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Trading Made Simple for Day Charts

  • #261
  • Jan 6, 2012 12:13pm Jan 6, 2012 12:13pm
Quoting smatthew
NFP is a huge market mover and taking trades right before would normally be considered suicidal

Thankfully you're in the green on all three trades.
I'd think you could have taken the two bounce trades a candle earlier though.

Stochs: Dropped them a month ago. Same applies to EMA5. Clutters up the charts without having any real effect on the decision making process.
I never took NFP or any news into account when back testing so it seems silly to do it now. News moves the market in the long run so I see that as a positive thing. If I traded 15m time frames it may be a different story but it has never caused me a problem on 4H and daily.

If I had taken the bounce trades a day earlier then CHFJPY TDI would have been flat and EURJPY would have been pointing in the wrong direction. May look different on your brokers platform though. My brokers daily bar closes at 11.00pm GMT.
  • #262
  • Jan 6, 2012 12:24pm Jan 6, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting willf
I never took NFP or any news into account when back testing so it seems silly to do it now. News moves the market in the long run so I see that as a positive thing. If I traded 15m time frames it may be a different story but it has never caused me a problem on 4H and daily.

If I had taken the bounce trades a day earlier then CHFJPY TDI would have been flat and EURJPY would have been pointing in the wrong direction. May look different on your brokers platform though. My brokers daily bar closes at 11.00pm GMT.
Not on the NFP, since I'd personally think twice upon entering a trade with that beast being the next news event on the calendar .
Keeping existing trades open or not is a different story (e.g. my EURSGD short).

You're right about the bounce entries though. The Wednesday candles were flat indeed.
I've misinterpreted my charts. So yours were good entries which I'd probably have taken as well if not for the NFP.
Financial independence is what I live for
  • #263
  • Jan 6, 2012 1:13pm Jan 6, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting willf
Took a few trades last night, first of 2012

CHFJPY 80.94 TP1=80.24
EURJPY 98.63 TP1=97.87
EURUSD 1.2787 TP1=1.2672

Once they reach the first TP I will move them to break even and see how it goes.

CHFJPY & EURJPY were both bounce trades. Stochs never confirmed but the more I look at the stochs the more irrelevant they seem so I may drop them soon.

There were other TDI crosses on CADJPY and USDCHF but the preceding price action was flat so I skipped them.
The stochs doesnt seem to help much i dropped it a while back
  • #264
  • Jan 6, 2012 2:13pm Jan 6, 2012 2:13pm
aud-usd open
usd-cad buy 1.2010
usd-jpy buy 77.288

Any pairs on the radar?
  • #265
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:33pm Jan 6, 2012 4:33pm
Ok so i took two trades yesterday

Eur/Usd +68
Usd/jap -32.5

On the euro trade It looked like a good angle and candle.Also a strong down trend.I was kinda hesitant becasue of it being a below the 50 line cross but the downtrend looks really strong.Like at the very least it has a few more candles.

On the Usd/jap Trade the cross looked to be heading upwards pretty strongly plus it appeared to be getting good support at the 76.588 line.Maybe i was wrong though lol.Im gonna see what happens later.
  • #266
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:24am Jan 7, 2012 12:24am
Quoting willf
Took a few trades last night, first of 2012

CHFJPY 80.94 TP1=80.24
EURJPY 98.63 TP1=97.87
EURUSD 1.2787 TP1=1.2672

Once they reach the first TP I will move them to break even and see how it goes.

CHFJPY & EURJPY were both bounce trades. Stochs never confirmed but the more I look at the stochs the more irrelevant they seem so I may drop them soon.

There were other TDI crosses on CADJPY and USDCHF but the preceding price action was flat so I skipped them.
Wilf
I came to the same conclusion some time ago on stochs
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #267
  • Jan 7, 2012 12:29am Jan 7, 2012 12:29am
Quoting willf
I never took NFP or any news into account when back testing so it seems silly to do it now. News moves the market in the long run so I see that as a positive thing. If I traded 15m time frames it may be a different story but it has never caused me a problem on 4H and daily.

If I had taken the bounce trades a day earlier then CHFJPY TDI would have been flat and EURJPY would have been pointing in the wrong direction. May look different on your brokers platform though. My brokers daily bar closes at 11.00pm GMT.
Great polnt _ neither did I, but I let it influence my thought process. Thanks for the sanity check and clarification.

I love these exchanges with so many learning opportunites
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #268
  • Jan 7, 2012 1:30am Jan 7, 2012 1:30am
been doing a quick bit of back testing on the EU this morning. im confident with the TDI entries, i just find money management my problem from having a profitable trade turn against me (which does happen i know, part of the game), but mainly R:R.

been testing 2xATR(7) for s/l but noticed some times stops would be 400pips+. However, from my back testing, the stops have never been taken out straight away, so what i have been doing is choosing either 2xATR(7) or previous High/low, which ever is smaller, then manually moving my SL to high of previous candle (short) or low of previous candle (long), with my TP1 at 2xATR(7)- i close half, keep rest in with SL @ 'x'+pips.

out of the last 10 trades i have taken on EU from backtesting, i have had a success rate of 70% out of ONLY 10 trades- please dont take this for granted! (was just a quick back test.more testing required) with pips of 1063. i manually closed the trades which went against me from reading TDI and reversal candle strength. i did not enter Bounce trades, as i PERSONALLY, didnt find them worth the risk, when i did, i lost pips.

i would love it if someone with more experience could give me some comments on my MM or share theirs. i have read about people using trailing stops, i will test that out on forward testing(demo).

many thanks

mark
  • #269
  • Jan 7, 2012 2:59am Jan 7, 2012 2:59am
I think Britpip7 is using a combination of many things like SL: 2xATR(7), S/R, manual stop, and TS:100.
  • #270
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:37am Jan 7, 2012 6:37am
Hi smatthew could you let me know where I can download the Polynomial Regression Channel for MT4? I tried finding it on google but nothing looks relaible? Thanks o much
  • #271
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:43am Jan 7, 2012 6:43am
Quoting nemke
Hi smatthew could you let me know where I can download the Polynomial Regression Channel for MT4? I tried finding it on google but nothing looks relaible? Thanks o much
This is for MT4: http://codebase.mql4.com/download/10880
  • #272
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:50am Jan 7, 2012 6:50am
Great thread Brit.

