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TASAYC System

  • #1,081
  • Edited 8:25pm Jan 4, 2012 5:59pm | Edited 8:25pm
At all irreverent nonreaders!
You have to read this thread at first, before barrage superfluous questions!
Focus page 1, #1 the common theme!
If not, ...feel not sad if you don't get an answer!
FXcube
  • #1,082
  • Edited 8:53pm Jan 4, 2012 7:45pm | Edited 8:53pm
Trade Example
Scalping
EURUSD,M1, 2012 January 05
2:25 - 2:30 CET
Profit: +30'550.-$
(+6.1%)

Asian Session could give you some excellent market settings where you could make a profit.
You have to learn to read the London-, the New York- and the Asian Session in his own rhythm.
I wait arrival of a higher probability market case (higher probability of expected return) and so it's my first task to lie on lookout in accordance with my trade.

In this market situation the market price has fallen under the Pivotal "mS1" 1.2916 and M15, M5 (see #1087) and M1 has formed a CCI-Bottom (with a H1 longer candle within the daily range within the last 5 bars).

See also EURUSD,M5, 2012 January 05, #1087

This trade has a total duration of only 5 minutes but for all that maybe you sit on watch for several hours or sitting in front of a clock that strikes the quarters. Maybe I have just turn on the computer and could have make this trade immediately,...the Flower of My Secret!

Kindest regards
FXcube
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, M1, 2012 January 05.jpg Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Scalping Trade, EURUSD, M1, 2012 January 05, 2h25-2h30CET, Profit 30K.jpg Size: 334 KB
  • #1,083
  • Jan 4, 2012 7:48pm Jan 4, 2012 7:48pm
hallo infinitus,

thanks for this very good explanation.

i got the point.

versuche das ganze nun nach deiner beschriebenen methode umzusetzen.

regards, schoene gruesse

  • #1,084
  • Edited 9:00pm Jan 4, 2012 7:58pm | Edited 9:00pm
EURUSD, M5, 2012 January 05
See also #1085, please.

Probability of acceptance?

Asian Session
Point "A": If I would only trade here and there for several pips and with low risk I could trade the Point "A" (M5) with regard at M1.
Point "B": If I wait for an excellent entry probability I wouldn't trade Point "A" due to the fact that here aren't any Pivotals. I would wait a little bit longer for Point "B" with the stronger argument (CCI-Bottom & Pivotal) for a Market Entry with just as higher risk.

London Session
I would trade analogical market settings during the London Session twice: Point "A" (with some lots) and Point "B" (with more lots).

Be aware:
Point "A" seems a risky trade.
FXcube
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, M5, 2012 January 05.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #1,085
  • Jan 5, 2012 3:35am Jan 5, 2012 3:35am
EUUD,,1 hr.. diversion on EUUD 1 hr chart seeing corresponding diversion on 1 hr DXY.. also this chart at week S1.. watching 5 min chart for possible long trade..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,086
  • Jan 5, 2012 3:41am Jan 5, 2012 3:41am
EUUD 5 min .. note shape of 10.. 50.. and 14 CCI..Have taken long position at 2873
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #1,087
  • Jan 5, 2012 4:02am Jan 5, 2012 4:02am
Closed for 12 point loss..reason dont like what i see on UDIndex..will watch for possible short trade..
  • #1,088
  • Jan 5, 2012 6:42am Jan 5, 2012 6:42am
EUUD 1 hr.. 4 hr looks like it may be diverging now to..
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  • #1,089
  • Jan 5, 2012 7:48am Jan 5, 2012 7:48am
Quoting danc
EUUD 1 hr.. 4 hr looks like it may be diverging now to..


See #1300
  • #1,090
  • Jan 5, 2012 8:27am Jan 5, 2012 8:27am
Scalping Example
EURUSD, M1, 2012 January 05

Profit: +29'700.-$
(+5.94%)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Scalping Example, M1, 2012 January 05.jpg Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Scalping Example, EURUSD, M1, 2012 January 05, 14h35-15h14 CET.jpg Size: 271 KB
  • #1,091
  • Jan 5, 2012 9:01am Jan 5, 2012 9:01am
Quoting crodzilla
Here is a real-time example of what I would consider a high probability short. I would now go to the 5-min and/or 1-min an only place short orders.

CCI is divergent. USD is weakening, and CHF is strengthening.

All you have to do is scan the grid and see the 3 bears. (that's catchy).
The weekly chart is also seeing "the 3 bears" plus a CCI extreme bearish hook.
About as sweet as it gets.

Carl
My two cents....

