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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #17,941
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:41am Jan 6, 2012 4:41am
hi bud hope your ok. i'll be off for a few days as i will be in london refurbing a house and i might name it FOREX lol and no i wont take laptop with me. i have had a very good week trading the a/u and i am currently developing another system
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #17,942
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:43am Jan 6, 2012 4:43am
Here guys...arranged some exercise for you before NFP release...practice for next two hrs....
Attached Image
  • #17,943
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:43am Jan 6, 2012 4:43am
Quoting Tyoon
Basket?
because this is no jpy thread i only wanted to give an example of long term trend that is in place from 1975

The chart i posted goes back to 1975 when the Euro was not born yet, but it was the EUA was a basket of European currencies, originally designed to have the same value in mid-1974 as the IMF Special Drawing Rights basket, both worth US$1.20635; they immediately moved apart in value.

Later it was European Currency Unit...

That is whay we here 1.2 is a posible target from a history fun damental background.

Yearly chart would be great thing to have, because we cant allow ourselfs to be limited in time perspective by only 3 or five years, or even just one year as it was the case when i started to trade.
  • #17,944
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:46am Jan 6, 2012 4:46am
NFP.....Since trhe EURO has been on a slide for the last few days the US seems to have gained some track and sentiment might of changed....I might be biased because I live in the States but with the way msnbc is talking I'm long term bullish on the US economy...decent numbers last few days for dollar y would that change now?
  • #17,945
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:47am Jan 6, 2012 4:47am
Hello everybody
for long term charts check this http://www.adv-charttechnik.de/lchartsE.html
may be helpful
  • #17,946
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:50am Jan 6, 2012 4:50am
Ok game time now....first artificial sign of a low has appeared so I will wait for the bears to take a piss break and sneak in for +5 long
  • #17,947
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:52am Jan 6, 2012 4:52am
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The NFP data for December, due out this Friday at 13:30 GMT, is expected to show similar improvement as the previous month. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst with FXstreet.com, indicates a range of 100.000-150.000 jobs added.

She also believes that the unemployment rate will be closely observed as last month “we saw a strong decline to 8.6%” and “a return to levels above 8.8% will be discouraging.” She does not consider it overly damaging for the USD though, while “a reading of 8.6% or below, will exacerbate masses, giving further support to dollar."
  • #17,948
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:53am Jan 6, 2012 4:53am
Hi bud, if you know the bears are going to run why dont you trade it then get the 5 long. Just asking
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #17,949
  • Jan 6, 2012 4:55am Jan 6, 2012 4:55am
Quoting billytt
hi bud hope your ok. i'll be off for a few days as i will be in london refurbing a house and i might name it FOREX lol and no i wont take laptop with me. i have had a very good week trading the a/u and i am currently developing another system
Hi Billyt,

I'm fine and hope you are doing fine also
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #17,950
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:01am Jan 6, 2012 5:01am
Quoting rekon67
? ... scalping before NFP ?!
Oh crap....... It's friday already...Where the hell did this week go so fast I was thinking today was thursday

I actually had to check because I forgot what day it was.... That's the problem with being retired, I'm too busy to have a job.



I updated my weekly chart a bit. Supply and demand zones highlighted for your viewing pleasure.

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I don't care which way the market is going as long as it's going my way
  • #17,951
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:02am Jan 6, 2012 5:02am
Attached Image
  • #17,952
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:03am Jan 6, 2012 5:03am
Quoting billytt
Hi bud, if you know the bears are going to run why dont you trade it then get the 5 long. Just asking
Because I consider that to be over-trading...I like to let past history play its part in current and future plays
  • #17,953
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:05am Jan 6, 2012 5:05am
Quoting theIEguy9_09
Because I consider that to be over-trading...I like to let past history play its part in current and future plays
... and that earns you a voucher.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #17,954
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:07am Jan 6, 2012 5:07am
Quoting PipKiller
Oh crap....... It's friday already...Where the hell did this week go so fast I was thinking today was thursday

I actually had to check because I forgot what day it was.... That's the problem with being retired, I'm too busy to have a job.



I updated my weekly chart a bit. Supply and demand zones highlighted for your viewing pleasure.

Attachment
Ok .. seems it has two times hit that support ...just one more with high volume can break it ..nd we are off to go for 1.26 ?
  • #17,955
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:07am Jan 6, 2012 5:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
... and that earns you a voucher.
Lol not so fast....I was unable to enter long due to the lack of momentum and also due to the 1hr candle closing...I need to pay more attention next time I post...thanks though
  • #17,956
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:13am Jan 6, 2012 5:13am
Quoting theIEguy9_09
Lol not so fast....I was unable to enter long due to the lack of momentum and also due to the 1hr candle closing...I need to pay more attention next time I post...thanks though
Whatever..you do you can not change this by yourself ..congrats mate
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  • #17,957
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:13am Jan 6, 2012 5:13am
That was the headline on CNBC Squakbox just now. To translate it means the banks are holding onto the cash and just letting it sit with ECB. WE have the same issue with US banks.

