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supertrend system MTF

  • #61
  • Dec 18, 2011 4:29pm Dec 18, 2011 4:29pm
Quoting pgpb
I will do my own visual backtest to see what I see.
However, I am curious what system you suggest as an alternative.
I value your input as to why this will NOT work, but I would like to hear your input on what does work.

PGPB

I don't have any idea why it doesn't work, but unless the other pairs you trade perform much better than E/U does, I don't believe it works.

Thirty trades is statistically meaningful and the results are exactly what could be expected with a random coin toss entry- an average loss of 2 pips(the spread) per trade.

I wouldn't bother trying to tweak it to fix it. The entry doesn't provide a statistical edge. You would do as well trying to tweak a coin toss entry.


I have seen only two mechanical systems that work. One I developed several years ago, that stopped working when the EUR and the CHF lost correlation.

The other one is this one, which I had nothing to do with:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=296776
  • #62
  • Dec 18, 2011 4:35pm Dec 18, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting pgpb
I just did a very fast visual backtest for the EURUSD.
With this system, there are lots of times where coming into the 8am hour, there is just no set up, and it is best to go and look at another pair, and to NOT trade
I would not have traded 19 times on the EURUSD there were not any "good looking" sets ups. (the super trends were choppy, price was looking like it would top out etc)

Anyways....I am getting a bit forexfactory weary.
I do appreciate feedback and suggestions, but if you just want to say this system is crap.....well there is lots...

I have no idea when you would trade or not trade. You laid down a set of rules and I followed them.

"Good looking setups" are subjective and can't be part of a mechanical system.
  • #63
  • Dec 18, 2011 4:40pm Dec 18, 2011 4:40pm
I suppose this system (I do not want to call it my system, because there is nothing original here) is not 100% mechanical.
There is a lot of gut feel, and chart time required.

I can flip through various set ups, and some just look better to me than others.
I suppose I am consciously, or maybe unconsciously looking at things like, how far has price moved before the time frame I am looking at etc, etc
Is price trending nicely or is it ranging.
I put all those things in before taking a trade.

I like having those supertrends on my chart to help me decide whether or not to enter.

I guess if I post a "system" people have the right to pick it apart to see if it has merit or not.

I have made other systems work, but they all required me to either look at 5 minute charts, too much for me, or they required 4 hour charts, and that required to big a stop loss for my stomach.
So I wanted something that suits me.

PGPB
  • #64
  • Dec 18, 2011 11:30pm Dec 18, 2011 11:30pm
I think the problem d system has is because d 30m tf super trend is too small to give cover 4 15m tf. U have to check out supertrend set on 1h and 4h tf to be above/below 15m supertrnd on 15 tf
  • #65
  • Dec 19, 2011 5:13am Dec 19, 2011 5:13am
Quoting pgpb
I suppose this system (I do not want to call it my system, because there is nothing original here) is not 100% mechanical.
There is a lot of gut feel, and chart time required.

I can flip through various set ups, and some just look better to me than others.
I suppose I am consciously, or maybe unconsciously looking at things like, how far has price moved before the time frame I am looking at etc, etc
Is price trending nicely or is it ranging.
I put all those things in before taking a trade.

I like having those supertrends on my chart to help...
Hello Pgpb,

Nice to meet you after long time. This thread drew my attention because I am a heavy user of Supertrend. Still, I prefer the original one that consists of CCI50 and ATR5, not the one that you have presented here.
But the principle is the same, of course - if higher timeframe ST is above/under the lower TF ST then, for sure, it is a good sign of trend.
What is the weak point in this system as in any breakout system is complete ignoring of momentum. Especially if using pending orders - then you absolutely lose control over timing of entries.
So, I suggest to add any indicator that shows momentum and to enter when its signal matches with the break of SR line or fractal or whatever. My personal preference for momentum has always been Trix as you know.
  • #66
  • Dec 19, 2011 8:58am Dec 19, 2011 8:58am
Quoting Indrek
Hello Pgpb,

