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  • #841
  • Dec 30, 2011 9:25am Dec 30, 2011 9:25am
Quoting lovejoy80
Trading books have been shut for the year now, so no more trades for me until the New Year (unless I see some longer term positional trades I want to get into). Erratic price action and low liquidity (periods of low momentum followed by sharp impulsive moves are classic signs of low liquidity) means it's time for me to enjoy the Xmas festivities.

The following were the technical setups on my immediate watchlist.

Silver - FTB around 31.00.
CJ - FTB around 75.75
CHFJPY - FTB around 83.45.
Gold - FTB around 1677.
UCHF - Technical Confluence...
So, what about these levels I mentioned previously:

Silver - level not hit yet
CJ - level hit, see chart below.
CHFJPY - trade invalidated when price came close to the level before moving away as well as the falling TL no longer lining up with the confluenced S/R.
Gold - level not hit yet
UCHF - level held as per previous charts above.

Well that wraps up this year, like most professional traders I stopped trading the week before xmas and won't be trading again until next week (it is certainly not prudent to be trading during the thin market conditions between xmas and new year - it's a time to relax, put your feet up and spend time with family and friends) and not back to normal sized trade levels until towards the end of January.

I've added some commonly asked questions (and answers!) as well as a better description of the services I offer on the first page of this thread.

I hope everyone who celebrates it had a good xmas and has a good NYE, more from me next year.
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  • #842
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:21pm Jan 6, 2012 11:21pm
no posts since Dec 30..lets make it active..

50Fib looks good..i see it coming.
38.2 as FTA
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  • #843
  • Jan 8, 2012 5:06pm Jan 8, 2012 5:06pm
Quoting AvanishDemo
no posts since Dec 30..lets make it active..

50Fib looks good..i see it coming.
38.2 as FTA
First time this year properly looking at charts today following an extended xmas break, plus it's not overly prudent to be trading during the first week after xmas.

I agree - a good example of a technically confluenced S/R area - Daily S/R + 50%fib.

A better example IMO is the Daily S/R+50%fib+RN as per the area in the second chart.

Either could offer a good opportunity to get into the current long trend.
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  • #844
  • Jan 10, 2012 5:07pm Jan 10, 2012 5:07pm
Slowly getting back into trading this week, been a bit quiet so far this week. A good set of risk sentiment based setups occurred at the start of the week...

Of course you'd expect AUD,NZD and CAD to outperform GBP and EUR on these bounces in risk sentiment - that's where the smart money would go - this is even more apparent given the extreme negative sentiment towards the Euro at the moment (just follow the last few COT reports) as can be clearly seen on the charts of ECAD, ENZD and EAUD where the Euro has been getting spanked!
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  • #845
  • Jan 10, 2012 5:09pm Jan 10, 2012 5:09pm
There was a tradable GU FTB setup yesterday but it missed my order by a few pips.
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  • #846
  • Jan 10, 2012 5:10pm Jan 10, 2012 5:10pm
and finally a daily breakout FTB setup yesterday too (best seen on 4HR TF).
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  • #847
  • Jan 10, 2012 5:12pm Jan 10, 2012 5:12pm
I had my orders set for a long on UCHF based on technical confluence at the 0.9450 area but price chose to bounce from the daily S/R above instead so orders cancelled for now.
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  • #848
  • Jan 11, 2012 1:34pm Jan 11, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting lovejoy80
It was intended as a means to share some of my trades...it didn't work very well because like most professional traders I don't use MT4 brokers (I use multiple brokers) and thus only a 'select' number of trades were copied. I stopped it for this reason ie. It was not working and hence the reason why I'm just going to share one of my live accounts instead from next year. It was a small account because the size of the average retail account is circa 1k but as per above I've decided the easiest way is to just share one of my live accounts.

I prefer...
Hi Lovejoy, Do you still plan on doing this or have you decided against it. I know you were sharing your results for a short time before but they didn't stay up for long. I for one would be much more interested in joining your trading room if you could offer proof you are a profitble trader as its always better to learn from the people making money. Hope you still plan on sharing your Oanda account online as you described in this post. Thanks for the thread.
  • #849
  • Jan 11, 2012 5:47pm Jan 11, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Trading books have been shut for the year now, so no more trades for me until the New Year (unless I see some longer term positional trades I want to get into). Erratic price action and low liquidity (periods of low momentum followed by sharp impulsive moves are classic signs of low liquidity) means it's time for me to enjoy the Xmas festivities.

The following were the technical setups on my immediate watchlist.

Silver - FTB around 31.00.
CJ - FTB around 75.75
CHFJPY - FTB around 83.45.
Gold - FTB around 1677.
UCHF - Technical Confluence...
The Silver and Gold setups from the previous post are coming back into focus again...
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  • #850
  • Jan 11, 2012 5:55pm Jan 11, 2012 5:55pm
Quoting lessismore
Hi Lovejoy, Do you still plan on doing this or have you decided against it. I know you were sharing your results for a short time before but they didn't stay up for long. I for one would be much more interested in joining your trading room if you could offer proof you are a profitble trader as its always better to learn from the people making money. Hope you still plan on sharing your Oanda account online as you described in this post. Thanks for the thread.
Yes I do plan on doing this in the new few weeks when my trading gets up to speed - this is the first week back 'to work' for me and I'm slowly getting up to full throttle, been a slow week so far but going through my watch list right now I have 11 pairs on there for possible upcoming setups so things are starting to look up.
  • #851
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:18am Jan 12, 2012 3:18am
Hi LJ,

I thought i would share this observation here. We can see strong money outflow from GBP to NZD from beginning of this week. It might be good GBPNZD buy opportunity during the risk aversion. 1.9 area looks interesting.
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  • #852
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:51am Jan 12, 2012 3:51am
Quoting Greenhaze
Hi LJ,

I thought i would share this observation here. We can see strong money outflow from GBP to NZD from beginning of this week. It might be good GBPNZD buy opportunity during the risk aversion. 1.9 area looks interesting.
I agree in that a) this is a solid area to be watching and b) a potential catalyst for a retrace from here could be strong market risk aversion.

