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  • #29,541
  • Jan 11, 2012 6:40am Jan 11, 2012 6:40am
Quoting krunfx
at this point i want to bold sumthing that for me is more interesting part...

the carry trade

if u realize....the unwinding of yen carry is when yen is about 125....till now...so from 2008 us had cut the rate.....


both of them have lower rate....but US get the safe-haven status late than yen after fed cut rate..now seem like trader hold more yen than usd...thats why we see it is so hard to "pull out" the speculator from their position...
A problem the Japanese not only created, they also 'forgot' to tackle it in time. To handle this monster now will be much harder, especially when you see the way the Boj is trying to handle the Yen appreciation.

Credibility is the name of this game ... sorry for them (companies/economy/employees) Boj did too little too late.

===
Japan may lose 600,000 jobs if the yen stays at current levels, pushing carmakers to shift production overseas, according to a Nov. 21 report compiled by Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yukio Edano and posted on the website of the National Policy Unit that reports to Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda.
====



Just my 2 cents !
  • #29,542
  • Jan 11, 2012 6:43am Jan 11, 2012 6:43am
Quoting Warwick
Are you sure your not heavily long?
Why would I wanna be long ?
  • #29,543
  • Jan 11, 2012 7:09am Jan 11, 2012 7:09am
Quoting SIgurs
A problem the Japanese not only created, they also 'forgot' to tackle it in time. To handle this monster now will be much harder, especially when you see the way the Boj is trying to handle the Yen appreciation.

Credibility is the name of this game ... sorry for them (companies/economy/employees) Boj did too little too late.

===
Japan may lose 600,000 jobs if the yen stays at current levels, pushing carmakers to shift production overseas, according to a Nov. 21 report compiled by Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yukio Edano and...
This is one of the Japan Porn Industry Problem also
Their DVD's would be difficult to export abroad,Losing competition now with some country!I am hope Maria Ozawa and Sola Aoi not losing their Job..
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,544
  • Jan 11, 2012 7:22am Jan 11, 2012 7:22am
Quoting FXMindset
I hope Maria Ozawa and Sola Aoi not losing their Job..
So that's the kind of guy you are
  • #29,545
  • Jan 11, 2012 7:30am Jan 11, 2012 7:30am
Quoting SIgurs
So that's the kind of guy you are
Its a Normal guy
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,546
  • Jan 11, 2012 9:55am Jan 11, 2012 9:55am
Usdollar index is up firmly, yet the Usd/Jpy isn't able to move up more than just a few pips. Could it be that the safe haven principle is still valid ?

Hmmm ... let's see, how can Boj/Azumi solve this ongoing devastating threat to the Japanese economy ? Oops, they can't, unless they ... ;-)

Wonder what the results of the overseas trips are ... bet they didn't get any tangible support to help them out of their misery.
  • #29,547
  • Jan 11, 2012 10:37am Jan 11, 2012 10:37am
Quoting SIgurs
Usdollar index is up firmly, yet the Usd/Jpy isn't able to move up more than just a few pips. Could it be that the safe haven principle is still valid ?

Hmmm ... let's see, how can Boj/Azumi solve this ongoing devastating threat to the Japanese economy ? Oops, they can't, unless they ... ;-)

Wonder what the results of the overseas trips are ... bet they didn't get any tangible support to help them out of their misery.
DJ Dollar Index Rises To Highest Since Sept. 2010

What about the Usd/Jpy ? What's it gonna be Boj ... capitulate and run or fight ? Bet Geithner and SNB gave you some good advise ;-)
  • #29,548
  • Jan 11, 2012 11:39am Jan 11, 2012 11:39am
Quoting SIgurs
Usdollar index is up firmly, yet the Usd/Jpy isn't able to move up more than just a few pips. Could it be that the safe haven principle is still valid ?

Hmmm ... let's see, how can Boj/Azumi solve this ongoing devastating threat to the Japanese economy ? Oops, they can't, unless they ... ;-)

Wonder what the results of the overseas trips are ... bet they didn't get any tangible support to help them out of their misery.
This is the problem since earlier,Sadly USD strenght doesnt help this pairs at all...
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,549
  • Jan 11, 2012 12:46pm Jan 11, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting FXMindset
This is the problem since earlier,Sadly USD strenght doesnt help this pairs at all...
Perception and net return are key. Intervention therefore will not have lasting effects as long as these issues are not tackled.
  • #29,550
  • Jan 11, 2012 12:58pm Jan 11, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting SIgurs
Perception and net return are key. Intervention therefore will not have lasting effects as long as these issues are not tackled.
SIgurs,

Do you think Peg is the only way or ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,551
  • Jan 11, 2012 1:04pm Jan 11, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting FXMindset
SIgurs,

Do you think Peg is the only way or ?
Either Peg or wait for fundamentals to change. Sofar intervention only bought time, no lasting relief for exporters/companies. So, in that respect, intervention seems like carrying water to the sea.

Must add that waiting to intervene till price drops to around previous intervention point doesnt add to a CB's credibility ... are they really serious about trying to depreciate the Yen or are they just pretending ?
  • #29,552
  • Jan 11, 2012 1:10pm Jan 11, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting SIgurs
Either Peg or wait for fundamentals to change. Sofar intervention only bought time, no lasting relief for exporters/companies. So, in that respect, intervention seems like carrying water to the sea.

Must add that waiting to intervene till price dropped to around previous intervention point doesnt add to a CB's credibility ... are they really serious about trying to depreciate the Yen ?
am believe Japanese doesnt like a fool people but I wondered why they keep repeated the same mistakes over and over again..
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #29,553
  • Jan 11, 2012 1:19pm Jan 11, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting SIgurs
Either Peg or wait for fundamentals to change. Sofar intervention only bought time, no lasting relief for exporters/companies. So, in that respect, intervention seems like carrying water to the sea.

