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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #19,161
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:04pm Jan 12, 2012 2:04pm
Inserted Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ng5-VUDcjJ8
  • #19,162
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:10pm Jan 12, 2012 2:10pm
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/0...s-not-too-bad/

Snippet:

While the media was trumpeting a miss on retail sales, the truth, as usual, was somewhat different than the media message. The major media outlets reported that a 0.1% gain missed analysts’ consensus estimate of a gain of 0.3% for the month of December. As usual, the report was stated in seasonally adjusted terms, which often has nothing to do with reality. The reality is that retail sales were up by 15.7% month to month, and 6.2% year over year in December.

Before you say “Wow,” take a deep breath. December is always up big versus November. That’s why the economists apply a seasonal adjustment. The problem is that the adjustment may obscure what’s really going on. That’s why I look at total sales before adjustment and compare that to the month to month change in prior years. The December 2011 increase of 15.6% compares with 16.6% in December 2010 and 18% in December 2009. So it does show some slowing.

It’s also important to adjust for changing price levels in order to see just how much of the year to year change is “real”. Adjusted for inflation, the real gain in sales was only 2.3%, not 6.2%.

I like to subtract gasoline sales. Gas prices are volatile and gas sales account for nearly 10% of total retail sales.
  • #19,163
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:13pm Jan 12, 2012 2:13pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80A15520120111
  • #19,164
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:22pm Jan 12, 2012 2:22pm
you look at a good short time, trade the euro-usd.
what you must watch on the chart?
Quoting knoholygrail
My only focus now is going short EUR/USD at the right moment. That moment might come around 2:00 AM EST to 6:00 AM EST on Friday.

Some people do not trade on Friday's. I want to see if EUR/USD can BREAK 1.2845 before I consider a change in my present Trade Plan.

Tomorrow is another day and remember there is always another day trading forex. Only make a trade when you think you have an edge and use Stop Loss in case you are wrong. We are all wrong occasionally and that is part of letting go and move to another Trade Plan with a clear mind and...
  • #19,165
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:23pm Jan 12, 2012 2:23pm
well..........i for once think that The Euro is headed for a correction due to the injected optimism by the ECB and the Success of bond purchases, also the yields decreased.

ECB is starting to be more aggressive in intervening in the markets with this current president.

Swap lines
Loans to the tone of 400+ billion euros
lowering interest rates.
I honestly think there will be more sovereign debt purchases and further liquidity offers from ECB.

Greece will default but seems like the tone has changed from "no it wont" to " it wont be so bad when the default indeed happens"
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #19,166
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:25pm Jan 12, 2012 2:25pm
basically the big wild card is IRAN, and the prices of oil that continue to rise.

The US is going about this the wrong way, the US economy is slowly gaining traction despite the numbers offered here by kno

however increasing cost in oil will cut our legs from under us, and europe will surely suffer as well.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #19,167
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:28pm Jan 12, 2012 2:28pm
Quoting the redlion
well..........i for once think that The Euro is headed for a correction due to the injected optimism by the ECB and the Success of bond purchases, also the yields decreased.

ECB is starting to be more aggressive in intervening in the markets with this current president.

Swap lines
Loans to the tone of 400+ billion euros
lowering interest rates.
I honestly think there will be more sovereign debt purchases and further liquidity offers from ECB.

Greece will default but seems like the tone has changed from "no it wont" to " it wont be so bad when...
No doubt the Euro is way over due for a correction. 750 pips would be reasonable. However everything you are referring to that they are doing to stabilize the market is in fact debasing their currency. So in reality they are replacing lack of confidence with a whole lot of extra money.

In other words, their fix is something that should drive the Euro down.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #19,168
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:31pm Jan 12, 2012 2:31pm
Quoting AaronWard
No doubt the Euro is way over due for a correction. 750 pips would be reasonable. However everything you are referring to that they are doing to stabilize the market is in fact debasing their currency. So in reality they are replacing lack of confidence with a whole lot of extra money.