There are reasons for this. Bottom line there is liquidity yet the cash is not being used and does not help the issues out there for business.

There is another summit of sorts on January 9, 2012. They might come up with some new ideas since they cannot afford to come up with the same old same old or EUR/USD will continue the WALK as PipTrapper pointed out in a recent post.
  • #17,958
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:14am Jan 6, 2012 5:14am
good explaination but my point is you knew e/u was going to drop just like i did. I didnt trade it as it isnt my way but i guess your scalping if your waiting for it to move up. The point is you knew what was going to happen, that is trading. take care
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #17,959
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:15am Jan 6, 2012 5:15am
Quoting theIEguy9_09
Lol not so fast....I was unable to enter long due to the lack of momentum and also due to the 1hr candle closing...I need to pay more attention next time I post...thanks though
I decided to enter long 5mins after the low was hit....1hr new bar opened and hit a low...I played the bounce @6:07est exit@6:14est for +5...one more trade and 4.5% target reached
  • #17,960
  • Jan 6, 2012 5:25am Jan 6, 2012 5:25am
Quoting knoholygrail
That was the headline on CNBC Squakbox just now. To translate it means the banks are holding onto the cash and just letting it sit with ECB. WE have the same issue with US banks.

There are reasons for this. Bottom line there is liquidity yet the cash is not being used and does not help the issues out there for business.

There is another summit of sorts on January 9, 2012. They might come up with some new ideas since they cannot afford to come up with the same old same old or EUR/USD will continue the WALK as PipTrapper pointed out in a recent...
What Will 2012 Bring?

Looking at the year ahead, our research team has analyzed global developments and plumbed a variety of key markets. You'll find a broad selection of our conclusions later in this newsletter issue and hope they will be useful in guiding your investment strategies. We will be following up in coming weeks with more details about specific recommendations.

In 2011, financial news was dominated by the festering turmoil in Europe. Looking ahead, we believe the ongoing crisis will be addressed by a global money printing "jamboree" and coordinated funding from central banks in the developed world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve. When the money starts rolling off the presses, the liquidity infusion will create some genuine buying opportunities for American, European, and Asian stocks, as well as selected commodities. Why, because liquidity infusions are like a rising tide of money available to buy assets. Wise investors seeing the rising tide, buy stocks, commodities, and primarily gold to protect the buying power of their assets.

The Swap Line/Life Line:
The Fed Gives and Europe Takes...but Quietly

We have mentioned many times that the U.S. Federal Reserve will help bail out Europe. The rescue operation is underway...but oh so quietly. The talking heads on television, perhaps mostly on holiday hibernation, have missed the development thus far, and you may have as well unless you read a December 28 editorial in the Wall Street Journal. It was written by Gerald P. O'Driscoll, Jr., a former senior economist and vice-president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who is eminently equipped by education, experience, and connections to know the mechanics of the Fed.

The Fed action is surreptitious. That's because the European Central Bank (ECB) wants to provide needed liquidity to Europe's anemic banks without printing a lot of Euros. If the ECB blatantly cranks out Euros it would undermine its status as an inflation-fighting stalwart and incur the wrath of Germany. At the same time, many European heads of state want the ECB to purchase more sovereign debt, so what you have is an obvious conflict.

The U.S. Fed to the rescue. But shhhhhhh....

Here's what's going on. The Fed is engaging in a temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangement with the ECB. In common English, that means the Fed swaps dollars with the ECB for Euros. The ECB pays a small interest rate and guarantees to return a fixed number of dollars at a future date at a fixed exchange rate. Then, the ECB lends the money to the European banks that need it most. In 2008, the Fed caught flak for loaning money to U.S. branches of the foreign banks, so this time they are attempting to maneuver by tip-toeing around the eggshells.

The artful maneuvering provides cover for both the Fed and the ECB because it allows for helping European banks without printing a lot of Euros or dollars in an obvious manner.

A most important part of the story now follows: In late 2008, the Fed had $600 billion of swaps on its balance sheet. By early 2010 they were mostly paid down as the panic of 2008 subsided and banks were able to raise capital from traditional sources, primarily by selling stock. By the end of last summer, the Fed's swap renewal agreement had a balance of only $2.4 billion. In recent weeks, the balance has grown to $64 billion. We fully expect to see much higher numbers in the coming weeks as more dollars are channeled to Europe.

What's happening is an obscure form of quantitative easing, aka money printing; but it is a type of money printing nonetheless. Central bank balance sheets...and future generations' debt burdens continue to grow.

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