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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #18,761
  • Jan 10, 2012 12:44pm Jan 10, 2012 12:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwxhUVn-neE

Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,762
  • Jan 10, 2012 12:47pm Jan 10, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting bumapatria
nice Pa spotting there ty

gosh i cant sleep its 3:42 am!


cant sleep - cant play guitar - already read coupla my leisure reads - already analyzed markets for tommorow - cant play my electric guitar - cant watch tv parents would wake up - cant thsi cant that LOL

must wait for 5 am before chaos enters again! (aka sleep)
just think what toooooooo much 'puter time does....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,763
  • Jan 10, 2012 12:48pm Jan 10, 2012 12:48pm
Quoting bumapatria
nice Pa spotting there ty

gosh i cant sleep its 3:42 am!


cant sleep - cant play guitar - already read coupla my leisure reads - already analyzed markets for tommorow - cant play my electric guitar - cant watch tv parents would wake up - cant thsi cant that LOL

must wait for 5 am before chaos enters again! (aka sleep)
Here you go mate. Sleep like a dog.

BTW mate, can you point me in the right direction to study momentum patterns/candles that you have seen on the PIE or RTP threads?
  • #18,764
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:24pm Jan 10, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting Tyoon
Here you go mate. Sleep like a dog.

BTW mate, can you point me in the right direction to study momentum patterns/candles that you have seen on the PIE or RTP threads?
LOL to islanders post hahaha

------------------------------

think of price moving in waves... up... down .. up down. not all exceed the starting point of the other. the easiest pa trade is retest of old support or old res. with confluence of say retracement ratios, trendliens, chart pattern etc. to view momentum try to see who is in power - is bulls controlling the battlefield? which candles have more 'color' than the other? when momentum decreases and suppyl and demand buyign and selling is at a balance - bars get smaller say from an uptrend into supply zone example price bars gets smaller and smaller. why? sellers stepping in. if u see any strange wicks in an area before the entry of supply or demand - that could tell u that profit taking is in place and buying/selling is happening at that wick/wicks. u can almost manipulate levels easily.
since i view charts 30min above - i watch those wicks.

theres also playign high probability zones - just because they are high probability. thats another story with PPA - past price action.



but heres a pic to help u out
on crude
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #18,765
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:30pm Jan 10, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting bumapatria
LOL to islanders post hahaha

------------------------------

think of price moving in waves... up... down .. up down. not all exceed the starting point of the other. the easiest pa trade is retest of old support or old res. with confluence of say retracement ratios, trendliens, chart pattern etc. to view momentum try to see who is in power - is bulls controlling the battlefield? which candles have more 'color' than the other? when momentum decreases and suppyl and demand buyign and selling is at a balance - bars get smaller say from an uptrend...
interesting on supply demand concept
Bismillah
  • #18,766
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:30pm Jan 10, 2012 1:30pm
more for ty

gbp usd




even though its past - ONE MUST use the past to forever remember possible occurences in similarity in the future. thats all about adapting once u forward trade it.
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Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #18,767
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:32pm Jan 10, 2012 1:32pm
this is my analysis from prev saturday
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Bismillah
  • #18,768
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:32pm Jan 10, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting Islander
Here's an even better one

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #18,769
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:37pm Jan 10, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting krunfx
this is my analysis from prev saturday
thanks krun -


god u make me wanna tp my 100p short lol

i set a +10 stop in case. as for any long setups ill post them for sure to see if the break is valid.


crazy governments these days...

America = Hey guys check out my nuclear bomb test!
England + Europe + other buddies lol = wow... look at ours - we also got some
America = cool dudes thats totally fine by me..

Iran = We are here to announce that..
America = TERRORISTS TERRORSITS! u cant have nuclear stuff! didnt u heard? only me and my buddies can.

North korea = but thats not..
America= communists! u cant either!




thats how dirty life is today. i totally dont agree with all this shit going on in the world.
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #18,770
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:42pm Jan 10, 2012 1:42pm
Thanks for your charts Buma. Learned a few things from those two charts.

You're doing damn fine for a 14yr old.

Here is a drawover I did today on IM's chart.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1326231410

..
  • #18,771
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:46pm Jan 10, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting ealexander
Hi, people i have just joined the forum.

Great analysis in this thread.

Pip Trapper you mentioned that you are working on a 1.34 longer term short position in eur/usd.

At this current time my analysis shows me that an ideal short position to hold is 1.28100 until Spanish Bond Auction Results and Italian Bond Auction Results on Friday. I don't expect the results to be good seeing that the latest French auction was worst than expected. And i would deem France being a much more stable economy than both Italy and Spain put together.

(Looking...
I enjoyed reading your comments. Keep in mind every day is a new day. Look to see what data comes out in Europe and North America on Wednesday.