Nice to meet you after long time. This thread drew my attention because I am a heavy user of Supertrend. Still, I prefer the original one that consists of CCI50 and ATR5, not the one that you have presented here.
But the principle is the same, of course - if higher timeframe ST is above/under the lower TF ST then, for sure, it is a good sign of trend.
What is the weak point in this system as in any breakout system is complete ignoring of momentum. Especially if using pending orders - then you absolutely lose control over timing of...
Nice to hear from you, it has been a long time.
Is the supertrend that you refer to this one (see attached)
(if not, can you share the supertrend that you refer to)
Great advice about the Trix!!
I will try it.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SuperTrend nrp mtf.mq4   7 KB | 2,883 downloads
File Type: ex4 SuperTrend nrp mtf.ex4   8 KB | 1,570 downloads
  • #67
  • Dec 19, 2011 9:49am Dec 19, 2011 9:49am
Quoting pgpb
Is the supertrend that you refer to this one (see attached)
Exactly the same. It is a very powerful tool to my mind.
  • #68
  • Dec 19, 2011 10:33am Dec 19, 2011 10:33am
pgpb,

I like your thread ... I tend to trade in
the direction of the Daily chart on
a handful of currencies but I enjoy
evaluating other strategies on different
timeframes.

Nice work ... I'm currently watching
this on the AUD/USD.

I am a little disconcerted by your
eerie resemblance to Dr. Evil though ...
have you always harbored an
overwhelming desire to rule the world ..?



colder99
  • #69
  • Dec 19, 2011 12:55pm Dec 19, 2011 12:55pm
Quoting colder99
pgpb,

I like your thread ... I tend to trade in
the direction of the Daily chart on
a handful of currencies but I enjoy
evaluating other strategies on different
timeframes.

Nice work ... I'm currently watching
this on the AUD/USD.

I am a little disconcerted by your
eerie resemblance to Dr. Evil though ...
have you always harbored an
overwhelming desire to rule the world ..?



colder99
Thanks colder

I did not trade today, too many work things got in the way, and I did not have time to really hang about with the charts, and the times I did look I did not see any set ups that I liked.

I have experimented with Indrek's suggestion of an alternate supertrend, and I also *REALLY* like the idea of using Trix for an early warning

see attached chart for this renovation.
6 bars before the orange line (8:15am) Trix give an early warning, not a perfect set up, but I like how Trix gives a signal to look for longs
Attached Image
  • #70
  • Dec 19, 2011 1:01pm Dec 19, 2011 1:01pm
On Fridays euro, 18 bars before the Orange 8:15am marker, Trix would have warned us about a potential long.
12 bars before I placed my order and got filled and price went against me a bit but then went up to give me my 30 pips
(I was not using Trix at the time)
I hope Indrek visits this thread some more

See attached
Attached Image
  • #71
  • Edited 2:07pm Dec 19, 2011 1:49pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting pgpb
On Fridays euro, 18 bars before the Orange 8:15am marker, Trix would have warned us about a potential long.
12 bars before I placed my order and got filled and price went against me a bit but then went up to give me my 30 pips
(I was not using Trix at the time)
I hope Indrek visits this thread some more

See attached
You had drawdown because you entered while Trix was falling. Seven candles later you had a perfect entry - break of fractal + rising Trix.
That is what I meant when I said - no pending orders.
  • #72
  • Dec 20, 2011 1:21am Dec 20, 2011 1:21am
Quoting Indrek
Exactly the same. It is a very powerful tool to my mind.

Is there difference between old (pgpb posted in first post)and this new Supertrend indicator?
  • #73
  • Dec 20, 2011 5:49am Dec 20, 2011 5:49am
30 pips on todays GBP
TRIX gave the signal to watch
Attached Image
  • #74
  • Dec 21, 2011 11:48am Dec 21, 2011 11:48am
Quoting pgpb
Nice to hear from you, it has been a long time.
Is the supertrend that you refer to this one (see attached)
(if not, can you share the supertrend that you refer to)
Great advice about the Trix!!
I will try it.
Please is there a version that send alert via email for this exact indicator?
Thanks
  • #75
  • Jan 2, 2012 6:29am Jan 2, 2012 6:29am
Hi pgpb & aileman. As to the directly above question: Yes, there are at least two I know of - the one listed on the first post of this thread and the one posted here.

Thanks for the interesting system which looks like I might be able to get a few pips out of it, which is saying a lot since after four years of practice, can't seem to get FX results that are at all reliable. This seems to be the main delusional drawback with forex: It looks possible but it isn't. Not to say i won't keep trying. And while I am NOT stupid, it just looks that way, and think this has something to do with not having the Kamakazi mindset necessary to retail trading. (although sometimes do keep in trades when they've already fired the first warning that manipulation is imminent, just out of principal, but these - all in fact - are demo.)

