The Really Useless Thread | Page 2265 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #45,281
  • Jan 4, 2012 10:18pm Jan 4, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
bbl, gl, PTL..
with a new low i target 1.0812... thats a hell of a move. and many times we pullback before a move after a b/o... atm the pullback is about 220 pips.. this usually isn't enough for such a big move.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,282
  • Jan 4, 2012 10:54pm Jan 4, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
with a new low i target 1.0812... thats a hell of a move. and many times we pullback before a move after a b/o... atm the pullback is about 220 pips.. this usually isn't enough for such a big move.
area i got on the way to parity

biguns

2460/2502 area

2000/2033 area

the Gatekeeper to 1.0000 is 1.1650

if we breech that its a damn freefall
  • #45,283
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:10pm Jan 4, 2012 11:10pm
Quoting Wulfgar
area i got on the way to parity

biguns

2460/2502 area

2000/2033 area

the Gatekeeper to 1.0000 is 1.1650

if we breech that its a damn freefall
i dont disagree. but more times then not we retrace after the break. we did this time +-220 pips.. that usually isnt enough % wise on a big move. oil has my head fu.. it indicates higher. the euro should follow.. its gonna do what it does. i am bearish. but the things mentioned makes me skeptical atm. also 2909 wasn't as meaningful the first time we crossed as it is today. it and 2962 are future stronger #s then they show atm... we are between them atm..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,284
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:21pm Jan 4, 2012 11:21pm
as soon as everyone jumps on the bandwagon and says yay! euro to 1.000 then watch out it will be a sqeeze from hell to bring the pain to the groopies...

point is there is still just a ton of uncertainty so take what she will give ya its not just gonna go to 1.00 without causing euro haters to loose their minds on the way dow
  • #45,285
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:22pm Jan 4, 2012 11:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
i dont disagree. but more times then not we retrace after the break. we did this time +-220 pips.. that usually isnt enough % wise on a big move. oil has my head fu.. it indicates higher. the euro should follow.. its gonna do what it does. i am bearish. but the things mentioned makes me skeptical atm. also 2909 wasn't as meaningful the first time we crossed as it is today. it and 2962 are future stronger #s then they show atm... we are between them atm..
it def is interesting how we really are pretty due for a decent retrace like u are insinuating from a PA and larger TF perspective... but it just seems like we keep getting dead cat bounces comparitively with the endless black hole of horrid news out of europe feeding its demise... frankly i dont see how this thing hasnt cracked 2008 style and fallin like a brinck sub 1.2 already.... its like jesus himself is holding the EU up.... amazing
  • #45,286
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:31pm Jan 4, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting Wulfgar
.... its like jesus himself is holding the EU up.... amazing
maybe, or maybe jeebus is holding the usd down, since the godless liberals took prayer out of the schools and spread their gay agenda across the airwaves.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #45,287
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:35pm Jan 4, 2012 11:35pm
Morning all.

Catching up with charts across the board so a bit "slow" and "blur" outlook here until I get in sync after the long Holiday.

In the Euro same macro view since the rate cut
Quoting sisse
.... Rate cut unlock a whole new set of levels for next quarter .......

1.237x (floor) 1.271x (key) 1.298x (first target) new weekly FA Support levels highlighted in the charts..but that's for later so just the heads up for next quarter.

sisse
On a more short term view. Price testing weekly S 1.288x but is a weak one (inside bars) and the monthly/weekly S 1.271x (Key) is v close. Intraday and weekly range reaching exhaustion levels and in S so looking for a pullback to 1.313x in daily for considering shorts. A clean break without retrace will only extend my time on the sidelines....

GL all today and this year...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #45,288
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:37pm Jan 4, 2012 11:37pm
Quoting fxjawn
as soon as everyone jumps on the bandwagon and says yay! euro to 1.000 then watch out it will be a sqeeze from hell to bring the pain to the groopies...

point is there is still just a ton of uncertainty so take what she will give ya its not just gonna go to 1.00 without causing euro haters to loose their minds on the way dow
thats true bro but nothing is going to stop true deflation in the US ... its like japan... everyone jumped on the UJ after it broke 120 back in the day and it just kept being crushed...

the EU COULD drop to parity... but it will def be a bumpy ass ride nomatter how u slice it...
  • #45,289
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:37pm Jan 4, 2012 11:37pm
Quoting Wulfgar
it def is interesting how we really are pretty due for a decent retrace like u are insinuating from a PA and larger TF perspective... but it just seems like we keep getting dead cat bounces comparitively with the endless black hole of horrid news out of europe feeding its demise... frankly i dont see how this thing hasnt cracked 2008 style and fallin like a brinck sub 1.2 already.... its like jesus himself is holding the EU up.... amazing
e banks are selling assets still. when they do to foreigners, the foreign currency is converted to euros. causing a buy and a euro demand. oil going up also weakens the usd. it weakens it as we can see st.. it also raises the deficit in the usd comparably to when oil is cheaper. since we import oil it hurts the usd. since we import cheap crap from china made from/packaged with oil made plastics. it just adds more. a small percentage in the rise in oil adds a greater amount to the usd weakness. because % wise the u.s. imports more.

it usually but not always works against the yen when oil rises also.. since they import 100% of their oil.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,290
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:39pm Jan 4, 2012 11:39pm
Quoting The Fool
maybe, or maybe jeebus is holding the usd down, since the godless liberals took prayer out of the schools and spread their gay agenda across the airwaves.
jeebus haites teh liberals and the geigh agendas

what r u seein in the crap brother? U jumpin on the bear bandwagon at all?
  • #45,291
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:41pm Jan 4, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting sisse
Morning all.