How many different pairs are you trading and MM vise, what is your risk % per trade?

Thanks

PC
Less is more...
  • #273
  • Jan 7, 2012 6:52am Jan 7, 2012 6:52am
kijkij thank!

Is anyone seeing GBPUSD as a sell?

-TDI coss on 2nd candle
- existing downtend, going with the tend

Pls share the set ups you ae seeing fo Monday open?

thanks
  • #274
  • Jan 7, 2012 7:41am Jan 7, 2012 7:41am
How about the strong resistance around 1.542? Since Sep it's bounced back 4 times.

Quoting nemke
kijkij thank!

Is anyone seeing GBPUSD as a sell?

-TDI coss on 2nd candle
- existing downtend, going with the tend

Pls share the set ups you ae seeing fo Monday open?

thanks
  • #275
  • Jan 7, 2012 7:50am Jan 7, 2012 7:50am
Quoting Markrc
been doing a quick bit of back testing on the EU this morning. im confident with the TDI entries, i just find money management my problem from having a profitable trade turn against me (which does happen i know, part of the game), but mainly R:R.

been testing 2xATR(7) for s/l but noticed some times stops would be 400pips+. However, from my back testing, the stops have never been taken out straight away, so what i have been doing is choosing either 2xATR(7) or previous High/low, which ever is smaller, then manually moving my SL to high of previous...
I suggest using the BP "Position Calculator" in the Tools tab. Plug in the SL & Risk % and it will give you the position size. I have it in my Favorites tab but I now know pretty much what the 3 Amigos need for position size so I don't need it for them but I do use it for other possible trades.

Hope I'm not pointing out the obvious that you may be already be familiar with - piprac
  • #276
  • Jan 7, 2012 8:24am Jan 7, 2012 8:24am
Quoting nemke
kijkij thank!

Is anyone seeing GBPUSD as a sell?

-TDI coss on 2nd candle
- existing downtend, going with the tend

Pls share the set ups you ae seeing fo Monday open?

thanks
Hi Nemke,when considering a trade one has got to think about where is the next support /resistance,if you look at your chart (cable) one can see a ton of support around 1.54/53 zone.Hope this helps Tedge
  • #277
  • Jan 7, 2012 11:16am Jan 7, 2012 11:16am
Quoting pipcruiser
Great thread Brit.

How many different pairs are you trading and MM vise, what is your risk % per trade?

Thanks

PC
I am trading 15 pairs as per screenshot on Post #1

For MM typically 5% of reserve and this is sort of based on my trading accuracy and pips win/lose ratios. If I get a loss I instantly reduce my stake on the next trades until the account recovers and then back to 5%.

This will make a difference on your lot sizes when you are trading the higher ATR(7) values such as the eur/ and gbp with nzd for example.

Risk:Reward - per my recent posts and using the TP1 and TP2 approach a minimum of 1:1
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #278
  • Jan 7, 2012 11:22am Jan 7, 2012 11:22am
Quoting gupta_pramod
I think Britpip7 is using a combination of many things like SL: 2xATR(7), S/R, manual stop, and TS:100.
Correct - trading is dynamic and although I would love it if I could place and forget, there is daily trade management / maintenance required per my previous posts - especially on my eur/nzd trade which is still running - now 10 days in and the TP2 trade is currently at +520pips with TP1 closed at +290pips
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #279
  • Jan 7, 2012 11:30am Jan 7, 2012 11:30am
Quoting Markrc
been doing a quick bit of back testing on the EU this morning. im confident with the TDI entries, i just find money management my problem from having a profitable trade turn against me (which does happen i know, part of the game), but mainly R:R.

been testing 2xATR(7) for s/l but noticed some times stops would be 400pips+. However, from my back testing, the stops have never been taken out straight away, so what i have been doing is choosing either 2xATR(7) or previous High/low, which ever is smaller, then manually moving my SL to high of previous...
Mark - great to see you not taking for granted the methods / approaches here. Backtesting is the only way to go and I have spent 100s of hours doing so - in fact I will probably need a new F12 key soon .

With my backtesting, the 2XATR(7) SL was rarely taken out, although when a trade stalls out, this will usually kill off all of your original entry signals/criteria - it is then down to what you see with the candle patterns and current TDI. Don't hold a trade that has stalled out and then be surprised when it moves against you - ask me how I know that!

Perservere with back testing - it is a great teacher if you take ime to study the patterns and what each new candle is telling you. I always swith off the Fractals as they influence your decisions too much with historic charts.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #280
  • Jan 7, 2012 11:53am Jan 7, 2012 11:53am
Quoting Vantage
I have posted this elsewhere but the COT data shows big boys were adding to their shorts so not quite the time yet to buy on D.

Also when there is a turn I'd prefer to see some form of D candle formation such as a dble bottom/higher low.
Here is another link to an article on the euro shorts - fundamentals supporing the charts - will we see an ECB intervention soon?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cot...pisode-history
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
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