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  • #1,901
  • Jan 9, 2012 1:05pm Jan 9, 2012 1:05pm
Here're two more commodity currency ...

Careful if shorting these two coz ... the more deeper it goes ... the more big guns will be happy to collect it ...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_30m_011.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd_30m_011.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,902
  • Jan 9, 2012 1:23pm Jan 9, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting VennD
Here're two more commodity currency ...

Careful if shorting these two coz ... the more deeper it goes ... the more big guns will be happy to collect it ...
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #1,903
  • Jan 9, 2012 1:31pm Jan 9, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
hahaha ... that's the fact , man !
  • #1,904
  • Jan 9, 2012 1:34pm Jan 9, 2012 1:34pm
Question for some of you pro usd/cad people. Why does Forex Factory have the outcome for the building permits (3.6) listed in red? Shouldnt it be green being that it actually came out MORE than forecasted? Im glad I didnt blindly pull the trigger for a buy on this pair as I sometimes do (admittedly) in order to catch the wave as early as possible. Anyone know why that number is red instead of green? Am I missing something or is this just a mistake by FF? I havent yet looked at any of the other Calendars out there. I guess ill do that know.
  • #1,905
  • Edited 7:34pm Jan 9, 2012 1:44pm | Edited 7:34pm
Quoting shocfacter
Question for some of you pro usd/cad people. Why does Forex Factory have the outcome for the building permits (3.6) listed in red? Shouldnt it be green being that it actually came out MORE than forecasted? Im glad I didnt blindly pull the trigger for a buy on this pair as I sometimes do (admittedly) in order to catch the wave as early as possible. Anyone know why that number is red instead of green? Am I missing something or is this just a mistake by FF? I havent yet looked at any of the other Calendars out there. I guess ill do that know.
It is written as negative 3.6 ( -3.6 ) ... sell U/C ... short scalp ... imo

+11.9 ---> -3.9

edit : Suppose to buy USD which is buy U/C but this particular data has its own votality ( abt 10-20 pips up and down )... so ... careful IF shorting U/C (at this point in time). I said ... short scalp.
  • #1,906
  • Edited 2:32pm Jan 9, 2012 2:25pm | Edited 2:32pm
what's happening right now ...

attached :

i) USD_CAD_Indexes 30m
ii) USDLFX 4h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfx_4h_011.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #1,907
  • Edited 2:55pm Jan 9, 2012 2:50pm | Edited 2:55pm
US Consumer Credit Change +7.65B ---> +20.37B (more than consensus of 8.7B).

There you go ... u still wanna short U/C ?
  • #1,908
  • Jan 9, 2012 3:04pm Jan 9, 2012 3:04pm
Quoting VennD
US Consumer Credit Change +7.65B ---> +20.37B (more than consensus of 8.7B).

There you go ... u still wanna short U/C ?
I think U/C can go down significantly more. I might be wrong though. I am looking and the general markets, and they look bullish to me. Usually when the markets go up the U/C goes down.
  • #1,909
  • Edited 5:51pm Jan 9, 2012 4:36pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting canadian
I think U/C can go down significantly more. I might be wrong though. I am looking and the general markets, and they look bullish to me. Usually when the markets go up the U/C goes down.
Probably so ... am just scalping up and down ... no worries

The Moustache Ride ...

Oooops !!! It's the screen upper right corner ... where else to go ... ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,910
  • Jan 9, 2012 4:41pm Jan 9, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting VennD
Probably so ... am just scalping up and down ... no worries
Hi Venn,

I've been long since 1.0190 and target to 1.0420 which IMHO is the top of the current pennant. Of course I am ready to stay in if it break out to previous highs of 1.06XX. However, I had planned a retrace of 30% once it reaches the top of the pennant and then back up again. Sadly though, I think it was a miscalculation because it's just retraced 80+ pips (
  • #1,911
  • Jan 9, 2012 4:51pm Jan 9, 2012 4:51pm
Hi,

Even though this one is for Venn, I will try to answer it, hope he doesn't mind :-).

You are right about the range:
http://screencast.com/t/JOjUhZrYtooC

It is not the perfect world though, so you can't assume that it will hit the top right away of your range. I mean it can happen later. Tomorrow can be a totally different story. This pair is very tricky right now. Many analysts predict the oil to go up (CND to go up), but most people believe the the stocks will be hammered this year (USD will go up), so hard to say what will happen to this pair.

I believe that the dow had another 350-400 points to go up to complete the bulls run. In my view U/C should go down. This "forecast" I am making is not a day trading forecast. It may be long time thing.

Happy trading!

Quoting D2tz
Hi Venn,

I've been long since 1.0190 and target to 1.0420 which IMHO is the top of the current pennant. Of course I am ready to stay in if it break out to previous highs of 1.06XX. However, I had planned a retrace of 30% once it reaches the top of the pennant and then back up again. Sadly though, I think it was a miscalculation because it's just retraced 80+ pips (
  • #1,912
  • Jan 9, 2012 4:56pm Jan 9, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting canadian
Hi,

Even though this one is for Venn, I will try to answer it, hope he doesn't mind :-).

