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Attachments: SuperTrend Hedge V1
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SuperTrend Hedge V1

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited at 11:39pm Aug 15, 2010 4:54pm | Edited at 11:39pm
  •  bluemele
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 904 Posts
Hi all,

[Update, I removed the Hedge concept because it is too difficult to explain and it is confusing]

Please tell me what you think of one of my profitable LIVE systems. This system is less about perfect entries and more about proper money management.

EXPECTED PROFIT: 10%+ PER MONTH

EXPECTED DRAWDOWN: < 20% AT ANY TIME

INDICATORS: SUPERTREND

Recommended Time Frame: 4HR or Daily This system is to be traded off any time frame, however, the larger the time frame, the easier to manage manually. The intent is that I along with others will create an EA from this possibly in the future to accommodate smaller time-frame's. If you aren't available to watch your charts every 4 hours, then Daily is your option until EA is created!

Recommended Lot size: .01 (Micro) 10 cents per pip or smaller -- per $250.00 -- per currency (trade 20 pairs, $5000.00 minimum account size) for daily. If 4HR, double amount due to more Martingale affect.

Recommended Pairs: ANY EXCEPT AUDNZD, EURCHF, EURGBP or any others that don't move many pips on a typical week. Those pairs will just take up your time and energy with little profit.

Entry Rules:

LONG
BAR CLOSE PRICE >= SUPERTREND/ATR:
THEN GO LONG

This entry identifies itself by the supertrend changing colors from red/green

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: trend change.gif
Size: 20 KB


As trade continues hold until:
BAR CLOSE PRICE <= SUPERTREND/ATR

If price for .01 lot was in profit, then exit trade


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: trend change1.jpg
Size: 88 KB




MARGTINGALE LONG
If trade moves against you per the above picture, you will then MULTIPLY your next entry in that direction by 1.5 (This is just what I use). Here are the levels @ a multiplier of 1.5:

L1: .01 lots (1st Long trade ends with loss) ($.10 cents per pip)
L2: .02 lots (2nd Long trade ends with loss) ($.20 cents per pip)
L3: .03 lots (etc..) (.$30 cents per pip)
L4: .05 lots (.$50 cents per pip)
L5: .08 lots (.$80 cents per pip)
L6: .12 lots ($1.20 dollar per pip)
L7: .18 lots ($1.80 dollar per pip)
L8: .27 lots ($2.70 dollars per pip)
L9: .41 lots ($4.10 dollars per pip)
L10: .62 lots ($6.20 dollars per pip)
L11: .93 lots ($9.30 dollars per pip)
L12: 1.4 lots ($14 dollars per pip)

If Multiplied trades are IN PROFIT, then you will use all but one lot to recover your losses.

For example (see chart below):
L1 -- Hedge S1 = -68 pips (.01 lots each)
Multiplier moves next Long entry to .02 lots
Price Retraces to close out both trades at BE

L2 -- Hedge S2 = Loss of 19 pips X 2 = -38 pips (.02 lots each)
Multiplier moves next Long entry to .03 lots
Price Retraces to close out both trades at BE

L3 -- Hedge S3 = Loss of 39 pips X 3 = -107 pips (.03 lots each)
Multiplier moves next Long entry to .05 lots
Price Retraces to close out both trades at BE

L4 -- Hedge S4 = Loss of 70 pips X 5 = -350 pips (.05 lots each)
Multiplier moves next Long entry to .08 lots
Price Retraces to close out both trades at BE

TOTAL PIPS 'LOST' BEFORE WINNING TRADE = 563 (@ .10 cents per lot = $56.30 cents)

We have to recover now 563 pips with our current total lots .08 - .01 (starting lot size) = .07 -- We are saving our .01 to RUN with the current trade

563 pips / 7 = 81 pips

Once L5 reaches 81 pips profit (not including spreads for ease), then you are even and you will close .07 lots and maintain the last lot until it hits ATR cross. If this .01 loses, then next step is .02, etc..

