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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #18,081
  • Jan 6, 2012 8:56am Jan 6, 2012 8:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
if the 1.2720 area gives way, I see 1.2680 as the next support which is the longer term falling channel LTL

Attachment

Ahhhh..crap...my mobile battery exhausted ... so this is the end of my friday

I did 15 sales on E/U pair pocketed 160 pips today ...one more sale is running hope she will ending below 1.26...

btw... Raff shows more down next channel support we have @ 1.263x area ...after that ... 1.25 would be the historical support ....
  • #18,082
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:06am Jan 6, 2012 9:06am
Quoting rekon67
Ahhhh..crap...my mobile battery exhausted ... so this is the end of my friday

I did 15 sales on E/U pair pocketed 160 pips today ...one more sale is running hope she will ending below 1.26...

btw... Raff shows more down next channel support we have @ 1.263x area ...after that ... 1.25 would be the historical support ....
Good job!!!
  • #18,083
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:06am Jan 6, 2012 9:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
Happy New Year Tom. Good to see you posting again. Cheers
Happy New Year man. No worries, I will not stop posting. My MM is set so tight i will be actually bugging you for two years even if I enter only loosing trades .

Quoting bumapatria
hey man how are you? nice i also went on kitchin earlier and will research the retest

take care in this year wish u all the beset
Take care too friend. I am fine, thx for asking. I finally got sober from last weekend. I hope you are fine as well. And profitable.

Regarding those cycles. There is a guy, Tony Plummer, who wrote a book "Forecasting financial markets". Parts of this book are on google, but it is not complete as charts (which are the most important) are missing. Nevertheless, he summarized all cycle theories in this book. Very interesting reading. Elliot, Kondratieff, Kitchin, Berry, Juglar, all included. I think you could find this book very interesting.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #18,084
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:27am Jan 6, 2012 9:27am
Quoting FXMindset
So my ambitious target will reach again ? Thanks God

ola Fx ... show me your lines ....
  • #18,085
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:35am Jan 6, 2012 9:35am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Happy New Year man. No worries, I will not stop posting. My MM is set so tight i will be actually bugging you for two years even if I enter only loosing trades .



Take care too friend. I am fine, thx for asking. I finally got sober from last weekend. I hope you are fine as well. And profitable.

Regarding those cycles. There is a guy, Tony Plummer, who wrote a book "Forecasting financial markets". Parts of this book are on google, but it is not complete as charts (which are the most important) are missing. Nevertheless, he summarized...
That's a good book, I must dig out my copy - Tony Plummer was a director of Hambros and highly regarded...the book also talked about crowd behaviour

PS - beer money long off the 2700 level - it might pull back as Europe closes....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,086
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:44am Jan 6, 2012 9:44am
Quoting rekon67
Ahhhh..crap...my mobile battery exhausted ... so this is the end of my friday

I did 15 sales on E/U pair pocketed 160 pips today ...one more sale is running hope she will ending below 1.26...

btw... Raff shows more down next channel support we have @ 1.263x area ...after that ... 1.25 would be the historical support ....
Good job on the pips.

As far as 1.2500 being "historical" support, I have to disagree as I'm not seeing any actual support there. However, it will be a major psychological level once price gets there.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #18,087
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:54am Jan 6, 2012 9:54am
I for one am eyeing up a reversal after the London close something along the lines of yesterday.. I can't seem to figure out a reason for the risk off sentiment today and yesterday even after the market was fed good news.. However I always remember about 2 months we got excellent news from nfp similar to today's and come Monday we saw a rally and for most of that week.. With that in mind and if I am clear in profit I will have full confidence in leaving it open for the weekend and ride out the possible correction..
Have a good weekend all!
  • #18,088
  • Jan 6, 2012 9:56am Jan 6, 2012 9:56am
Just a historical chart with weekly S/R levels/areas.

IMHO there really is no strong floor for this until 1.2150 area after 1.2650 area breached.

EDIT: Oops, forgot 1.2460 area
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-6-12.png Size: 64 KB
  • #18,089
  • Jan 6, 2012 10:04am Jan 6, 2012 10:04am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Just a historical chart with weekly S/R levels/areas.

IMHO there really is no strong floor for this until 1.2150 area after 1.2650 area breached.
I agree. Once this current area breaks down I'm showing around 1.2200 or there abouts. Then after that will be the 1.1875 low established June 2010.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #18,090
  • Jan 6, 2012 10:15am Jan 6, 2012 10:15am
Quoting spzd
Good job on the pips.

