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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #297,521
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:38am Jan 12, 2012 2:38am
Quoting Fudomyo
5260 is S1 on the intraday. But we could easily see 5200 WS2 or lower. If you look at the monthly 4215/6745 fib, 61.8% is sitting very close to the monthly LTL in this area. Watching EU for the lead here on the next leg. It's forming a temporary bottom 2700 area between the DO and DP. No break out yet. We may move up w/ EU if it wants to test 2750. USDX at the resistance line as well.

more patience, coffee, a nap, not sure...lol
thx for the insight.... but i would disagree on the part about watching EU to determine GU... as of late GU has a mind of its own.... watching US30, UK 100 and USDX to look at GBPUSD...
BIS seen Selling and Buying EURUSD... so its pretty rangebounded or volatile to watch EURUSD now to determine what the Next move on GU would be...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,522
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:38am Jan 12, 2012 2:38am
G/M

Yesterday's fall resulted in a daily t/f bearish thrust candle breeching and closing @/around Weekly S1, below the daily ascending trend line to the downside. Today so far has seen some downside follow thru on yesterday's downside move to the bottom of the previous weekly/daily swing lo zone extending down to 5270, where it has found some demand.

Price remains below the Mthly, Wkly and Dly Pivots so far today and the downside continues to look vulnerable.

Immediately @//below the current daily lo (5278):

5315- 5270 prev Weekly/Daily sw lo zone
5261 Daily S1 @/around
5196 Weekly S2 @/around/Daily S2 @/around
5189 61.8% 4225-6746
[ 5148 Monthly S2 @/around
[ 5155-40 ascending Monthly/Weekly t/f trend line on this daily candle
5082 Daily S3 @/around
5034-4945 prev weekly sw lo zone incl 5017 Weekly R3 @/around
4935 Monthly S3 @/around

Immediately above current price per current near-term 1hr screenshot below with more upside fibs of the main moves down from 6165 on the 4hr and daily charts, ie not shown on 1hr below.

Uk data at 0930 gmt and of course the Uk Boe Mpc rate and Qe announce at 12 noon gmt.

G/L
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ex member
  • #297,523
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:40am Jan 12, 2012 2:40am
Quoting bguguen
Dont worry too much buddy, people make mistakes, as long as you learn from it you'll do fine... for me...
I have 3 years of economics major on my belt and time to time i still cant quite figure out market's movement, until you start having the mindset used by the big boys (the Hedgefund managers, Big Banks like Goldman Sachs and Central bankers)
you need to realise the market is heavily manipulated by these guys... Fundamental only gives you a general direciton to where the market is headed... but technicals can shomehow reveal where the big boys...
I use both tech and fun, as one should but I always looked at tech as more of a self fulfilling kind of thing. But you're saying you think the big boys manipulate the markets just to get price to certain tech levels? I mean, I have no doubt that their actions DO manipulate the markets but I always thought that whenever they DO manipulate, that they'd send price in whatever direction they aimed for REGARDLESS of what the average Joe trader thinks the next level or direction should be. If only there were some kind of Level II type way of trading like there is in the stock market. The type that shows depth. At least, I'm ASSUMING that there is none. I may be wrong. I think I'll search around for it now.
  • #297,524
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:47am Jan 12, 2012 2:47am
Buy GBPUSD on dips
  • #297,525
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:49am Jan 12, 2012 2:49am
Quoting shocfacter
I use both tech and fun, as one should but I always looked at tech as more of a self fulfilling kind of thing. But you're saying you think the big boys manipulate the markets just to get price to certain tech levels? I mean, I have no doubt that their actions DO manipulate the markets but I always thought that whenever they DO manipulate, that they'd send price in whatever direction they aimed for REGARDLESS of what the average Joe trader thinks the next level or direction should be. If only there were some kind of Level II type way of trading like...
Well if you are a corporate forex trader, there are way to find out where other big banks are placing their orders and stuff and you can easily trade it to your advantage...
heres the thing though... Support and resistance levels and Fib points are merely Point of Interest... you are right in a sense that big boys do manipulate to wherever they want... however what you dont realise is that what big boys are doing to manipulate the market for is to FILL ORDERS, LARGE corporate orders waiting to be triggered... thats why when you see BIG boys moving the market towards a direction which doesnt make sense... once they are done... it goes the other way once all the Resisting forces are WIPED off... they hit the retail traders or some other smaller bank Trade SL, and being able to trigger their trade so there is literally no more resistance going against their triggered trade since they all got SLed...
however the more resistant or the more amount of orders there are... the more money the big boys would need to push agains them... thats why they like to do it during illiquid times like ASIA, during those time Smaller amoung of money can have a larger effect on the forex market...
im not gona get all technical but Big boys do meet resistance when they try to push/manipulate, it is whether if they are willing to throw that amount of money to push thorugh and to kill these resisting force...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,526
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:50am Jan 12, 2012 2:50am
Quoting shocfacter
Yes but this is what it says when you click on it's info button:


Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;

That has to be a mistake by FF then.

That info isn't pertaining to the actual release of the data on Wed 11th .

FF is simply stating that an Actual figure that is better than forecast would be positive for the currency . That data on Wednesday came in worse , so hence the negative move . Just remember we're talking Deficit numbers here NOT Surplus .
  • #297,527
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:51am Jan 12, 2012 2:51am
that's some call considering current bearishness and potentially market moving Uk data in 40mins !! On your side though are the re-test and demand found at bottom of the previous weekly/daily swing lo that extends down to 5270 and patterns of bullish divergence extending up from 1min then 15m, 30m, 1hr. 1min shown below by way of eg.