However, something I would note is that GBP is being dragged down by the Euro lately and with sentiment towards the Euro at an extreme negative (best seen by looking at EUR versus the other majors i.e. NZD, CAD, AUD) I would be watching carefully how the Euro and GBP behave when the next bout of risk aversion comes into the market (of course there is a flip side to this - turning points happen at sentiment extremes i.e. when there are no more buyers/sellers left in the market) - just something to watch out for IMO.
  • #853
  • Jan 12, 2012 3:56am Jan 12, 2012 3:56am
Quoting lovejoy80
I agree in that a) this is a solid area to be watching and b) a potential catalyst for a retrace from here could be strong market risk aversion.

However, something I would note is that GBP is being dragged down by the Euro lately and with sentiment towards the Euro at an extreme negative (best seen by looking at EUR versus the other majors i.e. NZD, CAD, AUD) I would be watching carefully how the Euro and GBP behave when the next bout of risk aversion comes into the market (of course there is a flip side to this - turning points happen at sentiment...

Yepp... fully agree on that aswell. On top of that i would add the current longterm GU support which if broken might cap GBP longs.

edit: GU looks neat for long atm imo.

Cheers
  • #854
  • Jan 12, 2012 4:19am Jan 12, 2012 4:19am
Quoting Greenhaze
Yepp... fully agree on that aswell. On top of that i would add the current longterm GU support which if broken might cap GBP longs.

edit: GU looks neat for long atm imo.

Cheers
From a technical perspective I would favour a short here due to yesterdays daily close.

But we are at a critical area on GU...

On the downside a weekly close below 1.5365 would be interesting and a daily close below the Oct 6th low would be very interesting as this would be a good indication of further downside movement.

On the flip-side gotta watch the event risk - anything that can trigger a decent rally / change in sentiment will likely cause some decent short covering which would accelerate any upside movement.

Until I see signs of a change in either market sentiment (to bearish) or GBP sentiment (to bullish) I'd rather short the GBP on the crosses and stick to AU and NU longs on the majors rather than a GU long.
  • #855
  • Jan 12, 2012 4:24am Jan 12, 2012 4:24am
Quoting lovejoy80
From a technical perspective I would favour a short here due to yesterdays daily close.

But we are at a critical area on GU...

On the downside a weekly close below 1.5365 would be interesting and a daily close below the Oct 6th low would be very interesting as this would be a good indication of further downside movement.

On the flip-side gotta watch the event risk - anything that can trigger a decent rally / change in sentiment will likely cause some decent short covering which would accelerate any upside movement.

Until I see signs...
I took this GU long and i am expecting some short covering prior to the IR statement. Simple PA trade at good location but if nothing happens in next 1.5 hours then i will cut it.
  • #856
  • Jan 12, 2012 4:38am Jan 12, 2012 4:38am
Quoting Greenhaze
I took this GU long and i am expecting some short covering prior to the IR statement. Simple PA trade at good location but if nothing happens in next 1.5 hours then i will cut it.
I was just going to edit my previous post and add that I hadn't looked at the 4HR bar close whilst writing the previous post. . Sounds like a good plan.

I missed the short I wanted this morning...price closed below previous support and bar low, thus wanted to enter on the retrace with a TP at the Oct 6th low area. Order missed by a few pips.
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  • #857
  • Jan 12, 2012 5:06am Jan 12, 2012 5:06am
Quoting lovejoy80
I was just going to edit my previous post and add that I hadn't looked at the 4HR bar close whilst writing the previous post. . Sounds like a good plan.

I missed the short I wanted this morning...price closed below previous support and bar low, thus wanted to enter on the retrace with a TP at the Oct 6th low area. Order missed by a few pips.
That was very good area to short it and its always "a bit" iritating when price is missing an order by few pips. I was thinking of shorting it aswell but wasn't sure about the stop placement and possible R:R hence i skipped it. On the other hand i was going to buy audusd but resigned when the hourly close did not convince me.
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  • #858
  • Jan 12, 2012 5:21am Jan 12, 2012 5:21am
Quoting Greenhaze
That was very good area to short it and its always "a bit" iritating when price is missing an order by few pips. I was thinking of shorting it aswell but wasn't sure about the stop placement and possible R:R hence i skipped it. On the other hand i was going to buy audusd but resigned when the hourly close did not convince me.
I would have taken a small long before the breakout myself if I wasn't so busy with other stuff this morning. Of course the higher probability setup is to wait for a close above, but of course at times (like in this instance) price might close too far above the breakout area for it to be a good tradable setup.

But the setup is a bullish flag patten which obviously is an indication that price is more likely to breakout to the upside and continue upwards - the tight squeezing of the falling TL and the daily support level would have been another bullish sign - all in all this would have been enough for me to go long with a small position - just depends on your risk tolerance et.
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  • #859
  • Jan 12, 2012 5:24am Jan 12, 2012 5:24am
Couple of others on the watchlist.
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  • #860
  • Jan 12, 2012 6:01am Jan 12, 2012 6:01am
They did not change the asset purchase facility and thats a good sign. Took 2/3 of the table before the publication.
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