L5 -- Win of 183 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: trend change3.jpg
Size: 90 KB


Monetary Summary:

183 pips = $18.30

ROI = 3.66% (500.00 account per currency)

Drawdown = 11.26%

Time-frame = 7/22/10 - 8/9/10 = 12 trading days approx.

SHORT
You will do the exact same except opposite direction of the aforementioned process. The benefit of this technique is that you can get the trend in both directions while minimizing your losses of which you may recover at some point in the future. THE MARTINGALE MULTIPLIER IS STRICTLY SEPARATE UPON LONGS & SHORTS! IF YOU ARE AT L3 ON LONG'S, YOU COULD BE AT S1 ON SHORTS, THEY DO NOT SHARE THE MULTIPLIER!

This technique makes MONEY, the only challenge is that you have to manage your trades properly by tracking them! Please provide any input or recommendations you may have. I have tried variations to this, but believe this is the best so far, but would love to see other input!


Broker Caution
The concept is to implement a Martingale approach to recover bad entries with hedging while letting your winners ride! THIS REQUIRES A BROKER THAT ALLOWS HEDGING IF YOU CHOOSE TO DO IT IN THE SAME ACCOUNT. THIS CAN BE DONE IN A NON-HEDGE BROKER, HOWEVER IT WOULD THEN REQUIRE A SEPARATE ACCOUNT AND YOU WOULD HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHICH PAIRS TO PUT IN EACH ACCOUNT TO COMPENSATE BY CREATING A MULTI-ACCOUNT HEDGE. I am using Forex.com UK account for my broker but do not recommend them over any other for certain.

Common Sense
Also, use common sense. If you believe in all your heart that an entry is long only, then only take the longs! If you believe there will be a huge retrace, then do what is beneficial to you if you choose. I just created this as I think it is going to retrace and it goes up for another 200 pips!
Attached Files
File Type: mq4 SuperTrend.mq4   4 KB | 2 downloads
File Type: mq4 Faded Background Blue.mq4   4 KB | 1 download
File Type: tpl supertrend hedge v1.tpl   6 KB | 1 download
We are our own best indicator.
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:09pm Aug 15, 2010 5:09pm
  •  bbolss
  • | Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Member | 355 Posts
as i see it can be also any tf right?
just smaller sl and wins?

this money managment only bother me - it can kill you very eazy =]
how long do you trade like this?
regards
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:17pm Aug 15, 2010 5:17pm
  •  bluemele
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 904 Posts
Quoting bbolss
Disliked
as i see it can be also any tf right?
just smaller sl and wins?

this money managment only bother me - it can kill you very eazy =]
how long do you trade like this?
regards
Ignored
Any TF works, but due to spreads and Martingale, the smaller you go, the more risk.

SL will be smaller, however, Martingale would be higher, so not advised.

Martingale is exceptionally dangerous. I wouldn't advise it except for the more advanced traders who understand trading.

I haven't traded long with this specific method. I have been 'building' it over the course of about 4 months. I started using RENKO, Point & Figure, Range, you name it with the ATR bar (SuperTrend). I was trading futures with it (CL - OIL) and it works well just doing the one direction, but you can get chopped up pretty easily.

This has been a culmination of about 4 different systems that I am currently trading. I am very profitable on Martingale and non-marti as well. Usually up about 10% to 15% per account, but since I lost so much 'learning' that I am cautious on the $ being invested so I only put in about 20K, so not paying for my living yet! I could put in a lot more, but I am too cautious, that is why I like this system!

If the marti's go to high, you can stop at anytime.... Take your lumps and walk away. Most likely the losses won't be that high, and the Hedge trade could end up taking you out of most of them....



--- another challenge is administration with this system. It takes some thinking on management, but none on entries really. I use my best judgement as well and will exit trades early, usually to my detriment!
We are our own best indicator.
 
1
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:38pm Aug 15, 2010 5:38pm
  •  Lonestar
  • | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Member | 133 Posts
Quoting bluemele
Disliked
Martingale is exceptionally dangerous. I wouldn't advise it except for the more advanced traders who understand trading.
Ignored
More advanced traders who understand trading know not to do it.
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:43pm Aug 15, 2010 5:43pm
  •  bluemele
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 904 Posts
Quoting Lonestar
Disliked
More advanced traders who understand trading know not to do it.
Ignored
Disagree..... This reminds me of another thread where everyone gets so fixated on the 'fear' of poor money management and martingale.

