Sonic R. System

The other big thing today was Non Farm Payrole (NFP), it's ok to be in short term trades at Frankfurt and London open but better to be out before the NFP at 1.30 GMT. Personally I look after NFP has been released and the market has started to stabalise a bit and then look for trading opportunities.

Hi master Hans,

What made me a little bit surprised is PA according to the Dragon on your pics. I took your EU as an example and posted mine. My Dragon's been crossed by the PA today in the morning while yours not.

I wonder if it's a different settings or brokers?

Hi phi1ipp,

It´s just the settings of the dragon to 89 MA.

If you look at your own chart - you also have it there as the "trendline"

Regards,
H

never follow others take on a trade, after all it your hard earned money that is in risk and you should be the one to defend it....focus on price action along with support an resistance from 1 hour charts....minimize your positions and lot size until you get used to this system and gradually increase it...
trading is a tough task , you have to work smartly to achieve in it...read posts from senior traders here... regards,,,,

thx for your opinion... indeed, i followed other's suggestions... i spent the last days reading and reading this thread, trying to understand what is this all about... and I think I understand what this strategy is, what are the most important signals...
The setups you suggested was ok, at that moment... I did not followed them blindly, there all were ok in my mind too...

I think it is less risky to make trades with the weekly trend... if the weekly trend goes down, don't make longs... I think I will make less mistakes if I respect this... Am I right?

Thx,
secatt

To me the market was bearish. It was dumb of me to think of it going long. That wave that I agreed with TAH it wasn't that powerful in terms of candles. Because the same wave can be drawn on the down. The more I look at it, VSA is playing a role in my judgement of entry and exits.

i just hope by this time we all knew what we are dealing here, an unforgiving market where everybody is equal in sense of speculation. this is a battleground where a newbie or a veteran can get their account kicked or clobbered or worst killed. you are the commander of your troops, if you dont know how to deal with your enemy in the field they will be killed. if so it is better to first fill up the missing gaps between our ears. i hope this links will help:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post5231483

All sonikers, secatt, flamegs, et. al., consider these things. There has been talk recently about other than the classic Sonic R. System trade. Let's review today in light of the classic Sonic R. trade:

1. London session
2. Proper H-L-LH wave
3. EP at least several pips beyond first candle out of Dragon on wave leg3 (which would be around 1.2780, the same as for Hansma's method on M5)
4. SL sensibly placed beyond start of wave leg1 or beyond end of wave leg2
5. TP(s) sensibly selected, and in this case you could have simply gone with the lower half/quarter/whole number levels.

The classic Sonic R. System works. It is just that out of eagerness, looking for a trade that is not there, we sometimes cut corners, lose and lose faith. Then we become confused about how it is supposed to be, questioning the validity of the method. And, in that state of confusion and questioning, we completely miss the next trade!

There are not supposed to be trades all the time! There are enough, however.

Look at the various signals today. Early in the London session the BBs drove the price up, kept it up for two hours while trading continued at high levels. Do you think they drove it up to do all their buying at higher prices? While this was going on, the Dragon was angled up, PA had achieved the upper whole number as new support, and the Trend looked ready to be broken out to the upside. But wait! The trend is down! It could go either way,.....but the trend is down!

Ok, so PA then drops. Hey, sonikers, H-L....., and then PA rises. Hey sonikers, H-L-LH.....! And now, suddenly, the upper whole number and the Trend both look like RESISTANCE! And then price begins the wave leg3 drop. Entry. Dropping. Lower 3/4 number. Lower half number. Lower 1/4 number. Lower whole number, and range low mark! Exit. Nice trade down,....nice classic Sonic R. System short trade.

Did we know in the beginning which direction? No, it looked like it could have gone long. We could even have gone long right at the opening of the London session (Hansma's method showed us that one) but it was a CT (counter trend) trade. Waiting would be nice.

Did we know, once we had a trend following setup, how far it would go? No. But we could see where the range low mark was. And we could see all the trading activity preceding the drop, high trading activity that strangely began after the BBs pumped the price at the LO, and which continued for two hours!

Later, after our entry, we see the US pullback drive up,....high volume on the pullup followed by very high volume on the subsquent drop. This was the "retest" in a Hansma short trade on M5. That M5 Hansma setup suggested the same EP as we were getting for the M15 classic Sonic R.

So, the question remains, how far might it go down? Put yourself in the shoes of the London open BBs and the US open BBs. Would you go to all that effort to pump prices so you enter a short higher than the current price, and not expect to make some decent profits?