Must add that waiting to intervene till price drops to around previous intervention point doesnt add to a CB's credibility ... are they really serious about trying to depreciate the Yen or are they just pretending ?
A remark regarding US Beige Book: "permanent hiring as been "limited"; price pressures were "quite limited".

To me, if this climate maintains its current course or worsens (it can't get much better for longer), Fed will announce QE, in form of QE1.

Now, what would that do for the Usd/Jpy pair ?

So, imo, Japanese need to get their act together ASAP as relying on others to do the work/efforts for you will NOT work !
  • #29,554
  • Jan 11, 2012 1:39pm Jan 11, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting SIgurs
Either Peg or wait for fundamentals to change. Sofar intervention only bought time, no lasting relief for exporters/companies. So, in that respect, intervention seems like carrying water to the sea.

Must add that waiting to intervene till price drops to around previous intervention point doesnt add to a CB's credibility ... are they really serious about trying to depreciate the Yen or are they just pretending ?
IMO - They let it go too far too fast, the Yen that is.

At this point intervention on their part is akin to "raising" an entire market. It is no secret that a great deal of existing and pending orders are HEAVILY short the yen. Intervening only seems to line the pockets of speculators - Whey then would Japan be willing to line the pockets of an over-leveraged trader who merely thinks of the killing he'd make if the BOJ steps in again?

As I've stated on numerous occasions - the market needs re-balancing (for Yen contracts at least) Naturally - this involves flushing out weak myopic traders.

Unless Japan is willing to spend ~25% of it's reserves to make speculators rich - the latter option seems most efficient and they get far more bang for their buck.

To get the ball rolling - they should engage in "inverse-intervention". The longer they drag this out, the more expensive this ordeal becomes for them.
  • #29,555
  • Jan 11, 2012 2:04pm Jan 11, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting Warwick
Unless Japan is willing to spend ~25% of it's reserves to make speculators rich ...
In my opinion for any government's institution this shouldn't be an argument.

It's true that those traders who are expecting intervention will get some cash in their pockets.
Why are they expecting it? Because Yen is too strong and weakening it is crucial for Japan's economy.
And if it's crucial then why would BoJ care who else besides people of Japan will make any good out of it?

BoJ could also ignore strong Yen and local exporters because if BoJ will act some manufacturers will become even richer.

The main argument is will it be better for Japan or not.

I don't understand why BoJ doesn't try to defend anything after intervention like SNB. It's true that it will cost more for BoJ but doesn't Japan have deeper pockets then Switzerland?
  • #29,556
  • Jan 11, 2012 2:19pm Jan 11, 2012 2:19pm
Quoting aragami
In my opinion for any government's institution this shouldn't be an argument.

It's true that those traders who are expecting intervention will get some cash in their pockets.
Why are they expecting it? Because Yen is too strong and weakening it is crucial for Japan's economy.
And if it's crucial then why would BoJ care who else besides people of Japan will make any good out of it?

BoJ could also ignore strong Yen and local exporters because if BoJ will act some manufacturers will become even richer.

The main argument is will it be better...
Fair enough - But of course, how expensive an intervention operation is, is incredibly important. the SNB caught hell some time ago for their intervention conquests - even more interesting, their willingness to "spend unlimited amounts of money" to defend their peg

At whose expense? The Swiss?

Although the continued strengthening of the Yen is of major concern for Japan, they've got quite a list of equally important issues.

This of course is very simplistic. There exists a quantitative case against intervention (en masse)....

Maybe I'm not the kind of guy who throws money at his enemies to make them go away...
  • #29,557
  • Jan 11, 2012 2:31pm Jan 11, 2012 2:31pm
Quoting aragami
In my opinion for any government's institution this shouldn't be an argument.

It's true that those traders who are expecting intervention will get some cash in their pockets.
Why are they expecting it? Because Yen is too strong and weakening it is crucial for Japan's economy.
And if it's crucial then why would BoJ care who else besides people of Japan will make any good out of it?

BoJ could also ignore strong Yen and local exporters because if BoJ will act some manufacturers will become even richer.

The main argument is will it be better for...
The boj would have to fight usdjpy speculative buyers if they intervene. It is a conflict of interest because the speculators will close their longs on the way up to take a profit, which is a sell order, which drives the market down, which is what boj will have to buy back up. If people on the other hand are shorting usdjpy, this makes for an easy intervention since the stop losses on these orders are buy orders and that will drive the pair up which will save boj some yen
  • #29,558
  • Jan 11, 2012 2:33pm Jan 11, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting aragami

I don't understand why BoJ doesn't try to defend anything after intervention like SNB. It's true that it will cost more for BoJ but doesn't Japan have deeper pockets then Switzerland?
it might be cause US$ gets less important for Japan economy as China is now the most important trading partner... that's why they did the currency swap deals with china...what they save there might balance the bad US exchange rate so why blow money into useless interventions?
  • #29,559
  • Jan 11, 2012 2:34pm Jan 11, 2012 2:34pm
There are basically two approaches that the central banks use to move the pair up. They either get speculators to short and then intervene, or they release news that they are considering intervening which will get the speculators/investors to do the work for them. It's a balance as one approach hinders the other.
  • #29,560
  • Jan 11, 2012 2:55pm Jan 11, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting torkay77
it might be cause US$ gets less important for Japan economy as China is now the most important trading partner... that's why they did the currency swap deals with china...what they save there might balance the bad US exchange rate so why blow money into useless interventions?
Both US and EU are major and very important partners ! Strong Yen therefore is a huge problem for them. Couple that to huge government debt and an aging population and you have a ticking time bomb ....
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