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Fail Better

  • #2,281
  • Jan 16, 2012 10:30am Jan 16, 2012 10:30am
Quoting biDc
A free and very important lesson learned here. thank you tom
Hey biDc,

could you please elaborate on the lesson? I took this trade long as I had a pending order and didn't see the strong bearish bar into the S/R level. Fortunately got out at BE on the retracement.
Was it because of the long short bar closing lower than the last swing low?
Thanks
kpt
  • #2,282
  • Jan 16, 2012 10:52am Jan 16, 2012 10:52am
Hey guys, I don't post much but still attend the webinars. Awesome stuff as always, Tom!

I'd like to share an annotated chart of an AMEX play I'm watching closely. Enjoy!

http://images.investorshub.advfn.com..._1.16.2012.png
  • #2,283
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:08am Jan 16, 2012 11:08am
Im loving the chart setup mate, looks like a blinding setup too!

Quoting jbtrading
Hey guys, I don't post much but still attend the webinars. Awesome stuff as always, Tom!

I'd like to share an annotated chart of an AMEX play I'm watching closely. Enjoy!

http://images.investorshub.advfn.com..._1.16.2012.png
  • #2,284
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:17am Jan 16, 2012 11:17am
Thank you my friend. I'll be looking to bid that $6.25 level as long as everything looks favorable when it comes around.

Cheers!

Quoting zammo
Im loving the chart setup mate, looks like a blinding setup too!
  • #2,285
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:36am Jan 16, 2012 11:36am
Quoting kptMisiu
Hey biDc,

could you please elaborate on the lesson? I took this trade long as I had a pending order and didn't see the strong bearish bar into the S/R level. Fortunately got out at BE on the retracement.
Was it because of the long short bar closing lower than the last swing low?
Thanks
kpt
I read this in a post somewhere in this thread and it was mentioned again in yesterday's webinar. If price comes close to a level but reverse before reaching, the next time it comes back a touch-trade is no go.

H1 SFP on aud/usd here. formed a nice pinbar at the same time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 121.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #2,286
  • Jan 16, 2012 2:20pm Jan 16, 2012 2:20pm
Just getting familiar with trading the SFP's..

Close to the daily range too

So far +20 pips with minimum drawdown..

This is a close up of the one just posted..so apologies for the duplicates

Working out so far - not the best day to risk any real money though with the US not trading..

happy pipping..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_sfp.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #2,287
  • Jan 16, 2012 2:25pm Jan 16, 2012 2:25pm
Wheres your target on that one GDB?

Cheers

Z
  • #2,288
  • Jan 16, 2012 2:34pm Jan 16, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting JimN
Hello WizB,
Would that be 1R risk, 0.5R profit giving you +1.5R?
If so, I will join you!
Do you have min. gap pips to enter trade?

Regards,
Jim
Risk is always 1R. Winners are only ever 0.5R. I believe I am trading the rules the same as Tom taught us. A refresher might not be a bad thing, as there maybe something I have overlooked but the rules seemed simple enough. Minimum gap is 20 pips and its only the EURUSD I trade as per Toms backtest results. You also need a broker than ideally opens at 9:30 UK time and a low spread. Im on 1pip fixed spread on an SB account in the UK

Last nights was a winner. So thats makes 8/10 now A strike rate like I have never expereinced before.

Thanks Tom

Wiz
  • #2,289
  • Jan 16, 2012 5:27pm Jan 16, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting wizardblue
Risk is always 1R. Winners are only ever 0.5R. I believe I am trading the rules the same as Tom taught us. A refresher might not be a bad thing, as there maybe something I have overlooked but the rules seemed simple enough. Minimum gap is 20 pips and its only the EURUSD I trade as per Toms backtest results. You also need a broker than ideally opens at 9:30 UK time and a low spread. Im on 1pip fixed spread on an SB account in the UK

Last nights was a winner. So thats makes 8/10 now A strike rate like I have never expereinced before.

Thanks...
Sheet I may have to start trading these things
  • #2,290
  • Jan 16, 2012 11:34pm Jan 16, 2012 11:34pm
Quoting human2
Hi Rivercrosser, Tom went through 3 trades from last week. These were talked about last week here & twitter, gbpusd, crude, bund. I didn't take notes but talked again about importance of D1 bias to guide you. If it is not with you get out at FTA. Next Sunday is the paid webinar.