Catching up with charts across the board so a bit "slow" and "blur" outlook here until I get in sync after the long Holiday.

In the Euro same macro view since the rate cut

On a more short term view. Price testing weekly S 1.288x but is a weak one (inside bars) and the monthly/weekly S 1.271x (Key) is v close. Intraday and weekly range reaching exhaustion levels and in S so looking for a pullback to 1.313x in daily for considering shorts. A clean break without retrace will only extend my time on the sidelines....

GL all today...

sisse!

hope u had a good vacation my friend

nice to seeyou back.... we got the french bond issuance today... should be a definate mover....
  • #45,292
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:45pm Jan 4, 2012 11:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
e banks are selling assets still. when they do to foreigners, the foreign currency is converted to euros. causing a buy and a euro demand. oil going up also weakens the usd. it weakens it as we can see st.. it also raises the deficit in the usd comparably to when oil is cheaper. since we import oil it hurts the usd. since we import cheap crap from china made from/packaged with oil made plastics. it just adds more. a small percentage in the rise in oil adds a greater amount to the usd weakness. because % wise the u.s. imports more.

it usually but...
well that is the big reason these bond auctions are such big news.... we are seeing the Euro tumble every time an auction fails to attract much foreign demand of the yields rise to literally unmanageable levels

so its a battle of waning foreign interest in Euro asset sales vs the market pricing in massive scale QE by the ECB and their balance sheet just keeps growing and growing to try and back ever rising soverign yields that are unsustainable...


also the oil moves are going to be radical for sure since the Iran thing is heating up... def watching how they manage the straits of hormuz(sp?)...
  • #45,293
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:51pm Jan 4, 2012 11:51pm
Quoting Wulfgar
what r u seein in the crap brother? U jumpin on the bear bandwagon at all?
I'm really just gettin back on the horse today, scalped a few pips. Have not read any finance news since b4 xmas. i think there's a summit coming soon, or an invasion, maybe an alien papal abduction, need a clue somehow. I watched the Secret Circle marathon on CW all week, saw the republikkkans suckin up to the Ioway homeland, boy I cant wait till we get a godly man in the White House what will nuke all the gay whales and take back our oyul from the muzzies, then we'll see a strong doller bahgawd

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #45,294
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:53pm Jan 4, 2012 11:53pm
Quoting Wulfgar
sisse!

hope u had a good vacation my friend

nice to seeyou back.... we got the french bond issuance today... should be a definate mover....
Thanks mate, I did have a great time out of the screens.... I hope you had a good one too.

Well yes with the auction but ADP/NFP rules and will mark the beginning of the trading year in my books.

On the bond side. This link will be handy, especially until the Key and big March auctions ....http://europa.eu/efc/sub_committee/e...9/index_en.htm

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #45,295
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:55pm Jan 4, 2012 11:55pm
one more I note is 3004, the mid from tuesday, which has been the swing high thus far, yest/mid is 2984ish...

@ Sisse, welcome back brother...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart3.gif Size: 15 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #45,296
  • Jan 4, 2012 11:56pm Jan 4, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting Wulfgar
well that is the big reason these bond auctions are such big news.... we are seeing the Euro tumble every time an auction fails to attract much foreign demand of the yields rise to literally unmanageable levels

so its a battle of waning foreign interest in Euro asset sales vs the market pricing in massive scale QE by the ECB and their balance sheet just keeps growing and growing to try and back ever rising soverign yields that are unsustainable...


also the oil moves are going to be radical for sure since the Iran thing is heating up... def watching...
if it gets above 62 .. she may run some.. she just targeted 59
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,297
  • Jan 5, 2012 12:00am Jan 5, 2012 12:00am
hold on

is sisse male?
and chicky?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #45,298
  • Jan 5, 2012 12:02am Jan 5, 2012 12:02am
Quoting gatorinla
hold on

is sisse male?
and chicky?
yes both boi's

u ever heard of that guy doogie howser?
  • #45,299
  • Jan 5, 2012 12:03am Jan 5, 2012 12:03am
Quoting sisse
Thanks mate, I did have a great time out of the screens.... I hope you had a good one too.

Well yes with the auction but ADP/NFP rules and will mark the beginning of the trading year in my books.

On the bond side. This link will be handy, especially until the Key and big March auctions ....http://europa.eu/efc/sub_committee/e...9/index_en.htm

sisse
great link! thanks sisse!

and u r right about the NFPs... we could see some serious action from the results on that sucker
  • #45,300
  • Jan 5, 2012 12:07am Jan 5, 2012 12:07am
Quoting Wulfgar
great link! thanks sisse!
ditto, i been lookin for something like that
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
7 traders viewing now