EurAnalysis | Page 900 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #17,981
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:12am Jan 6, 2012 6:12am
Quoting bumapatria
usdx expected to faohhlll down to about 80 as per my forecast. if it even makes 5 ticks south from now that confirms my signal ( i think)


here it is with some fib bar coutns and end of square setup where price rises into it expected to fall (thats cycle tradign for ya, lol , price rise to timeline, go short, price fall to timeline, go long ahhaha)

and the square of nine for anyone who can interpret it.
Buma

Looking at this chart I can say that Leonardo Da Vinci compared to you was just a little guy. (but remember he was payed not well but enough for his art)
Beauty awakens the soul to act. Dante Alighieri
  • #17,982
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:13am Jan 6, 2012 6:13am
Quoting rekon67
Show me the fresh lines for E/U...
http://www.markify.com/images/ctm/or.../003011756.JPG
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #17,983
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:15am Jan 6, 2012 6:15am
Quoting knoholygrail
The chart will have to be changed at 8:30 AM EST to continue to be accurate. My sign is Capricorn. I am supposed to make money today.

And so it goes...

The US Bond Yields are now .26% and 2.01 % so the spread has gone up to 175 basis points as the 10 Year US Bonds moved to 2.01% from 2.00% which means they sold off and the money went elsewhere as the Yield rose.

Dow Futures are up 24 now. The USD/CAD is now weaker at 1.0201.

The main item in the Canadian numbers was Part Time Jobs compared to Full Time Jobs.

There was extra hiring for...
Friday, Jan 6th, 2012 -- You have lots of thoughts running through your head today, but it's challenging to put them into words because they are moving so quickly. It's difficult to gauge the impact of your presentation because one minute it seems as if everyone's agreeing with you, and then the next minute someone's belittling your perspective. Paradoxically, you'll be more successful if you don't try so hard. Be patient and save your most convincing arguments until tomorrow when the planets are on your side.

Buy Euro ? Sell Euro ? What Do I Do Buma ?
  • #17,984
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:15am Jan 6, 2012 6:15am
sold e/c @ 3064
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #17,985
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:17am Jan 6, 2012 6:17am
Quoting FXMindset
http://www.markify.com/images/ctm/or.../003011756.JPG

Nice Picture Also. Take Care Of Yourself. You are a Treasure and never forget it Friend.
  • #17,986
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:18am Jan 6, 2012 6:18am
Quoting knoholygrail

Do you follow this Buma ?

I Love You !!!


http://www.reinodosgifs.net/love2/01.gif
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #17,987
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:19am Jan 6, 2012 6:19am
Quoting FXMindset
..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: option.gif Size: 46 KB
  • #17,988
  • Edited 6:21am Jan 6, 2012 6:20am | Edited 6:21am
Quoting rekon67
Loonie Falls Following Canada's Jobs Data
01/06/2012 - 07:02:00 (RTTNews)

(RTTNews) - Following the release of Canada's jobs data for December at 7:00 am ET Friday, the loonie declined against other major counterparts.

The loonie is now trading 1.0202 against the greenback, 75.67 against the yen, 1.3052 against the euro and 1.0459 against the aussie.

Friday, January 06, 2012 7:00:04 AM
*(CA) CANADA DEC NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +17.5K V +20.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.5% V 7.4%E
- No revisions


Breakdown of Jobs report:
- Full-time jobs: -25.5K v +34.6K prior
- Part-time jobs: 43.1K v -53.3K prior
- Participation rate: 66.6% v 66.6% prior




  • #17,989
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:22am Jan 6, 2012 6:22am
Quoting Thijs
I don't get the Swap-line deal. There is a shortage of Euro's and the Fed says "come on guys come and park those euro's with us" creating an even larger shortage ?

Those Euros parked inside the Federal Reserve's would become worthless, if the Euro disappears.