In other words, their fix is something that should drive the Euro down.
true....except is precisely what investor, credit rating agencies, and the markets have been asking for.............so it is seen as positive.

remember Dhragi basically states that EZ is suffering from lack of liquidity, that was freezing credit markets, and a credit crunch is what is perceived to be the eminent threat............yeah ignore the massive debts.

by the way debasing the currency as you have stated is a good short term fix, as it boost exports, debases the debt as well.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #19,169
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:31pm Jan 12, 2012 2:31pm
Quoting AaronWard
No doubt the Euro is way over due for a correction. 750 pips would be reasonable. However everything you are referring to that they are doing to stabilize the market is in fact debasing their currency. So in reality they are replacing lack of confidence with a whole lot of extra money.

In other words, their fix is something that should drive the Euro down.
Hmmm ... kind of sounds like how the US works.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #19,170
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:35pm Jan 12, 2012 2:35pm
the market spoke today, i took a small loss as i thought the bond sales would fail and further drag this down. i was wrong

basically in the press conference and by keeping rates at 1% the ECB is signaling their commitment to actively palliate this "liquidity crisis"

the markets cheered that with equities, and Euro going higher.

1.2660 has been support, and we have been sort of ranging from 1.28 to 1.2660 after a big drop the market is looking for opportunities to long.

as you yourself know fx market looks for equilibrium
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #19,171
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:38pm Jan 12, 2012 2:38pm
Quoting stevebalmmer
you look at a good short time, trade the euro-usd.
what you must watch on the chart?
I wake up around 2:00 AM EST in Montreal and I first see the price of EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and the Price of Gold. I see what news comes out that day. I watch CNBC to see Europe Futures and Dow Futures.

Then I see where I might short it only after I watch the patten between 2:00 AM to 3:00 AM EST. I look at my 5 Minute MarketScope Chart and my Oanda 15 Minute Chart and then I wait for the Europe open.

Before Then I have nothing to decide. My View of Resistance now is 1.2845 so that is an important benchmark for me. The Trend is down and there is GREAT DANGER now with the Greece Debt Situation. I would NEVER TRY a Long now... NEVER...

I cannot think what could drive EUR/USD UP 200 PIPS.
  • #19,172
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:38pm Jan 12, 2012 2:38pm
Quoting spzd
Hmmm ... kind of sounds like how the US works.
that is Keynesian economics for you.

NO DEFLATION
NO CORRECTION

throw money at it, inflate bubbles, if bubbles burst throw more money at it.

bail out the mess, destroy the currency to re set the debts, inflation....to help cheat lenders through loss in purchasing power.

it's all a bunch of crap, but we being small fish take what we get
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #19,173
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:39pm Jan 12, 2012 2:39pm
I'm giving myself the tarnished silver star for my class performance today.

This recent +50 or so, IMO, was a combination of positive Euro-negative USD fundamentals and TA coming together. Went long just above the daily pivot at 1.2725.

With that last move up, everything is pretty much out of balance now so it should go into a consolidation period. Many times this period will move price in the opposite direction from where it peaked, but not always a lot. Because of this consolidation it will relieve some of the over bought pressure. Also becuse it's out of balance this is more than likely the extent of any corrective move up for the time being.
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Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #19,174
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:41pm Jan 12, 2012 2:41pm
Quoting the redlion
that is Keynesian economics for you.

NO DEFLATION
NO CORRECTION

throw money at it, inflate bubbles, if bubbles burst throw more money at it.

bail out the mess, destroy the currency to re set the debts, inflation....to help cheat lenders through loss in purchasing power.

it's all a bunch of crap, but we being small fish take what we get
Very true. And the only one of our potential leaders to espouse the Austrian school of economic thought is considered a kook. Everyone seems to want to be a socialist because it's the easy way out.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #19,175
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:43pm Jan 12, 2012 2:43pm
Quoting spzd
I'm giving myself the tarnished silver star for my class performance today.

This recent +50 or so, IMO, was a combination of positive Euro-negative USD fundamentals and TA coming together. Went long just above the daily pivot at 1.2725.

[color=darkorange]With that last move up, everything is pretty much out of balance now so it should go into a consolidation period. Many times this period will move price in the opposite direction from where it peaked, but not always a lot. Because of this consolidation it will relieve...
In My Opinion This Is How To Use Technicals...

