USD/JPY Discussion

ur first chart shown quite high for the reversal pattern...

jun azumi must quickly act....or he also have see the reversall?and thats why he said

"must watch for the long term move"?

Hi Krunfx,

not sure what you mean

but the green numbers are waves on cycle degree. That means that a wave on cycle degree lasts years.......

One can state here, that we see a perfect example for imminent reversal in trend on cycle degree:

a) the green 4 is an contracting triangle, giving a hint, that the next wave down on cyle degree is the last move down

b) the green 5 is an ending contracting diagonal. An ending diagonal is then build, when market thinks that thinks have gone to far to fast


Overall message is:

out of my view we have only a few hundred pips risk to the downside, but several thousand pips potential to the upside.

the cahnnel looks like the pattern are tired to down....hehehe

just my 2 cent from ur chart view

Yes, the downside momentum is clearly waning. You can see it very good at the following 2-weekly chart.

There is a huge divergence in Awesome oscillator and price movement

looks like it will break that level.....

Something is cooking in this market alright. Commercial traders DOUBLED their short holdings in yen futures and open interest risen 25% last week. It must be a short yen coming in.

I also agree. From my point of view I see and hope for another drop here. :-)
Let´s see....

Short yen = long usd/jpy. It might test some lows before advance.
It is a hard call as long term usd/jpy is big time bearish given FED monetary policy and BOJ actions.

the proble still with the fed rate low rate.....if fed hike the rate n rate to be normal as like before..everything will be ok..

There is no way they hike the rate. This will blow up all the US banks. They only exist thanks to low rates. I cant see how it might be ok any time soon. There are elections in few months, than FED will inflate further but never cut the rate. Unless Ron Paul wins

thats the problem now.....the market still not stabalize because of that.....
if u realize after the 2008 crisis....

Correct. The whole feckin world is in the hole thank to low interest rates and idiots in FED, ECB, BOJ. Greensapn is the master of disaster. Bernanke has no clue about economics. I am telling you vote ron paul (if you can)

im malaysian...

and who is him?huhu

Lucky you!

Its time to pump a few billion into the system or maybe Azumi is writing a new script as "watching closely" lost its appeal.

hope to see boj also....i hope shirakawa n jun azumi back to oversea give a hope for us..haha

Yen looks like the best point to WEAKEN if we seen boj in near term or etc

Doesn't sound too positive. Let's hope Azumi doesn't give up and intervenes asap .... so we can short it once again. LOL




Intervention fails as yen is poised to strengthen

Bloomberg
There was no better currency than the yen last year and strategists forecast more gains this year, even as Japan promises to intervene again in foreign exchange markets and expands the world's biggest debt burden.

The yen's advance against every major currency illustrated the anxiety in global markets as Europe's debt crisis stretched into a second year on the heels of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the U.S. housing market crash.
Japanese officials sold at least ¥14.3 trillion last year to stem gains that cut profits for exporters and Finance Minister Jun Azumi has pledged more action. Intervention in 2012 may fail again as financial turmoil attracts investors to the world's third-most traded currency for its low volatility.
"When avoiding losses trumps profits during a period of risk aversion, low-volatility assets are very appealing," Masashi Murata, a currency strategist in Tokyo at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., said last month. "When the U.S. and Europe moved in a bad direction and people wanted to avoid risk, the yen stood as the only currency that had enough liquidity to absorb demand."
Besides its gains against the dollar, the world's primary reserve currency, the yen is also the best performer among major peers after filtering out price swings, strengthening 0.5 percent, according to risk-adjusted return data compiled by Bloomberg.
Japan's is the only Group of 10 currency seen rising versus the greenback next quarter, strengthening to 77 per dollar by March 31, analyst forecasts show.
Gains in the yen underscore the retreat from risk and losses in carry trades, whereby investors borrow in low-interest regimes to invest in higher-risk, higher-return assets elsewhere.
Carry trades involving borrowing yen to invest in the currencies of Australia, South Africa, Mexico and Brazil have lost 9.1 percent this year, according to Bloomberg data, reversing a 1 percent gain in 2010.
Japan may lose 600,000 jobs if the yen stays at current levels, pushing carmakers to shift production overseas, according to a Nov. 21 report compiled by Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yukio Edano and posted on the website of the National Policy Unit that reports to Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda.
"The environment will remain harsh for exporters because they have to make a business plan taking account of the stronger yen," said Hiroshi Morikawa, a lead economist at the Institute for International Monetary Affairs in Tokyo, which conducts research projects commissioned by the government. "Japan's economy is still reliant on exports, so the yen's appreciation has direct impact over employment, too."
The yen's surge to a postwar high of 75.35 to the dollar on Oct. 31 prompted Azumi to order the nation's third intervention of the year that day. He said Dec. 20 he wants the ability to take "decisive" action in explaining a ministry plan to raise its intervention war chest to more than ¥65 trillion.
A previous yen record of 79.75 reached in April 1995 stood until March 11, when the earthquake and tsunami wreaked havoc on the Tohoku region, stoking speculation that companies would repatriate overseas assets to pay for rebuilding. The currency jumped to 76.25 on March 17, prompting coordinated action by the nations in the Group of Seven the next day.
The Swiss National Bank has had more success controlling its currency by imposing a ceiling on the franc at 1.20 per euro in September.

at this point i want to bold sumthing that for me is more interesting part...

the carry trade

if u realize....the unwinding of yen carry is when yen is about 125....till now...so from 2008 us had cut the rate.....


both of them have lower rate....but US get the safe-haven status late than yen after fed cut rate..now seem like trader hold more yen than usd...thats why we see it is so hard to "pull out" the speculator from their position...

Are you sure your not heavily long?