I have systems where I do both. If Martingale isn't your deal, then please don't try it.

Many people also believe EA's don't work... You have to trade manually which I do as well. Some people believe eating onions are bad for you, while others believe it is great for you.

I hopefully don't want a bunch of master traders imparting wisdom as I am in hopes of people who are willing to test the system and evaluate the profitability. If you have something profitable to point out, please chip-in, otherwise, please sit-out...
We are our own best indicator.
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Aug 15, 2010 5:55pm Aug 15, 2010 5:55pm
  •  Lonestar
  • | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Member | 133 Posts
Quoting bluemele
Disliked
Disagree..... This reminds me of another thread where everyone gets so fixated on the 'fear' of poor money management and martingale.

Some people believe eating onions are bad for you, while others believe it is great for you.

...please sit-out...
Ignored
They are not fixated on the 'fear' of poor money management and martingale it's that they understand what it can and WILL do to an account.

And it doesn't matter if you think onions are good or bad for you because either way they are going to make you cry just like when martingale blows your account.

BTW-if you utilize the martingale of your approach "better", you can ditch the hedging part all together and get the same results. Good luck to you.
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Aug 15, 2010 6:02pm Aug 15, 2010 6:02pm
  •  bluemele
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 904 Posts
Quoting Lonestar
Disliked
They are not fixated on the 'fear' of poor money management and martingale it's that they understand what it can and WILL do to an account.

And it doesn't matter if you think onions are good or bad for you because either way they are going to make you cry just like when martingale blows your account.

BTW-if you utilize the martingale of your approach "better", you can ditch the hedging part all together and get the same results. Good luck to you.
Ignored
See, there you go, something constructive! What do you mean better?

I wasn't intending to upset you, however, I get tired of all the negative people 'saving' everyone from themselves. It gets a bit old. I have invested millions of dollars, been a multi-millionaire a couple times, lost millions as well. I understand how to make it and lose it, but who cares, at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is enjoying your life and not being around critical negative people (not that you are, but I perceived your comments as such). I have had martingale blow up an account (small one), but I do believe you can use it effectively on the larger time frames. (EDIT, I am doing it successfully on 3 accounts)

I would be very willing to hear your plan?
We are our own best indicator.
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:22pm Aug 15, 2010 11:22pm
  •  aelimian
  • | Joined Oct 2004 | Status: Member | 419 Posts
Quoting bluemele
Disliked
See, there you go, something constructive! What do you mean better?

I wasn't intending to upset you, however, I get tired of all the negative people 'saving' everyone from themselves. It gets a bit old. I have invested millions of dollars, been a multi-millionaire a couple times, lost millions as well. I understand how to make it and lose it, but who cares, at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is enjoying your life and not being around critical negative people (not that you are, but I perceived your comments as such). I have had...
Ignored
I took a look at your template. Have you tried 20/3 as opposed to 3/1.25 settings for the supertrend?
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:36pm Aug 15, 2010 11:36pm
  •  bluemele
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 904 Posts
Quoting aelimian
Disliked
I took a look at your template. Have you tried 20/3 as opposed to 3/1.25 settings for the supertrend?
Ignored
No, I haven't lately. I will take a look at it. When I did hundreds of tests on NinjaTrader, I did come back as 16-20 as ideal settings for shorter term (144 tick etc..) timeframes, but on longer timeframe's, I find that it rarely puts you in trades and drawdown is substantially higher.

I find that 3/1.25 is better for skimming the trend! Let me see and get back to you!