Ladies Day on Wednesday Folks Merkel and Lagarde on Greece. That should be fun. You blew it DFK and now the Two Ladies are in charge.

I will watch Asia and see how the pattern compares to today. If the market are negative in Europe do not expect EUR/USD to go up unless there is INTERVENTION afoot.

Then we watch the Dow Futures and see what Oil and Gold does and decide if we have Risk On or Risk Off.

As of the moment I have NO TRADE PLAN. I am only at the stage of thinking about a Trade Plan.

WElcome Aboard...
  • #18,772
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:50pm Jan 10, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting Tyoon
Thanks for your charts Buma. Learned a few things from those two charts.

You're doing damn fine for a 14yr old.

Here is a drawover I did today on IM's chart.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1326231410

..
it tumble due triple top i think....but since iran concern..we can see it start rise n rise...
Bismillah
  • #18,773
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:51pm Jan 10, 2012 1:51pm
Quoting knoholygrail
I enjoyed reading your comments. Keep in mind every day is a new day. Look to see what data comes out in Europe and North America on Wednesday.

Ladies Day on Wednesday Folks Merkel and Lagarde on Greece. That should be fun. You blew it DFK and now the Two Ladies are in charge.

I will watch Asia and see how the pattern compares to today. If the market are negative in Europe do not expect EUR/USD to go up unless there is INTERVENTION afoot.

Then we watch the Dow Futures and see what Oil and Gold does and decide if we have Risk On or Risk Off....
Wednesday, Jan 11th

03:00 EUR Germany 2011 Budget & GDP

04:30 GBP Trade Balance

09:00 USD FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks

10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

14:00 USD Beige Book

20:30 CNY CPI; PPI


Thursday, Jan 12th

04:30 GBP Manufacturing Production

05:00 EUR Industrial Production

07:00 GBP Asset Purchase Facility; Official Bank Rate; MPC Rate Statement

07:45 EUR Minimum Bid Rate

08:30 CAD NHPI

08:30 EUR ECB Press Conference

08:30 USD Core Retail Sales; Retail Sales; Unemployment Claims

10:00 GBP UK Dec NIESR GDP Estimate

10:00 USD Business Inventories

10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage

14:00 USD Federal Budget Balance

Friday, Jan 13th

04:30 GBP PPI Input

08:30 CAD Trade Balance

08:30 USD Trade Balance; Import Prices

09:55 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
  • #18,774
  • Jan 10, 2012 1:53pm Jan 10, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting Tyoon
Thanks for your charts Buma. Learned a few things from those two charts.

You're doing damn fine for a 14yr old.

Here is a drawover I did today on IM's chart.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1326231410

..

nice work ty -

i have to say tahts some kickass chart drawover at work. but in the end - theres level playing + understanding what is happening at the area. why it happened and what it means is PA in the end. s/r supply demand are PPA - past price action.

on ur drawover i see an area where u were confused why price based in demand with a "hmmm" . well look to the left in the downtrend's near end there is a pin - indicates buying. okay its still selling - but it aint. really - next time price reaches back there THOSE BUYERS at the pin;s bid price woudl like to go long again to defend their position.

on ur first drawn flag after the drop base drop price rises but it was a bear flag right? not quite. u had some willing buyers taht tilted the dynamic of suppply and demand.buying point of buyers. the first buyers came it at the first bull candle in the flag in which buyers dominated. after that u see another buying wick - more buying happening. notice the buying wick sort of a pin near the end with a good followthrough that is the fulcrum of the last

and then u got the expanding wedge - on this part u have an averagedly spread out bearish bar but at the lower belt of the wedge u got a buying wick. i wouldnt long there but notice when price came back - buyers defended their positions at that wick. see how the momenntum is then larger? those who miss the first train will go in the second one.



and at the right side of ur chart (its not PA but ill say it nonetheless) is a mirror cycle at play. those wedge are perfectly mirrored and observe the matching highs.

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #18,775
  • Edited 1:56pm Jan 10, 2012 1:55pm | Edited 1:56pm

16:49 FNMA CEO Mike Williams to resign; No details on timing and reasons for resignation - CNBC- UPDATE
- Williams has been CEO since 2009.

Great Job Man
  • #18,776
  • Edited 2:07pm Jan 10, 2012 1:59pm | Edited 2:07pm

Today 3:53 PM

(GR) Debt deal on Greece bonds may be announced as early as next week; Deal to contain 50% haircut targeted previously; Restructuring may be forced if needed - US financial press - Negotiators prepared to drop voluntary restructuring component. - EU leaders to discuss 2nd bailo... (related: JPY/EUR EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/USD BUNDS NBG )more...
  • #18,777
  • Jan 10, 2012 2:01pm Jan 10, 2012 2:01pm
just my view for recent 15 min chart

hope to see more movement....
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Bismillah
  • #18,778
  • Jan 10, 2012 2:07pm Jan 10, 2012 2:07pm
January 10, 2011
2012 Will Mark the End of the Euro
The Euro-zone in its current form is in its final chapter. Anyone who argues otherwise is not paying attention.