G/L

Quoting Repco
Buy GBPUSD on dips
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ex member
  • #297,528
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:52am Jan 12, 2012 2:52am
Quoting Repco
Buy GBPUSD on dips
Bad idea buddy...5270 is the next level of support ont he GBPUSD... if i were you id wait for a confirmation of a rebound before entering long... because a break below 5270 opens way to 4200 in GBPUSD... im not joking....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,529
  • Jan 12, 2012 2:54am Jan 12, 2012 2:54am
Quoting bbmac
that's some call considering current bearishness and potentially market moving Uk data in 40mins !! On your side though are the re-test and demand found at bottom of the previous weekly/daily swing lo that extends down to 5270 and patterns of bullish divergence extending up from 1min then 15m, 30m, 1hr. 1min shown below by way of eg.

G/L
i called his bluff immediately.... unless theres confirmation of a rebound i aint shorting this thing.... break 5270, it opens way to 4200 man...

Buy on dips?! seriously?? we are having lower lows dude...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,530
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:00am Jan 12, 2012 3:00am
Quoting bguguen
Bad idea buddy...5270 is the next level of support ont he GBPUSD... if i were you id wait for a confirmation of a rebound before entering long... because a break below 5270 opens way to 4200 in GBPUSD... im not joking....
I trade base on volume, and I closed my EURUSD and AUDUSD long...
  • #297,531
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:03am Jan 12, 2012 3:03am
Is cable showing sign for a big drop today post news release as what happened back on 06-Oct-2011......
  • #297,532
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:04am Jan 12, 2012 3:04am
Quoting bguguen
Well if you are a corporate forex trader, there are way to find out where other big banks are placing their orders and stuff and you can easily trade it to your advantage...
heres the thing though... Support and resistance levels and Fib points are merely Point of Interest... you are right in a sense that big boys do manipulate to wherever they want... however what you dont realise is that what big boys are doing to manipulate the market for is to FILL ORDERS, LARGE corporate orders waiting to be triggered... thats why when you see BIG boys moving...
Humm. Interesting. And only the big boys have access to this info? Makes me want to go on a quest to find it for MY use lol.
  • #297,533
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:04am Jan 12, 2012 3:04am
Quoting Repco
I trade base on volume, and I closed my EURUSD and AUDUSD long...
Just because Volume PICKED up on a Green/Up candle on the H1 or whatever time frame you are looking at is NO SIGNAL for LONG dude... it just means theres more trade coming in... could be slight TAKE profit on the existing shorts that lead to a slight UP candle.... good god i hope you are not trading like this on other pairs but whatever you mean trade base on volume is quite the juvenile trade there....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,534
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:06am Jan 12, 2012 3:06am
Quoting shocfacter
Humm. Interesting. And only the big boys have access to this info? Makes me want to go on a quest to find it for MY use lol.
its Brokers and big boys who have dealers at the interbank market who gets to have these data feed live from the trading floor itself... atleast thats what i think... it sure as hell looks like it for the guys at www.forexlive.com...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,535
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:10am Jan 12, 2012 3:10am
Quoting Forexgain
Is cable showing sign for a big drop today post news release as what happened back on 06-Oct-2011......
Dependent on the news release... if its better than expected... i have a slight feeling GBPUSD may find support at 1.5270 and consolidate there for a while... as GBP rises in value... USD is also rising in value due to risk aversion from fear of global recession...
if news release is WORSE than expected/Misses the expected value USD is still gona go up in value but GBP will fall/depreciate... the GBPUSD would probably slice through 5270 and post a new low...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,536
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:10am Jan 12, 2012 3:10am
Quoting bguguen
Just because Volume PICKED up on a Green/Up candle on the H1 or whatever time frame you are looking at is NO SIGNAL for LONG dude... it just means theres more trade coming in... could be slight TAKE profit on the existing shorts that lead to a slight UP candle.... good god i hope you are not trading like this on other pairs but whatever you mean trade base on volume is quite the juvenile trade there....

You could...But you just know it lol...Yes I trade like that on other pairs too...I can see the order book on Bloomberg Terminal and EBS Platform
  • #297,537
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:11am Jan 12, 2012 3:11am
Quoting Balmain Boy
That info isn't pertaining to the actual release of the data on Wed 11th .

FF is simply stating that an Actual figure that is better than forecast would be positive for the currency . That data on Wednesday came in worse , so hence the negative move . Just remember we're talking Deficit numbers here NOT Surplus .
Lol. I know now. It just wasn't making it through my membrane earlier. Lol.
  • #297,538
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:12am Jan 12, 2012 3:12am
Quoting bguguen
Holy shit dude... im charting like a pro... im getting the same support levels as these guys wtf?!

http://0.gravatar.com/avatar/c336bf8...0&d=retro&r=PG
Cable slips in early European trade

Written by Gerry Davies
January 12, 2012 at 07:51 GMT

Down at 1.5295 from around 1.5320 when I parked my bum. Source reports...
  • #297,539
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:13am Jan 12, 2012 3:13am
Quoting Repco
You could...But you just know it lol...Yes I trade like that on other pairs too...I can see the order book on Bloomberg Terminal and EBS Platform
Wow then... wishing you the best... and hoping the 1500 USD per month premium on Bloomberg terminal is money well spent lol...
all the best to you...
but still word of advice to you... watch out for the news releases...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #297,540
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:18am Jan 12, 2012 3:18am
Quoting shocfacter
Humm. Interesting. And only the big boys have access to this info? Makes me want to go on a quest to find it for MY use lol.
only if you have the order book. retail has no access to it. (even with Level 1) but even so, with FX there's no centralized exchange or trading floor, so volume is irrelevant. Spot FX is a decentralized market, so you can have a wide liquidity pool, but never all the information. if you're trading FX futures on the ICE or CME then volume is more relevant because it's through a centralized exchange.

shading, black pools, HST all distort tick volume as well.
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