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  • #18,181
  • Jan 7, 2012 11:34am Jan 7, 2012 11:34am
Quoting redteamgo
there is a Sarkozy/Merkel meeting on January 9th which will undoubtedly have some kind of effect on monday/tuesday market oscillation. this is followed by a meeting of European leaders on January 30th. i dont know if this can truly be considered a "summit;" i may have used summit in error rather than "meeting."

edit: MW is calling it a summit, i guess its a summit

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mer...MW_latest_news

It is fact that before summit EUR tends to rise ... lots of short positions can be taken by that upward move ... considering Eur is very close to historical support .... I would expect not straightly upward move but little bit more head-down and then some upward wild bounce ... but I will closely watch for good sale points ... if i buy in intraday then that would be for very short time.
  • #18,182
  • Edited 12:03pm Jan 7, 2012 12:01pm | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting rekon67
As per the below article says people will not surprise if EUR being traded below 1.2 in next couple of months ... all the technicals which are majorly indicating 1.2 level can not be wrong ... and to prove the long term technicals wrong EUR needs to be convincing and strong enough from now on ... but,

EUR can only be strong if it able to convince the entire EuroZone people and that can not happen within over-night. Most of the people psychology now to see Eur trading below @1.2 ... may be at that time the satisfaction will come in and that will...
I really hope everyone on posts on this thread reads it and those like PipTrapper and others who have the background to understand it comment on it. I see things so clearly now because of this brilliant work that I can now know what to watch for in the future.

All comments and opinions are welcome. It is well worth your 10 minutes or so to read and inform yourself.

A Strong Recommendation To Read It !!!

http://www.gordontlong.com/articles/art-2011-12-cc.pdf
  • #18,183
  • Edited 12:19pm Jan 7, 2012 12:02pm | Edited 12:19pm
i have been toying with my thoughts for what lies ahead for 2012. i usually try to plan for bigger picture movememnts. for the longer term traders, this is my look at what is in store for 2012.

my assumptions are the following:

  1. there will be a retrace that is capped by TL IV, probably channel IV-A
  2. price will likely be contained in the blue 2011 channel labeled IV-A at least until TARGET 1
  3. the US will continue positive growth through 2012
  4. the EZ will not break up but the crisis will perpetuate through all of next year
  5. continued threats of a member state in the EZ leaving due to extreme levels of civil unrest due to austerity, bailout measures, etc ad nauseum


i think we can all agree that there will be a moment of sentiment that can be described as nothing less than despair. subsequently, a significant event will occur that will drive a large technical retrace that will be capped by TL IV at the most in my chart. while past performance is obviously not an indicator of future movement, i think probability favors that the technical retrace occurring from the aforementioned scenario will probably be capped by 2-4 cents upward just outside of the IV-A channel many of us have come to love so much.

the US has posted good economic growth numbers this season. it seems that growth will continue, albeit shaky & slowly. compared to the imminent problems in europe, we are carrying a royal flush.

to the chart... its possible the market will disregard Merkozy's upcoming commentary from Jan 9th entirely. i would expect a dip into the 26's where the 2600-2640 demand zone is tested as early as next week. price will likely consolidate afterwards possibly due to additional Merkozy lip service. leading up to the January 30th summit, i would expect a small uptick of 1-1.5 cents leading up to the summit with another possible 1-2 cents afterwards bring us into the 2900-3000 contained in the IV-A channel but well underneath the outer band.

we have an awesomely bearish outlook for the next 6-8 weeks as 4Q11 US earnings are starting to come out. certain materials companies may fare well due to the supposed growth in construction and employment. however, what was expected to be outstanding holiday sales has been tepid at best which will drag on US retail equity prices post earnings-release. really, US equities are the only ray of light in the world-wide equity market at this time (correct me if i am wrong).

Greece's bailout has been shifted to Mar '12. they are already threatening to leave the EZ. is this saber rattling? I think it probably was 3-6 months ago but one must question whether their loyalties lie with the monetary union or their of sovereign state. the answer is clearly the latter. According to FT, europe has about 800bln to roll over in 2012. GS assesses this as closer to 1tln. i think we know how european financial earnings are going to look for 4Q11. if the euro zone regional banks actually start to write off any debt, there will be huge sell-offs for 1Q12 earnings. look at the impact of Unicredit's attempt to raise capital through a discounted issuance of equity. this screams insolvency and desperation. the sum it up, there is a lot of fuel to drive bears well into 2Q12 if not EOY 2012.