[edit: just looked at it again, and it is similar to the default 14/3, which is good for 1hr timerframe's or less, but in my opinion, you miss most of the pips and your drawdowns are huge on 4HR and daily's.]
We are our own best indicator.
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Aug 15, 2010 11:53pm Aug 15, 2010 11:53pm
  •  bluemele
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 904 Posts
Oh, I like to trade 4HR and Daily's because it is less stress... With an EA, I would trade lower timeframe..
We are our own best indicator.
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Aug 16, 2010 8:54pm Aug 16, 2010 8:54pm
  •  bluemele
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 904 Posts
Ok, so I have started working on the EA, and to keep it simple, I am just doing one of my original scenario's that is the exit for the multiple entries and just based on a minimum profit of 'X' pips (in this case 10) for the basket.

The struggle I had was with the ATR calculation or how to reference the Supertrend indicator value.... This is a work in progress, but thought I would show how I get started.

Inserted Code
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//|                                                SuperTrend V1.mq4 |
//|                      Copyright © 2010, MetaQuotes Software Corp. |
//|                                        http://www.metaquotes.net |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
#property copyright "Copyright © 2010, MetaQuotes Software Corp."
#property link      "http://www.metaquotes.net"


extern double  atrMultiplier = 1.25;          //Average True Range of change in trend calculation
extern int     Periods = 3;                  //Number of periods for ATR calculation
extern double  Multiplier = 1.5;             //Martingale Multiplier
extern int     TimeFrame = 240;              //So we can move through different time periods
extern bool    TypeOfEntry = 0;              //0 = buy, 1 = sell, other = buy as default
extern double  StartingLots = 0.01;          //Starting # of lots before Martingale
extern int     Magic = 0;                    //Magic Number, 0 is default

double   Pip,
         LotDigits,
         ATR,
         medianPrice,
         up,dn,TrendChange;
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| expert initialization function                                   |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int init()
  {
//----
   Pip = Point;
   if (Digits == 3 || Digits == 5){Pip *= 10;}
   if (MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_LOTSTEP) == 0.01){LotDigits = 2;}
      
//----
   return(0);
  }
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| expert deinitialization function                                 |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int deinit()
  {
//----
   
//----
   return(0);
  }
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| expert start function                                            |
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+
int start()
  {
//----
   ATR = iATR(NULL, TimeFrame, Periods, 0);
   medianPrice = (iHigh(NULL,TimeFrame,0)+iLow(NULL,TimeFrame,0))/2;
   up=medianPrice+(Multiplier*ATR);
   dn=medianPrice-(Multiplier*ATR);
   TrendChange = Bid -(ATR*Multiplier);
   Comment("medianPrice: "+medianPrice,"up: "+up,"dn: "+dn, "n", "TrendChange: ", TrendChange);
//----
   return(0);
  }
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+

/*
int MinimumProfitOfBasket  =  10;
int slippage               =  99;

Loop through all BUY (0) Orders per currency
   Sum all orders together (OrderProfit() + OrderSwap()) Where Comment = "L"
   Sum all sell orders together (OrderProfit() + OrderSwap()) Where Comment = "HS"
   
Loop through all SELL (1) Orders
   Sum allorders together (OrderProfit() + OrderSwap()) Where Comment = "S"
   Sum all sell orders together (OrderProfit() + OrderSwap()) Where Comment = "HL"      
   
SUM Baskets
   Long's = L Orders + HS Orders
   Short's = S Orders + HL Orders
   
Comment on screen
      # of L Orders, Current Profit of L Orders + HL Orders Combined
      # of S Orders, Current Profit of L Orders + HS Orders Combined

If BidPreviousBar(-1) < supertrendIndicator && BidCurrentBar(0) >= supertrendIndicator, then
   InitiateEntry(Long) function called;
   
If BidPreviousBar(-1) > supertrendIndicator && BidCurrentBar(0) <= supertrendIndicator, then
   InitiateEntry(Short) function called;
   
   
====================================   
void InitiateEntry(EntryType)
bool Success;