As far as 1.2500 being "historical" support, I have to disagree as I'm not seeing any actual support there. However, it will be a major psychological level once price gets there.

1.25 means not 1.2500 but 1.25xx ... and obviously we can not pick a point and say this is the support ... but the lower bottom of the historical support resides there ... hope I'm clear now (actually i was excited enough in my previous post )
  • #18,091
  • Jan 6, 2012 10:19am Jan 6, 2012 10:19am
Quoting rekon67
1.25 means not 1.2500 but 1.25xx ... and obviously we can not pick a point and say this is the support ... but the lower bottom of the historical support resides there ... hope I'm clear now (actually i was excited enough in my previous post )
I understand. These areas are zones, not a specific number. So the numbers I state are also just basically an area.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #18,092
  • Jan 6, 2012 10:23am Jan 6, 2012 10:23am
Isn't it time to change te poll
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #18,093
  • Jan 6, 2012 10:26am Jan 6, 2012 10:26am
Quoting spzd
I understand. These areas are zones, not a specific number. So the numbers I state are also just basically an area.

As long as we are not predicting that we've reached the lower bottom but our technical s started telling that yes it is .... and based on that we're taking our trading decision ... it is fine
  • #18,094
  • Jan 6, 2012 10:31am Jan 6, 2012 10:31am
New poll:

Date at which Drachma returns:
A) within 3 months
B) within 6 months
C) never
D) Before Lire, Franc, and Deutschmark



  • #18,095
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:13am Jan 6, 2012 11:13am
Quoting rekon67
As long as we are not predicting that we've reached the lower bottom but our technical s started telling that yes it is .... and based on that we're taking our trading decision ... it is fine

to put this fall into perspective.........

PS Beer money pips banked .......and a good weekend to all

PS Standard fibonacci expansions off the first leg down are at 2600 & 2100....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 6 daily 2008 falls.gif Size: 22 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,096
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:14am Jan 6, 2012 11:14am
Quoting Thijs
Isn't it time to change te poll
I cannot. When I created it, I didn't realize it was permanent.
I will send a message to FF to see if I can change it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #18,097
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:21am Jan 6, 2012 11:21am
Quoting rekon67
ola Fx ... show me your lines ....
Which one do you like
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/images/...exagon_650.gif
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #18,098
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:31am Jan 6, 2012 11:31am
I'm no where near an expert with this supply/demand stuff and I am learning as I go, but it fits in so well with the system I use I've become kind of hooked on it. (Ahh, give me my S/D fix. )

Here are a couple charts of S/D.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-01-06_121751.jpg Size: 121 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-01-06_120714.jpg Size: 112 KB
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #18,099
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:33am Jan 6, 2012 11:33am
Quoting FXMindset
Which one do you like
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/images/...exagon_650.gif
and this
Personaly am prefer the lines above one,more cool more beautiful
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU5.png Size: 28 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #18,100
  • Jan 6, 2012 11:37am Jan 6, 2012 11:37am
i welcome peer review on my money management strategy, please rip it apart.

1.86% of account risk per trade due to 35% loss ratio= streak of 35/100 trade losses total account depletion would be 65.10% with fixed out of original balance (in other words 1.86% is constant of original balance, not adjusting to new account balance) it is a little aggressive but more defensive than this would be very at least in my view very slow growth.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: money management plan.jpg Size: 37 KB


let me explain what you are looking at. historical average range of euro is 121 pips per day, historical average low 61 and average high 61 respectively from open. statistically when price falls > 61 from open only 16% since inception has closed above open. approx same reverse ratio as far as average high.

99.33% of the time price closes above or below open. so my whole trading and money management strategy is centered around determining the most likely scenario for today. now......... the open is my reference point (the blue line)

my fixed stop would be 62 pips from open due to statistical reasons (bullish stop is golden, bearish stop is red)

when price is trading below open with bullish stop, total risk is capped at 1.86%, depending on how close to the stop area is < % risk.

if entering long above open you see the numbers in green determining my leverage to use less than 31pips above open with same fixed stop leverage must be 1:2 to keep risk capped at 1.86%, above 31 pips from open 1:1 to capp risk at 1.86%, same principle when shorting except the leverage is written in Red numbers.

i came up with this as an answer to the stop outs due to normal volatility and the stop hits when attempting to ride a wave due to normal volatility.
this ensures that my risk never exceeds 1.86%, and if pyramiding things get easier as i use gains on position as buffer rendering risk to 0%, but that is another topic. this is for initial position or day trading
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
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