---

the likelihood of member state leaving the EZ seems likely. civil unrest will be extreme in places where unemployment exceeds 20-25%, a government may be toppled causing a default during a time where massive amounts of debt remain to be rolled over. the ECB is imposing their austerity in a time where growth is needed most. this will likely backfire in at least one instance. if a member state leaves may result in a move to parity inside of a calendar month.

however, despite my qualitatively assessed high probability of a member state leaving, the core EZ will not break; the ECB and federal reserve won't allow this to happen. the central banks will print themselves into a fiat oblivion before they allow the euro currency system to fail on a global scale.

---

i have forecasted my zones based on time elapsed in conjunction with future flow of events. as you are probably thinking, a fundamental change will negate all a lot of the bearish behavior. assuming the survival of the euro, this simply becomes a function of time. take the above and below with a grain of salt. i'm not married to this view but is how i perceive the near future to unravel. if events call for a change, i will, obviously, adapt accordingly.

Target 1: Mid-month January
Target 2: Late February
Target 3: May/June
Target 4: 3Q12
beyond 4 is well past the scope of my thoughts at this time but is certainly not out of the question for 2012.

good luck to all. have a nice weekend.

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  • #18,184
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:02pm Jan 7, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting redteamgo
there is a Sarkozy/Merkel meeting on January 9th which will undoubtedly have some kind of effect on monday/tuesday market oscillation. this is followed by a meeting of European leaders on January 30th. i dont know if this can truly be considered a "summit;" i may have used summit in error rather than "meeting."

edit: MW is calling it a summit, i guess its a summit

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mer...MW_latest_news
A Strong Recommendation To Read It !!!

http://www.gordontlong.com/articles/art-2011-12-cc.pdf
  • #18,185
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:14pm Jan 7, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting redteamgo
i have been toying with my thoughts and lies ahead for 2012. i usually try to plan for bigger picture movememnts. for the longer term traders, this is my look at what is in store for 2012.


my assumptions are the following:[list][*]there will be a retrace that is capped by TL IV, probably channel IV-A[*]price will likely be contained in the blue 2011 channel labeled IV-A at least until TARGET 1[*]the US will continue positive growth through 2012[*]the EZ will not break up but the crisis will perpetuate through all of next year[*]continued...
If I had not read the Gordon T Long Brilliant Essay and I have followed him for years now I would probably agree with your thoughts which I still do in part.

The main point I want to elaborate on is that the ECB and FED cannot keep control for much longer. The US Economy while on the surface appears to be recovering is not really. Aside from that what happens in the next 90 days in Europe will affect the USA 100% guaranteed. then we also will see focus turn to the USA which has a bigger debt problem than anyone along with a deadlocked government.

No assumptions can be sure as we probably are on the edge of a Black Swan event. Iran just might be their (Powers That Be) reason to force the hand of Iran and start a conflict to distract the masses with the real issues in Europe and the USA. Add to this China planning their moves with the Hammer that they have being the main fianancier of the USA.

Please read the Gordon T Long article and see if your views remain the same. They might remain the same however you need to be aware of the facts on the ground. That's only my point of view of course. Have a great weekend as well.
  • #18,186
  • Edited 1:01pm Jan 7, 2012 12:34pm | Edited 1:01pm
Quoting knoholygrail
If I had not read the Gordon T Long Brilliant Essay and I have followed him for years now I would probably agree with your thoughts which I still do in part.

The main point I want to elaborate on is that the ECB and FED cannot keep control for much longer. The US Economy while on the surface appears to be recovering is not really. Aside from that what happens in the next 90 days in Europe will affect the USA 100% guaranteed. then we also will see focus turn to the USA which has a bigger debt problem than anyone along with a deadlocked government....
Actually I agree in many respects. I do think the fed and ecb can maintain control for some time. at least another 10-20 years. there is a very very serious problem with fiat currencies right now. take a gander at the STL fed's monetary base charts. growth is negative despite the massive amount of printing. what is the solution? more printing to the tune of previous precedents? if that is the case, i simply dont know what to do other than to smoke some hopium.