   If(EntryType == Long)
      If(Short's >= MinimumProfitOfBasket)
         success = OrderClose() all Short's;
         if(success)
            return();
      If(Short's < MinimumProfitOfBasket)
         addHedge(Short) function;
         addPositions(Long) function;
   If(EntryType == Short)
      If(Long's >= MinimumProfitOfBasket)
         success = OrderClose() all Long's;
         if(success)
            return();
      else if(Long's < MinimumProfitOfBasket)
         addHedge(Long) function;
         addPositions(Long) function;
====================================
int addPositions(Direction)
int   Level;
bool  OrderSendSuccess  =  0;

   if(Direction == Long)
   {
      (for loop through orders for this currency)
      {
         If(OrderType() == 0)
         {
            If(Comment == "L")
            {
               Level++;
            }
         }  
      }
      Level += 1;
      OrderSendSuccess = OrderSend(Symbol(),0,(Level*Multiplier),Ask,slippage,0,0,"L",magic,0,CLR_NONE);
      if(OrderSendSuccess)
         return();
   }
   
   if(Direction == Short)
   {
      (for loop through orders for this currency)
      {
         If(OrderType() == 1)
         {
            If(Comment == "S")
            {
               Level++;
            }
         }  
      }
      Level += 1;
      OrderSendSuccess = OrderSend(Symbol(),1,(Level*Multiplier),Ask,slippage,0,0,"L",magic,0,CLR_NONE);
      if(OrderSendSuccess)
         return();
   }
   
   
   
====================================
void addHedge(Direction)
{
   if(Direction == Short)
   {
      (for loop through orders for this currency)
      {
         If(OrderType() == 0)
         {
            If(Comment == "L")
            {
               Level++;
            }
            OrderSendSuccess = OrderSend(Symbol(),1,(Level*Multiplier),Ask,slippage,0,0,"HL",magic,0,CLR_NONE);
            if(OrderSendSuccess)
               return();
         }  
      }
   }  
   if(Direction == Long)
   {
      (for loop through orders for this currency)
      {
         If(OrderType() == 1)
         {
            If(Comment == "S")
            {
               Level++;
            }
            OrderSendSuccess = OrderSend(Symbol(),0,(Level*Multiplier),Ask,slippage,0,0,"HS",magic,0,CLR_NONE);
            if(OrderSendSuccess)
               return();
         }  
      }
   }  
}  
   





*/
We are our own best indicator.
 
1
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Nov 21, 2020 8:22pm Nov 21, 2020 8:22pm
  •  jonasb
  • | Joined Nov 2020 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
Quoting bluemele
Disliked
Hi all, Please tell me what you think of one of my profitable LIVE systems. This system is less about perfect entries and more about proper money management. EXPECTED PROFIT: 10%+ PER MONTH EXPECTED DRAWDOWN: < 20% AT ANY TIME INDICATORS: SUPERTREND Recommended Time Frame: 4HR or Daily This system is to be traded off any time frame, however, the larger the time frame, the easier to manage manually. The intent is that I along with others will create an EA from this possibly in the future to accommodate smaller time-frame's. If you aren't available...
Ignored
Hello, were you able to automate your Hedge idea in an EA?
Kindness, bluemele, could you share with me? I really wanted to test this Expert.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Dec 9, 2020 6:13am Dec 9, 2020 6:13am
  •  DollaMite
  • | Joined Feb 2020 | Status: Junior Member | 6 Posts
How do you know which direction your going to hedge in? It seem you need to pick a direction and you only use one indicator and no price action. Eg. It looks like your example above would have worked better if you swapped your Buys for Sells and Sells for Buys, so your always with the trend and still hedged on the Sell side. But i dont understand how you determine what side you will hedge?
Are you still working on this project?
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Last Post: Dec 9, 2020 9:12am Dec 9, 2020 9:12am
  •  simnz
  • Joined Nov 2015 | Status: Member | 2,517 Posts
Quoting DollaMite
Disliked
How do you know which direction your going to hedge in? It seem you need to pick a direction and you only use one indicator and no price action. Eg. It looks like your example above would have worked better if you swapped your Buys for Sells and Sells for Buys, so your always with the trend and still hedged on the Sell side. But i dont understand how you determine what side you will hedge? Are you still working on this project?
Ignored
You have to have your own bias for direction.
Try to hedge in such a way that you can get out of hedge lock when price starts moving in your favoured direction. Hedging needs 5 years of practice.
Practice makes a person perfect
 
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