You are right about the range:
http://screencast.com/t/JOjUhZrYtooC

It is not the perfect world though, so you can't assume that it will hit the top right away of your range. I mean it can happen later. Tomorrow can be a totally different story. This pair is very tricky right now. Many analysts predict the oil to go up (CND to go up), but most people believe the the stocks will be hammered this year (USD will go up), so hard to say what will happen...
You may be almost there, you forgot to factor in a correlation shift away from USD up means stocks down. If you have noticed, stocks have been up while USD up (NFP) So even though NFP was positive EU/GU went down. USD may rally with NYSE, and so would oil, so U/C may be ranging to UP because USD can go up during risk aversion aswell as NYSE rally's
  • #1,913
  • Jan 9, 2012 4:58pm Jan 9, 2012 4:58pm
Thank you for the fundamental insight.
At this point though, on technical basis I was under the impression that it had enough momentum from Friday and Sunday to go up and touch the top. But the 80 pip reversal is going to be hard to recoup.. and considering the fundies you've shared with me, it looks like the belief and consensus is to the down side for now. Besides, if we take the previous wave, as the top of the pennant rather than the 2 before, then it has somewhat already reached the top. I guess I might have to settle for the 40 some pips made and wait for a clearer direction. Holding my long position seems like a waste at this point. If we were only 30 pips behind the recent top of 1.0320, then Ièd still have hopes for a continuation. But this is a major setback.. And USD/CAD only moves on average 90 pips a day.

Quoting canadian
Hi,

Even though this one is for Venn, I will try to answer it, hope he doesn't mind :-).

You are right about the range:
http://screencast.com/t/JOjUhZrYtooC

It is not the perfect world though, so you can't assume that it will hit the top right away of your range. I mean it can happen later. Tomorrow can be a totally different story. This pair is very tricky right now. Many analysts predict the oil to go up (CND to go up), but most people believe the the stocks will be hammered this year (USD will go up), so hard to say what...
  • #1,914
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:01pm Jan 9, 2012 5:01pm
I was short since Friday, and added some positions during the weekend. Actually broke even, because didn't have guts to hold a large position. I think the consensus on ForexPros was actually bullish on U/C yesterday.


Quoting D2tz
Thank you for the fundamental insight.
At this point though, on technical basis I was under the impression that it had enough momentum from Friday and Sunday to go up and touch the top. But the 80 pip reversal is going to be hard to recup.. and considering what the fundies you've shared with my, it looks like the belief and consensus is to the down side for now. Besides, if we wate the previous wave, as the top of the pennant rather than the 2 before, then it has somewhat already reached the top. I guess I might have to settle for the 40 some pips...
  • #1,915
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:04pm Jan 9, 2012 5:04pm
For a long time investors bought USD if the stocks went down (they dump the risky assets). This is a base of my assumption, doesn't work all the time of course.

Actually now any pair with USD can be risky because the fed can come up with a new round of easing anytime. Even rumours of easing will be costly. :-).

Quoting sidhujag
You may be almost there, you forgot to factor in a correlation shift away from USD up means stocks down. If you have noticed, stocks have been up while USD up (NFP) So even though NFP was positive EU/GU went down. USD may rally with NYSE, and so would oil, so U/C may be ranging to UP because USD can go up during risk aversion aswell as NYSE rally's
  • #1,916
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:07pm Jan 9, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting canadian
For a long time investors bought USD if the stocks went down (they dump the risky assets). This is a base of my assumption, doesn't work all the time of course.

Actually now any pair with USD can be risky because the fed can come up with a new round of easing anytime. Even rumours of easing will be costly. :-).
I understand, and I am saying that assumptions are made to be broken. Maybe throughout most of 2012 alot of retailers will be trapped into thinking that they figured out what moves the market.

USD may rise with GOLD/OIL/STOCKS at the expense of other currencies. Doesn't sound like it is a sound plan but it's what PA indicates.

QE or no QE there is no alternative for investment other than USD. EUR will fall before USD that is what the big players are betting with this move I think.
  • #1,917
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:11pm Jan 9, 2012 5:11pm
I don't know, my view of the charts is that USD is going to fall. I am not experienced trader though, so you are probably right. The time will tell. The best thing as you know is avoid predictions, but just to follow the trend :-)



Quoting sidhujag
I understand, and I am saying that assumptions are made to be broken. Maybe throughout most of 2012 alot of retailers will be trapped into thinking that they figured out what moves the market.

USD may rise with GOLD/OIL/STOCKS at the expense of other currencies. Doesn't sound like it is a sound plan but it's what PA indicates.

QE or no QE there is no alternative for investment other than USD. EUR will fall before USD that is what the big players are betting with this move I think.
  • #1,918
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:16pm Jan 9, 2012 5:16pm
Quoting canadian
I don't know, my view of the charts is that USD is going to fall. I am not experienced trader though, so you are probably right. The time will tell. The best thing as you know is avoid predictions, but just to follow the trend :-)

Yup well if you look at jan NFP last year we saw the same pattern, a big rise into NFP and then a few days later it fell hard, you may be right on the technical side... and we may see a drift lower, but on a monthly scale I'm pretty confident that usdx will go up under many circumstances. Ppl will have to find good reasons to short it, which is probabyl what retailers will do since they love picking tops trying to make a million in one trade lol.
  • #1,919
  • Jan 9, 2012 5:23pm Jan 9, 2012 5:23pm
it looks like the 38% line from the Fib traced from Jan 3rd low to Jan 8th high may hold. That's my last indication to get out of the trade. We're pretty close to it, but it's still holding.
  • #1,920
  • Jan 9, 2012 6:07pm Jan 9, 2012 6:07pm
Quoting canadian
Hi,

Even though this one is for Venn, I will try to answer it, hope he doesn't mind :-)...
That's ok , man . I don't mind at all
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