Better to go with low timeframe divergence in the direction of the high timeframe trend. Could add a primitive filter to your table, e.g. is price higher now than a day ago, a week ago, a month ago?

Let's face it: the USD is on a rampage, with job figures buttressing that. Everyone thinks--and this is probably not far wrong--that eurozone is about to fall off a cliff. On the other side, the real economy = employment in the U.S. has been looking pretty good recently. 1) That means 1) real demand for USD assets on macro factors alone for quite some time = bullish USD, and 2) there's safe haven buying vs. eurozone's implosion. Two fundamentals favour the dollar.

Low TF divergence IMHO in direction of this = high timeframe trend is the better play.

Every single trend in this world is going to have huge divergence against it repeatedly on every timeframe all the time. That doesn't mean it's a good play. But divergence with the trend is great.

Remember also, prices were ranging this whole last month, or at least in the holiday season, when you were doing your system testing. So divergence in any direction then works.
  • #1,092
  • Jan 5, 2012 9:25am Jan 5, 2012 9:25am
Bit9ret,

could you please extrapolate whats the reason for divergance signal in high tf trend direction ? What you would get is to open position in trend direction anyway , but you migth do it without hidden divergence, am i wrong?
  • #1,093
  • Jan 5, 2012 9:54am Jan 5, 2012 9:54am
Quoting bit9ret
My two cents....

Better to go with low timeframe divergence in the direction of the high timeframe trend. Could add a primitive filter to your table, e.g. is price higher now than a day ago, a week ago, a month ago?

Let's face it: the USD is on a rampage, with job figures buttressing that. Everyone thinks--and this is probably not far wrong--that eurozone is about to fall off a cliff. On the other side, the real economy = employment in the U.S. has been looking pretty good recently. 1) That means 1) real demand for USD assets on macro...
I agree to some extent. But I don't think we are too worried about trends here. If you notice the way Forexcube trades, he likes the ranges. So now fractally speaking, there are ranges within trends. If I am not mistaken, that is what Forexcube is trying (successfully) to take advantage of. If there is a potential divergence shaping up in the 1-Hr timeframe, that portends to a 5-min or 1-min range. Which can be traded in and out of using the CCI.

So, the way I think about it is, divergences on higher timeframes means that momentum is slowing down, thus the potential to scalp the lower timeframes in those small ranges.

The complete divergence may fail, but hopefully in the lower timeframes, fractally speaking, you would be in and out of that momentum shift from strong to weak, then strong again. If momentum picks back up and the divergence is not born out in the higher timeframe, so be it.

I hope I explained that correctly, the way I think about how Forexcube is trading.

That is what the indicator is showing... potential divergences. Essentially a pause and maybe a reversal in momentum. We don't know for sure. The only reason I added the strength filter was to hopefully increase the probability that if a currency, as a basket of all major currencies is weak, you tip the probability on your side that a shift in momentum of a pair goes your way to the short side.

I'll let the user of the indicator worry if he wants to think about the trends.

The USDCHF divergences last night saw the pair ranging for quite a few hours, from 1700 GMT to 0730 GMT this morning. The 1-min CCI scalping machine that Forexcube is, would have had a good time scalping that pause in momentum. Unfortunately I can't stay up all night to do that because I have a full time job, so I missed out.

Carl
  • #1,094
  • Jan 5, 2012 10:35am Jan 5, 2012 10:35am
I don't want to speak in the name of Forexcube, but when you look at the graph of FxCube you should notice at what time his trade take place. 95% .... when the "market is sleeping" .
during low volatility CCI bootom or divergence are powerful but when the market is "moving" with higher volatility the reading of CCI is more difficult.
most of you here are trend follower .... dreaming to buy the low and sell the high... this is your everyday dream .... trying to catch the" homerun of the day" for 60 70 pips....
FxCube is doing exactly the oppposite , TP are 3 to 5 pips .....(>90% of his trades)
Brokers give leverage to destroy your account ... Fxcube is using leverage like a "JAPANESE SUMO" to grow his account ... just because he is trading "high winning rate pattern" during low volatility periods
so basically he turns disavantages into strenght.

so the conclusion should be
1. use TAYSAC System during low volatiliy period
2.use Taysac System during Ranging day .... day like today with oneway direction TAYSAC System could an expensive experience for beginners

Landsat
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #1,095
  • Jan 5, 2012 10:46am Jan 5, 2012 10:46am
Quoting fxloka
Bit9ret,

could you please extrapolate whats the reason for divergance signal in high tf trend direction ? What you would get is to open position in trend direction anyway , but you migth do it without hidden divergence, am i wrong?
If you're daytrading and you look for divergence on the low timeframe (say 5min bars) in the high timeframe trend direction (say hourly bars), you have a pretty good chance of entering near the end of the retrace against the high timeframe trend. The divergence will help catch the end of the short-term retrace. Just in time for the high timeframe trend to resume.