It shows in picture form what has happened. What might happen is possible however not guaranteed.

New Facts change things along with Perceptions. Let Us See Where EUR/USD is at 10:00 PM EST tonight. GMT + 5
  • #19,176
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:44pm Jan 12, 2012 2:44pm
ok, i looked at tomorrow, europe open,, look at news. what is pattern?
Quoting knoholygrail
I wake up around 2:00 AM EST in Montreal and I first see the price of EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and the Price of Gold. I see what news comes out that day. I watch CNBC to see Europe Futures and Dow Futures.

Then I see where I might short it only after I watch the patten between 2:00 AM to 3:00 AM EST. I look at my 5 Minute MarketScope Chart and my Oanda 15 Minute Chart and then I wait for the Europe open.

Before Then I have nothing to decide. My View of Resistance now is 1.2845 so that is an important benchmark for me. The Trend is down and there...
  • #19,177
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:46pm Jan 12, 2012 2:46pm
Ron Paul has solid ideas, but that means being self responsible.

of course we dont want that.......we want government to take care of us when we get older. We want free health care, free education, free food stamps, free. free , free.

We have the RIGHT to steal from other people and distribute it so we can feel like we did some social justice.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #19,178
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:47pm Jan 12, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting knoholygrail
In My Opinion This Is How To Use Technicals...

It shows in picture form what has happened. What might happen is possible however not guaranteed.

New Facts change things along with Perceptions. Let Us See Where EUR/USD is at 10:00 PM EST tonight. GMT + 5
Right there is a very important statement. If it wasn't for how the data came out today that pivot would have been cut through like the proverbial hot knife through butter.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #19,179
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:50pm Jan 12, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting the redlion
Ron Paul has solid ideas, but that means being self responsible.

of course we dont want that.......we want government to take care of us when we get older. We want free health care, free education, free food stamps, free. free , free.

We have the RIGHT to steal from other people and distribute it so we can feel like we did some social justice.
No argument from me. This country has strayed so far from it's principals I'm not too sure we will ever get back.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #19,180
  • Edited 3:35pm Jan 12, 2012 3:32pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting stevebalmmer
ok, i looked at tomorrow, europe open,, look at news. what is pattern?
Please KEEP my SECRET !!!

This is what usually happens before the Europe Open and the North American Open.

People like us wake up all over the world. They come to websites like Forex Factory or they just trade on their own. Very few full time professional traders come here except for PipTrapper and PipKiller. I apoligize if I left anyone out here. The last comment is just made to make a point. Why would I come here ? Because of PipTrapper and many good people here. I said good people not necessarily good traders as yet.

I was off topic so back to the SECRET I discovered a few years ago. I have a few more however this one has been revealed before on this thread.

We all agree that at least 85% to 95% of ALL Retail Traders end up losing over a period of say 6 months. There are exceptions for sure on this thread.

I am one of them as I earn over 5% each and every month I trade.

As the price of EUR/USD is either pushed UP or Down before the 2:00 AM Pre Open the large trading desks come to work. They have a job to do and it is to buy and sell currencies for their clients. Others trade for profits for the firm they work for.

Who do you think has the EDGE ? The Retail Traders or the Currency Houses who can move markets with one Five Billion Dollar Order to Sell EUR/USD and Buy Gold or Swiss Franc.

So we have a good set up. By the time the markets open at 3:00 AM EST or 8:00 GMT the Markets as they move UP OR DOWN cause the money to flow in and out of all the Asset Classes. Look at what happened today.

Then at about 6:00 AM To 7:00 AM EST the same situation repeats with CNBC Talking Heads and some real experts like Bill Gross and Jim Rogers being interviewed.

Now we have Europe on Board and at 8:30 AM we have news. At 10:00 AM EST there is Option Expiry. North America opens at 9:30 AM and at 11:30 AM Europe goes home and by NOON they are all gone. Look at what happened today.

Watch these time zones for yourself to look for repeating patterns and PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE do not tell anyone about our Sectet. OK ? Thanks. Kno ... That Is I...
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