Is there anyone who can explain this from a ECB point of view
There are no Euros parked at the Fed. Only Dollars are parked there.
The ECB borrows USD from the Fed to provide USD financing to the Euro area banks. However, the USDs that are borrowed do not sit on deposit at the ECB. They remain at the Fed and when a Euro area bank borrows USDs from the ECB, the ECB send instructions to the Fed to transfer the appropriate amount of USDs from the ECBs account to the borrowing bank's account... all the while remaining parked at the Fed.

In return, the ECB guarantees those USD loans with Euros that are parked at the ECB in the Fed's account but they never go anywhere.

Also, the dollars and euros that are used for the loans and guarantees were not removed from the current money supply. They were simply created out of thin air through a few clicks of a mouse and a few keys on a keyboard.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #17,990
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:23am Jan 6, 2012 6:23am
Quoting Tyoon
I have been looking on other websites other than INO.

Do you watch CBOE's bond futures? That's all I can find. I can't find any service that charts prices by the minute or hour.
I follow the US Bond Yield Live on CNBC and you can always use the Commodity charts. Live is most important and charts come second. I hope this helps. Thanks for your excellent work.
  • #17,991
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:23am Jan 6, 2012 6:23am
Quoting knoholygrail

Friday, January 06, 2012 7:00:04 AM
*(CA) CANADA DEC NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +17.5K V +20.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 7.5% V 7.4%E
- No revisions


Breakdown of Jobs report:
- Full-time jobs: -25.5K v +34.6K prior
- Part-time jobs: 43.1K v -53.3K prior
- Participation rate: 66.6% v 66.6% prior



Excellent Kno ... now going for a break .. feeling hungry for some food .. join you later ...
  • #17,992
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:28am Jan 6, 2012 6:28am
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...euro-has-begun

Snippet:

The euro is a dying currency. On Thursday, the EUR/USD fell below 1.28 for the first time since September 2010. In fact, as I write this the EUR/USD is sitting at 1.2791. Back in July, the EUR/USD was over 1.45. But this is just the beginning. The euro is going to go a lot lower. At this point, there are several major European nations that are on the verge of default, the European financial system is overflowing with debt and toxic assets, and most major European banks are leveraged about as badly as Lehman Brothers was when it collapsed. Most Americans simply do not grasp the gravity of what is happening. Just because the Dow is sitting above 12000 and a few U.S. economic numbers have improved slightly does not mean that everything is going to be okay. As I wrote about recently, the EU has a bigger economy than we do and they have a bigger banking system than we do. U.S. banks are massively exposed to European sovereign debt and European banking debt. When the financial system of Europe collapses and the euro falls apart it is going to rock the entire planet. So you better look out below - the euro is coming down and it is coming down hard. After the euro implodes, nothing is every going to be the same again.
So how far are we going to see the euro decline?
Julian Jessop of Capital Economics expects the euro to fall much further....

The relative strength of the recent economic data from the US is supporting the dollar more generally, and we expect this divergence to persist as the euro-zone slides into a deep and prolonged recession. Above all, doubts about the very survival of the euro itself are likely to remain a drag on the currency. We therefore continue to expect the euro to fall to around $1.10 by the end of the year.

  • #17,993
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:28am Jan 6, 2012 6:28am
Quoting rekon67
Ask Uncle Ben
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a...3e10970b-800wi
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #17,994
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:28am Jan 6, 2012 6:28am
Quoting knoholygrail
I follow the US Bond Yield Live on CNBC and you can always use the Commodity charts. Live is most important and charts come second. I hope this helps. Thanks for your excellent work.
Sweet, got it. You know me, I'm a chart addict. Ain't no chart but the info is there. I'll keep this page open and watch the yields.

Cheers Knoseph.
  • #17,995
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:29am Jan 6, 2012 6:29am
Quoting LaMaschera
Buma

Looking at this chart I can say that Leonardo Da Vinci compared to you was just a little guy. (but remember he was payed not well but enough for his art)
maschera.. lol i got u ... i got u
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #17,996
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:31am Jan 6, 2012 6:31am
Quoting knoholygrail
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...euro-has-begun

Snippet:

The euro is a dying currency. On Thursday, the EUR/USD fell below 1.28 for the first time since September 2010. In fact, as I write this the EUR/USD is sitting at 1.2791. Back in July, the EUR/USD was over 1.45. But this is just the beginning. The euro is going to go a lot lower. At this point, there are several major European nations that...