You could take half profits at the previous highest high of the trend (instead of entering there on divergence against the high timeframe trend, which is is a low reward:risk trade), then hope/expect there's going to be a new higher high. Then put a trailing stop on the rest. At least the whole trade (both positions) is breakeven at worst then.

Also if the retrace that you entered on in the 5min timeframe is actually the start (one never knows, as trend "following" is after the fact) of a 60min trend reversal against you, the price you entered is not going to damage you that badly when the 60min trend reverses. It's going to be not the far from the price your indicators (whatever your high timeframe trend indicator is) show that the 60 min trend reversed.
  • #1,096
  • Jan 5, 2012 11:15am Jan 5, 2012 11:15am
Quoting crodzilla
I hope I explained that correctly, the way I think about how Forexcube is trading.

....Unfortunately I can't stay up all night to do that because I have a full time job, so I missed out.

Carl
Yes, I understand. IMHO, this approach requires high 90%+ accuracy (I've seen 99% here ) for smallish wins, and swinging a huge number of lots to justify the 2-5 pip profits I've seen here. Unless one is Paul Rotter, etc. (http://www.trading-naked.com/paul_rotter.htm), the expectancy of this is questionable.

The problem is this: "****" happens all the time to everyone in the way price moves. Price by definition moves in a way that hurts the most people the most, most of the time. This is what creates the trends, often from panicked folks reversing/exiting as they are blown out of the water. Minor pip wins don't justify the typical risk of a 30-50 pip move against one from system failure, etc. Just wait for MT4 to go down and broker's phone system to be swamped when one has multiple lots (I've seen 50 repeatedly in demo here) in the market aiming for 3-5 pip profit and getting blown out by a breakout against you. It's curtains then.

Maybe one could pop in an overnight stop behind a divergence entry with the high timeframe trend, and see if the trend continues to the European session. If it's a valid high timeframe trend, the size of the wins (pips, dollars etc.) should exceed the losses from stops hit. The reward to risk is there.

Admittedly, the "trends" in Asian session ain't great, if at all, and are often knocked for a loop when London opens. So Asian trend might have to the HIGH TF one, say 4-hour bars. With the high TF trend, the stop can be put it on divergence at the end of a retrace, and one can leave the terminal and go away.

Just my two cents again.
  • #1,097
  • Jan 5, 2012 11:21am Jan 5, 2012 11:21am
Quoting landsat
I don't want to speak in the name of Forexcube, but when you look at the graph of FxCube you should notice at what time his trade take place. 95% .... when the "market is sleeping" .
during low volatility CCI bootom or divergence are powerful but when the market is "moving" with higher volatility the reading of CCI is more difficult.
most of you here are trend follower .... dreaming to buy the low and sell the high... this is your everyday dream .... trying to catch the" homerun of the day" for 60 70 pips....
FxCube is doing exactly the...

I couldn't disagree (good advice ), except for one thing. Trend traders try to catch the middle of moves. It's divergence traders who try to catch the HI and the LO.

Divergence with the trend gives you the best of both worlds: the chance to enter near the end of a retrace at least with a stop fairly nearby, and to gain from the higher odds and reward of the trend. That's my point.

I argue it's not either/or, but should be both/and....

Technical/system failure when swinging a high number of lots is a BIG risk. It's tempting fate, if you're not on a demo.
  • #1,098
  • Jan 5, 2012 11:51am Jan 5, 2012 11:51am
Bit9ret,

sound advices by you, thanks
If we take today's movement, purely down trend, could you for example spot entry points by your rule and in what LO tf what you sugest ? may attach screenshots.
I tried to spot myself, seems VERY rare
  • #1,099
  • Jan 5, 2012 12:02pm Jan 5, 2012 12:02pm
I'd like to know FxCubes opinion on the "Technical/system failure when swinging a high number of lots"

He still has a remarkable record on profits...

Best regards
Best Regards!
  • #1,100
  • Jan 5, 2012 2:42pm Jan 5, 2012 2:42pm
Added Combo alarm. And a couple of arrow bug fixes.

A combo alarm, if enabled will go off if there is a CCI divergence and corresponding strength divergence for both currencies of the pair.

Carl
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