EurAnalysis

Same plan

Good day Goldie. Watching for shit to hit the fan at either 1.28 or 1.293.

There is also 1.2860/70 area

GM - so yesterday finally had a 75 pip range before Asia sold off a little, now a nice bounce up off the rising TL both before and after FO gave good long entries with my initial target at the days open / DP resistance area....above that is the 61% retrace and high volume POC level so I'm now waiting to see IF we get a short signal in this area....
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1326270868

Got to love the confluence.

Fitch: Italy likely to be downgraded by end of January

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/image...13636708-1.jpg Dragging its heels - Italy has been slow to cut its debts
Continue reading the main story Global Economy

 

1. What caused the eurozone crisis?
2. How will the euro crisis end?
3. Crisis jargon buster
4. Europe's four big dilemmas

There is a "significant" chance that Italy will have its credit rating downgraded this month, an executive at the ratings agency Fitch has said.
David Riley, Fitch's head of global sovereign ratings, cited the lack of a plan to halt the eurozone crisis, coupled with Italy's high debts.
Fitch warned last month that Italy and five other eurozone countries were all at risk of downgrade.
Another Fitch spokesman said he did not foresee a downgrade of France in 2012.
In December the agency revised its outlook on France to "negative" from "stable", meaning a downgrade is possible in 12-18 months.
'Front line'
Italy currently holds an A+ rating. But last month, along with Spain, Belgium, the Irish Republic, Slovenia and Cyprus, it was placed on "credit watch negative" by Fitch, which means it could face a downgrade within three months.
Mr Riley said the agency's reviews of the countries were due to be completed by 31 January.
He said that Italy, the third largest economy in the eurozone, was at the "front line" of Europe's debt crisis.
"The future of the euro will be decided at the gates of Rome," he told reporters in London.
"One thing which would also help Italy, which is outside of its immediate control, is to take out the liquidity crisis premium, which basically means you need to have a... firewall.
"At the moment we don't have that and that's a serious concern with regard to Italy. It's one of the reasons why we have Italy on [credit] watch negative, it's one of the reasons why when we conclude that review, there is a significant chance that that rating will fall."

Mafia now "Italy's No.1 bank" as crisis bites-report

Tue Jan 10, 2012 2:04pm EST


* Extortionate lending a "national emergency"
* Organised crime has annual turnover of 140 bln euros
By James Mackenzie
ROME, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Organised crime has tightened its grip on the Italian economy during the economic crisis, making the Mafia the country's biggest "bank" and squeezing the life out of thousands of small firms, according to a report on Tuesday.
Extortionate lending by criminal groups had become a "national emergency", said the report by anti-crime group SOS Impresa.
Organised crime now generated annual turnover of about 140 billion euros ($178.89 billion) and profits of more than 100 billion euros, it added.
"With 65 billion euros in liquidity, the Mafia is Italy's number one bank," said a statement from the group, which was set up in Palermo a decade ago to oppose extortion rackets against small business.
Organised crime groups like the Sicilian Cosa Nostra, the Naples Camorra or the Calabrian 'Ndrangheta have long had a stranglehold on the Italian economy, generating profits equivalent to about 7 percent of national output.
Extortionate lending had become an increasingly sophisticated and lucrative source of income, alongside drug trafficking, arms smuggling, prostitution, gambling and racketeering, the report said.
"The classic neighbourhood or street loan shark is on the way out, giving way to organised loan-sharking that is well connected with professional circles and operates with the connivance of high-level professionals," the report said.
It estimated about 200,000 businesses were tied to extortionate lenders and tens of thousands of jobs had been lost as a result.

EXTORTION WITH A CLEAN FACE
Old style gangsters handing out cash in bars and pool halls had been replaced by apparently respectable bankers, lawyers or notaries, the report said.
"This is extortion with a clean face," it added. "Through their professions, they know the mechanisms of the legal credit market and they often know the financial position of their victims perfectly."
Small businesses, who have struggled to get hold of credit during the economic slowdown, may have been increasingly tempted to turn to the mafia, said the report.
Typical victims of extortionate lending were middle-aged shopkeepers and small businessmen who would struggle to find a new job and who were ready to try anything to avoid bankruptcy, it added.
"They are usually people in traditional retail sectors like food, greengrocers, clothes or shoe shops, florists or furniture shops. These are the categories which, more than any other, are paying the price of the (economic) crisis," it said.
According to a separate report this week from small business association CNA, 56 percent of companies had seen banks tighten their lending requirements in the past three months.

Ok with no news to boost the markets I'm going to be very selective when picking trades today...we are currently trading near the top of my indecision zone with the artificial high where its at...when price reaches my desired zone then a pssible entry will be made.

Where we have a 50% fib level at 1.287 (1.3076 - 1.2665)
Question. Why are you drawing the fib levels from 1.320 area and not from 1.308?

Hi!

A question: Not familiar with an artificial high. Care to explain?

Really great videos:

Nothing much really...just a high....I use artificial because there are tons of fake highs and lows all day and I don't want to get distracted with trying to pick a major high or bottom so I expect all the lows and highs to be knocked out...hope I made sense

German Bund auction starts at 10 GMT 0,

Some volatility expected and there is some buy stops waiting at 1.286. Later in the afternoon we see little rain and weather should be clearer in the evening.

A

That was the H4 fib
The H1 fib is drawn from 3076

and the results due shortly after 10:30 GMT....so time for coffee

Euro 1H

With no news...trading one way makes sense...after browsing a longer term chart...I will only be buying for now

under 38.2 level still bearish for me.......above it will consider bullish since daily chart make a rebound pattern..

according to risk on - risk of and with the observation the EUR/USD vs GOLD i have conclusion that the risk on trader buying GOLD rather than EUR and risk off trader selling EUR rather than selling gold

so how we can estimate the correlation between GOLD and EUR?

Thanks all

Major trend is bearish. But every time there is rebound, it is good to speculate if it is a bottom.