Found last week a version of Supertrend in my trading platform that is different from the one in the first post, and also from the one you were using at your last change of supertrend, pgpb. (Maybe if you're not to weary from contending attacks you'll want to try it.) Don't know where it came from but it's avail in Forex TSD. In comparing several indicators called Supertrend in a few short timeframes up to M30, including the two discussed in this thread, found this one to be both smoother and in many instances but not all, quicker that the others.

This one displays in the middle, so if there's a downtrend, price is below it & visa versa, while striking right through the price during ranging, which might actually add confusion in pgpb's system. Also, don't know if it actually does what you would call repainting, but sometimes at the trend reversal it rings several times, listing opposite trend in close succession. Like within seconds.

While it's good for my purposes & have abandoned one other Auditory Alert indi I was using in its favor, thought your system looked most organized and comprehensible with the version in the first post, & probably will try it.

Best, Bruce
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SupertrendAudibleAlert.mq4   5 KB | 1,248 downloads
  • #76
  • Jan 2, 2012 1:03pm Jan 2, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting brucewhain

Thanks for the interesting system which looks like I might be able to get a few pips out of it, which is saying a lot since after four years of practice, can't seem to get FX results that are at all reliable.
Hey Bruce

The one thing that I know for sure, is trading multi-time frame tips the scale in your favor.

I am still trading a variation of this.

I look to the 4 hour and the 1 hour to confirm the direction of the trend.
I trade off the 15 minute for my entries.
I use Trix to help me refine my entries.

If you have the direction of the trend and a good momentum indicator like Trix, you will win more than you lose.

PGPB
  • #77
  • Jan 2, 2012 7:22pm Jan 2, 2012 7:22pm
Thanks PGPB. Will have to try it. Know the SupertrendAudibleAlert doesnt do MTF and am familiar with the inconvenience of having to look at more than one chart for a single currency so probably this one is not so good for that. Also just found out: If you wnat to have ST-AudibleAlert display in a different color it's best to set that in the code and have all iterations on the charts the same. Otherwise it starts acting freaky. Am now trying this with Renko charts and the results look amazingly good. 'Course there's no way to backtest it. Best, Bruce
  • #78
  • Jan 11, 2012 8:15am Jan 11, 2012 8:15am
Very interesting concept.

I like the multi time frame trading concept, but the MTF indicators are not totally reliable for back testing a trading system. It does not show the true trend of the higher time frame on the smaller time frame chart all of the time, but it does most of the time.

When I put the template on the 30-minute chart it shows 2 different plots, one calculating based on current time from for the 30-minute time frame, and one calculating based on MTF indicator for the same 30-minute time frame.

I tend to shift between different time frames to get a accurate picture of the trend, even though it is a bit more cumbersome than using a single chart with MTF indicators.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #79
  • Jan 11, 2012 9:08am Jan 11, 2012 9:08am
Quoting mangala
Very interesting concept.

I like the multi time frame trading concept, but the MTF indicators are not totally reliable for back testing a trading system. It does not show the true trend of the higher time frame on the smaller time frame chart all of the time, but it does most of the time.

When I put the template on the 30-minute chart it shows 2 different plots, one calculating based on current time from for the 30-minute time frame, and one calculating based on MTF indicator for the same 30-minute time frame.

I tend to shift between different...
Yes, I agree, the only way to get a feel for what is going on, on the higher time frames is to look at them.

Trading with the trend and using a good momentum indicator (like Trix) is where it is at (in my opinion)

Supertrend is a good indicator to help you remember, but there are lots of good indicators.

PGPB
  • #80
  • Jan 17, 2012 1:03pm Jan 17, 2012 1:03pm
Hi PbPg

I have enjoyed your thread. I do not trade your system exactly but, I have used supertrend in the past, however your particular indicator is different than the older version. You may have answered this question before but could you please explain the multiplier input. If I change its value to 1 (one) should it not be the same as the original supertrend indicator (that is, I would think it should be a straight line like the original). I hope you can figure out what I am asking. If I can adjust your supertrend indicator to a known value above & below the original supertrend indicator it will offer an excellent device to place over night stop order entries.

thanks in advance

gmcc
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