Dennis Gartman called attention to this on Friday. This is an excerpt of some of his thoughts:
Quote
QE II ended last June. One cannot help but notice then
that since the end of “QE,” we’ve had QU … quantitative
un-ease… since. Worse, since July of last year, one of
the most basic of the base’s components… the cash
component of M1… has risen by $40 billion even as the
base itself has fallen by approximately $160 billion. I
other words, had it not been for the continued rise in
cash the base would be even more sharply lower than it
is. We ascertain then that largest portion of the decline
in the base has to be due to the decline in the Fed’s
holdings of Treasury securities and this is archly
disinflationary
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Any prices quoted are futures
  • #18,187
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:37pm Jan 7, 2012 12:37pm
Quoting redteamgo
i have been toying with my thoughts for what lies ahead for 2012..
fast, fresh, simple ...
http://www.lifestylefood.com.au/cont...le_Header1.jpg
  • #18,188
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:51pm Jan 7, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting rekon67
For you only .. enjoy!
http://www.endofworld.net/
Ha Ha Ha Love it
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #18,189
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:56pm Jan 7, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting redteamgo
there is a Sarkozy/Merkel meeting on January 9th which will undoubtedly have some kind of effect on monday/tuesday market oscillation. this is followed by a meeting of European leaders on January 30th. i dont know if this can truly be considered a "summit;" i may have used summit in error rather than "meeting."

edit: MW is calling it a summit, i guess its a summit

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mer...MW_latest_news
Oh great. In that case we can kiss that anticipated correction goodbye. Most of the previous summits have been euro bearish.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #18,190
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:12pm Jan 7, 2012 1:12pm

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  • #18,191
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:12pm Jan 7, 2012 1:12pm
I draw lines. Here are my lines.

The fist is EURUSD daily. I agree with red that we will see 1.26 soon. But as PT said the other day, 'when will it cheap enough to buy?'

Correlation has gone out the window last week between metals, equities and the currencies (please correct me if you think otherwise). I believe this is partly because of the large divergence of good and bad sentiment between EU and US.

It has all been about the dollar especially in the past few months. The EUR has been selling off and will continue to do so steadily but the USD is the mover of our EURUSD pair. Because of the volatile buying and selling of USD we get our correlated pairs showing similar movements. I love watching USDCHF. Here I have put EURUSD and USDCHF (flipped) together to give us a deeper view into the direction.

Last week the USD was sold off and bought back almost 1:1. The sentiment is very bullish for USD so if it stays that way it will pull all of it's pairs with it.

I am going to trade the levels as they come.

I hope my analysis comes as of use to someone.

..
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  • #18,192
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:18pm Jan 7, 2012 1:18pm
yes we can make money by short
but we cant pray euro for collapes...
because its a great pairs for swing and short term trade...


Oh..am drunk ago...just finished several sad songs for audience...
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #18,193
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:27pm Jan 7, 2012 1:27pm
http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/up.../mwo010712.pdf

Read Enjoy And Comment If You Would Like To...

Snippet:

2012 will the year that the consequences of the choices made by nations of the so-called developed world will begin to truly manifest themselves in the economic realm. We are in the closing chapters of the current Debt Supercycle, with different countries strewn out along the path, some at more advanced stages than others but all headed for a destination that will force major decisions if politically painful actions are not taken.

The longer that process takes, the fewer options that are available and the more painful the outcomes. Some countries (think Greece, et al.) have a choice between dire economic circumstances and disastrous. The option for merely difficult choices was passed long ago, and the rules are such that there is no going back to where you started without a different but equally painful outcome.
  • #18,194
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:29pm Jan 7, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting FXMindset
yes we can make money by short
but we cant pray euro for collapes...
because its a great pairs for swing and short term trade...


Oh..am drunk ago...just finished several sad songs for audience...
I understand u Bro ... here is the hope...
Attached Image
  • #18,195
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:32pm Jan 7, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting knoholygrail
I really hope everyone on posts on this thread reads it and those like PipTrapper and others who have the background to understand it comment on it. I see things so clearly now because of this brilliant work that I can now know what to watch for in the future.

All comments and opinions are welcome. It is well worth your 10 minutes or so to read and inform yourself.

A Strong Recommendation To Read It !!!

http://www.gordontlong.com/articles/art-2011-12-cc.pdf
Kno, thanks for posting this. I read it from beginning to end. I must be a bit of a slow reader because it took me 15 minutes as opposed to the 10 minutes you quoted.

Frankly this is nothing new. Many of us (including you) have been harping on about the very same topics for a couple of months now. Nice to see it all brought together in one article though.