So, how far down? KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid!). Look forever back thru PA history and see that moves are typically for 100, 150 and sometimes 200+ pips. From the lows Monday to the highs Tuesday, 150+ pips. Wednesday's short trade, 150+ pips. Thursday's short trade, 150+ pips. Today's short trade, 100+ pips.

So, how far? We did not know. Figure what is reasonable. Count the levels. Bail out when you wish.

I'll tell you something. I added Levels to the SonicR Chart Panel for a reason. In a way, we don't need pivots, or the FR study, or the FE study. We only need to stand back and look at the Big Picture. Wait for a proper setup. And understand the tendency for moves to be between Levels, typically for 100 or more pips. Not always, but typically. So, bail out at which ever next level you feel is adequate for doing so. Some trades may go 25+, or 50+, or 75+ pips (or more). But the Big Picture moves tend to be 100+, 150+ pips. Our classic Sonic R. trade might be just starting the next Big Picture move, or finishing one off.

This is where judgement plays a purposeful role in our trading.

Conclusion? If you've become confused over what to be looking for, and befuddled over seeing no setups, then go back to the basics and patiently stalk the market. While you are doing that, take note of the Big Picture moves. If things have been lean, we are sure to see a move, or moves, come to make up for it.

Have a good weekend, sonikers,
-tah

As Hans stated, he changed the Dragon setting from 34 ema to 89 ema. This puts his Dragon at the Trend line, which is why it looks different than on your chart. Playing with the settings can be interesting, but when we do that we are filling in time, bored, looking for a trade that does not exist, or looking to foretell the future, which we cannot do. We are screwing ourselves looking prematurely for a bias to foretell which way the next move will be. We are screwing ourselves.

I think in the next release there will be no such options for the Dragon-Trend indicator.

The latter. So, I wonder what the "talking heads" will BS about this weekend to set the stage for a run back up? Up or down, I am sure we Sonikers will find trading setups next week.

thank you master....have a good weekend master....

indeed... thx Master... I think we all learn something after friday
I'm waiting for monday, I hope I will be more mindful...

EU:

Stopped out at FE 124% (SL= 1.2948) for a loss of 9 pips EP to SL. This was a crazy M1 trade, and the last of its kind for me!

My Week With the Sonic R. System:

I have two trades that were initiated two weeks ago that are running at considerable loss due to the bear run this week. This week closed three trades running from two weeks ago and one trade running from last week. I opened and closed three new trades.

4 previous open trades now closed for a net gain of 107 pips (no losers).
3 new open/closed trades (one winner, two losers) for a net loss of 33 pips (avg 16.5 per trade)

That is a hit rate of about 71% for a net gain of 74 pips. All trades are posted right here on this thread, most of them posted live/real time.

As with last week, this week brought extreme drives in the wrong direction for my two open trades from two weeks ago. Though they are down considerably, I still believe those trades are in the correct direction and will be profitable. These are my only open trades. As it is, I could have closed them near the end of Friday and the tally for last week and this week would be a net loss of 167 pips. I have decided to carry them another week, and see if we get a reversal of the bear run, which would benefit them.

hi

Sonic, this is in reference to an old post you made. I tried to study the chart the comment was in reference to, in an effort to understand what you meant.

Could you explain what you mean by "2 Longs approaching 800 pips? Does that mean you had two trades running with 400 pips each, and if so, how?

Your chart is attached.

Thanks!

Sonicdeejay is on vacation. I can answer. Yes, he had two trades running. I cannot say if both were equal, or if the two together totalled the referenced 800 pips. You could check backwards from his post to try and determine if he made two trades at different times, or whatever. In this case, the chart is incidental. It shows the price jumped, but has no references on it for EPs, TPs, etc. Sonic is a busy fulltime engineer. He wants to see a pic. with each post. So apparently he posted that one without having time to add any trade specific notations. We are blessed to have him.

-tah

Tah,

Is it better to enter 1 position and when 20 pips is reached move to break even+5 SL and let ride for TP or
Enter 2 positions and exit one when 20 pips is reached and move 2nd position SL to break even+5 SL and let ride for TP?

What do u prefer and why?

JD, I don't see that it makes any difference, not so far as exits and SL changes are concerned.

With 2 positions, you close one and revise the SL on the open one. And with one position, you close half (or whatever portion) and revise the SL on the open portion, all according to the same rules governing such changes.

The only difference I can see is the ease of manually entering just one trade vs two, especially if price is moving rapidly at the time. If entry is a preset order, then there is no difference here either.

thanks