan 16, 2012 7:18pm Jan 16, 2012 7:18pm
Quoting bguguen
You need to understand the key player behind the Strong Yen is China... some undisclosed facts that China is proping up the Yen's Strength on fears of an economic slowdown in China
they do this so that their asian counterpart looks way too expensive for trades with the west...
go lookup something about China's involvement in proping up the Yen.
Unless the Chinese central bank is buying Yen on the market as a non commercial or hoarding vast amounts of Yen in their FX reserves , I dont see how this is possible, The reason for the high yen , as is shown on the chart posted above by uncleti88 is due to record high speculative (non commercial) long positions in the Yen, furthermore the recently agreed currency swaps between these two were only implemented recently, so I don't see the logic behind China having that much Yen in their FX reserves, before this agreement was reached.I think China is having a big enough challenge manipulating the Yuan against the USD to be fighting a currency war on two fronts.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,616
  • Jan 16, 2012 7:41pm Jan 16, 2012 7:41pm
Quoting Fidza
I am assuming the green is the non commercials (speculators) and red commercials(hedgers), it is my understanding that reversals happen when those lines are at their highest or lowest , and that green line looks pretty far up ,possibly at an all time high, I did consult the COT report for last Friday and have taken the info into account , however , this indicator does not mean anything in the event of interventions or breaking news that can cause immediate reversals.
Yup you are right, the COT doesn't tell a thing about interventions or breaking news, that is why it is not suitable to use it for short term trading. Sometimes the reportables are take position way ahead of any news releases and sometimes they are a little late. But once they change positions the trend momentum that starts is a strong one.
  • #29,617
  • Jan 16, 2012 7:49pm Jan 16, 2012 7:49pm
Quoting uncleti88
Yup you are right, the COT doesn't tell a thing about interventions or breaking news, that is why it is not suitable to use it for short term trading. Sometimes the reportables are take position way ahead of any news releases and sometimes they are a little late. But once they change positions the trend momentum that starts is a strong one.
Absolutely , the COT is one of my best friends for long term trades, I never leave home without it , but in the case of the JPY and the CHF , I just can not trust it.Thanks to the Boj and the SNB
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #29,618
  • Jan 17, 2012 12:33am Jan 17, 2012 12:33am
Yes I agree that USDJPY will continue a slow and downward trend...towards 75.xx level again....
  • #29,619
  • Jan 17, 2012 12:54am Jan 17, 2012 12:54am
Japan Azumi: Downgrade Won’t Change Japan’s EFSF Bond Buying

Japanese officials believe that buying bonds denominated in foreign
currencies will help ease the upward pressure on the yen against the
dollar and the euro.

Azumi repeated that the sharp drop in the euro will have a major
impact on Japanese exporter profits.

Asked if Tokyo will intervene to stem the yen’s rise against the
single currency, he replied, “We will watch forex market developments
carefully.”
Bismillah
  • #29,620
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:42am Jan 17, 2012 1:42am
Trying a long @ 76.60
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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