Consider the Greek situation. Greece's debt problems first made mainstream media headline news at the beginning of 2009. The IMF/ EU/ ECB/ and Federal Reserve have been working on this situation for two years now. And they've yet to solve anything: after two bailouts, significant debt write-downs, and numerous austerity measures, Greece remains bankrupt.

Now, if the Powers That Be cannot solve Greece's problems... what makes anyone think that they can address larger, more dangerous issues such as Italy or France, etc?

Consider that the world's central banks staged a coordinated intervention in November... and Italy's ten year is back yielding more than 7% less than two months later. Again, a coordinated intervention by the world's central banks bought less than two months' time for Italy.

And now we find the debt contagion spreading to France:
French Debt Costs Rise at Bond Sale as AAA Decision Looms
France sold 7.96 billion euros ($10.2 billion) of debt, with 10-year borrowing costs rising in the country's first bond auction of the year as credit-rating companies threaten to cut the nation's AAA grade.
The government sold 4.02 billion euros of the bonds maturing in October 2021 at an average yield of 3.29 percent, from 3.18 percent on Dec. 1. The euro fell to its weakest level against the dollar in 15 months, and the extra yield investors demand to hold French 10-year bonds instead of benchmark German bunds widened to the most in about six weeks.

"There's still the threat of a downgrade hanging over France and until we get that situation cleared up you can't signal the all-clear," said Eric Wand, a fixed-income strategist at Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets in London.

France has the biggest debt burden of the six top-rated euro nations, at 85 percent of gross domestic product. Its 10- year yield spread to German debt widened to a 21-year high of 204 basis points on Nov. 17 amid concern Europe will struggle to contain the region's debt crisis. Today, it reached 151 basis points, or 1.51 percentage points, the most since Nov. 25. It was at 149 basis points at 5:39 p.m. Paris time compared with a premium of 47 basis points for AAA rated Finland and 39 basis points for the Netherlands.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ion-looms.html

The significance of this cannot be overstated. European nations need to roll over hundreds of billions if not trillions of Euros' worth of debt in 2012. And this is at a time when even more solvent members such as France and Germany are staging weak and failed auctions.

Maturing Debt Plus Budget Deficit as a % of GDP 20112012Portugal21.6%21.0%Italy22.8%23.1%Ireland19.5%18.0%Greece24.0%26.0%Spain19.3%18.7%UK15.7%13.6%France20.6%19.7%Germany11.4%10.5%

Previously, EU sovereign nations would rely on European banks for these debt needs. However, European banks have their own debt issuance problems to deal with. To wit, before the end of 2012...

  1. French banks need to roll over 30% of their TOTAL debt.
  2. Spanish banks and Italian banks need to rollover more than 33% of their TOTAL debt.
  3. German banks need to roll over nearly 40% of their TOTAL debt.
  4. Irish banks need to roll over almost HALF (50%) of their TOTAL debt.

Thus, the question becomes: WHO is going to buy all this debt? China's increasingly focusing on domestic issues. Japan is on the verge of its own solvency Crisis. And the US is running terrible Debt to GDP and Deficit to GDP ratios as well.

Again... who's going to put up the funds to roll over this debt? The only player that could possibly do that would be the ECB. But Germany won't stand for that level of debt monetization. And the Fed can't monetize everything in today's political climate

Thus, the fact remains: the EU in its current form will be broken up sometime in 2012. The Powers That Be are rapidly losing control over there. And once the stuff really hits the fan, it's going to make 2008 look like a joke.


Graham Summers

No Link . Came In A Email . Commercial In Nature

  • #18,779
  • Jan 10, 2012 2:08pm Jan 10, 2012 2:08pm
thanks fren for share.........................
Bismillah
  • #18,780
  • Jan 10, 2012 2:23pm Jan 10, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting bumapatria
on ur drawover i see an area where u were confused why price based in demand with a "hmmm"...
on ur first drawn flag after the drop base drop price rises but it was a bear flag right? not quite. u had some willing buyers taht tilted the dynamic of suppply and demand.buying point of buyers. the first buyers came it at the first bull candle in the flag in which buyers dominated. after that u see another buying wick - more buying happening. notice the buying wick sort of a pin near the end with a good followthrough that is the fulcrum of the last...
Wicks are pretty important aye

I am going to do some study on candles to understand their structure because a lot of times they can be ambiguous because of their open/close times. If you go to the 1m chart and zoom all the way out things obviously look a bit different without candle structure.

For example, if you open up the candles of an engulfing candle pattern you should see a variation of a Quazi chart pattern.
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