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012...begun-to-fall/

Snippet:

By Mark Gongloff

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/im...0105111509.jpgFactSetTwo-year chart of the euro vs. the US dollar. Click for big image.

The euro is taking a serious beating today, falling more than 1% to $1.2791, its lowest level in 15 months.
But it’s still too expensive.
Remember, back in the Spring of 2010, when euro-zone fears first really gripped the market’s imagination in a let’s-all-panic sort of way, the euro dipped below $1.20 against the US dollar.
There’s no good argument for why it should be more valuable than that today, particularly with the euro-zone sinking into recession as we speak, while US economic data keep surprising to the upside.
Julian Jessop at Capital Economics sees the euro hitting $1.10 before long:

The relative strength of the recent economic data from the US is supporting the dollar more generally, and we expect this divergence to persist as the euro-zone slides into a deep and prolonged recession. Above all, doubts about the very survival of the euro itself are likely to remain a drag on the currency. We therefore continue to expect the euro to fall to around $1.10 by the end of the year.

For perspective, the euro hasn’t been at $1.10 since September 2003.
One key question about this scenario, from a US perspective, is how long US stocks, and the US economy, would be able to stay detached from a tumbling euro. They’ve been a little less correlated in recent weeks, but that’s been an exception to the rule of the past several months.
  • #17,997
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:31am Jan 6, 2012 6:31am
Quoting knoholygrail
Friday, Jan 6th, 2012 -- You have lots of thoughts running through your head today, but it's challenging to put them into words because they are moving so quickly. It's difficult to gauge the impact of your presentation because one minute it seems as if everyone's agreeing with you, and then the next minute someone's belittling your perspective. Paradoxically, you'll be more successful if you don't try so hard. Be patient and save your most convincing arguments until tomorrow when the planets are on your side.

Buy Euro ? Sell Euro ? What...
i dont really forecast to buy or sell, i forecast what on earth to do when prices and time are sort of at a spot of interest... like usdx.

i honestly cant get myself a PURE LONG or a PURE SHORT of USD.
either way expect big moves (NFP driven fundamentally speaking)


im just thinking risk and i think its safer to go short usdchf at supply/resistance level, rather than go long. but then again countertrending is an art that requires... perfect price and the timing of ur entry needs to be impeccable .
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #17,998
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:31am Jan 6, 2012 6:31am
Quoting rekon67
if the NFP is higher than expected and last month's unemployment rate is not revised upwards significantly, then that would be supportive of risk appetite. Logically it would be dollar positive, but it may be dollar negative due to safe haven capital flows out of the US looking for higher yields in emerging economies.

As for the Euro, anything short of a solution to the debt crisis is euro negative but if the dollar drops, the euro will rise slightly... enough to call it a correction and trigger waiting sell limit orders to make another move down.

My prediction:
1. NFP comes out as high or higher than expected.
2. US unemployment is only revised upwards slightly to 8.7% or 8.8%
3. Market takes this as risk positive and equity markets rally
4. USD index drops which slightly drives up the Euro (maybe to 1.29)
5. Euro sell limit orders are triggered around 1.2880/1.2900 and we see 1.26 area.

Disclaimer: This is only an opinion based on what I believe may happen. Nobody really knows. I just feel it is a likely scenario.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #17,999
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:35am Jan 6, 2012 6:35am
as for those interested in fundamentals, and cycles, here is the kondratieff cycle



http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_jV0R85IB4w...s320/kondr.png

either the low is not made yet or we are already in economic recovery
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #18,000
  • Jan 6, 2012 6:36am Jan 6, 2012 6:36am
So basically it comes down to heroin loans. One, or more CB increasses money supply, and swaps with another central bank, to prop up banking.




Quoting PipTrapper
There are no Euros parked at the Fed. Only Dollars are parked there.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
97 traders viewing now