Thank you so much Human2!
  • #2,291
  • Jan 17, 2012 12:11am Jan 17, 2012 12:11am
Still long GBP/USD SFP trade.

Have my sight set on 1.5410
  • #2,292
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:50am Jan 17, 2012 1:50am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie.gif Size: 16 KB


Alrite guys, I see Aussies broke through the Daily resistance this morning. Waiting for a RT as it comes back for a bounce also on the declining trendline as well....

If you look at the hourly chart though its done a 'buttkiss' not long after the break...

Would the best play to be to scratch this setup because of that?

Apologies about the levels, theyre probably not exactly correct, hoping the wiz does a paid webinar on levels first as I still havent grasped the exact point to put them!

Cheers

Z
  • #2,293
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:16am Jan 17, 2012 2:16am
watching that 100.1 level on crude tom?

i drew in a fib to match 38.2% at that level and see if price will reach that swing high
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 121.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #2,294
  • Jan 17, 2012 2:40am Jan 17, 2012 2:40am
I am also watching this one Zammo, as long as it gives us some room before the rounded RT i will be looking for an entry.


Quoting zammo
Attachment

Alrite guys, I see Aussies broke through the Daily resistance this morning. Waiting for a RT as it comes back for a bounce also on the declining trendline as well....

If you look at the hourly chart though its done a 'buttkiss' not long after the break...

Would the best play to be to scratch this setup because of that?

Apologies about the levels, theyre probably not exactly correct, hoping the wiz does a paid webinar on levels first as I still havent grasped the exact point to put them!

Cheers

Z
  • #2,295
  • Jan 17, 2012 4:26am Jan 17, 2012 4:26am
Some charts i think might be interesting:

AU = retest of 1.0380 area for long.
EU = short @ 1.2810 area last used as support.
Uchf - long on break and retest of 0.9570 ?
UJ = if we get more space to short @ 76.65 on retest but this one might now drop.

Any comments??
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #2,296
  • Jan 17, 2012 4:31am Jan 17, 2012 4:31am
euro stoxx at a major D1 S/R level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurostoxx.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #2,297
  • Jan 17, 2012 4:58am Jan 17, 2012 4:58am
Quoting zammo
Attachment

Alrite guys, I see Aussies broke through the Daily resistance this morning. Waiting for a RT as it comes back for a bounce also on the declining trendline as well....

If you look at the hourly chart though its done a 'buttkiss' not long after the break...

Would the best play to be to scratch this setup because of that?

Apologies about the levels, theyre probably not exactly correct, hoping the wiz does a paid webinar on levels first as I still havent grasped the exact point to put them!

Cheers

Z
My level is drawn at 1.0384 and there doesn’t appear to be a buttkiss at that level.

This looks like a nice setup, but my concern with it is that the breakout has stalled at the descending trendline, and any retest and bounce back off the level may well get stuck under the trendline, giving an R:R of less than 1, and decreasing fast as time goes on. So I won’t be taking this for the time being.

Now if the price breaks out from the trendline before retesting the level later this week, then I would be very interested as then we will have potential confluence between the level and the trendline.
  • #2,298
  • Jan 17, 2012 3:43pm Jan 17, 2012 3:43pm
I'm still staying out of the AUD trade as I mentioned earlier because of the descending trendline, but the setup is looking interesting.

On the H1 there has been a deep retrace below the level but has now turned and looks as though it might move upwards. If I had taken this I probably just about wouldn't have been stopped out yet as I would have wanted my stop below Friday's high on the H1.

However, look at the D1 and there is a possibility of an SFP forming. If that happens, there is probably a good case to look to go short.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-01-17 aud-usd h1.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-01-17 aud-usd d1.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #2,299
  • Jan 17, 2012 4:13pm Jan 17, 2012 4:13pm
SFP STANDS FOR ???
FTA STANDS FOR ???

Can someone just give a description for the abreviations mentioned in this thread. There aare more so I would apreciate a list so that one can get an idea what is meant when the abreviations are used..

Thanks in advance

Regards
  • #2,300
  • Jan 17, 2012 4:26pm Jan 17, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting banco
SFP STANDS FOR ???
FTA STANDS FOR ???

Can someone just give a description for the abreviations mentioned in this thread. There aare more so I would apreciate a list so that one can get an idea what is meant when the abreviations are used..

Thanks in advance

Regards
SFP STANDS FOR Swing Failure Pattern
FTA STANDS FOR First Trouble Area

These are mentioned in the thread. Read every post. Well worth it.
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