The final conclusion here is that the ECB will eventually have no choice but to print more Euros. This means the Euro may even depreciate more than the called for 1.20 against the US Dollar. Think about it, 1.20 is not very far off and not one single Euro has been printed yet. This recent devaluation is only due to capital flight. Once the printing presses start up, there may be a bit of a relief rally in risk assets which may be USD negative and thereby give some support to the E/U pair, but I strongly believe the ultimate target will be parity or less in short order.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #18,196
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:32pm Jan 7, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting rekon67
I understand u Bro ... here is the hope...
starting 15 january would be online around pre NY open only
would be busy with new projects for Philips lighting products

honestly i want to become singer at Taiwan but my ages didnt support at all....maybe next life
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #18,197
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:40pm Jan 7, 2012 1:40pm
Conclusions:

CONCLUSION
It is very hard to conclude anything other than:
1- EURO BELOW 1.20: The Euro currency is exposed against most currencies and likely headed for a currency cross of less than 1.20 against the US dollar. A cross of 1.15 to 1.20 would not be a surprise. We have already seen technical 'death crosses', suggesting this is in the works as the Euro has broken below its 200 DMA in a downward trend channel.


SEE CHART PLEASE...Daily Chart !!!

And Then This...

2- ECB LEVERAGE 471:1: The ECB borders on insolvency. It cannot monetize sovereign debt (print money for sovereign debt) by treaty law and its stake holders have insufficient assets to pledge in which to place the ECB on sound financial footing.
The ECB's balance sheet is now beyond bloated and is realistically insolvent based on the quality of its collateral.

The paid up Capital of the ECB is €5.2B as of January 2011. The Balance sheet currently approximates €2,450B. This is 471:1. Even using the pledged capital of €10.76B expected to be paid in by 2012, it is still 228:1

Considering a significant amount of the debt is of poor quality and worth significantly below its purchased price, the ECB is technically insolvent.
Even if we were to be ridiculously conservative and use €65B of GIIPS bonds bought by the ECB in 2010 and assuming only a 10% devaluation, we have €6.5B, losses which is more than the paid up capital of the ECB. The insolvency is orders of magnitude worse than this, but you get the point. The ECB cannot withstand much further stress before all of this is called into question.

The argument is always that the ECB cannot be insolvent because
it can always print more Euro's. The question I would therefore raise is what is the Euro really worth then?

Whether: YOU BUY ASSETS,
or you: LEND MONEY ON QUESTIONAL COLLATERAL & LEVERAGE,
the ECB'S BALANCE SHEET SHOWS WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON.

SEE BALANCE SHEET !!!

Is the ECB realistically solvent - The 'controlling' German and French owners are incapable of supplying more capital!!!

3- YEN CARRY TRADE - A FORCED UNWIND:
When you appreciate that the YEN Carry trade was a huge financier of the EU and the Euro, you can appreciate why the above problems has resulted in the Euro plummeting against the YEN. This is forcing unwinding of the Carry Trade, as the currency impact losses are too large to be contained without massive adjustments in OTC SWAPS.

SEE EUR/JPY CHART - WEEKLY

FINANCIAL REPRESSION
Let us close by saying that it is critical that you fully appreciate that which would appear as a chaotic situation in Europe is in fact a very well crafted and executed global central bank strategy, using the macro prudential practice of Financial Repression in an attempt to achieve Global Re-Balancing and adjustments in standards of living. I lay all this out in "Thesis 2012: Financial Repression".

SEE CHART - YEN - DOLLAR - WEEKLY

Sign-Up for your FREE copy of "Thesis 2012: Financial Repression" that lays bare how this is being executed and what lies ahead in 2012 and 2013.

I would not ignore this valuable information !!!
  • #18,198
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:43pm Jan 7, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting knoholygrail
Martin Armstrong is more than just cycles.


This week we have Upcoming earnings releases for 4Q, with Alcoa on monday.
Alcoa is the world's leading producer of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina and is active in providing jobs to 59,000 employees across 31 countries.
As such it serves as a early indicator of world economic health and is closely monitored by large funds.

Good results risk on, bad results risk off.
http://www.briefing.com/investor/cal...2012/01/09-13/

Be aware of those teports, because they can also cause graet deal of suden movements before newyork open and after close.
  • #18,199
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:43pm Jan 7, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting FXMindset
starting 15 january would be online around pre NY open only
would be busy with new projects for Philips lighting products

honestly i want to become singer at Taiwan but my ages didnt support at all....maybe next life
okey ... seriously we know each other very little ... it is nice to know you are also a singer, all the best for the new project ... and why not continue singing ...
  • #18,200
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:44pm Jan 7, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting rekon67
okey ... seriously we know each other very little ... it is nice to know you are also a singer, all the best for the new project ... and why not continue singing ...
To old...Maybe next life,hope brahma bless me become a singer after reincarnation
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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